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My thoughts on 2022, 2023, and beyond

kcg88

Heisman Winner
Aug 11, 2017
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Everyone else is making a thread so why not? I've specifically steered away from the kneejerk game to game reactions mainly for my own sanity but now that the season is basically over I might as well get my thoughts down.

I think the team is clearly beat up, significantly worse than the normal wear-and-tear of a regular season. Mag is out, obviously. McConnell, fairly obviously, is nowhere close to 100%. Remember how awkward he looked coming back from the knee injury? And then he played 33 minutes a game. I'm certain that was an issue all season long and that's before we get to his back. For Mulcahy, I'll be shocked if 72 hours pass from the end of the season without a "Paul was playing with a significant shoulder injury" announcement. Labrum, rotator cuff... something. And I wouldn't be surprised if something also came out about Cliff, though his is closer to normal wear and tear. So with that context here's my rundown of the roster.

Group 1 - The Core

Paul Mulcahy
- Would love for him to come back next year but it can't be as the main point guard. That's just not working and will not magically start working in Year 5. He needs to be a glue guy on the wing akin to Connor McCaffrey's role on Iowa. Connor has the luxury of not needing to put up shots for Iowa's offense to work. It's on Pikiell to bring in the right players so that the offense is not dependent on Mulcahy but rather is enhanced by what he can do.

Cliff Omoruyi - Really hope he comes back too. He hasn't progressed the way we all hoped but a big man can only do so much without the threat of anyone else getting into the paint and scoring. He was so good last year because Geo and Ron could both make things happen inside the arc and draw help defenders to free him up. It's also not correct to say he didn't get better at all. His rebounding numbers and block rate were both up.

Cam Spencer - A home run in the transfer portal. Anyone hoping for more than what he gave us is delusional. No, he's not going to carry an offense but a guy shooting 43% on 4.5 threes a game is what we've been missing forever. The goal next year should be to open things up for him to get 5+ attempts a game. He gets what he can out of his limited athleticism on defense. Absolutely thrilled with him. Just please knock off the 17 foot fadeaway next season.

Mawot Mag - It's not really shocking the season took such a turn when our only two-way player went down. Everyone else on the roster is way better on one side of the ball or the other and it made us too easy to scout and exploit. He was blossoming on both sides of the ball and we need him healthy.

I think this group is a solid starting base for a tournament team. You've got shooting in Spencer (and Mulcahy isn't a bad shooter, just very low volume). You've got passing in Mulcahy. You've got a big man in Cliff. You've got defense in Mag. All four are a good size for their position and they'll all have multiple years in Pikiell's system. Certainly pieces will need to be added and we'll get to that.

Group 2 - The Freshmen

Derek Simpson
- I admit I got a bit suckered into the Geo comparison. But when I watched Geo play in the exhibition against St. John's before his freshman year even began, I tweeted the following: "Geo Baker is already the best passer Rutgers basketball has had in years." Admittedly it was a low bar coming off the Eddie Jordan era but it was clear that the way he saw the court and got the right spot to make a pass was going to make the team better. I saw that in game 1 with Geo. I didn't see that all year with Simpson. That's not to say he can't be a positive contributor to the team but anyone talking about Simpson as a point guard is not worth taking seriously. He did not show the playmaking or distributing attributes necessary. At best he's a combo guard but he's got to shore those things up.

Now he did show some promise. He can drive both ways, but he's got to tighten up his handle. He's got enough quickness, but he's got to stronger with his finishes. His shooting form isn't bad but obviously 10 for 48 is unacceptable from a guard. I'm not saying he can't or won't get better... Wade Taylor on Texas A&M shot 39% on twos and 28% on threes as a freshman and now as a sophomore he's first team All SEC. (Simpson shot 42% and 21% for reference, but on a lower volume. A&M handed Taylor the keys from day 1). Simpson isn't going to morph into Wade Taylor as a sophomore, but he's also not going to be the same player we saw as a freshman. We'll circle back to this uncertainty.

Antwone Woolfolk - Wasn't ready for Big Ten minutes.

Antonio Chol - Wasn't even ready for NEC minutes.

There's some potential here but anybody penciling in average Big Ten level play from these three is wishcasting. If they get there next season it will be a pleasant surprise (or in Chol's case a total shock). If you were talking with a fan of any other Big Ten team about their roster for next year and they were writing in someone with Simpson's stats (and lack of recruiting pedigree) as a starter for 2023-24 your reaction would be: yeah, good luck with that. His numbers are close to Kanye Clary (Penn State) and Joshua Ola-Joseph (Minnesota)... ask yourself if you're expecting big things from those two next year.

