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OT: 2018 Kentucky Derby. An historic year? Odds say so.

WhiteBus

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Oct 4, 2011
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Yes it is over two weeks away. However, all the major stakes races are complete. So it's worth talking about early, especially as this is one of the most talented 3 year old crops in years. Plus history can be made by the top 3 favorites. The top 2 horses, Justify and Magnum Moon are undefeated and with a victory would be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby having never run as a 2year old in 136 years. Going back to the 1882, the 8th running of the Derby a horse named Apollo is the only horse to win it as an unraced 2 year old.
The 3rd favorite, Mendelssohn can become the first European trained horse to win the Derby. As in its never happened.
Add in there are another 6,7 horses that are more than talented to win the Derby and more.
The other reason I post this early is a change in handicapping that I and many others are adopting if you have the time. Reading past performances is becoming a thing of the past as being your only handicapping tool. It is now just a supplement to picking out you favorite. Today everyone can easily watch every race all these horses have run on video from the comfort of your home. Actually watching a horse win, or not is so much better than reading the charts.
It is how I've picked many Derby winners over the last 10 years. Has been a great tool in winning long shot winners in the Breeders Cup as well.
Looking forward to a great thoroughbred season.
 
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Waiting for the Supreme Court to support sports gambling, which will save Monmouth Park
Your new Governor of NJ is also going to help both Meadowlands and Monmouth.

"There are a couple of industries in this state that we used to own," Murphy said. "The equine industry is on the list. And it's high on the list. And (what has happened) doesn't make any sense."

"You look at the thousands of jobs, the millions in economic benefit, and the open space benefits that are provided to a state that is the densest state in the nation. Recognizing the importance of this industry to the state, both historically and what it can be again, is not exactly hard to figure out."
 
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I've followed Magnum Moon for the past month. He impresses me. My early pick
He is my early pick as well. But the top 3 have been very impressive. Justify is justified being the favorite.... see what I did there??:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
 
Your new Governor of NJ is also going to help both Meadowlands and Monmouth.

"There are a couple of industries in this state that we used to own," Murphy said. "The equine industry is on the list. And it's high on the list. And (what has happened) doesn't make any sense."

"You look at the thousands of jobs, the millions in economic benefit, and the open space benefits that are provided to a state that is the densest state in the nation. Recognizing the importance of this industry to the state, both historically and what it can be again, is not exactly hard to figure out."


it was a damn shame that Sweeney and Christie colluded to kill the equine industry in the state, we used to have so many breeding farms and now they are all sold off. Borderline criminal what they did to prop up a failing lost cause in Atlantic City..all that missed gaming revenue that went to NY and PA
 
it was a damn shame that Sweeney and Christie colluded to kill the equine industry in the state, we used to have so many breeding farms and now they are all sold off. Borderline criminal what they did to prop up a failing lost cause in Atlantic City..all that missed gaming revenue that went to NY and PA
It's not too late but both are in critical condition. A positive future of those two tracks has to come first or the breeding industry in NJ will completely die.
And yes it was criminal what happened, sad at the same time.
 
A good quick review of the top 20 horses pointed to the Derby.
A good point made in the comments is that every horse considered to have enough talent also has enough points. For the most part all these horses stayed healthy during the Derby prep season.

www.drf.com/derby-watch
 
I'm worried about Gorsuch's vote now after he strayed from the reservation the other day on a case involving deportation.
 
This thing is not yet a done deal.Most had figured Gorsuch as a sure vote for our case after the hearing in December,but after this week's vote to block the deportation of a legal immigrant who became a career criminal,I'm no longer certain of his vote.Maybe I'm reading too much into it.
 
This thing is not yet a done deal.Most had figured Gorsuch as a sure vote for our case after the hearing in December,but after this week's vote to block the deportation of a legal immigrant who became a career criminal,I'm no longer certain of his vote.Maybe I'm reading too much into it.
With regards to the Monmouth Park case?
 
