Optimistic View: Why we'll still finish 6-12 in the B1G

[BillyC80]

We win 5 of 7 remaining at the RAC, and 1 of 7 remaining away from the RAC.

Why? Because I believe the PSU game was an outlier offensively, even for us, and that our defense and homecourt will provide just enough for us to win 5 games at the RAC, with at least a mediocre to good (ie, not piss poor) shooting percentage in those 5 games.

If I'm right about the PSU game being an outlier, along with our other 3 conference games all being on the road so far, then it stands to reason we would be 0-4 at this point.

Btw, PSU is young but better than we thought, so if we defend other teams at home the same way and make a few shots, getting 5 of 7 at the RAC does not have to be a pipe dream.

 

[ScarletDave]

Let's do it!

 

[knights1212]

It is possible. We need to believe.

 

[Local Shill]

So we're beating 5 (FIVE!) of Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland and Illinois?!?!

Would be amazing but it's nearly impossible to fathom.

 

[BillyC80]

Yes. It sounds monumental when you name the other teams, but the truth is that it's not about them, it's about us.

We know we can compete with all of them.

 

[Local Shill]

Yes. It sounds monumental when you name the other teams, but the truth is that it's not about them, it's about us.

We know we can compete with all of them.

RU has truly competed in only 1 of four conference games if we're being honest. The other three were over midway though the second half or earlier.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

So we're beating 5 (FIVE!) of Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Maryland and Illinois?!?!

Would be amazing but it's nearly impossible to fathom.

I'd love 4

 

[Scarlet Shack]

I really think we get 6 still....but think that a win Thursday may be a necessity to get some confidence to get those 6

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Kenpom has us at 3.68 wins which rounds up to 4.

LOSE by 5 points, ranking stays the same and kenpom has us at 3.34 wins which is 3
WIN by 5 points, you are at 4.34 wins + the added probability boost in all games because of increased ranking and you could be at say 4.51 wins which is rounded to 5.

By my logic this is a doubleheader.

 

[bac2therac]

Yes. It sounds monumental when you name the other teams, but the truth is that it's not about them, it's about us.

We know we can compete with all of them.

sorry its about them not us...we need subpar performances from each and everyone of them to win. RU can compete true, but all these teams have more talent and winning is another issue, so its not about us, our best game and their best will go to them everytime..each one of these schools have way better wins than RU and more than half are competing for a NCAA bid.

 

[bac2therac]

I'd love 4

I would take three...Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I would take three...Illinois, Michigan, and Penn State

No chance at Penn State...Maryland or Northwestern perhaps.:smiley:

 

[Local Shill]

I look at it like this - football and men's hoops combined for 2 Big Ten wins in the 2016-16 school year. It's nearing mid-January and we still have zero for 2016-17. So we need 3 to make any kind of tangible argument this thing is moving in the right direction. I know it's not apples to apples, but 2-16 (or worse) for basketball) will leave a very sour taste in my mouth.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

I really think we get 6 still....but think that a win Thursday may be a necessity to get some confidence to get those 6

Agree. I predicted 6-12 in B1G-play and believe we can get there... but only if we beat Northwestern Thursday night. IMHO, a loss vs. the Wildcats and we're staring at a 3- or 4-win B1G season. Conversely, a win on Thursday evening and I think we'll go 6-8 in our final 14 league games entering the B1G tourney.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

There is a matchup issue that requires RU to get to 66-70 points to win any conference game and right now, I can feel good about 2 of the 3 guards most nights, accounting for about 40 to 50% of those points, depending on tempo of the game.

Freeman scoring is really matchup related, so find the rosters that are not overly bigger or quicker and those may the games we thrive in. Outside of Freeman, Williams, Nigel and Corey, how can anyone find another 25-30 points needed to get to 70??

The matchup that frees up Williams to play more minutes, is against a smaller lineup, otherwise we can only play 2 of the 3 guards at a time.....I mentioned at the beginning of the season that RU was a guard short, because we need a true 4th guard that can score, so we always maintain 3 scoring threats on the floor at the same time from 3....right now that's limited to 2 most possessions, where another guard would generate that extra 3 to 4 three point attempts each games.....hit two of those 4 and suddenly the breakdown of PPG is better.

The "stealing" of minutes with Thiam at the start of halves in the OOC at guard (with Nigel and Mike off the bench) was the only way to find 6-8 extra minutes of playing time for a potential one or two 3's per game, but as the lineups are faster and quicker in league play, Thiam has to play less guard, it's harder to find those points.

