Minutes Distribution

[RU23]

People always get mad at me for these threads because there’s so many nuances we can’t account for making it kinda silly. People also like to break minutes down in different ways, but I enjoy it and it highlights that we just don’t have enough guard minutes to go around when everyone is healthy.

This is for big games that we need to win - let’s say NCAA tournament for arguments sake:

Harper & Bailey = 34 minutes
Sommerville = 26 minutes
Hayes & Martini = 20 minutes
Derkack & JWill = 18 minutes
Acuff = 16 minutes
Ogbole = 8 minutes
Davis = 6 minutes

PG: Harper (34), JWill (6)
SG: JWill (12), Acuff (16), Derkack (6), Davis (6)
SF: Martini (8), Hayes (20), Derkack (12)
PF: Ace (34), Martini (6)
C: Sommerville (26), Ogbole (8), Martini (6)

Acuff and JMike are the biggest question marks - otherwise I think this is pretty ideal.

 

[Scangg]

Hard to imagine Davis with 6 minutes as long as Pike is the coach. Is this what you want or what you predict Pike will do?

 

[BillyC80]

Total minutes per player is one thing, then you have ‘who plays with who’ as another.

For example, if you wanted the best 5 offensive players on the court together, let’s say for a 4-minute run, it would be cool to see:

Harper
Hayes
Ace
Martini
Lathan

If those 5 could give us just average defense, our offense would be so incredible with them on the court together, I believe we’d be very tough to beat (for those 4 minutes at least).

 

[lion1983]

People always get mad at me for these threads because there’s so many nuances we can’t account for making it kinda silly. People also like to break minutes down in different ways, but I enjoy it and it highlights that we just don’t have enough guard minutes to go around when everyone is healthy.

This is for big games that we need to win - let’s say NCAA tournament for arguments sake:

Harper & Bailey = 34 minutes
Sommerville = 26 minutes
Hayes & Martini = 20 minutes
Derkack & JWill = 18 minutes
Acuff = 16 minutes
Ogbole = 8 minutes
Davis = 6 minutes

PG: Harper (34), JWill (6)
SG: JWill (12), Acuff (16), Derkack (6), Davis (6)
SF: Martini (8), Hayes (20), Derkack (12)
PF: Ace (34), Martini (6)
C: Sommerville (26), Ogbole (8), Martini (6)

Acuff and JMike are the biggest question marks - otherwise I think this is pretty ideal.

Later today or tomorrow I planned to do a minutes distribution once Bailey returns (which may or may not be Friday).

But ... I like your attempt (even if I do not fully agree) ... good job. I know you are suggesting these as the minutes you think we have to see, rather than what Pikiell will actual do.

I'll make comments here:

1) Reverse Davis' and Acuff's minutes - roughly. It is clear Davis is ahead of Acuff in the pecking order - and if Davis can hit 70% of his FT this year that cements it more.

2) Not clear Sommerville can average 26 mpg - that's a lot of minutes for a true frosh center still learning ... so I would shave a couple of minutes off and add them to Ogbole.

3) Williams is better than you think, so up those minutes.

So ... using your format, but me projecting what the minutes MAY be - which is different than what you are posting (I believe you are posting what you think the minutes need to eb to win a big game, in any one game, per se):

Harper & Bailey = 33 minutes
Sommerville = 22 minutes
Martini = 21 minutes
Hayes = 16
JWill = 23
Derkack = 20 minutes
Acuff = 8 minutes
Ogbole = 11 minutes
Davis = 15 minutes

PG: Harper (25), Davis (15)
SG: JWill (23), Harper (8), Acuff (8), Derkack (3)
SF: Ace (20), Derkack (17), Hayes (3)
PF: Martini (17), Ace (10), Hayes (13)
C: Sommerville (22), Ogbole (11), Martini (4), Ace (3)

I think that adds up.

 

[zebnatto]

People always get mad at me for these threads because there’s so many nuances we can’t account for making it kinda silly. People also like to break minutes down in different ways, but I enjoy it and it highlights that we just don’t have enough guard minutes to go around when everyone is healthy.