Yes it is over two weeks away. However, all the major stakes races are complete. So it's worth talking about early, especially as this is one of the most talented 3 year old crops in years. Plus history can be made by the top 3 favorites. The top 2 horses, Justify and Magnum Moon are undefeated and with a victory would be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby having never run as a 2year old in 136 years. Going back to the 1882, the 8th running of the Derby a horse named Apollo is the only horse to win it as an unraced 2 year old.
The 3rd favorite, Mendelssohn can become the first European trained horse to win the Derby. As in its never happened.
Add in there are another 6,7 horses that are more than talented to win the Derby and more.
The other reason I post this early is a change in handicapping that I and many others are adopting if you have the time. Reading past performances is becoming a thing of the past as being your only handicapping tool. It is now just a supplement to picking out you favorite. Today everyone can easily watch every race all these horses have run on video from the comfort of your home. Actually watching a horse win, or not is so much better than reading the charts.
It is how I've picked many Derby winners over the last 10 years. Has been a great tool in winning long shot winners in the Breeders Cup as well.
Looking forward to a great thoroughbred season.

Capping without out a form is like voting based on watching only MSNBC. You might end up with a losing nag.

Seriously, you might get away with it for stakes races where class, distance, jockey, weight etc., are not as variable but you need PP to handicap all the others.
 
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This thing is not yet a done deal.Most had figured Gorsuch as a sure vote for our case after the hearing in December,but after this week's vote to block the deportation of a legal immigrant who became a career criminal,I'm no longer certain of his vote.Maybe I'm reading too much into it.
How many pounds is he carrying?
 
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Capping without out a form is like voting based on watching only MSNBC. You might end up with a losing nag.

Seriously, you might get away with it for stakes races where class, distance, jockey, weight etc., are not as variable but you need PP to handicap all the others.
Obviously it only includes the major races as they are televised and easily available on YouTube. Handicapping with just DRF is even more likely to end up with a nag. I didn't say not to use the form. I said it goes from the only choice to a supplementary one.
 
Waiting for the Supreme Court to support sports gambling, which will save Monmouth Park

Legal sports betting doesn't guarantee success of Monmouth Park....TVG is setting up to do their own sports book online and on TV.

So unless you want to meet up with friends at Oceanport for a few brews...I still don't think it is going to save their inept management over the years.
 
Legal sports betting doesn't guarantee success of Monmouth Park....TVG is setting up to do their own sports book online and on TV.

So unless you want to meet up with friends at Oceanport for a few brews...I still don't think it is going to save their inept management over the years.
States will have the rights who can provide services. In PA you can't bet with TVG. You have to go through Parx or one of the other State tracks.
 
States will have the rights who can provide services. In PA you can't bet with TVG. You have to go through Parx or one of the other State tracks.

hmmm...in that case I would hope that the state puts the veto into TVG getting the sports betting
 
hmmm...in that case I would hope that the state puts the veto into TVG getting the sports betting
Monmouth and I believe the Meadowlands are already contracted with William Hill betting. Monmouth is already set up. They can take betting the second it is approved.
 
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I think that the OTB shops in NJ will also be capable of taking sports bets but the casinos and tracks go first.
 
I think that the OTB shops in NJ will also be capable of taking sports bets but the casinos and tracks go first.
And the off track betting parlors in NJ will be owned by the two tracks. Monmouth Park has 5 licences to build those.
 
Quiet week for Derby hopefuls . The connections of Quip announed they are skipping the Derby and pointing to the Preakness. Gronkowski suffered a minor setback and is now on the fence to run. No big loss if he doesnt except for NE Patriots fans.
Interesting that West Point Thoroughbred partnership bought a part ownership of My Boy Jack. The horse is now owned by 4 seperate partnerships.
West Point Thoroughbreds bought into a horse before the Derby last year. That horse was named Always Dreaming and won.
Most horses plans to ship to Churchville have been made and announements on those should come out soon.
 
