Objective thread with stats for the REF HATERS

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

	Games	FTM	FTA	FTPG	FGA	3FGA	3FG att%	FT per 2PTA	FT per all
Indiana	25	397	593	23.72	1402	449	32.0	.622	.423
Minnesota	26	443	589	22.65	1604	652	40.6	.619	.367
Illinois	25	387	562	22.48	1454	459	31.4	.559	.384
Ohio State	25	421	545	21.90	1410	558	39.6	.640	.387
Iowa	26	387	545	20.96	1656	666	40.2	.551	.329
Nebraska	25	298	472	18.88	1488	618	41.5	.543	.317
Michigan St	25	329	453	18.12	1467	510	34.8	.473	.309
Maryland	26	330	468	18.00	1376	596	43.3	.600	.340
Purdue	25	320	446	17.84	1417	526	37.1	.501	.315
Michigan	21	276	359	17.10	1205	405	33.6	.449	.298
Penn State	22	268	369	16.77	1389	581	41.8	.457	.266
Wisconsin	26	322	426	16.38	1518	625	41.2	.477	.281
Northwestern	22	263	358	16.27	1283	523	40.8	.471	.279
Rutgers	23	232	372	16.17	1368	451	33.0	.406	.272

I put the high percentages in green and the lows in red...
Rutgers is a middle of the road Big Ten team and should earn calls based on that. Right?

• Rutgers has the lowest FTs per game
• Rutgers has the lowest FTs per 2 point attempt
• Rutgers is second lowest FT per any shot (Penn State lower but notwhen we played em)

Same thing on the womens side but the case is far worse there. The Rutgers women have a winning scoring margin of 20 points per game.. like Ohio State.. but Ohio State is number 3 in FTs per game and Rutgers is dead last.. witht eh losing Big Teams.. and, yes, Rutgers and Ohio State take the same percentage of 3 point shots.. 31.5% of attempts are threes.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

	Games	FTM	FTA	FTPG	FGA	3FGA	3FG mk%	FT per 2PTA	FT per all
Indiana	25	397	593	23.72	1402	449	32.0	.622	.423
Minnesota	26	443	589	22.65	1604	652	40.6	.619	.367
Illinois	25	387	562	22.48	1454	459	31.4	.559	.384
Ohio State	25	421	545	21.90	1410	558	39.6	.640	.387
Iowa	26	387	545	20.96	1656	666	40.2	.551	.329
Nebraska	25	298	472	18.88	1488	618	41.5	.543	.317
Michigan St	25	329	453	18.12	1467	510	34.8	.473	.309
Maryland	26	330	468	18.00	1376	596	43.3	.600	.340
Purdue	25	320	446	17.84	1417	526	37.1	.501	.315
Michigan	21	276	359	17.10	1205	405	33.6	.449	.298
Penn State	22	268	369	16.77	1389	581	41.8	.457	.266
Wisconsin	26	322	426	16.38	1518	625	41.2	.477	.281
Northwestern	22	263	358	16.27	1283	523	40.8	.471	.279
Rutgers	23	232	372	16.17	1368	451	33.0	.406	.272

I put the high percentages in green and the lows in red...
Rutgers is a middle of the road Big Ten team and should earn calls based on that. Right?

• Rutgers has the lowest FTs per game
• Rutgers has the lowest FTs per 2 point attempt
• Rutgers is second lowest FT per any shot (Penn State lower but notwhen we played em)

Same thing on the womens side but the case is far worse there. The Rutgers women have a winning scoring margin of 20 points per game.. like Ohio State.. but Ohio State is number 3 in FTs per game and Rutgers is dead last.. witht eh losing Big Teams.. and, yes, Rutgers and Ohio State take the same percentage of 3 point shots.. 31.5% of attempts are threes.

gonna bump this because a similar post on the women's board has gotten some interest. This was buried, I think because I posted it just after tipoff of the last game. So stats are from that morning.