This is for big games that we need to win - let’s say NCAA tournament for arguments sake:

Harper & Bailey = 34 minutes
Sommerville = 26 minutes
Hayes & Martini = 20 minutes
Derkack & JWill = 18 minutes
Acuff = 16 minutes
Ogbole = 8 minutes
Davis = 6 minutes

PG: Harper (34), JWill (6)
SG: JWill (12), Acuff (16), Derkack (6), Davis (6)
SF: Martini (8), Hayes (20), Derkack (12)
PF: Ace (34), Martini (6)
C: Sommerville (26), Ogbole (8), Martini (6)

Acuff and JMike are the biggest question marks - otherwise I think this is pretty ideal.

In basic agreement. JMike,martini, Hayes, Derkack vary game to game but agree w your total. Acuff has to start showing something

 

[RU23]

Hard to imagine Davis with 6 minutes as long as Pike is the coach. Is this what you want or what you predict Pike will do?

This is what I would do. I honestly have no idea what pike will do, and JMike has earned more minutes but there’s just not enough to go around. Acuff is a 5th year senior who played 38 minutes per game last year - I think he’ll get at least 15 for us.

I think folks as always are taking too much away from the first two games - Acuff is clearly still knocking off some rust but should be a very good 3 point shooter for us and a plus defender by the time conference play rolls around.

 

[willisneverrana43]

People always get mad at me for these threads . . .

Well I'm a people and I know what always means. I'm mad at you.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

PG: Harper (25), Davis (15)
SG: JWill (23), Harper (8), Acuff (8), Derkack (3)
SF: Ace (20), Derkack (17), Hayes (3)
PF: Martini (17), Ace (10), Hayes (13)
C: Sommerville (22), Ogbole (11), Martini (4), Ace (3)

I think that adds up.

If I were to venture a guess this pretty darn close to where i think Pike will be.

I might give a few minutes from Somerville and give them to ogbole or a non center

Acuff looks a step slow and tentative.....is that an injury thing or is he not going to improve and be next guy out of rotation?

 

[ScarletDave]

JMike needs more minutes because of his defense

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

So far
Dylan 33
Sommerville 25
JWill 25
JaMike 25
Hayes 24
Dercack 24
Martini 22
Acuff 15
Ogobole 7

Easy math
Ace +32
Acuff -15
JaMike -7
Hayes -7
Sommervile -3

Acuff not getting booted from rotation unless he keeps this up for a few more games.

 

[G- RUnit]

Acuff just needs to get in better basketball shape. Saw hints last night with nice perimeter shot. As he gets healthier I suspect his minutes go up. Expect good things after winter break.

 

[PaKnight]

Total minutes per player is one thing, then you have ‘who plays with who’ as another.

For example, if you wanted the best 5 offensive players on the court together, let’s say for a 4-minute run, it would be cool to see:

Harper
Hayes
Ace
Martini
Lathan

If those 5 could give us just average defense, our offense would be so incredible with them on the court together, I believe we’d be very tough to beat (for those 4 minutes at least).

Not crazy about having only one real ball handler. Ace is not bad, but he can get loose at times,

 

[BillyC80]

Not crazy about having only one real ball handler. Ace is not bad, but he can get loose at times,

Understood. Still would love to see it though, if just for a few minutes.

 

[BillyC80]

PG: Harper (25), Davis (15)
SG: JWill (23), Harper (8), Acuff (8), Derkack (3)
SF: Ace (20), Derkack (17), Hayes (3)
PF: Martini (17), Ace (10), Hayes (13)
C: Sommerville (22), Ogbole (11), Martini (4), Ace (3)

This makes sense. The only thing I would adjust is giving Hayes more minutes at the 3 and less at the 4, swapping out some of Ace’s minutes at the 3 spot.

 

[RutgersDom]

Total minutes per player is one thing, then you have ‘who plays with who’ as another.