Group 3 - Thanks

Aundre Hyatt
- Somebody had to take shots on this team so I do appreciate that Hyatt was at least a willing shooter. Unfortunately we're talking about a guy who is now a 28.5% three point shooter on 274 attempts. You know how many high major players attempted at least 140 three pointers and shot a worse percentage than Hyatt? Just two. The ideal version of Hyatt never materialized and it's not going to pop up in his 6th year of college. When our big four game run happened last season he played 31 minutes total. Playing him 31 minutes a night is way too big an ask. Rooting for you wherever you end up.

Jalen Miller - Thanks for the defensive energy last season -- it was sorely needed. Rooting for you in the CAA.

Oskar Palmquist - Thanks for the offense against Wisconsin and Penn State. Rooting for you in the MAAC.... maybe.

Dean Reiber - Thanks for the lift against Penn State last year when Cliff picked up the early fouls. Rooting for you in C-USA... maybe

I suspect Hyatt is going to the controversial one here. He's obviously a more capable high-major player than the other ones listed. But like I said off the top in order for Rutgers to get better, Mulcahy has to find a different role. And Mag is getting major wing minutes. And we're going to need to get Gavin Griffiths in there. That leaves Hyatt as the odd man out.

So What Does 2023-24 Look Like?
Let's say the roster breaks down like that. Seven returnees plus three incoming freshmen leaves two scholarships available (I do not expect Pikiell to start using the 13th scholarship on a real body... it will be saved for a walk-on).

In that case priority 1, 2, and 3 is finding a point guard in the portal. No messing around. We cannot rely on the enigmatic or uncertain combination of Paul Mulcahy, Derek Simpson, and JaMichael Davis. If Pikiell had landed Kyle Lofton or been able to get Sam Sessoms here (grades may have been an issue) we'd be safely in the field. I wanted Cam Wynter... the guy who just made back to back game winners for Penn State. I don't want to hear that guys don't want to come here because we have Mulcahy and Simpson when Penn State got Wynter to come and play with Jalen Pickett.

I'm picturing a starting lineup of:
Transfer PG
Mulcahy
Griffiths
Mag
Omoruyi

And a bench of Simpson, Spencer, Davis, Ndongo, Woolfolk. I do write in Davis and Ndongo with the assumption that they're at or ahead of where Simpson and Woolfolk were this year. Ndongo is a top 150 guy and Davis has been playing with and against elite players (like Ace Bailey) unlike Simpson who was playing against South Jersey public schoolers. Between the four of them we should have two players able to give capable rotation minutes.

So that gets us to 10. Chol is 11... I'm not really expecting anything out of him. He's incredibly raw and 2023-24 would be his true freshman season if not for the late reclassification. Anything we get from him is gravy. And one scholarship will go to a walk-on. Do we get another transfer...?

This is where I come back to Reiber and Palmquist. I think one will be back. Pikiell likes them and they know the system. We need frontcourt depth especially early on as Mag is coming back from the injury. We know Pikiell values chemistry and it's going to be a lot easier to send one of those guys to the bench once Mag is back as opposed to a transfer who might be unhappy with it. (Or Hyatt, to whom that would also apply I think)

The way this doesn't happen is if Pikiell lands a big fish 4 in the portal and then uses Mag as the ultimate versatile 6th man. This would be a terrific outcome but the portal tends to be very guard heavy and the 4s and 5s tend to outkick their coverage, so to speak. See: Pete Nance ending up at UNC. If he goes this route it has to be a slam dunk that the guy is an upgrade... like whoever this year's version of Matthew Mayer is in the portal.

I give this a low probability. So if Mag is out to start the year we could go small with Spencer in there, or play Palmquist. Will that lineup get destroyed on the boards? Probably, but you'd at least like to think there would be a lot more made shots than the usual Rutgers lineup and thus fewer rebounds to try and grab anyway.

Been typing too long and don't have a good way to end this but I'll probably just spam this thread with my random thoughts and transfer portal targets as we go.
 
Definitely going to be an interesting, potentially exciting offseason...

Great writeup, will come back to it once the season is officially over.
 
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Ideally Griffiths is the 6th man getting 20-22 min a night and we bring in a impact transfer. I know we expect GG to be a stud and he probably will be but he's likely not averaging more than 8 ppg as a freshman
We'd better hope it's more than that. Obviously it's true that many, maybe even most top freshman don't do that but Griffiths strikes me as the kind of player who is ready to score from day 1. The defense is what it is but this team needs a guy who is willing to shoot the ball. Kansas did that with Gradey Dick this year (averaging 14.3). Michigan did it with Jett Howard (averaging 14.5). Once XJ got hurt, Indiana did it with Jalen Hood-Schifino (averaging 13.4). Cam Whitmore's averaging 12.6 for Villanova.

