Must go 2-0 vs Seton Hall and Wake Forrest

[FIJI'83]

This team can survive losing to Indiana or Ohio State (or both) because there will be other opportunities to win big conference games but they absolutely must beat both Wake and Seton Hall at home if they are going to have a shot of making the tourney. The selection committee will 100% hold this team being 0-4 or 1-3 in their main non conference games against us

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

no they dont

 

[RU-ROCS]

Wake looked very tough in winning at Wisconsin.

 

[bac2therac]

no they dont

if they dont it puts alot of pressure to go 11-9 in league and they could be 0-2 right off the bat, SHU is going to be a 500 team this year and if thats your best win thats a weak resume outside the big ten and especially since the OOC SOS will likely end up poor

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We are a minus 2 right now. We need to finish the year a zero or better.

-4 would be a big hole. -2 is not when you look at the schedule at the end of the year.

I am looking at 24 real games

 

[bac2therac]

we were first four last year with a 12-8 record and 5 Q1 wins including super wins over Purdue, Wisky, Ill, we had like 9 wins vs ncaa teams....are we looking for a repeat

thread the needle

 

[ScarletDave]

we were first four last year with a 12-8 record and 5 Q1 wins including super wins over Purdue, Wisky, Ill, we had like 9 wins vs ncaa teams....are we looking for a repeat

thread the needle

No because barring disaster against Bucknell and Maine we won’t have TWO losses to terrible teams this year. Without the Lafayette and Umass games last year, with those wins all else equal forget the 18 seed we would probably have been about a 7 or 8 seed

 

[bac2therac]

right but you are assuming we have the same type of super wins in league...I just think that if we are not sweeping Wake and SHU, we are really in a tough spot

 

[ScarletDave]

right but you are assuming we have the same type of super wins in league

Last year, lots of good wins, lots of bad losses.

This year, no good wins, no bad losses.
But that is unlikely to stay that way. So the which is more likely - we get a good win or have a bad loss. Looking at the schedule I think we’re more likely to beat someone we shouldn’t than lose to someone we shouldn’t

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Losing to a bad SHU team at home in Sha’s 1st season would be disastrous for Pike

Wake is a very tough game

 

[fluoxetine]

We are a minus 2 right now. We need to finish the year a zero or better.

-4 would be a big hole. -2 is not when you look at the schedule at the end of the year.

I am looking at 24 real games

We aren’t -2, more like -1

 

[fluoxetine]

2-2 in the next four is good, 3-1 would be great

 

[fluoxetine]

Kenpom still thinks we’re the 40th best team.

 

[bac2therac]

2-2 in the next four is good, 3-1 would be great

ill sign on for 2-2, get Paul back and we can win games later in the Big 10 schedule

 

[goru7]

A win would have been extra sweet as Temple (98); UMASS Lowell(139) and Rider (213); and Bucknell (234): all won big tonight and even Sacred Heart won on the road. Limiting our 300+ plus Kenpom wins to Columbia and Central Connecticut State would be nice as Sacred Heart and Coppin State are hovering around the 300 mark. Hopefully they can get to and stay at the 275 range. As long as we take care of business against Bucknell and Coppin State then there will be no disastrous losses and the worst loss would be a # 98 Temple team without Paul and Caleb . Have to start stringing wins against ranked teams from here on out.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

From a fans perspective …three out of four at home so need two

Winning Satuday helps

 

[bac2therac]

A win would have been extra sweet as Temple (98); UMASS Lowell(139) and Rider (213); and Bucknell (234): all won big tonight and even Sacred Heart won on the road. Limiting our 300+ plus Kenpom wins to Columbia and Central Connecticut State would be nice as Sacred Heart and Coppin State are hovering around the 300 mark. Hopefully they can get to and stay at the 275 range. As long as we take care of business against Bucknell and Coppin State then there will be no disastrous losses and the worst loss would be a # 98 Temple team without Paul and Caleb . Have to start stringing wins against ranked teams from here on out.

Kenpom isnt used

its NET which can have wildly different ratings and its going to be meaningless until January and its not out yet

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We aren’t -2, more like -1

My mental accounting has the season as 24 games + B1G.

