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OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM

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The forecasts from both Colorado State University (CSU, where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been for a very busy season since early spring and now that the tropical season has officially started, the latest updates (6/5 from NHC and 6/11 from CSU) from the two major sources continue to predict an extremely active tropical season for the Atlantic Basin. Also, note that the 3rd link, below, has a summary of predictions from about 20 different sources, with all of them predicting a busy season.

CSU's prediction is for 23 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 17-25 (mean of 21) named storms, of which 8-13 (mean of 10.5) are expected to become hurricanes, including 4-7 (mean of 5.5) major hurricanes; see the graphics and links below. In comparison, last year we had a fairly active tropical season with regard to named storms with 20 named storms (vs. the 1981-2020 long-term average of 14.4), but the season was right on average for hurricanes, with 7 hurricanes (vs. an avg of 7) and 3 major hurricanes (vs. an avg of 3), compared to preseason forecasts for average activity,

However, note that even in a very busy year, what's most important, usually, is landfalling hurricanes, especially major ones (or ones with extraordinary rainfall), which is why last year's very active season wasn't particularly impactful, as only Idalia made US landfall as a major hurricane (and fortunately in the sparsely populated Big Bend area of Florida); similarly, in a below normal or normal year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian a couple of years ago, to make a season impactful.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.org/forecast/seasonal-predictions

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mal-atlantic-basin-heating-up-8-21-23.261686/

eXDvyGp.png

WUVuaes.png



Both CSU and NHC use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing La Nina conditions (which usually means more tropical activity, due to lowered wind shear over the Atlantic Basin) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which also usually means more tropical activity and the potential for more powerful storms, as hurricanes use warmer waters as "fuel" for intensification) as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Unfortunately, without @RU4Real, I'm guessing we won't have a prediction contest. Let's see how it all goes, but the predictions are a bit disconcerting, especially for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, the US (and Canada) East Coast, and the Caribbean.
 
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The forecasts from both Colorado State University (CSU, where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been for a very busy season since early spring and now that the tropical season has officially started, the latest updates (6/5 from NHC and 6/11 from CSU) from the two major sources continue to predict an extremely active tropical season for the Atlantic Basin. Also, note that the 3rd link, below, has a summary of predictions from about 20 different sources, with all of them predicting a busy season.

CSU's prediction is for 23 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 17-25 (mean of 21) named storms, of which 8-13 (mean of 10.5) are expected to become hurricanes, including 4-7 (mean of 5.5) major hurricanes; see the graphics and links below. In comparison, last year we had a fairly active tropical season with regard to named storms with 20 named storms (vs. the 1981-2020 long-term average of 14.4), but the season was right on average for hurricanes, with 7 hurricanes (vs. an avg of 7) and 3 major hurricanes (vs. an avg of 3), compared to preseason forecasts for average activity,

However, note that even in a very busy year, what's most important, usually, is landfalling hurricanes, especially major ones (or ones with extraordinary rainfall), which is why last year's very active season wasn't particularly impactful, as only Idalia made US landfall as a major hurricane (and fortunately in the sparsely populated Big Bend area of Florida); similarly, in a below normal or normal year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian a couple of years ago, to make a season impactful.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.org/forecast/seasonal-predictions

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mal-atlantic-basin-heating-up-8-21-23.261686/

eXDvyGp.png

WUVuaes.png



Both CSU and NHC use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing La Nina conditions (which usually means more tropical activity, due to lowered wind shear over the Atlantic Basin) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which also usually means more tropical activity and the potential for more powerful storms, as hurricanes use warmer waters as "fuel" for intensification) as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Unfortunately, without @RU4Real, I'm guessing we won't have a prediction contest. Let's see how it all goes, but the predictions are a bit disconcerting, especially for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, the US (and Canada) East Coast, and the Caribbean.
A long winded post.
 
With all the AI hype, one would expect to read about it making better weather predictions but its not mentioned at all - being hype and all.
 
With all the AI hype, one would expect to read about it making better weather predictions but its not mentioned at all - being hype and all.
AI tools have been in use by the NHC and others for weather forecasts for years, improving these forecasts as per the link below. It has helped the NHC move from 5 to 7 day tropical outlooks, which we will see this year. The AI machine learning approach is far more efficient than standard supercomputer modeling, since it doesn't actually use any physics to predict the weather, but instead "learns" patterns from zillions of past data sets and compares them to current situations to make predictions in minutes on laptops. The results have been mixed when many thought the AI approach would fail miserably. Interesting stuff...

https://www.nbcmiami.com/weather/hu...nter-provide-more-accurate-forecasts/3043377/

https://www.wired.com/story/ai-hurricane-predictions-are-storming-the-world-of-weather-forecasting/

AI approaches and machine learning are also being used to improve seasonal forecasts, as per below. My guess is AI is also being used to improve seasonal tropical activity forecasts.

https://phys.org/news/2024-02-ai-machine-seasonal-weather.html
 
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I don't ever want to see storms causing mayhem anywhere but I especially hope nothing affects the North Carolina beaches the week of Sept 14th this year. And yes, I know about the chart showing Sept 10th as the most likely date for stuff to happen!
 