We really need Griffiths to be like that crop. He's rated where he is because he's a shooter. If he's not doing that then we're in trouble.
 
We'd better hope it's more than that. Obviously it's true that many, maybe even most top freshman don't do that but Griffiths strikes me as the kind of player who is ready to score from day 1. The defense is what it is but this team needs a guy who is willing to shoot the ball. Kansas did that with Gradey Dick this year (averaging 14.3). Michigan did it with Jett Howard (averaging 14.5). Once XJ got hurt, Indiana did it with Jalen Hood-Schifino (averaging 13.4). Cam Whitmore's averaging 12.6 for Villanova.

We really need Griffiths to be like that crop. He's rated where he is because he's a shooter. If he's not doing that then we're in trouble.
I mean I get it, but I think at best he's around 11 and at worst he is at like 7-8.
 
Refresh my memory, but do we really know whether Pike and co. has ever had "the talk" with players? It just seems so out of character for him and his focus on player development.
 
I agree with 95% of it, but neither Hyatt or Mag is a B1G caliber 3 or 4. And you'll be asking Mag to rehab like a madman to be ready by early November. Even if he is back, what type of expectations are we placing on him, 8 months from an ACL??

The item associated with Simpson is no different than Kyle Lofton or Marcus Hammond. Both are clearly better than both Simpson and Mulcahy as combo guards. I would ideally take 2 portal guards and assume that Gavin Griffiths plugs into a 24 to 26 minutes a game player.

In terms of Woolfolk/Reiber/Chol, I don't see any of the 3 as starters. Maybe Woolfolk develops into Mag 2.0, but Mag is a better athlete than Woolfolk.

The staff during this rebuild, gambled on unique players.....

Mulcahy as a big PG.....

Myles Johnson as a unique, 6'11 player who could alter shots.

RHJ as a chunky guard, asked to play center in HS for long stretches of his career.

Caleb McConnell as a wing/PG kid, who could handle the ball and showed some versatility.

When you gamble on Jalen Miller, Woolfolk and Reiber to be very good at one aspect of their games and none are elite as defenders, shooters, shot blockers, you have a vacuum of talent.

If Hyatt wants to return, bring him back and let him be the buffer until Mag is closer to 80/85%. Maybe that's not 100% for Mag until 2024-25.

Priority is Wing #1, combo guard #2, JUCO defensive Center at #3.

If someone told me that a player like Deliquan Warren was able to reclassify and come on board for 2023, take that and run with it and I'd pass on the portal for a guard.

Combo guard #1 OR Warren
Spencer
Griffiths
Davis
Simpson

That's a 5 to 6 guard rotation that can develop and grow.

Wings

Mag
Hyatt
Addition via portal

PF,
Ndongo, Woolfolk, Chol

C Cliff, JUCO Center with paint presence.

2024 SG recruiting is pretty important IMO right now, unless something falls into our laps, late in 2023 as a frosh recruit (unlikely).
 
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Possible transfer candidates I'm at least intrigued by. Not the top of my wish list but three guys I'm familiar with.

PG Elijah Hawkins, Howard - He's really tiny (listed 5-11, 152) and already struggles to finish against MEAC competition. So that's not ideal. But he's also shooting the 3 at a 46% clip and he's 8th in the country in assist rate. Turnover rate is too high and needs to be ironed out. Played at DeMatha so it's not like he's an unknown quantity. Probably not my first choice but the staff does have deep DC ties.

SG Ishmael Leggett, Rhode Island - Speaking of those DC ties, Leggett also played in the WCAC though not for DeMatha. Rhode Island's offense was hot stinky garbage this year but Leggett was one of the only bright spots. I like him more as a player than as a fit for Rutgers though at 6-3 190. He can get into the lane and draw contact though but it's hard to see Pikiell bringing in a guy to supplant Simpson.

C Josh Cohen, St. Francis (PA) - If Cliff does leave Cohen should be a target. Played at Christian Brothers Academy. He's definitely what you'd picture as a 6-10 white dude from the NEC but he scored 18 against Ohio State and 30 against Miami this season. Ideally he'd be a 20 minute a night guy with Ndongo and Woolfolk stepping up.
 
Great writeup...thank you

other than the usual suspects who'll do anything to cling to being write about Pike (newsflash, you're STILL wrong), we're all feeling a ton of pain right now...but this is a reminder that the future is bright...and getting brighter.

Couple of things:
1) I wouldnt be shocked if Mag takes the full year off...i know that fks with the schollie balance downstream, but I just dont see how he is ready to go by the beginning of B1G play. I guess they need to see how his recovery goes. And before people jump in and say 9 months!...that's not to get back to who you were before...