Quiet week for Derby hopefuls . The connections of Quip announed they are skipping the Derby and pointing to the Preakness. Gronkowski suffered a minor setback and is now on the fence to run. No big loss if he doesnt except for NE Patriots fans.
Interesting that West Point Thoroughbred partnership bought a part ownership of My Boy Jack. The horse is now owned by 4 seperate partnerships.
West Point Thoroughbreds bought into a horse before the Derby last year. That horse was named Always Dreaming and won.
Most horses plans to ship to Churchville have been made and announements on those should come out soon.
Too bad if Gronkowski doesn't run,. his story would have drawn a lot of casual fan betting money (like Patch last year) and increased the payouts for everyone else.
A LOT of good horses in this race.
 
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Too bad if Gronkowski doesn't run,. his story would have drawn a lot of casual fan betting money (like Patch last year) and increased the payouts for everyone else.
A LOT of good horses in this race.
I don't think a horse called Gronk will add much. From a talent standpoint isn't a Derby quality horse but can be a very, very good horse going forward. Besides it is the Kentucky Derby. Everyone watches anyway.
And yes as I said earlier this is one of the best fields in a long time. If one of them can win the Triple Crown that would be something!
 
I don't think a horse called Gronk will add much. From a talent standpoint isn't a Derby quality horse but can be a very, very good horse going forward. Besides it is the Kentucky Derby. Everyone watches anyway.
And yes as I said earlier this is one of the best fields in a long time. If one of them can win the Triple Crown that would be something!
I wasn't talking about viewers, I was talking about betting money. It is always good for a race when you have something that attracts a lot of people's money and drives up the odds for the other horses you think can really win.

For example, I hit a nice exacta/trifecta in the Travers last year because most of the casual money went to the three Triple Crown race winners in the field, even through none of those three horse were running that well by the end of the summer (and none finished in the top 3).
 
I wasn't talking about viewers, I was talking about betting money. It is always good for a race when you have something that attracts a lot of people's money and drives up the odds for the other horses you think can really win.

For example, I hit a nice exacta/trifecta in the Travers last year because most of the casual money went to the three Triple Crown race winners in the field, even through none of those three horse were running that well by the end of the summer (and none finished in the top 3).
Betting yes. His odds would be much lower just because of the name for sure.
 
Yes it is over two weeks away. However, all the major stakes races are complete. So it's worth talking about early, especially as this is one of the most talented 3 year old crops in years. Plus history can be made by the top 3 favorites. The top 2 horses, Justify and Magnum Moon are undefeated and with a victory would be the first horse to win the Kentucky Derby having never run as a 2year old in 136 years. Going back to the 1882, the 8th running of the Derby a horse named Apollo is the only horse to win it as an unraced 2 year old.
The 3rd favorite, Mendelssohn can become the first European trained horse to win the Derby. As in its never happened.
Add in there are another 6,7 horses that are more than talented to win the Derby and more.
The other reason I post this early is a change in handicapping that I and many others are adopting if you have the time. Reading past performances is becoming a thing of the past as being your only handicapping tool. It is now just a supplement to picking out you favorite. Today everyone can easily watch every race all these horses have run on video from the comfort of your home. Actually watching a horse win, or not is so much better than reading the charts.
It is how I've picked many Derby winners over the last 10 years. Has been a great tool in winning long shot winners in the Breeders Cup as well.
Looking forward to a great thoroughbred season.

whitebus-funny I read your specific post. Though at the library for else I myself and getting things out of the way to watch all the videos myself. Jusr completed that list but looking at the DRF sumary of races-seems like your strategy.

Have not watched any races yet but given the not racing at 2 thing and the typical european duds (this years ( Eurpoean horse/amongst else/ is actually Gronkowski. By the way Im sure all of you have heard that Rob Gronkowski himself has now purchased the horse.

In another personal coincidence I just read about "my son jack"-(now purchased in part by West Point)
Today is April 25th. Well in my High school class we had, I believe 2 world class potential athletes (one had the world pole vault record for age 14). The other (my best friend in the 2nd grade) was a great dominating basketball player. I think he ruined a good potential 1-A career with partying. Anyway I always said I wanted to meet his progeny (I finally did a year or two ago as he worked at my then health club.