 

[cubuffsdoug]

So there is some truth to what everyone is saying about the refs in the B1G. They are biased and stink.

 

[kcg88]

Orrrrrr Rutgers misses the most one-and-ones in the conference leaving attempts on the table. And since guys know they struggle at the line they play in a way that avoids contact.

 

[Kbee3]

So there is some truth to what everyone is saying about the refs in the B1G. They are biased and stink.

I don't need to read any stats about that. I watch the games. You can see that certain teams and certain players are given "help" by the officials.

 

[JerseyShoreKnight]

I don't need to read any stats about that. I watch the games. You can see that certain teams and certain players are given "help" by the officials.

Rhymes with Pordan Mohannon.

 

[Russ Wood]

All I know is that I want to be in an arena, covering a game that has TV Ted Valentine and Karl "The King" Hess as two of the three officials. I would be in HEAVEN.

 

[Kbee3]

Rhymes with Pordan Mohannon.

Rhymes with Puka Marza.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Orrrrrr Rutgers misses the most one-and-ones in the conference leaving attempts on the table. And since guys know they struggle at the line they play in a way that avoids contact.

since a team can only face 6 1n1s a game.. and since the difference between Rutgers FT percent.. is like 62 percent and the best FT team is OSU at 77% that's only a 15% difference.. applied to the maximum 6 per game.. that is 0.9.. that would move us to 11th instead of 14th.. and it doesn't begin to take into account how often we drive to the hoop... and sometimes where we should be shooting FTs and maybe get an AND-1.. charges are called too often on us and the basket gets erased, no FTs for us.. and the OTHER team shoots FTs in some cases.

On both the mens and womens side.. Rutgers EARNS and deserves more FT attempts.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Orrrrrr Rutgers misses the most one-and-ones in the conference leaving attempts on the table. And since guys know they struggle at the line they play in a way that avoids contact.

The high amount of fall away shots to avoid contact we take lends some credibility to this statement ...

 

[The RUT]

Maybe our coach needs to work the refs a bit more

 

[RU848789]

	Games	FTM	FTA	FTPG	FGA	3FGA	3FG mk%	FT per 2PTA	FT per all
Indiana	25	397	593	23.72	1402	449	32.0	.622	.423
Minnesota	26	443	589	22.65	1604	652	40.6	.619	.367
Illinois	25	387	562	22.48	1454	459	31.4	.559	.384
Ohio State	25	421	545	21.90	1410	558	39.6	.640	.387
Iowa	26	387	545	20.96	1656	666	40.2	.551	.329
Nebraska	25	298	472	18.88	1488	618	41.5	.543	.317
Michigan St	25	329	453	18.12	1467	510	34.8	.473	.309
Maryland	26	330	468	18.00	1376	596	43.3	.600	.340
Purdue	25	320	446	17.84	1417	526	37.1	.501	.315
Michigan	21	276	359	17.10	1205	405	33.6	.449	.298
Penn State	22	268	369	16.77	1389	581	41.8	.457	.266
Wisconsin	26	322	426	16.38	1518	625	41.2	.477	.281
Northwestern	22	263	358	16.27	1283	523	40.8	.471	.279
Rutgers	23	232	372	16.17	1368	451	33.0	.406	.272

I put the high percentages in green and the lows in red...
Rutgers is a middle of the road Big Ten team and should earn calls based on that. Right?

• Rutgers has the lowest FTs per game
• Rutgers has the lowest FTs per 2 point attempt
• Rutgers is second lowest FT per any shot (Penn State lower but notwhen we played em)

Same thing on the womens side but the case is far worse there. The Rutgers women have a winning scoring margin of 20 points per game.. like Ohio State.. but Ohio State is number 3 in FTs per game and Rutgers is dead last.. witht eh losing Big Teams.. and, yes, Rutgers and Ohio State take the same percentage of 3 point shots.. 31.5% of attempts are threes.