2) You allude to this a bit in some of your commentary...but Pike needs to adjust/evolve as well. As we're bringing in better offensive players, I think we have to see the offense evolve as well.

Hope we pull off a miracle on Thu....
 
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What I think happens:

Leaves: Cliff Hyatt Reiber Miller
Stays: Paul

What I hope happens:

Leaves: Paul Miller (don’t care re reiber he can stay if he doesn’t mind not playing)
Stays: Cliff Hyatt

What will probably happen:

Leaves: Cliff Hyatt Miller Reiber
Stays: Paul
 
I agree with 95% of it, but neither Hyatt or Mag is a B1G caliber 3 or 4. And you'll be asking Mag to rehab like a madman to be ready by early November. Even if he is back, what type of expectations are we placing on him, 8 months from an ACL??

The item associated with Simpson is no different than Kyle Lofton or Marcus Hammond. Both are clearly better than both Simpson and Mulcahy as combo guards. I would ideally take 2 portal guards and assume that Gavin Griffiths plugs into a 24 to 26 minutes a game player.

In terms of Woolfolk/Reiber/Chol, I don't see any of the 3 as starters. Maybe Woolfolk develops into Mag 2.0, but Mag is a better athlete than Woolfolk.

The staff during this rebuild, gambled on unique players.....

Mulcahy as a big PG.....

Myles Johnson as a unique, 6'11 player who could alter shots.

RHJ as a chunky guard, asked to play center in HS for long stretches of his career.

Caleb McConnell as a wing/PG kid, who could handle the ball and showed some versatility.

When you gamble on Jalen Miller, Woolfolk and Reiber to be very good at one aspect of their games and none are elite as defenders, shooters, shot blockers, you have a vacuum of talent.

If Hyatt wants to return, bring him back and let him be the buffer until Mag is closer to 80/85%. Maybe that's not 100% for Mag until 2024-25.

Priority is Wing #1, combo guard #2, JUCO defensive Center at #3.

If someone told me that a player like Deliquan Warren was able to reclassify and come on board for 2023, take that and run with it and I'd pass on the portal for a guard.

Combo guard #1 OR Warren
Spencer
Griffiths
Davis
Simpson

That's a 5 to 6 guard rotation that can develop and grow.

Wings

Mag
Hyatt
Addition via portal

PF,
Ndongo, Woolfolk, Chol

C Cliff, JUCO Center with paint presence.

2024 SG recruiting is pretty important IMO right now, unless something falls into our laps, late in 2023 as a frosh recruit (unlikely).
The problem is that the transfer portal is a player's market when it comes to wings. If you can't get one of the very top guys available it's usually not worth it. You usually end with... well a guy like Aundre Hyatt.
 
Everyone else is making a thread so why not? I've specifically steered away from the kneejerk game to game reactions mainly for my own sanity but now that the season is basically over I might as well get my thoughts down.

I think the team is clearly beat up, significantly worse than the normal wear-and-tear of a regular season. Mag is out, obviously. McConnell, fairly obviously, is nowhere close to 100%. Remember how awkward he looked coming back from the knee injury? And then he played 33 minutes a game. I'm certain that was an issue all season long and that's before we get to his back. For Mulcahy, I'll be shocked if 72 hours pass from the end of the season without a "Paul was playing with a significant shoulder injury" announcement. Labrum, rotator cuff... something. And I wouldn't be surprised if something also came out about Cliff, though his is closer to normal wear and tear. So with that context here's my rundown of the roster.

Group 1 - The Core

Paul Mulcahy
- Would love for him to come back next year but it can't be as the main point guard. That's just not working and will not magically start working in Year 5. He needs to be a glue guy on the wing akin to Connor McCaffrey's role on Iowa. Connor has the luxury of not needing to put up shots for Iowa's offense to work. It's on Pikiell to bring in the right players so that the offense is not dependent on Mulcahy but rather is enhanced by what he can do.

Cliff Omoruyi - Really hope he comes back too. He hasn't progressed the way we all hoped but a big man can only do so much without the threat of anyone else getting into the paint and scoring. He was so good last year because Geo and Ron could both make things happen inside the arc and draw help defenders to free him up. It's also not correct to say he didn't get better at all. His rebounding numbers and block rate were both up.

Cam Spencer - A home run in the transfer portal. Anyone hoping for more than what he gave us is delusional. No, he's not going to carry an offense but a guy shooting 43% on 4.5 threes a game is what we've been missing forever. The goal next year should be to open things up for him to get 5+ attempts a game. He gets what he can out of his limited athleticism on defense. Absolutely thrilled with him. Just please knock off the 17 foot fadeaway next season.

