One ranking has us #101/353

[kcg88]

http://www.barttorvik.com/

Bart Torvik produces data-driven rankings similar to Ken Pomeroy. His 2018-19 projects are out and Rutgers is 101st. His metric had us at #120 each of the past two seasons.

His projections for Mathis and Harper are both very low, but I think they'd cannibalize his projected numbers for Kiss and Thiam more than it would move us up in the rankings. Other than injury there's 0% chance those two combine for just 6 PPG.

With so many newcomers I'd imagine it's tough for a model like this to forecast Rutgers. But I'd also anticipate Pomeroy's model to come in around the same number, maybe a bit lower (Pomeroy has us 130/135 the past two years as opposed to Torvik's 120/120).

Entire B1G:
8. Michigan State
20. Michigan
23. Wisconsin
24. Indiana
33. Iowa
38. Maryland
39. Nebraska
41. Purdue
42. Ohio State
48. Northwestern
49. Illinois
54. Penn State
79. Minnesota
101. Rutgers

 

[HallX2]

With Seton Hall at 22 I’d be somewhat suspicious of his methodology. Don’t think we deserve that high. But I’d be happy if he is proven prescient

 

[Mr Magoo]

http://www.barttorvik.com/

Bart Torvik produces data-driven rankings similar to Ken Pomeroy. His 2018-19 projects are out and Rutgers is 101st. His metric had us at #120 each of the past two seasons.

His projections for Mathis and Harper are both very low, but I think they'd cannibalize his projected numbers for Kiss and Thiam more than it would move us up in the rankings. Other than injury there's 0% chance those two combine for just 6 PPG.

With so many newcomers I'd imagine it's tough for a model like this to forecast Rutgers. But I'd also anticipate Pomeroy's model to come in around the same number, maybe a bit lower (Pomeroy has us 130/135 the past two years as opposed to Torvik's 120/120).

Entire B1G:
8. Michigan State
20. Michigan
23. Wisconsin
24. Indiana
33. Iowa
38. Maryland
39. Nebraska
41. Purdue
42. Ohio State
48. Northwestern
49. Illinois
54. Penn State
79. Minnesota
101. Rutgers

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the #101 ranking. However, the gap between us at 14th in the B1G and 13th place (or most of the rest of the pack) is way to large IMO. It's like there's 12 teams, then Minnesota, then us. I think we're going to have a tough year record-wise, but this makes it look like we don't even belong....but then again, an injury to player like Baker, and we might not win a B1G game.

 

[bowlgoal]

http://www.barttorvik.com/

Bart Torvik produces data-driven rankings similar to Ken Pomeroy. His 2018-19 projects are out and Rutgers is 101st. His metric had us at #120 each of the past two seasons.

His projections for Mathis and Harper are both very low, but I think they'd cannibalize his projected numbers for Kiss and Thiam more than it would move us up in the rankings. Other than injury there's 0% chance those two combine for just 6 PPG.

With so many newcomers I'd imagine it's tough for a model like this to forecast Rutgers. But I'd also anticipate Pomeroy's model to come in around the same number, maybe a bit lower (Pomeroy has us 130/135 the past two years as opposed to Torvik's 120/120).

Entire B1G:
8. Michigan State
20. Michigan
23. Wisconsin
24. Indiana
33. Iowa
38. Maryland
39. Nebraska
41. Purdue
42. Ohio State
48. Northwestern
49. Illinois
54. Penn State
79. Minnesota
101. Rutgers

I'm actually pleasantly surprised with the #101 ranking. However, the gap between us at 14th in the B1G and 13th place (or most of the rest of the pack) is way to large IMO. It's like there's 12 teams, then Minnesota, then us. I think we're going to have a tough year record-wise, but this makes it look like we don't even belong....but then again, an injury to player like Baker, and we might not win a B1G game.