Why go to all the trouble of analyzing FTs? To me the stat to look at is fouls per game to see if the refs are possibly biased or if maybe certain teams do really foul more than others. When looking at fouls per game, RU doesn't look nearly as bad. Although having said that, RU has been called for 358 fouls in B1G games vs. 316 fouls for our opponents, which is 2.1 more fouls per game. I think we play more aggressive defense than other teams, so I don't like at that difference as being a major surprise.

Fouls Per Game
IA - 14.8
MD - 14.8
UM - 15.0
WI - 16.3
RU - 17.4
NE - 17.6
NW - 17.6
PU - 17.6
PSU - 17.8
IL - 17.8
IN - 17.9
MN - 18.6
OSU - 18.1
MSU - 19.7

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/personal-fouls-per-game

 

[fluoxetine]

Have you guys actually watched our offense?

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Why go to all the trouble of analyzing FTs? To me the stat to look at is fouls per game to see if the refs are possibly biased or if maybe certain teams do really foul more than others. When looking at fouls per game, RU doesn't look nearly as bad. Although having said that, RU has been called for 358 fouls in B1G games vs. 316 fouls for our opponents, which is 2.1 more fouls per game. I think we play more aggressive defense than other teams, so I don't like at that difference as being a major surprise.

Fouls Per Game
IA - 14.8
MD - 14.8
UM - 15.0
WI - 16.3
RU - 17.4
NE - 17.6
NW - 17.6
PU - 17.6
PSU - 17.8
IL - 17.8
IN - 17.9
MN - 18.6
OSU - 18.1
MSU - 19.7

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/personal-fouls-per-game

Why IGNORE the FT aspect?

We have guys driving to the hoop all the time and have 2 active centers. refs even up the foul calls from time to time and HOW they do that makes a difference. Calling a charge on us instead of a block denies FTs. Calling a moving pick on us is a TO and no chance for a shot or FTs. Calling touch fouls by backups before the one and ones is just not the equivalent of a foul that results in FTs.

I recall in the Douby years people excusing the refs by saying we don't drive to the hoop.. we don't play inside.

And this was looked at because, on the women's side, the analysis shows clear bias. Having such a good team with a similar scoring margin and wins and 3 point shot to 2 point shot ratio shows

-Rutgers women taking a league-low 15.53 FTs per game and giving opponents 18.24 FTs per game. That differential is not the problem.. we do play more aggressive D.

But OSU takes 21.35 FTs per game and gives up 19.55 FTs per game to foes.

They take 4.60 more FTs per game than opponents while Rutgers takes a league-low 2.71 FEWER FTs per game than their opponents.

Being called for more fouls shows aggressive defense.. and OSU gets called for more fouls. But a good offense on a good team should generate FTs. And Rutgers women are not getting the respect they deserve from the refs.

So, seeing this, and applying the same stats to the men's side showed a similar issue though not as clear-cut because the men are not as dominant.

 

[G- RUnit]

This list also ignores when the actual fouls are called such as teams fouling us when winning, us fouling when losing and the silly make up calls when game is no longer on the line.

 

[RUsojo]

We have like two players who can get to the rim off the bounce so this isn’t very surprising though I do think more bad calls have gone against us then our opponents.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

we all see what's going on.

I don't need statistics.

 

[Classof93CS]

Sorry to offend but this is hardly objective statistical analysis. Being "middle of the pack" doesn't imply that we should "earn" calls based on that. FTs and fouls are a function of talent mismatches, where shots are taken on the floor, which team is behind at the end of games, and style. A true analysis would look at all of those factors and probably a few more.

 

[fluoxetine]

Right.

First of all we aren't middle of the pack at all offensively. We are bad offensively and good defensively, middle of the pack overall.

Second, we absolutely do not play offense in a way to draw fouls. The only player we have who drives to the basket in a strong fashion regularly is Jacob Young, and he gets fouled plenty. RHJ can also draw fouls when he decides to do it.