For example, if you wanted the best 5 offensive players on the court together, let’s say for a 4-minute run, it would be cool to see:

Harper
Hayes
Ace
Martini
Lathan

If those 5 could give us just average defense, our offense would be so incredible with them on the court together, I believe we’d be very tough to beat (for those 4 minutes at least).

I said this last night. I would LOVE to see this in stretches!!! As for the original OP I think JMD will and should get many more minutes than 6

 

[BillyC80]

I said this last night. I would LOVE to see this in stretches!!! As for the original OP I think JMD will and should get many more minutes than 6

Yep, can’t remember an RU lineup that would have had more offensive firepower than these 5 guys, unless you go back to 1976.

 

[RU848789]

Later today or tomorrow I planned to do a minutes distribution once Bailey returns (which may or may not be Friday).

But ... I like your attempt (even if I do not fully agree) ... good job. I know you are suggesting these as the minutes you think we have to see, rather than what Pikiell will actual do.

I'll make comments here:

1) Reverse Davis' and Acuff's minutes - roughly. It is clear Davis is ahead of Acuff in the pecking order - and if Davis can hit 70% of his FT this year that cements it more.

2) Not clear Sommerville can average 26 mpg - that's a lot of minutes for a true frosh center still learning ... so I would shave a couple of minutes off and add them to Ogbole.

3) Williams is better than you think, so up those minutes.

So ... using your format, but me projecting what the minutes MAY be - which is different than what you are posting (I believe you are posting what you think the minutes need to eb to win a big game, in any one game, per se):

Harper & Bailey = 33 minutes
Sommerville = 22 minutes
Martini = 21 minutes
Hayes = 16
JWill = 23
Derkack = 20 minutes
Acuff = 8 minutes
Ogbole = 11 minutes
Davis = 15 minutes

PG: Harper (25), Davis (15)
SG: JWill (23), Harper (8), Acuff (8), Derkack (3)
SF: Ace (20), Derkack (17), Hayes (3)
PF: Martini (17), Ace (10), Hayes (13)
C: Sommerville (22), Ogbole (11), Martini (4), Ace (3)

I think that adds up.

I agree with this. Can't imagine Acuff with more minutes than JMike, at least based on the two games so far, as Acuff looks a bit slow and less intense on D; JMike shooting 3-4 shots for ~15 minutes a game (and not more than 1 trey), while playing tenacious defense and not making TO's while making some good passes is a good thing to have. Acuff could see his minutes dwindle to <5 per game once we start playing top teams. And JWill is underrated, IMO.

I also think Sommerville/Ogbole minutes will be somewhat more situational depending on the opponent's big men. I would also expect both Harper and Ace to average at least 35 minutes per game against quality opponents - just can't afford to have them on the bench too much (although it would be great for us to be able to win with them only playing 32-33 a game).

 

[lion1983]

I agree with this. Can't imagine Acuff with more minutes than JMike, at least based on the two games so far, as Acuff looks a bit slow and less intense on D; JMike shooting 3-4 shots for ~15 minutes a game (and not more than 1 trey), while playing tenacious defense and not making TO's while making some good passes is a good thing to have. Acuff could see his minutes dwindle to <5 per game once we start playing top teams. And JWill is underrated, IMO.

I also think Sommerville/Ogbole minutes will be somewhat more situational depending on the opponent's big men. I would also expect both Harper and Ace to average at least 35 minutes per game against quality opponents - just can't afford to have them on the bench too much (although it would be great for us to be able to win with them only playing 32-33 a game).

Thx.

In re Harper and Bailey minutes ... I think it is really tough for freshman, no matter how talented, to have the physical endurance to average 35+ minutes per game in Big Ten play. Do not forget just how physical the Big Ten is ... that is a lot of pounding on less mature bodies by older more mature bodies. And RU will NEED both on the floor, not winded or exhausted, the last 4-5 minutes of the game.

My son put it to me well, I thought, after watching RU's games this year (without Bailey):

1) Harper and Bailey play together the FIRST 6-8 minutes of each game.