Mawot Mag - It's not really shocking the season took such a turn when our only two-way player went down. Everyone else on the roster is way better on one side of the ball or the other and it made us too easy to scout and exploit. He was blossoming on both sides of the ball and we need him healthy.

I think this group is a solid starting base for a tournament team. You've got shooting in Spencer (and Mulcahy isn't a bad shooter, just very low volume). You've got passing in Mulcahy. You've got a big man in Cliff. You've got defense in Mag. All four are a good size for their position and they'll all have multiple years in Pikiell's system. Certainly pieces will need to be added and we'll get to that.

Group 2 - The Freshmen

Derek Simpson
- I admit I got a bit suckered into the Geo comparison. But when I watched Geo play in the exhibition against St. John's before his freshman year even began, I tweeted the following: "Geo Baker is already the best passer Rutgers basketball has had in years." Admittedly it was a low bar coming off the Eddie Jordan era but it was clear that the way he saw the court and got the right spot to make a pass was going to make the team better. I saw that in game 1 with Geo. I didn't see that all year with Simpson. That's not to say he can't be a positive contributor to the team but anyone talking about Simpson as a point guard is not worth taking seriously. He did not show the playmaking or distributing attributes necessary. At best he's a combo guard but he's got to shore those things up.

Now he did show some promise. He can drive both ways, but he's got to tighten up his handle. He's got enough quickness, but he's got to stronger with his finishes. His shooting form isn't bad but obviously 10 for 48 is unacceptable from a guard. I'm not saying he can't or won't get better... Wade Taylor on Texas A&M shot 39% on twos and 28% on threes as a freshman and now as a sophomore he's first team All SEC. (Simpson shot 42% and 21% for reference, but on a lower volume. A&M handed Taylor the keys from day 1). Simpson isn't going to morph into Wade Taylor as a sophomore, but he's also not going to be the same player we saw as a freshman. We'll circle back to this uncertainty.

Antwone Woolfolk - Wasn't ready for Big Ten minutes.

Antonio Chol - Wasn't even ready for NEC minutes.

There's some potential here but anybody penciling in average Big Ten level play from these three is wishcasting. If they get there next season it will be a pleasant surprise (or in Chol's case a total shock). If you were talking with a fan of any other Big Ten team about their roster for next year and they were writing in someone with Simpson's stats (and lack of recruiting pedigree) as a starter for 2023-24 your reaction would be: yeah, good luck with that. His numbers are close to Kanye Clary (Penn State) and Joshua Ola-Joseph (Minnesota)... ask yourself if you're expecting big things from those two next year.

Group 3 - Thanks

Aundre Hyatt
- Somebody had to take shots on this team so I do appreciate that Hyatt was at least a willing shooter. Unfortunately we're talking about a guy who is now a 28.5% three point shooter on 274 attempts. You know how many high major players attempted at least 140 three pointers and shot a worse percentage than Hyatt? Just two. The ideal version of Hyatt never materialized and it's not going to pop up in his 6th year of college. When our big four game run happened last season he played 31 minutes total. Playing him 31 minutes a night is way too big an ask. Rooting for you wherever you end up.

Jalen Miller - Thanks for the defensive energy last season -- it was sorely needed. Rooting for you in the CAA.

Oskar Palmquist - Thanks for the offense against Wisconsin and Penn State. Rooting for you in the MAAC.... maybe.

Dean Reiber - Thanks for the lift against Penn State last year when Cliff picked up the early fouls. Rooting for you in C-USA... maybe

I suspect Hyatt is going to the controversial one here. He's obviously a more capable high-major player than the other ones listed. But like I said off the top in order for Rutgers to get better, Mulcahy has to find a different role. And Mag is getting major wing minutes. And we're going to need to get Gavin Griffiths in there. That leaves Hyatt as the odd man out.

So What Does 2023-24 Look Like?
Let's say the roster breaks down like that. Seven returnees plus three incoming freshmen leaves two scholarships available (I do not expect Pikiell to start using the 13th scholarship on a real body... it will be saved for a walk-on).

In that case priority 1, 2, and 3 is finding a point guard in the portal. No messing around. We cannot rely on the enigmatic or uncertain combination of Paul Mulcahy, Derek Simpson, and JaMichael Davis. If Pikiell had landed Kyle Lofton or been able to get Sam Sessoms here (grades may have been an issue) we'd be safely in the field. I wanted Cam Wynter... the guy who just made back to back game winners for Penn State. I don't want to hear that guys don't want to come here because we have Mulcahy and Simpson when Penn State got Wynter to come and play with Jalen Pickett.

