Looking at Depth for 2018 & 2019

[RUChoppin]

With the commitment of Mulcahy, the roster for the next two seasons is nearly complete.

2018-19:
4 Guards: Kiss (RS So), Baker (So), Mathis (Fr), McConnell (Fr)
2 Wings: Thiam (Jr), Harper (Fr)
5 Bigs: Doorson (5th), Omoruyi (Jr), Carter (Jr), Doucoure (So), Johnson (RS Fr)
1 available ship
1 redshirt (Young)

This season, Baker is going to be leaned on to take a lot of the responsibilities at the point, backed up by freshman McConnell. Mathis will likely get the lion's share at shooting guard. Really hoping we can finish over .500 with this young roster and set the stage for the following year, where we'll return almost the whole team and add Mulcahy/Young to the mix.

2019-20
6 Guards: Young (RS Jr), Kiss (RS Jr), Baker (Jr), Mathis (So), McConnell (So), Mulcahy (Fr)
2 Wings: Thiam (Sr), Harper (So)
4 Bigs: Omoruyi (Sr), Carter (Sr), Doucoure (Jr), Johnson (RS So)
1 available ship

The following year, I'd imagine Baker will see most of his minutes off the ball, as Mulcahy/Young/McConnell compete to see who controls the point. That may put the squeeze on Mathis/Kiss a bit, and push us to more 3 and 4 guard sets. This will be a much more experienced roster with more upperclassmen than we've seen in a long time, and hopefully is one that takes us back to the postseason.

The question is what to do with that available ship? If it goes to a strong wing player like Hyatt or Massoud, we're going to be very light on bigs as we go into 2020-21. (Of course that's barring transfers, which may also happen if playing time isn't there)

2020-21
6 Guards: Young (RS Sr), Kiss (RS Sr), Baker (Sr), Mathis (Jr), McConnell (Jr), Mulcahy (So)
1 Wing: Harper (Jr)
2 Bigs: Doucoure (Sr), Johnson (RS Jr)
4 available ships

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I'll go out on a limb and say the chances that all 8 of your '19-'20 guards + wings are in the program are less than 25%.

 

[dkostus]

Yeah, given that I'd lije to see a big man taken with the second ship for 2019. This way you have at least 3 non-freshman bigs the year that Geo/Young/Kiss/Doucoure are seniors, which could be a huge year for the program.

I get why people want Hyatt/Massoud, but that guy may already be here in the form of Harper.

Take a big in 2019, then you have 3 schollies to play with that next year.

Although Luke Nathan could factor in for big man depth at some point I'd think.

 

[RUChoppin]

I'll go out on a limb and say the chances that all 8 of your '19-'20 guards + wings are in the program are less than 25%.

Yes - as I said, that's all barring transfers. Competition will sort out who gets the minutes, and the 1-2 at the bottom of that list will have a decision to make. Still, I really think we need a big to come in as part of the 2019 class somehow. I would absolutely not say no to Hyatt/Massoud coming here - but we're going to need to replenish bigs at some point, or in 2020 we'll either be playing small ball most of the time or playing with a bunch of foul-prone freshman bigs.

 

[SJScarlet]

I'll go out on a limb and say the chances that all 8 of your '19-'20 guards + wings are in the program are less than 25%.

I don't think anyone transfers. If you look at each guy's individual situation it's hard to imagine who it would be. Kiss would lose a year of eligibility if he transfers. McConnell will most likely play a lot this year (less if we bring in a grad transfer point), so it's not like he's going to be dissatisfied heading into 2019. Baker ain't transferring, Mathis ain't transferring, Young isn't going anywhere after sitting out a year. Harper isn't going anywhere. Thiam? He'll be starting as a senior.

 

[dkostus]

Think about the roster turnover we've had the last 3 seasons. If no one transfers after next year, and we lose only Doorson, and bring in Mulcahy +1, then the 19-20 season will be the most continuity and experience this program has seen in a long time. And if all 4 of those guys that will be seniors in 20-21(5 with Nathan) are still here then, it is hard not to think something great could happen.

