OT: 2022 Tropical Weather Thread - Another Busy Season Predicted

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
After last year's 3rd busiest tropical season ever, with 21 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, many of which wreaked havoc for numerous locations in the Atlantic Basin and the US, with 8 tropical systems making US landfalls, including, of course, Henri and Ida, which brought record rainfall and flooding to parts of our area, both CSU (Colorado State U, home of the late, great Dr. Gray, who pioneered seasonal tropical forecasting for the Atlantic Basin nearly 40 years ago) and NOAA are predicting a somewhat to well above average tropical season in the Atlantic this year. This is just two years after 2020's record smashing tropical season, featuring 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes. Busy cycle we're in.

CSU's prediction is for 20 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 10 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA issued their forecast 2 weeks ago and it's a little bit lower than CSU's, but still somewhat above average with predictions of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 17.5 named storms (20 from CSU), 8 hurricanes (10 from CSU) and 4.5 major hurricanes (5 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the neutral ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state, which is expected to continue (El Nino conditions inhibit tropical activity) and current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). If RU4Real were still around, he'd have a prediction contest...

And we're about to have tropical storm Alex named as our first storm of the season, after this low pressure system inundated much of South Florida with torrential flooding rains over the past day or so (but it didn't have enough tropical characteristics to be named yet). It's heading ENE towards Bermuda and won't strengthen much (50-60 mph, tops).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#One
Tgl8Qk3.png


JRadVeH.png
 
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RUfinally2008

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Aug 20, 2005
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My brother has a beautiful home about 700 yards from the beach in Nags Head, NC. he's only been there since 2019 and has yet to experience anything major yet. Every time something is brewing in the Atlantic or Gulf, he worries about alternate shelter. They have 3 dogs and 2 cats so who the hell will take them in? Crazy, as I couldn't live with that hanging over my head. As always, praying they dodge another bullet this tropical season.
 

Doteman

Senior
Mar 15, 2007
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Very interested in this Saturday’s forecast 6/11. Have a surprise 50th bday party with 100 guests or more. Weather.gov showing rain likely? Is this tropical remnants or no?
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,188
30,834
113
Metuchen, NJ
Very interested in this Saturday’s forecast 6/11. Have a surprise 50th bday party with 100 guests or more. Weather.gov showing rain likely? Is this tropical remnants or no?
Where are you located? Assuming somewhere in NJ, Saturday is looking fairly rainy, right now on 3 of the 4 major global models, although it's still 6 days out and much can change. Nothing to do with remnants of Alex, which is moving quickly out in the Atlantic past Bermuda as we speak. Just a likely stalled frontal boundary on Saturday, with a low pressure system forming and riding up it and bringing possibly substantial rainfall. Hopefully this forecast changes, for you and for me (have a big disc golf tourney scheduled on Saturday and playing in the rain sucks).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,188
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Metuchen, NJ
My brother has a beautiful home about 700 yards from the beach in Nags Head, NC. he's only been there since 2019 and has yet to experience anything major yet. Every time something is brewing in the Atlantic or Gulf, he worries about alternate shelter. They have 3 dogs and 2 cats so who the hell will take them in? Crazy, as I couldn't live with that hanging over my head. As always, praying they dodge another bullet this tropical season.
Unfortunately, for the Outer Banks, it's just a matter of time before another hurricane strikes. On average, over the last 170 years, NC sees a landfalling tropical system every 2 years and a landfalling hurricane every 3.2 years.

https://www.fox46.com/news/u-s/nort...s-make-landfall-in-north-carolina-on-average/
 
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Doteman

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Mar 15, 2007
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Where are you located? Assuming somewhere in NJ, Saturday is looking fairly rainy, right now on 3 of the 4 major global models, although it's still 6 days out and much can change. Nothing to do with remnants of Alex, which is moving quickly out in the Atlantic past Bermuda as we speak. Just a likely stalled frontal boundary on Saturday, with a low pressure system forming and riding up it and bringing possibly substantial rainfall. Hopefully this forecast changes, for you and for me (have a big disc golf tourney scheduled on Saturday and playing in the rain sucks).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
 

RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
Most models still showing significant rainfall during the day on Saturday for the whole area (all of NJ). Still too far out to call the forecast a lock, though...
 
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RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
Things are looking a bit better for Saturday, with models now showing some rain, still, but much less than they were showing earlier. And it's even possible much of the day will remain dry in some places, although it's not clear where those places will be yet. Stay tuned.
 
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RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
Forecast for Saturday continues to improve. Now it looks like just some scattered showers in the afternoon (likely <0.1" of total rain), but definitely not a washout for the whole area, including Forked River. It's also possible that no rain falls. What time is your party and is it outdoors? If outdoors, you'd probably still want to have some shelter/tent available (or room for everyone inside during a shower) just in case.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend days have been trending in opposite directions, with
Saturday looking less inclement, but Sunday looking more so. For the
moment, that leaves both days with relatively similar chances of
rain, but this trend may continue and the higher rain risk may end
up being Sunday.

