I am in the court that is closer to VirginiaRUfan than Mich at this stage....we are at a point in time where SJU is really in "no-mans land" as a program......they are not getting elite kids and outside of problem child Rysheed Jordan (who is extremely talented and talked himself out of other recruiting options because there were playing time demands/requirements), they are not landing a class this year or next that would be nationally recognized as a Top 10-15 class....
Slice is a great recruiter, but he's not going to take St. John's to any new levels as a program, he will fix recruiting in the NYC area, but that remains to be seen as the resource that guarantees success like 15-20 years ago.........St. Johns' really has not ever had a recruiting issue at any point in time, they are just not a big ticket item and have settled into a range that when they do well, they are a 8-9 seed and in an off year, they are in the NIT.
The problem that St John's has, is the same problem Villanova now has....the rest of the Big East as a league doesn't have Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse and Pitt as statement programs to establish quality road wins or home upsets against....the league is just not a Power 5 league or feels that way when watching most of the games on TV this year.
The other problem is Villanova as your statement or standard program isn't what many people think of today......Nova thrived on being the "underdog" that upset the big boys and suddenly, all the big boys left and they are the hunted.....they don't recruit piles of talent that make anyone think they are going to dominate college basketball anytime soon. Nova was grossly overseeded in the last two tournaments and bounced in Round 2 in both seasons as a 2 and 1 seed. I think the general public in Year 3, isn't going to be so quick to "sign-off" on publically thinking another 27 win season and BE tourney title is another 1 or 2 seed, if they are ranked in the Top 5.
St. Johns will need to significantly schedule up in November and December and travel to Power 5 conference schools like they have been doing to change the perception of the league and their school. Mullin does that in our region (reputation wise), because we are in the shadows of NYC, but it's not a national brand any longer. I won't be shocked if they finish 2nd or 3rd in conference this year, it's a balanced league from top to bottom, but not impossible to move up quickly in the standings in either.
If they land Ellison and RU is his 2nd or 3rd choice, great.....but that problem is RU and St. John's are targeting the same caliber of player, which is great for RU and signals SJU is not landing the Sampson type kids that decommitted and went to LSU and not landing the Cheick Diallo national recruit types, from right in their backyard of NYC.....
Diallo and Sampson would have signaled a major shift for SJU....they didn't get either and put in a ton of effort on both. I'm more apt to see what happens over a longer term, because I've always maintained that improvement and decline in a program is never swift or quick.....it's usually gradual and doesn't appear that way on the surface, until 4 to 5 years pass and then people ask "what happened"......?? That's how I see the Big East right now, sliding backwards slowly but certainly not moving up or improving. St. John's can improve on paper quickly, but the rest of the league may not.
The competition in the Big East is very balanced, so a 24-7 record in Year 1 for Mullin is entirely possible, and would come with some hesitation before believing that the Big East as a league, provides a good litmus test for supporting that 23-24 wins as a statement that they have arrived again.
Ellison playing at RU makes more sense, but RU will add elsewhere a similar player now or next year, if SJU is the choice later today as many now expect.