Today was my old classmates birthday and he had a son "Jack" (hence "my son jack") who helped lead his high school to a state championship a few years back (but again the partying/lack of seriousness seemed to stifle the career)...
 
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Gronk only bought a small share of the horse but it' cool that he got involved.
Gronkowski the horse is out of the Derby and will point to the Belmont.
 
Interesting that West Point Thoroughbred partnership bought a part ownership of My Boy Jack. The horse is now owned by 4 seperate partnerships.
West Point Thoroughbreds bought into a horse before the Derby last year. That horse was named Always Dreaming and won.

I wouldn't put too much stock in that. I first met Terry over twenty years ago and we became friends. He's a solid horseman but he's even better at promoting WPT.
 
I wouldn't put too much stock in that. I first met Terry over twenty years ago and we became friends. He's a solid horseman but he's even better at promoting WPT.
I put no stock in that as a trend, every horse racing fan (and gambler) knows that following a trend can be costly [winking]
WPT does a great job promoting themselves and keeping their "owners" happy. You always see a bunch of WPT people and owners every single morning at dawn on the backstretch at Saratoga. Every once in awhile they even have a very good horse. As I've said before on this board that I did a complete 180 on partnerships since the begining back in the early 90s. I think they are great for the industry.
 
During first initial glance at the DRF summary of races Gronkowski won a few big European races (he would have been one of the favorites and taken in some money. However the UAE derby winners and similar have been pretty much no shows (let alone win or place!) at the Kentucky Derby.

As for WPT I thought there is a stock traded on the NYSE/NASDAQ and the shareholders are essentialty the "owners"-or is it else? I received a solicitation once and enjoyed following some of the horses and owners and even received "likes" including the Derby winner (Brooklyn Boyz) and Ahmad Zyhat (sp). Always a dream of mine to own a top thoroughbred.
 
During first initial glance at the DRF summary of races Gronkowski won a few big European races (he would have been one of the favorites and taken in some money. However the UAE derby winners and similar have been pretty much no shows (let alone win or place!) at the Kentucky Derby.

As for WPT I thought there is a stock traded on the NYSE/NASDAQ and the shareholders are essentialty the "owners"-or is it else? I received a solicitation once and enjoyed following some of the horses and owners and even received "likes" including the Derby winner (Brooklyn Boyz) and Ahmad Zyhat (sp). Always a dream of mine to own a top thoroughbred.
Gronkowski was 80-100 to 1 in the last odds before he lost training time. He was never considered a threat. Would have be bet because of his name but still wouldn't have been close to being a favorite.
No the "owners" are the people who buy in to a particular horse. They don' have shares in the company.
 
Great story in today's Daily Racing Form about partnerships. You may have to sign up for a free account to view.

www.drf.com/news/derby-field-shows-rising-influence-modern-racing-partnerships?enable=true

But if there are doubts about whether partnerships are ultimately good for the game, it may help to pull up a video of the 2017 Derby, in the aftermath of Always Dreaming crossing the finish in front. There’s Terry Finley, the West Point graduate and ex-airborne ranger, the guy who had a tiny, tiny piece of the winner – perhaps a fraction of a percent. He’s on the rail at Churchill Downs, surrounded by his wife and kids, amid hundreds of cheering people.
 
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Can’t bet a horse that has to be the pace or close to it this year with all of the talented horses. A horse comfortable running 6-8 in traffic, with a solid jock is the way to go. Also want to see a horse on the improve with some nice works leading up. Will play the pick 4, probably buy a race, single another, and then make some wise guy picks in the Derby.
 
The annual backstretch buzz this year is focused on Good Magic. Some years it means something, most years these "wise guy" picks finish up the track. But it's fun to read as we lead up to the Derby just 6 days away.
 
There is no wire to wire speed here. I will look at a nag that can hang near the pack and follow the flow or a closer and I have both picked .
 
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