Basketball will make huge strides in the next 3 seasons so don’t worry about rankings right now. This season is about watching some key new players develop and a shift in scoring from dependence of one player to a team effort with multiple scoring options and a defense that now has depth. Nothing will come easy in the Big 10 but we are now on our way to where we need to be. Watch and enjoy it because Pikiell is going to succeed.

 

[shields]

Northwestern is not that good.

 

[RUTrack94]

Top 3rd!!!!!! Go RU!!!!!!!!!

 

[RAA-1]

This ranking matrix has flaws. No way these teams will be better than RU.

89 Fresno St.
90 Buffalo
92 Grand Canyon
93 UNC Greensboro
95 UC Irvine
98 North Texas
99 Wofford

 

[Russ Wood]

This ranking matrix has flaws. No way these teams will be better than RU.

89 Fresno St.
90 Buffalo
92 Grand Canyon
93 UNC Greensboro
95 UC Irvine
98 North Texas
99 Wofford

Ok I'm curious. Why not?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I like this site.
My early prediction which is based on little info and will definitely change.....

We appear to have a season that is worse than last year. We do worse than 15-19, but we actually finish ranked by kenpom and this site in the top 100 (30+ spots better than last year). I think we will improve a lot as the season progresses, but the problem is the games get tougher as the season progresses. I expect a lot of close losses to good teams. Casual fan doesn't see much, but those that follow closely will see a lot of progress.

 

[Russ Wood]

I like this site.
We do worse than 15-19, but we actually finish ranked by kenpom and this site in the top 100 (30+ spots better than last year).

Something dramatic would have to happen for any team to accomplish this.

For example, last season only three teams that won 15 games were in the Top-100 at Kenpom.com and just one team with less than 15 wins was in the Top-100. That team was Iowa and they were No. 88. They accomplished that on the strength of a very efficient offense (1.16 points per possession which ranked No. 19 in the nation) conversely their defense was not very efficient at all.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Something dramatic would have to happen for any team to accomplish this.

For example, last season only three teams that won 15 games were in the Top-100 at Kenpom.com and just one team with less than 15 wins was in the Top-100. That team was Iowa and they were No. 88. They accomplished that on the strength of a very efficient offense (1.16 points per possession which ranked No. 19 in the nation) conversely their defense was not very efficient at all.

Last year I see...

11-20 Wake Forest ranked #89
12-20 Vandy at # 91
11-20 DePaul at #99

Now if the B1G as a conference doesnt improve it would be difficult.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You do though raise the question of how they get in to top 100. You need to be a +7 to get there (offensive efficiency MINUS defensive efficiency).

You referenced Iowa 116.6 OE minus 108.4 DE equals +8.14

RU was 99.2 minus 96.2 equals 3.0 last year.

My math would be 105 OE minus 98 DE. The assumption being we are much improved offensively, but take a small step backwards defensively.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I actually see BART having it 103.4 minus 96.9 = +6.5.

I am sure we can easily rip apart BART's projections based on personnel and other assumptions. However their base of a 13-18 record and #101 ranking AND OE and DE numbers actually fits like a glove of my thoughts coming in to the season. I disagree individually who puts up what numbers, but I am not sure that is all that important.

 

[Russ Wood]

Last year I see...

11-20 Wake Forest ranked #89
12-20 Vandy at # 91
11-20 DePaul at #99

Now if the B1G as a conference doesnt improve it would be difficult.

LOL well I guess that's what I get for stopping my search at 12-. Good find my man. Still Wake and Vandy both had offenses that were quite efficient (Vandy at 1.15 and Wake at 1.10 points per possession) DePaul actually had a defense ranked in the top-50 in efficiency.

I'm not saying you can't get into the Top-100 with fewer than 15 wins, just that something dramatic would have to happen to get there. Personally I'd rather have >15 wins and be ranked outside of the top-100 than have <15 wins and ranked in the top-100.

Or better still have >15 wins and be ranked In the top-100. That's a win-win.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don't think it takes all that much to stay/get in kenpom 100 if you play in a top conference and are competitive.

