Agree it starts in the OL and DL. OL has been an area of concern for RU for a few years now. DL was thought to be a strength this year, but has clearly struggled against upper echelon teams. However, Ash completely recognized this is an OL/DL conference so hopefully we can sure this up in next 2 to 3 years.
Next year
- Thread starter vkj91
- Start date
This right here is spot on. Denman has been an absolute disappointment. He just doesn't have the footwork to play tackle. Seymour is still learning his responsibilities and is slow to react, but eventually he'll be an upgrade at RT. Mueller is having flat out a bad year. He was very good last year and expected him to progress off of that, but he hasn't for some unknown reason. Nelson is the only one who will truly be missed as he has really come on this year.
By seasons end you'll have 3 returning starters in Cole, Miller and Seymour. We'll just have to find a center as Applefield will be a year older and should man a guard spot. Center is not an easy position to play especially in shotgun every snap. It's his job to move the interior forward and never be pushed back. This is something Nelson has excelled at where Bujari constantly failed. I don't anticipate much of a drop off in Oline play next year.
So:
we lose 4 contributors on O (Muller, Nelson, Goodwin, Patton)...Grant will be back
We lose 3 contributors on D ( Hamilton, JPO, Cioffi)
From what I've seen this year, two will be hard to replace: JPO & Cioffi
We will be a better team next year than this year. Especially in the receiver ranks.
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There is a reason why it's s 5 to 7 year rebuilt but some people refuse to accept reality of this particular situation.
Even I am more optimistic than 5-7 years. But I also recognize that I'm being optimistic in my thinking and that we'd have to have some good luck to beat that time-frame. And I'm pretty patient. It helps to enjoy the hell out of the tailgates.
DL has the most pressure on it. We need a JUCO DE. I am not high on any DEs in the program outside of Carter and Lumor. If Turay got his act together that would be humongous but I'm not holding my breath. OL we might be okay. Muller is a road grader, not a fit for this O. Nelson has done a nice job. RT has disappointed but I am fine with a youth movement there for the remainder of the season. Applefield and Jackson are potential next men up at C and RG but I could see Vretman pushing for time. He is a nasty prick, an EE and will be 20 next year.
Definitely agree that offensive philosophy and a true RPO QB have helped but talent and experience are a big part as well. If you would have told me that Brendan Mahon would be a top performer in CFB in 2/7 games of this season I would have thought you were crazy.
From an already underperforming OLine, we lose 3 starters (Muller, Nelson, Denman)... though Denman came off the bench last week after his injury against Illinois. We lose about 45% (potentially 65% if Grant doesn't return) of the receptions currently on the roster (Patton 17, Goodwin 13, Arch 9, Agudosi 7... Grant 20), but I'm less worried at WR with Mitchell and Melton coming in, and getting Bailey back from his hand injury. It's the line that drives the bus on offense, and that's where our question marks will lie.
From a DLine which has been the only saving grace of our front 7, we lose 2 4-year starters (Hamilton, JPO). DLine has more depth going in, so the drop shouldn't be as severe... but you don't replace Hamilton and JPO without some dropoff (just as we didn't replace Lambert when he went down without some dropoff). But you also need to combine that with a shaky/rebuilt LB corps, and losing our most experienced/consistent safety.
Hester can't start over him, but losing him will be an upgrade. Some strange logic.
Either way, we lose an experienced player in the two deep and replace with someone who's taken few snaps. Even if Hester/Hampton lock down the starting spots, they aren't going to be in for every play, and there will be an experience gap behind them.
Edit to add: Cioffi is #3 on the team in tackles with 46, and has the most interceptions this season (2) and for his career by far (8). Also tied with Hester for most passes defended.
Tackle #'s aside Cioffi is by no means tough against the run. I think those #'s are more indicative of an ineffective LB core.
But what do you mean by rebuild? Rebuild back to Pre Flood? It's going to take 5 to 7 years to get back to 9-4? 4-3 in the big east. Getting pummeled by a sub .500 UConn squad in the final regular season game of the year? It might take Ash 7 years to get back to that level?
Are we adjusting for conference?
Or are we talking 5 to 7 years to be competitive with the upper echelon conf teams?
If it's that latter, sounds amazing, if it's the former I think people need to get a grip.