To start Saturday morning, a remnant weak area of surface high
pressure will be sitting over the Mid-Atlantic. Despite this surface
high, we also expect an area of rain showers to be occurring, mainly
west of our forecast area, due primarily due to a strong upper level
shortwave rotating around the closed low which will be lingering in
southern Canada. However, this high looks likely to linger thru the
day, so as the trough swings through and surface low pressure tries
to develop to our south, odds slightly favor drier conditions
prevailing, especially towards eastern areas where the drier and
more stable air mass will be most persistent. So, have mainly
chance pops for Saturday, highest in the afternoon, with a slight
chance of thunder. With the cooler Canadian air mass still in place
and clouds likely to be more common, temps likely stay a bit on the
cooler side of normal. Drier conditions prevail Saturday night as that system heads off the
coast, but they don`t last long.
 

Doteman

Senior
Mar 15, 2007
1,267
397
83
Forecast for Saturday continues to improve. Now it looks like just some scattered showers in the afternoon (likely <0.1" of total rain), but definitely not a washout for the whole area, including Forked River. It's also possible that no rain falls. What time is your party and is it outdoors? If outdoors, you'd probably still want to have some shelter/tent available (or room for everyone inside during a shower) just in case.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend days have been trending in opposite directions, with
Saturday looking less inclement, but Sunday looking more so. For the
moment, that leaves both days with relatively similar chances of
rain, but this trend may continue and the higher rain risk may end
up being Sunday.

To start Saturday morning, a remnant weak area of surface high
pressure will be sitting over the Mid-Atlantic. Despite this surface
high, we also expect an area of rain showers to be occurring, mainly
west of our forecast area, due primarily due to a strong upper level
shortwave rotating around the closed low which will be lingering in
southern Canada. However, this high looks likely to linger thru the
day, so as the trough swings through and surface low pressure tries
to develop to our south, odds slightly favor drier conditions
prevailing, especially towards eastern areas where the drier and
more stable air mass will be most persistent. So, have mainly
chance pops for Saturday, highest in the afternoon, with a slight
chance of thunder. With the cooler Canadian air mass still in place
and clouds likely to be more common, temps likely stay a bit on the
cooler side of normal. Drier conditions prevail Saturday night as that system heads off the
coast, but they don`t last long.
Sounds great Numbers. Gonna be both inside/outside. Got a good tent setup just in case. Thx for updates, appreciate it
 
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RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,188
30,834
113
Metuchen, NJ
Sounds great Numbers. Gonna be both inside/outside. Got a good tent setup just in case. Thx for updates, appreciate it
Looking even better after the latest model runs with no measurable precip being shown before 3-4 pm at all and very little through 7-8 pm (maybe 0.05"). Mild and mostly cloudy ain't so bad...

Plotter.php
 
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RU848789

Legend
Jul 27, 2001
54,188
30,834
113
Metuchen, NJ
After last year's 3rd busiest tropical season ever, with 21 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, many of which wreaked havoc for numerous locations in the Atlantic Basin and the US, with 8 tropical systems making US landfalls, including, of course, Henri and Ida, which brought record rainfall and flooding to parts of our area, both CSU (Colorado State U, home of the late, great Dr. Gray, who pioneered seasonal tropical forecasting for the Atlantic Basin nearly 40 years ago) and NOAA are predicting a somewhat to well above average tropical season in the Atlantic this year. This is just two years after 2020's record smashing tropical season, featuring 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes. Busy cycle we're in.

CSU's prediction is for 20 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 10 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA issued their forecast 2 weeks ago and it's a little bit lower than CSU's, but still somewhat above average with predictions of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 17.5 named storms (20 from CSU), 8 hurricanes (10 from CSU) and 4.5 major hurricanes (5 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the neutral ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state, which is expected to continue (El Nino conditions inhibit tropical activity) and current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). If RU4Real were still around, he'd have a prediction contest...

And we're about to have tropical storm Alex named as our first storm of the season, after this low pressure system inundated much of South Florida with torrential flooding rains over the past day or so (but it didn't have enough tropical characteristics to be named yet). It's heading ENE towards Bermuda and won't strengthen much (50-60 mph, tops).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#One
Tgl8Qk3.png


JRadVeH.png
Both CSU and NOAA updated their tropical season outlooks over the past few days, with both of them maintaining predictions of above average tropical storms and hurricanes, but nudging those forecasts down a tad vs. their June forecasts, as per the linked article, with the forecasts summarized in the graphic below.

Also, for those who wonder why these forecasts would be updated, it's simply because we're closer in time to most of our tropical activity, so the foreast should be more accurate (nobody asks why Monday's forecast for Friday gets update every day after Monday and sometimes every hour, lol). In addition, >90% of tropical activity occurs after the August updates (2nd graphic), so the season has barely begun, really.

Even though it's been over a month since the last named storm, with 3 named storms so far, that's average for the season through early August. Also, we now have our first tropical wave in weeks (which is pretty unusual), south of the Cape Verde Islands, which could become a tropical system; It's not a given that this will form a named system, but it's worth watching.

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-season-outlook-2022-update-csu-noaa

2022-hur-season-outlook-4aug.jpg


trop-activity-aug-later.jpg
 

RUfinally2008

All Conference
Aug 20, 2005
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""Even though it's been over a month since the last named storm, with 3 named storms so far, that's average for the season through early August. ""To be exact, 2 days shy of 2 months would be more accurate. 😇