Last year our average B1G score was 57.9-69.8. If that gets trimmed up to 64-71 all of a sudden we are probably right there.

There is no doubt with you and I that the 57.9 PPG in B1G has to improve for us to move up the ladder. Where I think you and I agree, but are in the minority in a group of Rutgers fans is that #3 was a big part of the 57.9. It wasn't like we were averaging 57.9 despite having #3. #3 was a huge impact on the 69.8 not being 73 or 74 though (defensive side).

 

[mikefla]

I like our 101 ranking

Buffalo at 90 was pretty darn good last year
they had their highest ranked class in school history in 2017
they won the MAC last year
beat #12 Arizona in the NCAAs

 

[DirtyRU]

Ok I'm curious. Why not?

Wait a minute... who the phuck is Grand Canyon?!

 

[PiscatawayMike]

Wait a minute... who the phuck is Grand Canyon?!

A school with a solid hoops program, led by "Thunder Dan."

http://arizonasports.com/story/1419708/gcu-head-coach-dan-majerle-best-job-country/

 

[Russ Wood]

Wait a minute... who the phuck is Grand Canyon?!

Oh, just a program that has won 71 games in the past three seasons. They are in the Western Athletic Conference

 

[DirtyRU]

Oh, just a program that has won 71 games in the past three seasons. They are in the Western Athletic Conference

Hang on, lemme crawl out from this rock that I've been under. :)

 

[Russ Wood]

Hang on, lemme crawl out from this rock that I've been under. :)

RU should schedule them in a home-and-home

 

[biazza38]

RU should schedule them in a home-and-home

Hell no!! I’ve seen videos of their home court. No thank you. Their fans get up.

 

[blockm2]

Wait a minute... who the phuck is Grand Canyon?!

while Grand Canyon has been coming on in basketball, they remaining a sleazy for profit university that is sucking money from the federal government to give to their shareholders.

And though I despise the waste that is rise in tuition at universities over the years, for profit schools take that stuff to another level and should be shuttered

 

[Russ Wood]

Hell no!! I’ve seen videos of their home court. No thank you. Their fans get up.

HAHAHA yup. They get good fan support. Nice facilities too. The brick wall is a nice touch in the practice facility obviously it has padding on it

 

[APKnight]

LOL. He surely has a flawed methodology.

 

[RUfinal4]

This ranking matrix has flaws. No way these teams will be better than RU.

89 Fresno St.
90 Buffalo
92 Grand Canyon
93 UNC Greensboro
95 UC Irvine
98 North Texas
99 Wofford

Do the rankings take into consideration conference? North Texas will probably win more conference games than Rutgers and can probably finish above 500. Rutgers may struggle to get past the 10-12 win total. We may only have 6-7 guaranteed wins and then the conference, SHU, Miami, and St Johns.

Rutgers will need to win 1 of the non-conference games I mentioned and then find a way to win 3-4 conference games.

winning 1 conference game, losing to SHU / SJU / Miami, and only winning 5 OOC will be devastating to this team.

 

[dkostus]

Do the rankings take into consideration conference? North Texas will probably win more conference games than Rutgers and can probably finish above 500. Rutgers may struggle to get past the 10-12 win total. We may only have 6-7 guaranteed wins and then the conference, SHU, Miami, and St Johns.

Rutgers will need to win 1 of the non-conference games I mentioned and then find a way to win 3-4 conference games.

winning 1 conference game, losing to SHU / SJU / Miami, and only winning 5 OOC will be devastating to this team.

I think we can go 2-1 in the SHU/Miami/SJU games

 

[kcg88]

Do the rankings take into consideration conference? North Texas will probably win more conference games than Rutgers and can probably finish above 500. Rutgers may struggle to get past the 10-12 win total. We may only have 6-7 guaranteed wins and then the conference, SHU, Miami, and St Johns.