I really think that by 2018 or 2019 we'll be back to regular bowl contention, and have rewound to where we were before the Flood recruiting dip happened.
I honestly do not think we will go bowling again until 2018.
Without a good OL, you can't do much in football. See the NY Giants. They are a two time Superbowl MVP QB and an Elite WRs all over the place but they can barely score anything since their OL stinks.
2018 - the stars align with more Ash recruits, systems fully in place and a much easier schedule this this year and next year.
2018:
OOC:
Texas State
at Kansas
Buffalo
Crossover:
Illinois
Northwestern
Wisconsin
So we could realistically be 5-1 to 4-2 before playing a single division game.
Without a good OL, you can't do much in football. See the NY Giants. They are a two time Superbowl MVP QB and an Elite WRs all over the place but they can barely score anything since their OL stinks.
2018 - the stars align with more Ash recruits, systems fully in place and a much easier schedule this this year and next year.
2018:
OOC:
Texas State
at Kansas
Buffalo
Crossover:
Illinois
Northwestern
Wisconsin
So we could realistically be 5-1 to 4-2 before playing a single division game.
I really think you guys are going to pleasantly surprised next year. I'm not saying that we are going to be a 9-3 team but 6-6 will be possible. This team was shell shocked and traumatized from the poor QB play. This will not be the case next year. Also, I'm actually looking forward to see some new blood on that D-line. The LB position will improve and our secondary will be solid. I don't want to run the risk of sounding like RUAL but with some significant luck we can finish 7-5 next year. A 6-6 finish is very realistic.
I thought we started our Big Ten stay with a home and
home with Nebraska, I believed we would not play them
again for a long time. What's up with that?
You're asking the wrong guy. But everybody wanted to play better competition - was one of the biggest complaints about Schiano. We got what we asked for. I'm okay with it as it means we will have to up our game to compete. I think we have and are and will.
Agree. See a chance of surprising next year and getting back to .500, but by 18 and 19 we should be expecting above .500 records.
If we are still toiling below .500 in 2019, then Ash is prob on his way out the door.
I, for one, do not agree that we will be worse next year. In fact, I think we will be much more competitive if a few things happen.
The one spot I see us taking a (small) step back is in our D-line.
Losing Hamilton will hurt. He's coming on strong right now...playing better and better. His loss will be felt. We need to make sure his replacement next year, and his replacement's backup next year, are ready to produce. That may mean going the JUCO route to plug the hole.
I think our O line will be as good or better next year. Most likely better. I expect big things from Applefield, Heeman, an improving Cole, and I really believe Krimmin will emerge as a solid contributor next year....and be a starter the following year. I also think Micah has a chance to be a solid contributor next year as well.
We will have a huge upgrade in QB next year, with a more seasoned GIO, a bigger and stronger Odin, and of course Lewis coming on board.
As far as receivers, what we have coming in/back next year is just superior to what we have currently on the roster. I see a BIG talent upgrade there. Really big.
Mitchell would be starting right now if he were eligible. Then, we have a great chance of getting Grant back.....we get a more seasoned and skilled Harris back, and oh yeah, there's this other guy named Melton to consider. I also love Washington at TE and think that is a position we are not taking advantage of enough.
If Gio continues to progress through the rest of this year, and once his injury heals and he is again a running threat that defenses have to scheme for, that will mean our receivers will have even more space to work with.
Then, on the ground, we'll have Martin and Hicks doing their thing. These guys are not just average backs. They are very good to occasionally great backs, with power, elusiveness and speed.
As someone pointed out, a double-threat QB masks a lot of weaknesses for an offense. If we can get even decent production from our O line, we can have an offense that can hurt people in a lot of ways.
On defense, I believe right now, the quality of next year's team is dependent upon getting at least 2 high performing JUCO's or grad transfers at the linebacker and D line position.
We need a sudden influx of talent at this position....because the guys we have on the roster are not developed enough or talented enough to take our Defense to the next level. If we can score 2 experienced and physical guys capable of coming in and making a difference right away, our defense will take a HUGE step up from this year's production.
Really....