 

[RUChoppin]

I'd think it's more going from 2019-20 into 2020-21 that we might see transfers. It's possible Kiss opts for a grad year somewhere else, for instance, or someone like McConnell ends up down the depth chart and looking at his options. Not saying they will - but looking at a glut of guards in 2020-21, it might be the time the depth start begins shaking out a bit.

The chance that no one will transfer after the next two seasons is very small. The last time we've gone two seasons in a row without someone transferring was 2001-03, I think. And only two other seasons since then have we had no transfers.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don't think anyone transfers. If you look at each guy's individual situation it's hard to imagine who it would be. Kiss would lose a year of eligibility if he transfers. McConnell will most likely play a lot this year (less if we bring in a grad transfer point), so it's not like he's going to be dissatisfied heading into 2019. Baker ain't transferring, Mathis ain't transferring, Young isn't going anywhere after sitting out a year. Harper isn't going anywhere. Thiam? He'll be starting as a senior.

Don't want to speculate all that much on who. There are 8 players on that list. In my eyes 1 of the 8 has proven himself to play in B1G. That leaves 4 who have ZERO experience, 1 that has played 1 year at a low conference, 1 transferring from Texas, and Issa. Going 5 out of 7 from that bunch would be successful in my eyes.

 

[SJScarlet]

Don't want to speculate all that much on who. There are 8 players on that list. In my eyes 1 of the 8 has proven himself to play in B1G. That leaves 4 who have ZERO experience, 1 that has played 1 year at a low conference, 1 transferring from Texas, and Issa. Going 5 out of 7 from that bunch would be successful in my eyes.

Well there's how well they play, then there is whether any decide to leave the program based on their situation. I tried to paint a picture that it won't make sense for any of them. This past year, you could predict Bullock and Mensah departures a mile away. I agree with Choppin that a departure is more likely heading into 20-21 season.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If the number is 130 minutes (120+10 spill over minutes at 4). If 3 starters are at 30 that leaves 40 minutes for 5 guys.

Reality is 4 guys get locked in to decent minutes and a battle ensues for 10-15 minutes left. Realisticly 6 of the 8 are in the rotation at a time. You can debate who those 6 are. I have locked ONLY Baker in as 1 of those 6. I can't LOCK in any of the other 7.

 

[dkostus]

If the number is 130 minutes (120+10 spill over minutes at 4). If 3 starters are at 30 that leaves 40 minutes for 5 guys.

Reality is 4 guys get locked in to decent minutes and a battle ensues for 10-15 minutes left. Realisticly 6 of the 8 are in the rotation at a time. You can debate who those 6 are. I have locked ONLY Baker in as 1 of those 6. I can't LOCK in any of the other 7.

The only guys that averaged 30+ last year were Corey and Geo, and they both looked worn out at times. Issa averaged 29/mpg (looked pretty fresh despite great D, honestly) but nobody else was over 25/mpg. If we have great depth, why would we play three guys 30/mpg? maybe play your top 2 guards 28, mpg, keep them fresh, and the third guy 25... although Mike Williams only averaged 23/mpg last year.

That's only an extra 10 minutes or so, but it means a lot both in keeping guys fresh, and in getting other guys time. I also think Pikiell is recruiting a certain type of kid here that may be more willing to contribute what he can and wait for a spot to open up, but I could be being naive about that.

I am slightly concerned about the reaction from Young and his family if he isn't immediately a major part of the rotation after sitting a year. Not saying it will be bad, but if it is, that isn't great for chemistry.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Guys averaging 29 MPG often will average 33-34 MPG in close/tight games. Throw out the blowouts and Corey and Geo played a LOT of minutes.

Depth is nice. What is nicer is to have 2-4 guys distance themselves from the rest and OPTIMALLY get 32 MPTG (T for tight).

Just think if 8 guys are getting 16 minutes that probably isn't good...this isn't Kentucky.

 

[RUChoppin]

I can't see anyone transferring outbound of this season, to be honest. It's possible if someone has a personal situation, or really struggles at this level - but I'd imagine that the 2019-20 team is pretty much as expected above.

Going into 2020-21, though, there are a bunch of guys who could conceivably be looking at where their minutes will be coming from. Kiss and Young will both be moving into their 5th year, and McConnell/Mathis/Harper will all have 3 years left to play 2... if any of those five see limited burn in 2019-20, they might think about options. Way too many variables this far out - we haven't seen any of these guys play. Hell, Baker might blossom into an all-conference player and test the NBA waters after his junior year.