Temple is a real game and at worst can hand with the bottom 3 or 4 in the B1G

 

[fluoxetine]

My mental accounting has the season as 24 games + B1G.

Temple is a real game and at worst can hand with the bottom 3 or 4 in the B1G

Right, I think my point is that bubble expectation vs. Temple/Miami is 1-1 not 2-0. So we are in a one game hole, not 2.

 

[Unionst]

Record aside, we’re looking very borderline right now. Will Paul come back strong soon, stay healthy and lead us to .500 or better in the Big 10? Not so sure. I expect a lot of tight games like Miami over the year. Our best case for the tourney seems that it will be a close call. I’m going to try to enjoy the games without worrying about NCAA.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Right, I think my point is that bubble expectation vs. Temple/Miami is 1-1 not 2-0. So we are in a one game hole, not 2.

2 games under .500 pretty much equals your 1 game under the bubble

 

[goru7]

Kenpom isnt used

its NET which can have wildly different ratings and its going to be meaningless until January and its not out yet

Are you kidding me ? That Lafayette loss hung over us and according to you justified us playing in the play in game last year and caused our NET to be as low as it was along with our other close games against the bottom feeders. If we have no slip ups against Bucknell and Coppin State and blow out those teams , then there is little to no negative crap the committee can use against us.

 

[fluoxetine]

2 games under .500 pretty much equals your 1 game under the bubble

Oh I thought you meant -2 vs bubble. Never mind

 

[bac2therac]

Are you kidding me ? That Lafayette loss hung over us and according to you justified us playing in the play in game last year and caused our NET to be as low as it was along with our other close games against the bottom feeders. If we have no slip ups against Bucknell and Coppin State and blow out those teams , then there is little to no negative crap the committee can use against us.

You are misunderstanding...the ranking systems are meaningless until you get about 10-12 games put into them

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Oh I thought you meant -2 vs bubble. Never mind

I think the "bubble" will be very close to RU .500 in the 24 games.....(i am assuming we dont lose the cupcakes)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Obviously going 5-0 vs 3 weak B1G teams with no "signtaure wins" would probably put us needing a lot going in to B1Gt at 19-12

 

[bac2therac]

I think the "bubble" will be very close to RU .500 in the 24 games.....(i am assuming we dont lose the cupcakes)

Just glancing at Bucknell and Coppin State and they may not not be as sugary as earlier ones. Dangerous in a dangerous time of year

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Bucknell is Rider
Coppin State is Sacred Heart

I'll melt down if we lose any of those games. It is possible, but I don't even want to entertain the possibility of it now. I am extremely concerned Indiana will expose our offensive weaknesses and basically put the answers to the test out further to the public.

They showed exactly what they are capable of doing defensively against UNC. If we are going to beat Indiana we better hold them under 60.

 

[goru7]

You are misunderstanding...the ranking systems are meaningless until you get about 10-12 games put into them

I understand fully and what I am saying is there will be nothing negative for them to hold against us like they did last year. That Lafayette loss and maybe that Lehigh OT game according to most posters and I am not sure you were one of them , cost us playing in the play in game , despite our 4th place finish in the Big 10 and our 4 ranked wins in a row. .

 

[bac2therac]

The OOC slate most definitely matters but until some conference games are integrated into the rankings the NET rankings are incomplete

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The OOC slate most definitely matters but until some conference games are integrated into the rankings the NET rankings are incomplete

What we don’t know (maybe you have an idea) is the importance of NET and how much our bad adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (scoring margin in drag) hurt us.

This year our OOC schedule is just as bad, but this year we have slaughtered the weak teams and our adjusted Edficiency numbers are way better.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Bart numbers (minus ‘23 preseason bias)
Thru 12/2
This year. #35. 99.5 O 83.9 D. 5-2
Last year. #179. 95.8 O 95.7 D. 4-3

Say we trod to 19-12 (10-10) in the most unspectacular fashion and keep scoring margins “where they should be” we’d be looking at a NET in the 40s most likely vs. where we were.

I have no idea how much, if any, that would help relative to last year

 

[bac2therac]

What we don’t know (maybe you have an idea) is the importance of NET and how much our bad adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency (scoring margin in drag) hurt us.

