Kenpom: Offense First
- Thread starter RUsojo
- Start date
What's your point? How was SD ST's btw? Don't think Pike knows he needs to score more? Have you seen the recruits on their way? the worm is turning...have patience
They’re #3 on offense and #7 on defense lmao. “Offense first” lmao
Yeah, a silly point to make with those numbers.
If you reversed those, would it matter? I think not.
And even better, actually the best is to be very good at BOTH, like Uconn was.
You've been wrong a thousand times, congrats.
By the way, you want to know why the top offensive teams are stronger than the top defensive teams? The range is larger.
In 2023,
Adj O ranges from #363 LIU at 86.9 to #1 Gonzaga at 122.3, a range of 35.4 per 100
Adj D range from #363 Houston Christian at 120.7 to #1 Tennessee at 87.5, a range of 33.2 per 100
In 2022, a range of 41.7 for offense, 34.3 for defense
In 2021, a range of 47 for offense, 34.3 for defense
There is a little bit more room for excellence on offense than there is on defense. So the #3 offense or whatever is going to be more above average than the #3 defense.
This implies that gaining a SPOT on offense is more valuable than on defense. It DOES NOT IMPLY that gaining a POINT on offense is more valuable than on defense.
In 2023,
Adj O ranges from #363 LIU at 86.9 to #1 Gonzaga at 122.3, a range of 35.4 per 100
Adj D range from #363 Houston Christian at 120.7 to #1 Tennessee at 87.5, a range of 33.2 per 100
In 2022, a range of 41.7 for offense, 34.3 for defense
In 2021, a range of 47 for offense, 34.3 for defense
There is a little bit more room for excellence on offense than there is on defense. So the #3 offense or whatever is going to be more above average than the #3 defense.
This implies that gaining a SPOT on offense is more valuable than on defense. It DOES NOT IMPLY that gaining a POINT on offense is more valuable than on defense.
Sort by offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency in 2023 and then come back and we can talk. We are seeing a different game if you don't think DEFENSE had everything to do with what went down over most of the last 15 NCAA games.
AND often times hire the right HIT MEN.
UCONN as a 4 seed wore their home jersey 5 out of 6 games.
Arkansas takes out Kansas
Gonzaga takes out UCLA
Miami takes out Houston and Texas
Virginia takes out Furman for SDSU
SDSU takes out Alabama
FDU takes out Purdue for FAU
FAU takes out UT and KSU for SDSU
The top 10 offensive teams were:
1. Gonzaga - Elite Eight
2. Baylor - R32
3. Connecticut - CHAMPS
4. Iowa - R64
5. Toledo - NIT First Round
6. Miami FL - Final Four
7. Marquette - R32
8. Xavier - Sweet Sixteen
9. Missouri - R32
10. Arizona - R64
The top 10 defensive teams were:
1. Tennessee - Sweet Sixteen
2. UCLA - Sweet Sixteen
3. Alabama - Sweet Sixteen
4. San Diego St. - Finals
5. Houston - Sweet Sixteen
6. Rutgers - NIT First Round
7. Connecticut - CHAMPS
8. Iowa St. - R64
9. Mississippi St. - R68
10. Saint Mary's - R32
1. Gonzaga - Elite Eight
2. Baylor - R32
3. Connecticut - CHAMPS
4. Iowa - R64
5. Toledo - NIT First Round
6. Miami FL - Final Four
7. Marquette - R32
8. Xavier - Sweet Sixteen
9. Missouri - R32
10. Arizona - R64
The top 10 defensive teams were:
1. Tennessee - Sweet Sixteen
2. UCLA - Sweet Sixteen
3. Alabama - Sweet Sixteen
4. San Diego St. - Finals
5. Houston - Sweet Sixteen
6. Rutgers - NIT First Round
7. Connecticut - CHAMPS
8. Iowa St. - R64
9. Mississippi St. - R68
10. Saint Mary's - R32
To summarize, top 10 offenses:
1 champs
1 final four
1 elite eight
1 sweet sixteen
3 r32
2 r64
1 missed tourney
top 10 defenses:
1 champs
1 finals
4 sweet sixteen
1 r32
1 r64
1 r68
1 missed tourney
*shrug*
1 champs
1 final four
1 elite eight
1 sweet sixteen
3 r32
2 r64
1 missed tourney
top 10 defenses:
1 champs
1 finals
4 sweet sixteen
1 r32
1 r64
1 r68
1 missed tourney
*shrug*
Kenpom overall top 10:
1. Connecticut - CHAMPS
2. Houston - Sweet Sixteen
3. UCLA - Sweet Sixteen
4. Alabama - Sweet Sixteen
5. Texas - Elight Eight
6. Tennessee - Sweet Sixteen
7. Purdue - R64
8. Gonzaga - Elight Eight
9. Kansas - R32
10. Marquette - R32
1 champs
2 elite eight
4 sweet sixteen
2 r32
1 r64
The fact that it doesn't really look all that different from the other two lists is a testament to how weird this tournament was lol.