It'd be unlikely that we go into 2020-21 without a single player departing, especially given how many guys we'll have fighting for time at guard.

 

[kcg88]

I have no idea about Jacob Young's academics, but he's done two years at Texas. He's sit one to play two here, but if he completes his studies in four years he'd be eligible to grad transfer. Something to keep in mind.

 

[RUChoppin]

I have no idea about Jacob Young's academics, but he's done two years at Texas. He's sit one to play two here, but if he completes his studies in four years he'd be eligible to grad transfer. Something to keep in mind.

Same with Kiss. Both will be 5th year guys going into 2020-21. If they excel here, they'll be great experienced assets... if they slip down the depth chart, they might look to take a grad year somewhere else without having to sit.

 

[Dpgru]

Personally, I want to see this team play next year and I will let Pike and Co worry about the following seasons. I am excited about the potential this team has and I think this could be the best team we have had in a while so I will take a step back and hopefully enjoy it one season at a time. If we were Duke and we were all worried about how to keep the dynasty going then future seasons would be a concern. Right now, I will be happy with next year.

 

[RUChoppin]

Personally, I want to see this team play next year and I will let Pike and Co worry about the following seasons. I am excited about the potential this team has and I think this could be the best team we have had in a while so I will take a step back and hopefully enjoy it one season at a time. If we were Duke and we were all worried about how to keep the dynasty going then future seasons would be a concern. Right now, I will be happy with next year.

Next year is looking good, and hopefully is a stepping stone year for us with a bunch of younger guys who will almost all return the following season.

It's a young squad, with a lot of new faces - returning players who accounted for just 51% of minutes last year.

Excited to see:
- Baker's growth from last year, to see how he can improve on his game and step into more of a leadership role.
- Omoruyi and Thiam as upperclassmen, and hopefully adding more tools to their arsenal.
- A healthy Doorson in the middle, and to see what sort of progress Doucoure makes in the off season.
- How well the new faces (Kiss, Johnson, Mathis, McConnell, Harper) integrate
- How Pike works the rotations, and what sort of offense/defense we'll see with the new group

It's a tougher road next year than this year, but I'm hoping to crack the .500 overall record mark for the first time since 2005-06 (also the last time we saw more than 6 conference wins).

Not expecting the post season this year, but definitely looking to see a strong foundation laid down to build upon.

 

[dkostus]

I bet even Pike won't know what this team and the minute distribution for next year will look like until he gets these kids all in a gym together for a few weeks.

 

[RickB113]

Well there's how well they play, then there is whether any decide to leave the program based on their situation. I tried to paint a picture that it won't make sense for any of them. This past year, you could predict Bullock and Mensah departures a mile away. I agree with Choppin that a departure is more likely heading into 20-21 season.

How did it make sense for Mensah? If you know you are not going to play and still want to play you are inclined to transfer even if you have to give up a year of eligibility. Giving up one year is better than sitting the bench for the rest of your career. I am not speculating on any one player. Just saying if you are not playing, know you are most likely not going to play again for said school, you are most likely going to transfer regardless of what it costs eligibility wise.

 

[SJScarlet]

How did it make sense for Mensah? If you know you are not going to play and still want to play you are inclined to transfer even if you have to give up a year of eligibility. Giving up one year is better than sitting the bench for the rest of your career. I am not speculating on any one player. Just saying if you are not playing, know you are most likely not going to play again for said school, you are most likely going to transfer regardless of what it costs eligibility wise.

Mensah from what I recall is most likely done with basketball, or will transfer down a level, thus no sitout year. Peter Kiss meanwhile scored like 19 on Gonzaga and 18 on Seton Hall as a true freshman, he's not going to Division 2.

 

[dkostus]

How did it make sense for Mensah? If you know you are not going to play and still want to play you are inclined to transfer even if you have to give up a year of eligibility. Giving up one year is better than sitting the bench for the rest of your career. I am not speculating on any one player. Just saying if you are not playing, know you are most likely not going to play again for said school, you are most likely going to transfer regardless of what it costs eligibility wise.