I'm picturing a starting lineup of:
Transfer PG
Mulcahy
Griffiths
Mag
Omoruyi

And a bench of Simpson, Spencer, Davis, Ndongo, Woolfolk. I do write in Davis and Ndongo with the assumption that they're at or ahead of where Simpson and Woolfolk were this year. Ndongo is a top 150 guy and Davis has been playing with and against elite players (like Ace Bailey) unlike Simpson who was playing against South Jersey public schoolers. Between the four of them we should have two players able to give capable rotation minutes.

So that gets us to 10. Chol is 11... I'm not really expecting anything out of him. He's incredibly raw and 2023-24 would be his true freshman season if not for the late reclassification. Anything we get from him is gravy. And one scholarship will go to a walk-on. Do we get another transfer...?

This is where I come back to Reiber and Palmquist. I think one will be back. Pikiell likes them and they know the system. We need frontcourt depth especially early on as Mag is coming back from the injury. We know Pikiell values chemistry and it's going to be a lot easier to send one of those guys to the bench once Mag is back as opposed to a transfer who might be unhappy with it. (Or Hyatt, to whom that would also apply I think)

The way this doesn't happen is if Pikiell lands a big fish 4 in the portal and then uses Mag as the ultimate versatile 6th man. This would be a terrific outcome but the portal tends to be very guard heavy and the 4s and 5s tend to outkick their coverage, so to speak. See: Pete Nance ending up at UNC. If he goes this route it has to be a slam dunk that the guy is an upgrade... like whoever this year's version of Matthew Mayer is in the portal.

I give this a low probability. So if Mag is out to start the year we could go small with Spencer in there, or play Palmquist. Will that lineup get destroyed on the boards? Probably, but you'd at least like to think there would be a lot more made shots than the usual Rutgers lineup and thus fewer rebounds to try and grab anyway.

Been typing too long and don't have a good way to end this but I'll probably just spam this thread with my random thoughts and transfer portal targets as we go.
If Pike landed Lofton we wouldn’t have gotten Cam, who won us some games. Lofton is more of the same..a guard who can’t shoot, which would have probably made this team worse. Sessoms is a different story, although the fact that went to awful team and program, while padding his stats, doesn’t exactly scream “winner” to me.
 
I agree with 95% of it, but neither Hyatt or Mag is a B1G caliber 3 or 4. And you'll be asking Mag to rehab like a madman to be ready by early November. Even if he is back, what type of expectations are we placing on him, 8 months from an ACL??

The item associated with Simpson is no different than Kyle Lofton or Marcus Hammond. Both are clearly better than both Simpson and Mulcahy as combo guards. I would ideally take 2 portal guards and assume that Gavin Griffiths plugs into a 24 to 26 minutes a game player.

In terms of Woolfolk/Reiber/Chol, I don't see any of the 3 as starters. Maybe Woolfolk develops into Mag 2.0, but Mag is a better athlete than Woolfolk.

The staff during this rebuild, gambled on unique players.....

Mulcahy as a big PG.....

Myles Johnson as a unique, 6'11 player who could alter shots.

RHJ as a chunky guard, asked to play center in HS for long stretches of his career.

Caleb McConnell as a wing/PG kid, who could handle the ball and showed some versatility.

When you gamble on Jalen Miller, Woolfolk and Reiber to be very good at one aspect of their games and none are elite as defenders, shooters, shot blockers, you have a vacuum of talent.

If Hyatt wants to return, bring him back and let him be the buffer until Mag is closer to 80/85%. Maybe that's not 100% for Mag until 2024-25.

Priority is Wing #1, combo guard #2, JUCO defensive Center at #3.

If someone told me that a player like Deliquan Warren was able to reclassify and come on board for 2023, take that and run with it and I'd pass on the portal for a guard.

Combo guard #1 OR Warren
Spencer
Griffiths
Davis
Simpson

That's a 5 to 6 guard rotation that can develop and grow.

Wings

Mag
Hyatt
Addition via portal

PF,
Ndongo, Woolfolk, Chol

C Cliff, JUCO Center with paint presence.

2024 SG recruiting is pretty important IMO right now, unless something falls into our laps, late in 2023 as a frosh recruit (unlikely).
You’re the guy who didn’t want to go after Marcus Carr saying he gives RU nothing and roll with Paul/Simpson.

Carr having a career year btw
 
If Pike landed Lofton we wouldn’t have gotten Cam, who won us some games. Lofton is more of the same..a guard who can’t shoot, which would have probably made this team worse. Sessoms is a different story, although the fact that went to awful team and program, while padding his stats, doesn’t exactly scream “winner” to me.
This timeline is off. Lofton didn't even enter the portal until after Cam was committed here. I talked about this a couple months ago.