Rutgers will need to win 1 of the non-conference games I mentioned and then find a way to win 3-4 conference games.

winning 1 conference game, losing to SHU / SJU / Miami, and only winning 5 OOC will be devastating to this team.

These rankings are based on team strength only.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think we can go 2-1 in the SHU/Miami/SJU games

Give me a pen and I would sign up for 1-2 without ANY hesitation.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Give me a pen and I would sign up for 1-2 without ANY hesitation.

When you look at our 3 least winnable games by the site
1. at Michigan State
2. at Miami
3. at Seton Hall

all other games on the schedule are more winnable.

 

[dkostus]

When you look at our 3 least winnable games by the site
1. at Michigan State
2. at Miami
3. at Seton Hall

all other games on the schedule are more winnable.

Interesting. Haven't both Miami and SHU lost a ton off last year's rosters? SHU, like us, returns only 5 guys that played last year, and lost those 4 big seniors.

 

[kcg88]

Interesting. Haven't both Miami and SHU lost a ton off last year's rosters? SHU, like us, returns only 5 guys that played last year, and lost those 4 big seniors.

St. John's is going to have one of the best backcourts in the country if/when Heron is cleared.

 

[dkostus]

St. John's is going to have one of the best backcourts in the country if/when Heron is cleared.

Agreed... the post I was responding to listed @Seton Hall and @Miami as two of our hardest games, and maybe that's just because they're away. SJU @ home will be tough but hopefully Mullin continues to be a garbage coach

 

[kcg88]

Agreed... the post I was responding to listed @Seton Hall and @Miami as two of our hardest games, and maybe that's just because they're away. SJU @ home will be tough but hopefully Mullin continues to be a garbage coach

I think I read it as SJU, somehow.

SHU and Miami definitely have wide outcome possibilities, same as us. Miami has a short, slick PG and some shooters to dish to but their defense won't be great and rebounding is a question mark. SHU has Myles Powell who will be great but who knows how the rest of the mix of transfers and inexperienced guys will shake out.

I think one win in these three games is a good goal. 2-1 is great, 3-0 is amazing, 0-3 is disappointing unless they're all super-close.

 

[RUich]

This ranking matrix has flaws. No way these teams will be better than RU.

89 Fresno St.
90 Buffalo
92 Grand Canyon
93 UNC Greensboro
95 UC Irvine
98 North Texas
99 Wofford

'

Just keep in mind that nobody believed Kansas was better than our FB team either.

 

[TODDB33]

Hang on, lemme crawl out from this rock that I've been under. :)

Plus you spelled a word wrong

 

[hoquat63]

Plus you spelled a word wrong

“It’s a damn poor mind that can only think of one way to spell a word” Andrew Johnson

 

[Russ Wood]

Agreed... the post I was responding to listed @Seton Hall and @Miami as two of our hardest games, and maybe that's just because they're away. SJU @ home will be tough but hopefully Mullin continues to be a garbage coach

Is Mullin that bad of a coach? That's a serious question btw, I don't pay attention to SJU. I don't even pay attention to the Big East for the most part. When he was hired and put together his staff I didn't think he made good choices, but is he really a bad coach?

 

[dkostus]

Is Mullin that bad of a coach? That's a serious question btw, I don't pay attention to SJU. I don't even pay attention to the Big East for the most part. When he was hired and put together his staff I didn't think he made good choices, but is he really a bad coach?

From the few SJU games I've seen they seem disorganized, and most of the time when theres a timeout Mullin is off to the side with an assistant doing the coaching or drawing up a play. That's not necessarily bad, but I've seen other people bring up his coaching which validated my own thoughts. Could still be wrong

 

[Russ Wood]

From the few SJU games I've seen they seem disorganized, and most of the time when theres a timeout Mullin is off to the side with an assistant doing the coaching or drawing up a play. That's not necessarily bad, but I've seen other people bring up his coaching which validated my own thoughts. Could still be wrong

Could be right though. Thank you for the feedback