What I believe the OP is passive aggressively trying to say is he wants more offense because he believes good offense beats good defense. It’s way more complicated than that and the numbers don’t really indicate that either. The ncaa tournament is all about match ups and Great teams play both ways. Rutgers needs 1-2 shooters and 1-2 shot makers on this team (they can be both). I’m hopeful that they have/are adding them. UConn has 2-3 big time shooters, a guard who can get to the rim and 2 bigs that can rebound and score. They were also playing their best at the right time. Mid season they did not look very good. It all came together for them but the roster was very good. Danny hit the lottery but deserves credit for putting it together.
Last edited:
Thanks - wow. Is there an easy way to do OFF, DEF and Combo for last 10 years
I wonder on NBA draft picks by round too. This year seemed particularly off for the best NBA prospects advancing
I'm doing it manually so I'll probably tap out before 10 years.. but I'll do a few more.
Disclaimer: This uses Bart rankings instead of kenpom because it's easier to gather the data as he lists tournament finish on his main page. Should be very similar.
This covers 10 years but only 9 tournaments because of the cancellation of 2020.
Top 10 offenses:
8 CHAMPS
3 Finals
9 Final Four
14 Elite Eight
20 Sweet Sixteen
15 R32
16 R64
3 R68
2 Missed Tournament
Top 10 defenses:
5 CHAMPS
4 Finals
3 Final Four
16 Elite Eight
19 Sweet Sixteen
13 R32
15 R64
15 Missed Tournament
Top 10 overall:
8 CHAMPS
6 Finals
9 Final Four
21 Elite Eight
21 Sweet Sixteen
18 R32
7 R64
-----
Viewed differently, in cumulative sense:
Of the 90 top 10 offenses:
88 (98%) made the tournament
85 (94%) made the R64
69 (77%) made the R32
54 (60%) made the Sweet Sixteen
34 (38%) made the Elite Eight
20 (22%) made the Final Four
11 (12%) made the Finals
8 (9%) won the Championship
Of the 90 top 10 defenses:
75 (83%) made the tournament
75 (83%) made the R64
60 (67%) made the R32
47 (52%) made the Sweet Sixteen
28 (31%) made the Elite Eight
12 (13%) made the Final Four
9 (10%) made the Finals
5 (6%) won the Championship
Of the 90 top 10 overalls:
90 (100%) made the tournament
90 (100%) made the R64
83 (92%) made the R32
65 (72%) made the Sweet Sixteen
44 (49%) made the Elite Eight
23 (26%) made the Final Four
14 (16%) made the Finals
8 (9%) won the Championship
-----
At first glance this seems to support the offense over defense argument, but what it really shows is that the great offensive teams tend to be very good defensively as well, much less so than vice versa. There are more teams that look like Rutgers than there are the opposite.
The top 10 offenses over the last 10 years had an average defense ranking of 57.69
The top 10 defenses over the last 10 years had an average offense ranking of 70.11
This covers 10 years but only 9 tournaments because of the cancellation of 2020.