This year our OOC schedule is just as bad, but this year we have slaughtered the weak teams and our adjusted Edficiency numbers are way better.

yes I think right off the bat we should see some improvement. The SOS looks like it will be sketchy based on what I see on rpi sos. Although this 5 game soft gauntlet will improve it. I see the NCAA released it in early December last year but have not seen a first release date yet for this season.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

yes I think right off the bat we should see some improvement. The SOS looks like it will be sketchy based on what I see on rpi sos. Although this 5 game soft gauntlet will improve it. I see the NCAA released it in early December last year but have not seen a first release date yet for this season.

Do you think RU will best WF & SHU?

 

[bac2therac]

Bart numbers (minus ‘23 preseason bias)
Thru 12/2
This year. #35. 99.5 O 83.9 D. 5-2
Last year. #179. 95.8 O 95.7 D. 4-3

Say we trod to 19-12 (10-10) in the most unspectacular fashion and keep scoring margins “where they should be” we’d be looking at a NET in the 40s most likely vs. where we were.

I have no idea how much, if any, that would help relative to last year

then becomes the other problems..are we picking up quality road wins, did we beat anyone with a pulse OOC...hopefully Wake is a NCAA team but that still likely will be a Q2. We had super Q1 wins last year. I wouldnt bet on them this year. We may see wins against who we should beat but nothing spectacular.

I always say its better to not leave something on your profile that the selection committee can point to

I also would like to see us make a Big 10 tourney run if we were in a bubble position. I was utterly disappointed in the whole approach to that Iowa game last year. Infuriating looking bac at it.

 

[bac2therac]

Do you think RU will best WF & SHU?

I think we have a decent shot, we did lead much of the game vs Miami on the road and they are likely better than both WF and SHU. To me if we are not sweeping them then we prolly arent a tourney team anyhow.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

then becomes the other problems..are we picking up quality road wins, did we beat anyone with a pulse OOC...hopefully Wake is a NCAA team but that still likely will be a Q2. We had super Q1 wins last year. I wouldnt bet on them this year. We may see wins against who we should beat but nothing spectacular.

I always say its better to not leave something on your profile that the selection committee can point to

I also would like to see us make a Big 10 tourney run if we were in a bubble position. I was utterly disappointed in the whole approach to that Iowa game last year. Infuriating looking bac at it.

The question I am not sure about is how important is that NET number.

Said differently.....if our resume last year was the exact same and our NET number was 10 points higher just because we beat Lehigh, NJIT, Merrimack by 35 would that have moved us up a few spots and kept us out of Dayton

 

[FIJI'83]

I think we have a decent shot, we did lead much of the game vs Miami on the road and they are likely better than both WF and SHU. To me if we are not sweeping them then we prolly arent a tourney team anyhow.

We probably can beat SHU without PM. Not the others.

 

[bac2therac]

The question I am not sure about is how important is that NET number.

Said differently.....if our resume last year was the exact same and our NET number was 10 points higher just because we beat Lehigh, NJIT, Merrimack by 35 would that have moved us up a few spots and kept us out of Dayton

I think our awful NET last year looks like a red flag when evaluating...the loss to Lafayette probably torpedoed it 10 spots if not more. I dont think overall NET ranking is an end all be all and obviously RU was that outlier but Id much rather sit in the top 50 or better yet top 40.

Wake was left out last year with a decent NET as was Texas A&M who might have proved that conference tourney runs dont much mattter

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think our awful NET last year looks like a red flag when evaluating...the loss to Lafayette probably torpedoed it 10 spots if not more. I dont think overall NET ranking is an end all be all and obviously RU was that outlier but Id much rather sit in the top 50 or better yet top 40.

Wake was left out last year with a decent NET as was Texas A&M who might have proved that conference tourney runs dont much mattter

so you are thinking the NET is more of a talking point with the talking heads then something actually used by the committee?

I know offense and defense efficiency is essentially scoring margin. I don't know exactly how much it moves the needle with the NET. I am thinking a decent amount because NET was pretty close to bart and kenpom with some exceptions.