2) Harper and Bailey play together the LAST 6-8 minutes of each game.

3) In the middle 24-28 minutes of the game, RU ALWAYS has AT LEAST ONE of Harper or Bailey on the floor ... if each gets 7-8 minutes of rest, then do the math: In the middle of the game, for 7-8 minutes RU has only Bailey, for 7-8 minutes RU has only Harper - probably in TWO stretches of 3-4 minutes each (1 stretch for 3-4 minutes each alone in each half) ... and for an additional 8-10 minutes (4-5 minutes in each half) they play together in the middle parts of the game.

 

[willisneverrana43]

Thx.

In re Harper and Bailey minutes ... I think it is really tough for freshman, no matter how talented, to have the physical endurance to average 35+ minutes per game in Big Ten play. . . .

Well, they better get used to it fast. Because it ain't nothing compared to what they may get in the NBA next year. This is what they want, so they need to get ready.

 

[lion1983]

Well, they better get used to it fast. Because it ain't nothing compared to what they may get in the NBA next year. This is what they want, so they need to get ready.

While that is true, 1 year from now they will each be a year older, a year stronger and a year of adding to their conditioning. And once done with college, their full-time job will be to improve their skills and their physical endurance, strength, abilities, etc.

I think I read somewhere that professional athletes may spend up to 5-6 hours a day with physical training ... plus basketball skills training on top of that. College athletes do not have that time.

This year is not about them proving they have the conditioning to play 35+ minutes a game. Rather this is a year for them to show their skills: Offensive efficiency (hurt by being tired), good decision-making (hurt by being tired) and not getting hurt (odds go higher when tired on the court). Plus, it would help each of them to help their team WIN - meaning being NOT tired the last 5-6 minutes of the game, to carry their team to a win.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Go watch the St John’s game. Pike wasn’t going to let that happen. He made sure Harper for rest so he was fresh down the stretch.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No one should EVER compare NBA minutes to playing in B1G, especially RU. Any poster who does that should be banned permanently from the site! It’s like comparing waiting on a line for ice cream for 25 minutes to running a 5K

 

[willisneverrana43]

While that is true, 1 year from now they will each be a year older, a year stronger and a year of adding to their conditioning. And once done with college, their full-time job will be to improve their skills and their physical endurance, strength, abilities, etc.
. . .

I'd be wiling to wager that this uptick in the NBA from their previous college year will be the same as, or likely tougher than, what these two one-and-done guys experience this year. They're not going to be getting As in advanced calculus. They'll be practicing and getting ready. And what they'll do here is nothing like an NBA schedule. Their increase in workload and pressure will be much greater next year when they join the NBA. Remember, these two players not only played high school ball but tons of travel ball.

Sorry, Ace and Dylan need to be ready to carry the load for this team or why even have them here. They know that, seem like good kids, and they'll be getting ready. They have a lot of reason$$$$ to look good and ready this year.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Next year Ace and Dylan will be able to go back to not worry about fighting over screens and basically be able to play at 75% effort.

 

[RU23]

Next year Ace and Dylan will be able to go back to not worry about fighting over screens and basically be able to play at 75% effort.

Another thing to watch with those two as they prep for the league is they might take a few more 3’s per game than we’d like/expect. The NBA had seemed to plateau at around 35 3PA per game over the past few seasons, but that number seems to be ticking up again (unfortunately).

Brandon Miller who some have compared Ace to took over 9 per game when he was at Bama. I don’t think Ace will take that many but maybe 7 or 8 - I think Dylan will continue on his current trajectory at about 5 per game. You’d probably prefer each of them to take one or two less per game in an ideal world, but gotta get ready to chuck in the league.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Dylan's stock will go down if he doesn't take and make 3s.

 

[Scangg]

Dylan's stock will go down if he doesn't take and make 3s.

3 point shooting is at a premium in the NBA. He needs to be at least respectable from deep to be a top 3 to 5 pick

I love Dylan attacking and don't want him settling for 3's