I do think Mathis gets screwed sometimes but it's because he's developed a (not undeserved, really) reputation for going to the rim completely out of control.

 

[Joey Bags]

Right.

First of all we aren't middle of the pack at all offensively. We are bad offensively and good defensively, middle of the pack overall.

Second, we absolutely do not play offense in a way to draw fouls. The only player we have who drives to the basket in a strong fashion regularly is Jacob Young, and he gets fouled plenty. RHJ can also draw fouls when he decides to do it.

I do think Mathis gets screwed sometimes but it's because he's developed a (not undeserved, really) reputation for going to the rim completely out of control.

Mathis tucks the basketball like a football and runs over defenders which is why it’s always a no-call or offensive foul.

 

[fluoxetine]

Mathis tucks the basketball like a football and runs over defenders which is why it’s always a no-call or offensive foul.

Agreed, but I think because he does that so often he doesn't get calls sometimes even when he probably should.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Michigan one the conference. They took one more free-throw per game than we did. Enough.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

This list also ignores when the actual fouls are called such as teams fouling us when winning, us fouling when losing and the silly make-up calls when the game is no longer on the line.

Since we are 10-10, don't you think the fouling when behind or being fouled with the lead would balance out?

I agree we get the silliest "make-up" calls with refs trying to balance foul calls.

I think TV could help out here by showing the actual number of foul calls even after the bonus and double-bonus are reached.

 

[ClassOf02]

Since we are 10-10, don't you think the fouling when behind or being fouled with the lead would balance out?

I agree we get the silliest "make-up" calls with refs trying to balance foul calls.

I think TV could help out here by showing the actual number of foul calls even after the bonus and double-bonus are reached.

It’s really not that simple. If a game is in reach, the team that’s behind will keep fouling to extend the game as long as possible. If the game is not in reach, then generally speaking there are less fouls and the scrubs come in to play out the clock. Saying we’re 10-10 oversimplifies it. Beyond that, the more important factor is the type of offense a team employs. There are lots of teams in this conference that run an offense that is more likely to draw fouls than we do. As someone mentioned earlier, Michigan essentially took the same # of FTs per game as we did.

 

[knightfan7]

I don't need to read any stats about that. I watch the games. You can see that certain teams and certain players are given "help" by the officials.

(Cough cough) Iowa (cough cough)

 

[pawildcat]

Why go to all the trouble of analyzing FTs? To me the stat to look at is fouls per game to see if the refs are possibly biased or if maybe certain teams do really foul more than others. When looking at fouls per game, RU doesn't look nearly as bad. Although having said that, RU has been called for 358 fouls in B1G games vs. 316 fouls for our opponents, which is 2.1 more fouls per game. I think we play more aggressive defense than other teams, so I don't like at that difference as being a major surprise.

Fouls Per Game
IA - 14.8
MD - 14.8
UM - 15.0
WI - 16.3
RU - 17.4
NE - 17.6
NW - 17.6
PU - 17.6
PSU - 17.8
IL - 17.8
IN - 17.9
MN - 18.6
OSU - 18.1
MSU - 19.7

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/stat/personal-fouls-per-game

Maybe I should complain more as a Northwestern fan. According to this, we get about three more fouls a game called on us than Maryland, and from watching both teams I can say with confidence that Maryland is a LOT more aggressive on defense than NU. Apparently we even have slightly more fouls per game than Rutgers.

 

[fluoxetine]

But why do the refs hate Michigan State???

(Must be lack of name recognition IMO)

 

[BillyC80]

Not sure if there’s a systemic bias against Rutgers by the refs, but I’m pretty sure, based on what I’ve seen, that there is a bias in favor of certain players, and Luka Garza is exhibit A.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

It’s really not that simple. If a game is in reach, the team that’s behind will keep fouling to extend the game as long as possible. If the game is not in reach, then generally speaking there are less fouls and the scrubs come in to play out the clock. Saying we’re 10-10 oversimplifies it. Beyond that, the more important factor is the type of offense a team employs. There are lots of teams in this conference that run an offense that is more likely to draw fouls than we do. As someone mentioned earlier, Michigan essentially took the same # of FTs per game as we did.