 
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KCG.....Almost perfect write up.

NJH.....you are taking a huge leap of faith with Simpson. PLEASE be right here and on a daily basis remind me how i was wrong. My hope with Simpson is that he progresses and gives us MUCH needed depth and a spark plug and a competent replacement if we have injury, foul trouble or a player not having a good game.
 
This timeline is off. Lofton didn't even enter the portal until after Cam was committed here. I talked about this a couple months ago.

My bad. Didn’t remember we went after Lofton after Cam. I guess he would have at least given us a point guard. With Pike’s refusal to sit Paul, wonder how this would have worked out.
 
KCG.....Almost perfect write up.

NJH.....you are taking a huge leap of faith with Simpson. PLEASE be right here and on a daily basis remind me how i was wrong. My hope with Simpson is that he progresses and gives us MUCH needed depth and a spark plug and a competent replacement if we have injury, foul trouble or a player not having a good game.
I was a skeptic on your hammering on about the team being fatigued and running out of gas. I still don't believe it's quite as impactful as you but it is absolutely a bigger factor than I thought it would be.
 
I was a skeptic on your hammering on about the team being fatigued and running out of gas. I still don't believe it's quite as impactful as you but it is absolutely a bigger factor than I thought it would be.

Griffiths will hit the freshman wall if he plays starters minutes. He should be playing 20-25 minutes to keep him fresh later in the year. Look at Purdue's starting freshman guards which is a huge reason they haven't looked as good in February/March.
 
I agree with 95% of it, but neither Hyatt or Mag is a B1G caliber 3 or 4. And you'll be asking Mag to rehab like a madman to be ready by early November. Even if he is back, what type of expectations are we placing on him, 8 months from an ACL??

The item associated with Simpson is no different than Kyle Lofton or Marcus Hammond. Both are clearly better than both Simpson and Mulcahy as combo guards. I would ideally take 2 portal guards and assume that Gavin Griffiths plugs into a 24 to 26 minutes a game player.

In terms of Woolfolk/Reiber/Chol, I don't see any of the 3 as starters. Maybe Woolfolk develops into Mag 2.0, but Mag is a better athlete than Woolfolk.

The staff during this rebuild, gambled on unique players.....

Mulcahy as a big PG.....

Myles Johnson as a unique, 6'11 player who could alter shots.

RHJ as a chunky guard, asked to play center in HS for long stretches of his career.

Caleb McConnell as a wing/PG kid, who could handle the ball and showed some versatility.

When you gamble on Jalen Miller, Woolfolk and Reiber to be very good at one aspect of their games and none are elite as defenders, shooters, shot blockers, you have a vacuum of talent.

If Hyatt wants to return, bring him back and let him be the buffer until Mag is closer to 80/85%. Maybe that's not 100% for Mag until 2024-25.

Priority is Wing #1, combo guard #2, JUCO defensive Center at #3.

If someone told me that a player like Deliquan Warren was able to reclassify and come on board for 2023, take that and run with it and I'd pass on the portal for a guard.

Combo guard #1 OR Warren
Spencer
Griffiths
Davis
Simpson

That's a 5 to 6 guard rotation that can develop and grow.

Wings

Mag
Hyatt
Addition via portal

PF,
Ndongo, Woolfolk, Chol

C Cliff, JUCO Center with paint presence.

2024 SG recruiting is pretty important IMO right now, unless something falls into our laps, late in 2023 as a frosh recruit (unlikely).
What percent are you putting on Cliff coming back that to me is the big and most important wild card we have for next year
 
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Griffiths will hit the freshman wall if he plays starters minutes. He should be playing 20-25 minutes to keep him fresh later in the year. Look at Purdue's starting freshman guards which is a huge reason they haven't looked as good in February/March.
Wins in November count the same as wins in February. Don't play him 40 minutes but no reason he can't play 30-32. I'm going to get tired of breaking out the Gradey Dick comparison but he's playing 32 a night for Kansas.
 
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Wins in November count the same as wins in February. Don't play him 40 minutes but no reason he can't play 30-32. I'm going to get tired of breaking out the Gradey Dick comparison but he's playing 32 a night for Kansas.

Wins in November are great, but if you can't win in February/March, what's the point?
 
Wins in November are great, but if you can't win in February/March, what's the point?
Because the "freshman wall" is a hypothetical. What if he doesn't hit it? Was that such a problem for Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin last year? Data suggests freshmen get better, not worse, over the course of the season (which is obvious, right? They get used to the speed of the game and all). I don't believe there's any sort of proven February/March dropoff.
 