We are already hedging some to 2017 with playing Seymore, Applefield, heeman some on the oline...so losing three starters there kinda gets an astrick
If grant comes back...the receiver will be fine and more athletic with Harris as a soph and Mitchell, Melton and others providing more than the departing seniors
The big loss is Hamilton and JPO. Even Lampert's injury came early so we have a hedge there
Developing Gio can mask for a lot
But we will be RAZOR thin in 2017...and relying on true frosh to provide serious numbers in 2017
We are already hedging some to 2017 with playing Seymore, Applefield, heeman some on the oline...so losing three starters there kinda gets an astrick
If grant comes back...the receiver will be fine and more athletic with Harris as a soph and Mitchell, Melton and others providing more than the departing seniors
The big loss is Hamilton and JPO. Even Lampert's injury came early so we have a hedge there
Developing Gio can mask for a lot
But we will be RAZOR thin in 2017...and relying on true frosh to provide serious numbers in 2017
IMHO these are the exact type of threads that leads to a fanbase thinking a coach is failing when he is not. The expectations in this thread of actually being better are off the charts. You lose a huge chunk of your Oline and D line. You can say underperforming as much as you want but they are experienced and starting. No true freshman is going to come in and perform better than an experienced senior with 3 years plus starting. Experience means almost as much as talent in regards to recognizing blitzes, not taking false steps etc. if the guy behind them were better they would be starting. You can say all you want about another year in weight room etc you are not reloading with 5 stars. Your line on both sides will have huge growing pains and when they do you will blame it on coaching etc. The line play I saw on both sides against Minnesota was solid and won't be easily replaced as some on here think. You're counting on transfers like Mitchell etc to upgrade instantly...didn't you say the same about another 4 star safety who can't crack your starting lineup? This is a major rebuild and you will probably be worse next year. it's going to take years of solid recruiting.
Yes, we are hedging a bit on the line this year, but the line also hasn't been great this year... and there have been noticeable gaps at points when backups have come in.
One of the things that is looked at preseason as an indicator of how well a team will do is the number of starts for their OLinemen. We're going to be way behind in that area (likely fewer than 40 starts across the line heading into 2017.... in comparison to 70 heading into this season), and there will almost certainly be growing pains.
Not to mention that successful OLines are built on chemistry and communication... and we're going to be throwing a lot of new guys together hoping they find the right balance.
Going into next year, we're looking at (numbers to date from sk.com)...
Departing:
Muller: 46 games, 44 starts
Denman: 29 games, 19 starts
Nelson: 23 games, 18 starts
Returning Starters:
Miller (RS Sr) - 22 games, 17 starts
Cole (RS Jr) - 15 games, 6 starts
Returning Backups:
Applefield (RS Jr) - 14 games, 1 start
Heeman (RS Jr) - 10 games, 3 starts
Jackson (RS So) - 8 games
Seymour (RS So) - 6 games
No FBS Game Experience:
RS So: Venesky, Pyrame, Taylor
RS Fr: Krimin, Maietti, Lonsdorf, Howson
Fr: Clark, Vretman, Bowles, Beatty
Turnover is constant in college football. Yeah we lose starters, every team in the nation does.
Pertinent questions then become:
How important are those players. IMO more important on the D-line, but my guess is most good teams lose more good players then we will.
And
How good are the returning and incoming players? Again WR should see a big jump. QB should see a big jump, RB should maintain, LB should be better by experience. DB should at least maintain, but I suspect a jump.
And then of coarse is the coaching. Dude's can poop on the talent all they want, but at some point, if Ash is a good coach it needs to start to show. Is year 2 too early to show some level of coaching ability?
Pertinent questions then become:
How important are those players. IMO more important on the D-line, but my guess is most good teams lose more good players then we will.
And
How good are the returning and incoming players? Again WR should see a big jump. QB should see a big jump, RB should maintain, LB should be better by experience. DB should at least maintain, but I suspect a jump.
And then of coarse is the coaching. Dude's can poop on the talent all they want, but at some point, if Ash is a good coach it needs to start to show. Is year 2 too early to show some level of coaching ability?
I think the popular rhetoric is that the current players are so bad, no amount of coaching would make them better.
Don't agree with that and it may not be popular opinion. While recruiting was a drop off the past 4 years compared to prior years, it wasn't substantially better or worse than a bunch of B1G teams including Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Illinois and some others. Coaching staff needs to develop players in their systems and we should see signs of improvement next year. Most programs no longer give coaches 6-10 years before winning.