You say "its not that simple" and then go on to cherry-pick Michigan using the stats I provided. Now that is being too simple. Of course there may be outliers for who another explanation is needed. And still, Michigan takes more FTs er 2shot attempt than we do. The rest of your response is completely hypothetical and anecdotal and unsupported.

The offensive systems other teams run? They do produce shots and free throws that show up in stats right?

 

[ClassOf02]

You say "its not that simple" and then go on to cherry-pick Michigan using the stats I provided. Now that is being too simple. Of course there may be outliers for who another explanation is needed. And still, Michigan takes more FTs er 2shot attempt than we do. The rest of your response is completely hypothetical and anecdotal and unsupported.

The offensive systems other teams run? They do produce shots and free throws that show up in stats right?

I’m the one cherry picking? The entire premise of this thread is cherry picking.

We are who we are 99% because of us (and that’s not a criticism...we’re pretty damn respectable), not the officials. Yes they sometimes suck. But every team in this conference thinks the officials suck more for their team than others. You’re looking hard to for data that supports a hunch you have in my opinion. Nothing wrong with that, but others will just disagree.

 

[fluoxetine]

I’m the one cherry picking? The entire premise of this thread is cherry picking.

We are who we are 99% because of us (and that’s not a criticism...we’re pretty damn respectable), not the officials. Yes they sometimes suck. But every team in this conference person in the entire world thinks the officials suck more for their team than others. You’re looking hard to for data that supports a hunch you have in my opinion. Nothing wrong with that, but others will just disagree.

FYP

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I’m the one cherry picking? The entire premise of this thread is cherry picking.

We are who we are 99% because of us (and that’s not a criticism...we’re pretty damn respectable), not the officials. Yes they sometimes suck. But every team in this conference thinks the officials suck more for their team than others. You’re looking hard to for data that supports a hunch you have in my opinion. Nothing wrong with that, but others will just disagree.

I showed stats. The numbers show what they show.

You pick out one team to try to disprove all the rest of the numbers and what they imply.

 

[fluoxetine]

I showed stats. The numbers show what they show.

You pick out one team to try to disprove all the rest of the numbers and what they imply.

What do you think they imply?

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

What do you think they imply?

I think that is rather obvious and already explained.

I'll even explain a bit more. The anecdotal counter-argument, that the stats do not account for fouling to make a comeback, didn't even bother to try to show that Rutgers fouls more in those situations and, therefore, Rutgers stats on FTs are skewed. Fact is, and if you have seen the games you implicitly know this, that is not Pike's style. And we have been blown out a few times in losses.. more than we have blown out teams. So, if anything, that anecdotal counter-argument fails to actually support the counter-argument.

And last night's game should also have shown the season stats hold true. Indiana was just as aggressive.. look at blocks and steals and off rebounds... same points in the paint... yet took more FTs.. despite fouling us at the end. We were the higher seed so the "better" team getting the calls test fails to convince. The only thing to support more FTs for them is that we took 7 more 3pt shots than they did... but we took 4 more shots than they did... so that doesn't explain it either.

So, yeah, I think this implies that Indiana got a friendlier whistle to send them to the line more and Indian was allowed to challenge our 2 point shots without whistles. And I think the season stats imply the same thing, overall.

 

[fluoxetine]

You are starting from the null hypothesis that all teams should shoot equal numbers of free throws on average, but this isn't true! Some teams commit and/or draw more shooting fouls than others!

Honestly, if you have a video game system in your house anywhere buy NBA 2K21 (or an older version to save money!), put on some CPU v CPU games and come back at the end to look at the stats. You will notice that even with perfectly unbiased robot refs the fouls and FTs will still be uneven a lot!