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NCAA Freshmen - Weekly Ranking + The Ups and Downs

lion1983

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So .... CBS Sports had a worthwhile read ... well more fun than worthwhile (no real meaning at this stage) on its current ranking of NCAA freshmen: https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...lan-harper-earns-freshman-of-the-week-honors/. The start of the article was about Harper winning freshman of the week, followed by their current ranking.

And, talking about the "ups and downs" of being a freshman, consider that Egor Demin (of BYU), the new hottest name of frosh who some think could challenge Cooper Flagg for the #1 NBA draft slot, just went 0-10 FG last night ... that's right, 0-10.

So, for sh*ts and giggles, the stats for each of the top 5 or 10 frosh, so far, at 12/4/24 (all from sports-reference.com):

Flagg: 15.9 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 4.1 ass/g (29 total), 44% FG, 27% 3-point, 71% FT, 48% eFG, 21 Player Efficiency, 1.2 Win Shares ... 10 stl, 10 BS, 22 TO. He has 2 games under 10 points (both blowouts against very low competition), 2 games 20 or more pts, 2 games with 13 points, 1 game with 18 points, and 2 double doubles. .

Harper: 23.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 4.6 ass/g (37), 51% FG, 29% 3-point, 59% 2-point, 79% FT, 55% eFG, 27.8 Player Efficiency, 1.8 Win Shares ... 7 steals, 3 blocks, 16 TO. He has 6 of his 8 games with 20 points or more, 2 with 36 or more points, 1 game with 18 and 1 game with 14 points. Only 3 games of 8 shooting under 50% from the field for the game.

Bailey: Only 6 games because missed the 1st two games. 18.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 0.7 ass/g, 46.7 % FG, 38% 3-point, 51% 2-point, 80% FT, 52.7% eFG, 19.1 Player Efficiency, 0.7 Win Shares ... 9 steals, 4 blocks, 11 TO. Lowest point total is 10 points vs ND, all other games 17 points or higher, including games of 22, 23 and 24 points ... $ of 6 games shooting 50% or better FG. 2 double doubles.

Egor Demin: 13.3 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 5.8 ass/g, 49% FG, 38.5% 3-point, 61% 2-point, 68% FT, 59% eFG, 23.8 Player Efficiency, 1.3 Win Shares ... 13 steals, 6 blocks, 19 TO (all in 8 games). He has a very wide range of performances this season so far: He started very strong, which garnered him a lot of early attention: averaged 17 ppg and 7.5 ass/g in his 1st 4 games ... but since then, the next 4 games, not so good: 3 single digit scoring efforts (8 pts, 16 points, 8 points and 6 points) - under 10 ppg in those 4 games, and 16 assists (4/g), shooting 11-34 FG, 4-19 3-pointers ... 3 of the 4 games were against the better teams BYU played: Ole Miss, NC State and Providence - but none other than Ole Miss real powerhouses. The 3 players listed above all did very well in several games against top competition - Not Demin.

Tre Johnson: 21.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.0 ass/g, 47.7% FG, 42% 3-point, 52.5% 2-point, 85% FT, 57.3% eFG, 22.7 Player Efficiency, 1.2 Win Shares ... In 7 games, 5 steals, 3 blocks and 13 TO (to 14 assists). Double digits in every game, a low of 16 points, highs of 29 and 28 points, 3 times 20 or more points. Leading a =very good Texas team - though Texas has not really played ANYONE, other than an opening game vs Ohio State, who beat Texas ... literally NO OPNE (best team was Ohio State, next best team was Syracuse, 3rd best was ... St. Joes?) A pure scorer, high level - does not do much of anything else.

I have to go, so do not have time to add others: Edgcombe, Queen, Jakocionis (sp) of Illinois and Fland. Maybe later tonight I'll add those, or tomorrow ...or not at all.

Truthfully, it looks to me like there are basically THREE tiers of players: Flagg, Harper and Bailey in Tier 1, Queen and Jakocionis in the next tier - maybe Tre Johnson, and Tre Johnson (if not in the 2nd tier), Fland and Edgecombe (does Edgecombe really belong here at all at this stage - only 11 ppg).
 
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There was an article by Mike DeCourcy on Flagg last night or this morning on Cooper Flagg: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...yond-his-point-total/dece646ed975171f477dbbd2

Flagg is much more polished than Bailey, especially as an all around player, IMO - at this time. Bailey still as as much, or even more upside potential - all to be determined (after all Bailey is just 18 and Flagg about to turn 18).

Here is what DeCourcey, part of his commentary on Flagg, after last night's game:

"If you prefer to be dazzled by breathtaking point totals, Flagg might thrill you on occasion. He rang up 24 in a comfortable victory over Arizona and 26 in that Kentucky loss. He finished this one with 22 points, driving the total into double digits early in the second half – and Duke’s lead, as well – by attacking the middle for a picturesque fadeaway and then driving right past the Tigers’ Chaney Johnson with 17:30 left.