Really depends on what year you are. Other schools have kids sit the first two years and become contributors or even stars later on. Seems normal in the B1G. Here we expect everyone will transfer rather than earn the time by developing and getting better... for whatever reason. If you mean upperclassmen, then I agree with you.

 

[RickB113]

Mensah from what I recall is most likely done with basketball, or will transfer down a level, thus no sitout year. Peter Kiss meanwhile scored like 19 on Gonzaga and 18 on Seton Hall as a true freshman, he's not going to Division 2.

Doesn’t matter. If you are not playing and not looking like you are going to play then you will figure out a way to transfer if you still want to play. Bottom line.

 

[RickB113]

Really depends on what year you are. Other schools have kids sit the first two years and become contributors or even stars later on. Seems normal in the B1G. Here we expect everyone will transfer rather than earn the time by developing and getting better... for whatever reason. If you mean upperclassmen, then I agree with you.

I did mean upperclassman for the most part.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Wow...looking at 18-19 turned into worrying about and planning for 2022.

Best I can do or want to do is think about this year and who's coming in 2019.

 

[RutgHoops]

In '17-'18: 9 players played 12+ minutes per game. 11 players played 6.7+ minutes per game (Souf and Bullock)
In 16-'17: 9 players played 12+ minutes per game. 11 players played 8.3+ minutes per game (Diallo and Doorson)

In two years, if nothing else, Coach P has shown he utilizes close to his entire roster. That needs to be factored when discussing player roles, future, etc.

 

[RUChoppin]

In '17-'18: 9 players played 12+ minutes per game. 11 players played 6.7+ minutes per game (Souf and Bullock)
In 16-'17: 9 players played 12+ minutes per game. 11 players played 8.3+ minutes per game (Diallo and Doorson)

In two years, if nothing else, Coach P has shown he utilizes close to his entire roster. That needs to be factored when discussing player roles, future, etc.

Will be interesting to see. Other than Doorson being injured in 2016-17, the other three all transferred after the season - all seeing the writing on the wall that they weren't really going to be a part of the rotation going forward.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In '17-'18: 9 players played 12+ minutes per game. 11 players played 6.7+ minutes per game (Souf and Bullock)
In 16-'17: 9 players played 12+ minutes per game. 11 players played 8.3+ minutes per game (Diallo and Doorson)

In two years, if nothing else, Coach P has shown he utilizes close to his entire roster. That needs to be factored when discussing player roles, future, etc.

Again you have to look at minutes distribution in close games. We do know that Pikiell had a finite amount of options and players did get default minutes.

I do agree though with your premise that Pikiell probably wants a 8-10 man rotation.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the 4 and 5. I'd think that Johnson, Carter, Omoruyi, Doorson, and Duke aren't all going to be a part of the ultimate rotation.

 

[RUChoppin]

Again you have to look at minutes distribution in close games. We do know that Pikiell had a finite amount of options and players did get default minutes.

I do agree though with your premise that Pikiell probably wants a 8-10 man rotation.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the 4 and 5. I'd think that Johnson, Carter, Omoruyi, Doorson, and Duke aren't all going to be a part of the ultimate rotation.

I'd imagine that minutes for our bigs will also be limited by foul trouble - moreso than for our guards. Doucoure averaged 7.3 fouls per 40 min last year, Doorson averaged 4.5 and Omoruyi averaged 4.0. In conference play, those numbers were 8.6/4.6/4.4 respectively.

So, we're more likely to need some depth there to account for games we run into early foul trouble - which will both suppress the minutes of the starters a bit, and give more minutes to the bench players. And Doorson may again be used situationally.

Last year in conference play, we saw:
24.5 - Freeman
21.8 - Omoruyi
13.9 - Sa
12.9 - Doucoure
12.9 - Doorson

And we're adding Johnson and Carter to replace Sa and Freeman. If Omoruyi moves up to 25+ min (as he was playing more toward the end of the year), that'd give 12-15 min at PF to Carter. And we may again have a three-headed monster in the center, with Doorson/Doucoure/Johnson (and possibly even Carter) fighting it out for 40 min of court time.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You know my thoughts here. We need to boost our offensive efficiency. We appear to finally have a supply of guards to play. When you look at at a specific offensive possession I can't see how we can't score more if Issa is on the floor compared to a Duke or Doorson.