Because the "freshman wall" is a hypothetical. What if he doesn't hit it? Was that such a problem for Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin last year? Data suggests freshmen get better, not worse, over the course of the season (which is obvious, right? They get used to the speed of the game and all). I don't believe there's any sort of proven February/March dropoff.

Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin are elite athletes. Gavin is an elite shooter, but I don't know if he has the physicality to handle those minutes. I think Ace Bailey will be able to do that in 2024. I hope I'm wrong and Gavin can handle playing 30+ minutes a night. Would love nothing more than to see him light the hoops world on fire next year.
 
Reclamation transfer option: Combo guard JJ Starling, Notre Dame

Originally from NY before finishing his high school ball at La Lumiere in Indiana. 5 star recruit, ranked higher than Jalen Hood-Schifino. Went to Notre Dame and was a big part of why that team stunk. He wasn't good. He might not be good next year. But Providence rolled the dice on a guy in a similar situation: Bryce Hopkins, who went to Kentucky and couldn't get off the bench. This year he was first team All Big East. Anyway Brey is obviously leaving Notre Dame and Starling's draft stock is in the toilet (he was a potential second rounder). If he wants a fresh start it could be worth it.
 
Because the "freshman wall" is a hypothetical. What if he doesn't hit it? Was that such a problem for Paolo Banchero and AJ Griffin last year? Data suggests freshmen get better, not worse, over the course of the season (which is obvious, right? They get used to the speed of the game and all). I don't believe there's any sort of proven February/March dropoff.
It is hypothetical. I would less believe in it if I didn’t see it in my own house. Different sport and HS frosh and not a college frosh.
 
Wins in November count the same as wins in February. Don't play him 40 minutes but no reason he can't play 30-32. I'm going to get tired of breaking out the Gradey Dick comparison but he's playing 32 a night for Kansas.
yes and no....reverse our order of operations and we are a bubble team looking up on selection sunday. With a december/early Jan swoon and coming on with our January/Feb in Feb/Mach
 
Good stuff OP - way to get the ball rolling.
Paul is gone next year, he has lost whatever joy he had in playing hoops.
Hyatt, Reiber, Palm, Miller too

Xfer PG
Cam
Griffiths
Mag
Cliff
-------
Simpson
Xfer wing
Ndongo
Chol
Wolff
Davis
Xfer/FR?

Not sure when Mag is back Ndongo/Chol and even a few minutes of Wolf at the 4
Griffiths might even see a few minutes in short stretches at the 4
Need a Xfer wing - long 3 and D ideally and a couple of guys to fill out the bench

We'll score a bunch more next year - give up more too, but it will be fun to watch
 
Great post OP, and I agree with a lot of what you said. Piggy-backing off what you said, a few things...

1) Roster Movement: I agree overall with your assessment of where the roster will be next year. We won't have another off-season of minimal transfers both in/out of the program.


2) Depth: Last off-season Rutgers received a lot of interest from players in the portal and Rutgers was extremely selective with who they chose to pursue. Pike also thought he had a pretty good group and just needed a finishing touch piece (Cam Spencer) to round out the squad. He was right and formed a really good team but that team had a fatal flaw... depth.

I think Pike will continue to be as selective as he was in the past, but this time with the eye to add 2-3 transfers to ensure we have the depth it takes to win in the B1G. Our season got off to a rocky start with Caleb's knee injury and Paul's shoulder injury (which IMO was limiting him most of the season), but was ultimately dealt a fatal blow when Mag went down.

Pike knows the 22-23 season was ultimately derailed by the lack of quality depth. This team likely was finishes the regular season around 20-11 (12-8) with a double bye for the 2nd straight season if Mag doesn't get hurt, with Rutgers looking at around a 6/7 seed in the tournament. Pike knows that he can't just have 7-8 scholarship guys he can go to war with anymore, he needs to be 9-10 deep in order for us to succeed.


3) Coaching: I'd be surprised if there wasn't some kind of shakeup on the staff. I know Pike love continuity, but after another year of a stagnant offense we need some fresh blood to come in and help get our offense going.

Pike's team will always have an identity of a defensive first, high effort squad. But we need to bring someone on the staff who can essentially be his offensive coordinator for a lack of a better term. We need to create reliable, repeatable offense consistently in order to elevate this program to the next level.

We can scrape our way to 10-10 in the B1G each year by getting into rock fights, but that doesn't win in the tournament and we need to be versatile enough to do things "left-handed" when a team takes away what we want to do. That starts with a big change to our offensive approach
 
My thoughts are that every year since Eugene left everyone panics that the next year will be a flameout with an inability to replace points and yet we made the tournament essentially three years in a row with a fourth on the line. History says we’ll figure it out.
 
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