Absolutely nothing should take 5-7 years, nothing. Petrino went to Louisville and rebuilt that entire program into a top 10 team in two years, yes it's his 3rd year but he's vying for a dam playoff spot!!!! We are losers to even think that this is going to take 5 years. I have faith that Ash will turn this program around next year and have a winning season in 2018.
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You're comparing what Charlie Strong left to what Kyle Flood left? We're not talking Steve Kragthorpe here.
You guys are spot on.
The new HC and staff have to recognize the areas were they have significant weakness and don't have the time for player development.
Aside from Juco's they can find good players (areas of need) from other programs who are just riding the bench or a 5th year grad student. Pitt example
Neither one of Pitt's recent starting QB's where recruited by Pitt but were brought in via transfers,
Tom Savage (you guys know his story) and Nate Peterman (Tennessee) and both performed well in a critical need area.
I'll be watching your game with Penn State and rooting for Rutgers although it looks like it will be a daunting challenge. At least it looks like Rutgers will be going into the game with a talented QB.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
If Denman does not start for the rest of the year, it would bring the total number of starts across our returning OLine to 39. If he reclaims his starting spot for the rest of the year, it would be 35.
Looking at Phil Steele's breakdown of offensive line starts going into 2016, a returning OLine with 39 starts between them would have ranked 104th nationally in terms of returning experience. In 2015, it would have ranked 115th. In 2014, it would have ranked 104th.
We're going to have fewer starts across our offensive line than 75% of the teams in the country going into next year. Turnover is a constant... but on our offensive line, it is especially high turnover this year.
We're going to be inexperienced on the line next year - and that's before taking into account the level of OLine recruiting we've seen over the last few years. Our line is very likely going to have growing pains.
No rebuilds take 7 years. None. Only a coach's agent says it takes more than 4 years.
If a team hasn't shown serious improvement after 4 years, with the prospects of a big year in Year 5, then that coach is as good as gone.
Even Rutgers, as low as we were after the Shea Error (and we were only slightly better than a team like Lehigh then) were playing competitive, winning football in year 5 and going to the Insight Bowl.
Sorry, no coach these days even gets a 6 year contract to turn it around, let alone 7 years.
Denman, a pretty highly ranked schiano recruit, currently has the 2nd most starts on our O-line. Even when healthy he was splitting time with a Soph who was a d lineman a couple months ago.
Look I understand O-line starts may typically be a good indicator for a teams success. But am I worried about Denman graduating and that spot being taken over by Seymour? Nah, I'm actually feeling pretty good about that, regardless if Seymour has a single start under his belt at that time. Feeling pretty about the other tackle position as well.
yeah like 3 years. Have to show very tangible results by year 4.
disagree about this being a total rebuild.
Rutgers doesn't lose as much as you think. Injuries have already started the process. On offense Denman (injured) has been replaced by Seymour and Hermann. Muller has been pulled at time due to poor play for Applefield and Jackson. Jackson is expected to be the starting center for next year.
On defense Lambert went down with an injury and Davis replaced him. Davis is back next year. The biggest concern for the DL is Hamilton and JPO, but the line does have everyone else returning.
I think you used a general statement that isn't complete correct. Now, we don't know the quality/talent of certain guys. Some are still developing.
OLine strength is partly talent... but it also requires consistency, chemistry, and communication. Not sure why you feel Seymour is somehow going to anchor the line after seeing limited minutes in 6 games this year. Also, while Seymour may play well inserted for Denman with Muller next to him and Nelson at center... that doesn't mean he'll necessarily play as well without as experienced linemen next to him.
In 2008 we played musical linemen until we got the right mix midway through the year... we started 1-5, and finished 7-0. Chemistry and communication on the line matters, as does consistency - which comes with experience.
The right side of the line, since the start of the season, has been horrible. Anything is an improvement. Besides, Denman is out and now Seymour and Hermann have played the position. Muller has been pulled at times for Applefield and Jackson. Rutgers returns at least 6 experience OL for next year. The issue isn't about starters, it's more about depth.
Denman played off the bench against Minnesota, so I don't think he's been replaced at this point. He may even be back in the starting lineup for Indiana.
Maybe not replaced, but his performance has allowed others to steal snaps from him. I think Ash is playing the other guys to avoid the issue of having an entire green line for next year. Also, Ash isn't satisfied with the production of Denman and even Muller for that fact.
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