Find those extra points per game from Laurent/Thiam/Eugene....right now, that's the scoring gap on the roster....Laurent's points at Iowa is the difference between a 5-6 point loss and a 10-14 point loss. RU needs 15 PPG between Thiam/Laurent and Eugene the rest of the way to get anything near 5 to 6 B1G wins....if we steal points from the SF spot, then yes....Right now, I haven't seen anything that gives me the confidence we can expect that spike in production. If it does, then everything changes.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If we reduce turnovers by 3 and convert more OREB to points you can eek out 6-8 points. No doubt the lack of production from the 3 is a killer. We desperately need NOW what Thiam might give us in 1-3 years.

I want Sanders and Johnson to be in the 32 minute area. If Williams gets 26 that means there is only 10 minutes where all 3 are on the court together.

 

[RUJMM78]

There is a matchup issue that requires RU to get to 66-70 points to win any conference game and right now, I can feel good about 2 of the 3 guards most nights, accounting for about 40 to 50% of those points, depending on tempo of the game.

Freeman scoring is really matchup related, so find the rosters that are not overly bigger or quicker and those may the games we thrive in. Outside of Freeman, Williams, Nigel and Corey, how can anyone find another 25-30 points needed to get to 70??

The matchup that frees up Williams to play more minutes, is against a smaller lineup, otherwise we can only play 2 of the 3 guards at a time.....I mentioned at the beginning of the season that RU was a guard short, because we need a true 4th guard that can score, so we always maintain 3 scoring threats on the floor at the same time from 3....right now that's limited to 2 most possessions, where another guard would generate that extra 3 to 4 three point attempts each games.....hit two of those 4 and suddenly the breakdown of PPG is better.

The "stealing" of minutes with Thiam at the start of halves in the OOC at guard (with Nigel and Mike off the bench) was the only way to find 6-8 extra minutes of playing time for a potential one or two 3's per game, but as the lineups are faster and quicker in league play, Thiam has to play less guard, it's harder to find those points.

Find those extra points per game from Laurent/Thiam/Eugene....right now, that's the scoring gap on the roster....Laurent's points at Iowa is the difference between a 5-6 point loss and a 10-14 point loss. RU needs 15 PPG between Thiam/Laurent and Eugene the rest of the way to get anything near 5 to 6 B1G wins....if we steal points from the SF spot, then yes....Right now, I haven't seen anything that gives me the confidence we can expect that spike in production. If it does, then everything changes.

Coach Rice mentioned many times that Rutgers needed to score at least 70 points to be successful against league competition.It didn't happen then or right now which is the reason the team keeps losing league games.Squeezing another 5-10 points from this roster is the difference between winning an losing.Where are the points going to come from?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The good news in 5 of the 6 games we have played 73 was the magic # AND the pace of those games were probablyhigher than we will average the rest of the way.

The magic number may be 69-70.

DEFENSE makes it possible to win, OFFENSE will get us the W

 

[mikefla]

We wont beat anyone if 7 of the guys in our 10 man rotation get 1 bucket or less(!)

Our guys know it...our coach knows it,,,,,,and they are working at it as we speak

 

[cRURah]

Count me in!

 

[mrslate]

I would sign up for 3 right now.

 

[RUTrack94]

Before talking 6 ... Can RU win one first?

 

[LotusAggressor]

Unless the perimeter shooting improves exponentially, it will take terrible performances from those teams for RU to win even 2 of those games.

 

[BobRC72]

No chance at Penn State...Maryland or Northwestern perhaps.:smiley:

Watched Maryland beat IU last nite. Don't see it.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Watched Maryland beat IU last nite. Don't see it.

inside joke

 

[Mr Magoo]

We win 5 of 7 remaining at the RAC, and 1 of 7 remaining away from the RAC.

Why? Because I believe the PSU game was an outlier offensively, even for us, and that our defense and homecourt will provide just enough for us to win 5 games at the RAC, with at least a mediocre to good (ie, not piss poor) shooting percentage in those 5 games.

If I'm right about the PSU game being an outlier, along with our other 3 conference games all being on the road so far, then it stands to reason we would be 0-4 at this point.

Btw, PSU is young but better than we thought, so if we defend other teams at home the same way and make a few shots, getting 5 of 7 at the RAC does not have to be a pipe dream.

Wow, love the optimism. Realistically, I think we can beat Iowa, Nebraska, or Illinois. Michigan has been slumping so who knows. I can't see us beating NW, Maryland, or Minnesota.

It's gong to be tough to win any of our road games but for some reason, I think we hang with Ohio State.

 

[80RU]

Playing our best we have competed well for big chunks of the tough games -- I am concerned that we faded towards the end of all of our power 6 games (power 5 plus the BE), even the one we won. I was hoping that with the new depth and size we would be more prepared to go wire to wire. I hope they find a way to pick up the end game; maybe then you will be proven right.