But he never is going to be Kevin Durant.

It’s like the difference between a great action film like “Die Hard” or a foreign-language classic like Truffaut’s “The 400 Blows”. They’re both thrilling in their own way, but one is going to make you work harder to appreciate the genius."

What caught my eye in particular was the comment about Durant - as some have compared Bailey's longer term potential to Durant (Durant was better in his one year in college tan Bailey, by a wide margin, FYI). But the first sentence of this quote and the last short paragraph kind of makes me think of the direct comparison of Bailey vs Flagg.

Of course, I know none of this really matters, just having fun with it.
 
Thanks for posting. Obviously with Dylan and ACE watching the other freshman around the country more closely. By far and away this is the best and deepest class of freshman that have a real chance to make an impact in the first year in the NBA probably in the last 5-10 years. There are so many good ones. I watched Derik Queen last night and he was outstanding . Ian Jackson and Drake Powell of UNC are tremendous. Boogie Fland is a baller and straight out assassin . Edgecomb was good not great and was challenged early but I think once he recovers from the hamstring injury he will be better from here on all. Illinois has a couple as well . Pettiford from Auburn is another Tiny. Archibald. So many impact freshman this year. Really stepping up and doing well against mature 5th year seniors.
 
For what it's worth, Dylan is by far (6.3 and 2nd is 4.9) the highest rated Freshman on BartTorvik using their PRPG! rating. It's essentially the offensive efficiency rating but accounts for the strength of opponent, pace of play, and usage rate. For the usage adjustment, it's assumed that a higher usage rate generally leads to lower efficiency so higher usage increases the PRPG!

He's also ranked 6th overall with the next highest rated freshman at 45th. That gives you an idea on how much better he's been offensively than every other Freshman so far.
 
There was an article by Mike DeCourcy on Flagg last night or this morning on Cooper Flagg: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nca...yond-his-point-total/dece646ed975171f477dbbd2

Flagg is much more polished than Bailey, especially as an all around player, IMO - at this time. Bailey still as as much, or even more upside potential - all to be determined (after all Bailey is just 18 and Flagg about to turn 18).

Here is what DeCourcey, part of his commentary on Flagg, after last night's game:

"If you prefer to be dazzled by breathtaking point totals, Flagg might thrill you on occasion. He rang up 24 in a comfortable victory over Arizona and 26 in that Kentucky loss. He finished this one with 22 points, driving the total into double digits early in the second half – and Duke’s lead, as well – by attacking the middle for a picturesque fadeaway and then driving right past the Tigers’ Chaney Johnson with 17:30 left.

But he never is going to be Kevin Durant.

It’s like the difference between a great action film like “Die Hard” or a foreign-language classic like Truffaut’s “The 400 Blows”. They’re both thrilling in their own way, but one is going to make you work harder to appreciate the genius."

What caught my eye in particular was the comment about Durant - as some have compared Bailey's longer term potential to Durant (Durant was better in his one year in college tan Bailey, by a wide margin, FYI). But the first sentence of this quote and the last short paragraph kind of makes me think of the direct comparison of Bailey vs Flagg.

Of course, I know none of this really matters, just having fun with it.
ESPN has launched a full-court press to hype Flagg as the greatest thing since sliced bread. No matter what Flagg does, ESPN can see no wrong in him. Bailey will not win a popularity contest against Flagg due to the help of ESPN convincing other media Flagg is IT. NBA GMs will determine who has the higher ceiling regarding pro ball.
 
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For what it's worth, Dylan is by far (6.3 and 2nd is 4.9) the highest rated Freshman on BartTorvik using their PRPG! rating. It's essentially the offensive efficiency rating but accounts for the strength of opponent, pace of play, and usage rate. For the usage adjustment, it's assumed that a higher usage rate generally leads to lower efficiency so higher usage increases the PRPG!

He's also ranked 6th overall with the next highest rated freshman at 45th. That gives you an idea on how much better he's been offensively than every other Freshman so far.

I don’t think it adjusts for opponent. The rest is true.
 
ESPN has launched a full-court press to hype Flagg as the greatest thing since sliced bread. No matter what Flagg does, ESPN can see no wrong in him. Bailey will not win a popularity contest against Flagg due to the help of ESPN convincing other media Flagg is IT. NBA GMs will determine who has the higher ceiling regarding pro ball.
ESPN is tied to the to the ACC and the conference is terrible, so hyping Flagg is all they have.
 
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Ace is a better offensive player (total points and shooting percentage from 3, from 2, and the foul line) than Flagg, while Flagg is a better defender and rebounder so far. Flagg does have more assists but also more turnovers.

I’d say those two are pretty much even at this point. Also, I believe the NBA will value Ace slightly more for his “spectacular” shot-making and entertainment value.
 
Harper is number 1 now and will end the year as number 1. His maturity and overall game will make him the number 1 draft pick.
 
I’d put Queen, if not in the first tier of Dylan, Ace and Flagg, then in 1A.
 
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