 

[RickB113]

You know my thoughts here. We need to boost our offensive efficiency. We appear to finally have a supply of guards to play. When you look at at a specific offensive possession I can't see how we can't score more if Issa is on the floor compared to a Duke or Doorson.

I have high hopes for Duke offensively. I think he is the total package. He will be knocking down threes as an upper classman. The skill is there.

 

[dkostus]

You know my thoughts here. We need to boost our offensive efficiency. We appear to finally have a supply of guards to play. When you look at at a specific offensive possession I can't see how we can't score more if Issa is on the floor compared to a Duke or Doorson.

I think efficiency will go up either way... all the guards/wings on the team now are guys who look (at least from prior game film) like they won't hesitate to shoot or defer to the lead guard, (Issa is the continuing exception) Eugene is a lot more efficient than Freeman was offensively and hopefully will take another step forward... I don't know, maybe I'm reading too much into watching high school game film.

Any idea what kind of offense Pike ran when he actually had "his guys" at Stony Brook?

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Was Kiss the only player who redshirted or sat out last season and is now ready to go?

How good is Kiss?

Closer to Baker or Souf?

 

[kcg88]

Was Kiss the only player who redshirted or sat out last season and is now ready to go?

How good is Kiss?

Closer to Baker or Souf?

Myles Johnson redshirted as well.

Kiss is more like Baker than Souf in that he's shown he can be a scorer in in Division 1 basketball. He won't be overmatched the way Mensa was.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Myles Johnson redshirted as well.

Kiss is more like Baker than Souf in that he's shown he can be a scorer in in Division 1 basketball. He won't be overmatched the way Mensa was.

Is Myles a player or a bench warmer?

 

[dkostus]

Is Myles a player or a bench warmer?

Reports are that he's completely improved physically and is the best passing big man on the team. Apparently the staff really likes his game.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Reports are that he's completely improved physically and is the best passing big man on the team. Apparently the staff really likes his game.

If he can contribute and not be an anchor it makes the team much more formidable

 

[Goku]

I think I see what Pike is trying to achieve here in terms of the team layout.

-He wants shooters (who doesn't though)
-He wants long guards who can rebound

I can see him playing his 4 long guards out there with one of the bigs for large stretches of time. Pike would have a lot of offensive potential out there but he wouldn't have a liability in regards to rebounding, since his 4 tall guards/wings will crash the boards for him.

 

[RUChoppin]

You know my thoughts here. We need to boost our offensive efficiency. We appear to finally have a supply of guards to play. When you look at at a specific offensive possession I can't see how we can't score more if Issa is on the floor compared to a Duke or Doorson.

I'm really hoping our bigs improve in this area. Doorson will probably still be used situationally to body up on 7-footers from the other team, and will see limited time against smaller/faster centers.

But Johnson intrigues me - a strong passer in the middle? With perimeter threats? We may actually be able to set up a legitimate inside/out game, which should definitely improve offensive efficiency. Carter at PF should get stuffed on chippies much less often than Freeman did, too - and shouldn't have as low a FG% fro the four spot. If Doucoure can show improvement, he also has much more range as a five to go out to 10-12 feet with his shot - which also makes things interesting with penetrating guard play.

If Thiam can also improve his game at the three? Could definitely see some improvement next year.

Of course... lots of young guys, and will take time to gel and integrate into what Pike is trying to run. Hoping for a lot of solid growth as we go through next season, which could set up a breakthrough squad for 2019-20.

 

[zebnatto]

I think I see what Pike is trying to achieve here in terms of the team layout.

-He wants shooters (who doesn't though)
-He wants long guards who can rebound

I can see him playing his 4 long guards out there with one of the bigs for large stretches of time. Pike would have a lot of offensive potential out there but he wouldn't have a liability in regards to rebounding, since his 4 tall guards/wings will crash the boards for him.

I think this works especially if we go zone and turn opponent into jump shooters rather than shots at rim where big and bulky is larger factor.

 

[BKIn118]

Pikiell loves big guards...loves them.

I can see many nights where we play 4 guards exclusively...because when your guys are 6'4-6'5-6'6... as long as they can rebound positionally...you can create all sorts of mismatches