Top 10 offenses:
8 CHAMPS
3 Finals
9 Final Four
14 Elite Eight
20 Sweet Sixteen
15 R32
16 R64
3 R68
2 Missed Tournament
Top 10 defenses:
5 CHAMPS
4 Finals
3 Final Four
16 Elite Eight
19 Sweet Sixteen
13 R32
15 R64
15 Missed Tournament
Top 10 overall:
8 CHAMPS
6 Finals
9 Final Four
21 Elite Eight
21 Sweet Sixteen
18 R32
7 R64
-----
Viewed differently, in cumulative sense:
Of the 90 top 10 offenses:
88 (98%) made the tournament
85 (94%) made the R64
69 (77%) made the R32
54 (60%) made the Sweet Sixteen
34 (38%) made the Elite Eight
20 (22%) made the Final Four
11 (12%) made the Finals
8 (9%) won the Championship
Of the 90 top 10 defenses:
75 (83%) made the tournament
75 (83%) made the R64
60 (67%) made the R32
47 (52%) made the Sweet Sixteen
28 (31%) made the Elite Eight
12 (13%) made the Final Four
9 (10%) made the Finals
5 (6%) won the Championship
Of the 90 top 10 overalls:
90 (100%) made the tournament
90 (100%) made the R64
83 (92%) made the R32
65 (72%) made the Sweet Sixteen
44 (49%) made the Elite Eight
23 (26%) made the Final Four
14 (16%) made the Finals
8 (9%) won the Championship
-----
At first glance this seems to support the offense over defense argument, but what it really shows is that the great offensive teams tend to be very good defensively as well, much less so than vice versa. There are more teams that look like Rutgers than there are the opposite.
The top 10 offenses over the last 10 years had an average defense ranking of 57.69
The top 10 defenses over the last 10 years had an average offense ranking of 70.11
There is nothing passive about it. We cannot continue to prioritize defense OVER offense. Defense should still be of paramount importance. But a philisophical adjustment is needed.
This has been stated aggressively aggressive many times. Yet people still shout it down. Here is more proof.
You don't particularly understand what we "prioritize" or what the data is telling you. If you think there is some magical quality to being better on offense than defense then you are dumber than I thought. If UConn's defense improved until it was better than their offense.. would that make them.. LESS likely to win a championship in your mind?
How do you people not understand arithmetic (scoring margin = points scored - points allowed). Do you see a multiplier on the points scored there? Is there some non-linear factor??
Okay.
What about the fact that UConn was #3 on offense and #7 on defense instead of #3 on offense and #2 on defense made them more likely to win the national championship?
Bro take your head out of your gd math book and recognize our coach IS prioritizing ONE SIDE OF THE BALL OVER ANOTHER. He has said it 100x in press conferences and post game pressers.
AGAIN, defense is PARAMOUNT. But we need to emphasize the offense too! In fact it needs to be emphasized more.
Rank these teams from best to worst (assume all play at the same tempo):
A: Off Eff 100, Def Eff 100
B: Off Eff 110, Def Eff 111
C: Off Eff 90, Def Eff 89
You are not understanding you are trying to prove out a straw man. Take your hijack elsewhere.
C is the least likely to win a title.
LOL NO
Whenever anyone tries to dig into EXACTLY what is meant by any of these stupid posts it's just "if we were better at offense we'd be better". Yeah, no shit, you solved basketball congrats.
No one gets it because it's wrong. You're wrong. The right answer to the question is C > A > B and you don't understand that because you can't subtract.
Offense first and defense first are both wrong, except as tiebreakers when they don't matter.
If Pike has a way to make us score 10 more points per game and give up 9 more, he should do it.
If he has a way to make us score 9 fewer points per game and give up 10 fewer, he should do it.
If he has a way to make us score 10 more points per game and give up 11 more, he should not do it.
This is not "head in a math book" it's literally just you win games when your (points scored - points allowed) is as large as possible.
If Pike has a way to make us score 10 more points per game and give up 9 more, he should do it.
If he has a way to make us score 9 fewer points per game and give up 10 fewer, he should do it.
If he has a way to make us score 10 more points per game and give up 11 more, he should not do it.
This is not "head in a math book" it's literally just you win games when your (points scored - points allowed) is as large as possible.
Watching the team last year the thing that sticks out to me is that playing elite defense every game is nearly impossible with little margin for error. We strive to be elite defensively but it can't be absolutely necessary to win.
Going from 151 in offensive efficiency to significantly better would be much easier.
There was some very low-hanging fruit we missed out on.
Hopefully we pick that low hanging stuff and more next season.
Losing Caleb and replacing him with Griffiths makes this even more necessary and doable.
Going from 151 in offensive efficiency to significantly better would be much easier.
There was some very low-hanging fruit we missed out on.
Hopefully we pick that low hanging stuff and more next season.
Losing Caleb and replacing him with Griffiths makes this even more necessary and doable.
Better offensive players are more likely to win. That’s truly shocking
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
-
-
Football GAMEDAY THREAD: Rutgers Football versus Michigan State
- Latest: RUfanSinceAnderson
-