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Well, the season is off to a roaring start with a very early hurricane, Beryl, forming today (first hurricane of the season is typically Aug 11th), which is also the easternmost hurricane that has ever formed during June, as the Cabo Verde season usually doesn't get going until August, but this year, the Atlantic Basin ocean temps in that reason are at record high levels, making hurricane formation more likely.

Beryl will impact the Lesser Antilles as a likely major hurricane by early Monday and then could impact Jamaica and potentially Central America/Mexico; US impacts are unlikely at this point, although it's not clear what will happen with the storm after likely hitting the Yucatan Peninsula in 5+ days - if it survives land interactions, a turn into the GOM is possible, although not likely. Worth watching, obviously.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/203825.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...6-28-tropical-storm-beryl-hurricane-caribbean

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 10.1N 49.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 10.6N 51.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.3N 55.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.0N 58.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.1N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 14.3N 66.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 17.3N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.3W 75 KT 85 MPH

KJwsBDL.png
 
Damn, Beryl has already reached Cat 4 strength (130 mph), earlier than expected and should strengthen more (140 mph forecast), meaning impacts could approach catastrophic levels for some of these Caribbean islands (the Windward Islands mostly) on Monday and potentially for Jamaica and other islands in the Caribbean later and the storm is still expected to be borderline Cat 3 (~110 mph) when it reaches Belize/Mexico by Friday.

US impacts are still unlikely at this point, although it's not clear what will happen with the storm after likely hitting the Yucatan Peninsula in 5+ days - if it survives land interactions, a turn into the Gulf of Mexico is possible, as some models indicate. Worth watching, obviously, by those along the GOM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 10.7N 54.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 11.2N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 12.1N 60.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 13.3N 64.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 14.6N 68.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 15.6N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.4N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 17.8N 82.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 19.2N 88.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

cYJW4v3.png
 
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...has there ever been a year where they Have not said it is going to be an active Hurricane Season ? just sayin, not really going out on a limb with this statement year in / year out....
 
...has there ever been a year where they Have not said it is going to be an active Hurricane Season ? just sayin, not really going out on a limb with this statement year in / year out....
Many years, as per the graphic below (avg is 14.4 storms per year) - not even sure why you'd ask that. These are serious scientists not carnival barkers.

verification_NS.png
 
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Hurricane Beryl is now almost Cat 5 with 150 mph sustained winds and it just made landfall along the Grenadine Islands and specifically on Carriacou Island (part of the southern Windward Islands between Grenada and Grenadines/St. Vincent); see the latest NHC update below. Damage from winds and storms surge there are certainly catastrophic with this strengthening storm. This is the earliest Cat 4 in the Atlantic Basin in recorded history and the strongest hurricane to ever hit the southern Windward Islands.

Looking ahead, Beryl is likely to just miss Jamaica to the south as a probable Cat 3 (115-125 mph) sometime on Wednesday, although the strongest winds for westbound hurricanes are to the N/NE. After that, Beryl will likely hit somewhere around Belize and Mexico on the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday, probably as a Cat 2 storm (~90 mph) and beyond that, Beryl is likely to emerge in the Bay of Campeche as a strong TS, but is likely to then make landfall on the Mexican coast well south of Texas, although folks in south Texas need to keep an eye on this storm, as that part of the forecast still has some uncertainty.

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station at Grenada airport recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
speed of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Beryl. The next
intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

449436824_10228277941327723_1456345950836849482_n.jpg
 
They're getting a little too granular. Tropical Storm Chris was an actual storm for less than 6 hours and is already completely dissipated. But now it's an "official" storm. Sheeze.

They are fluffing the "standard" for naming storms. That's how Big Science rolls. No crisis, no grant money.

I'm disappointed that "scientists" would say such things. Do you expect the NHC to ignore their criteria for naming storms? Does it matter that Chris may have only been a minimal tropical storm for ~6 hours? Maybe we shouldn't count stats at the end of sporting events either.
 
With all the AI mega-hyper I can expect a big improvement in forecasts?
 
Not even close. Look at the graphic I posted of CSU's preseason predictions. Quite a few are below the climatological average.
that wasn't a dig or attack on you but we never hear anything about upcoming hurricane season without it being predicted to be busy/active
 
Many years, as per the graphic below (avg is 14.4 storms per year) - not even sure why you'd ask that. These are serious scientists not carnival barkers.

verification_NS.png
Would say that’s pretty good correlation between predicted and observed. Is there are a similar graph for predictions earlier in the season as well? Would expect the forecast to tighten up as the season goes on and this was early August forecast and would be interesting to see how/if the forecast evolved.
 
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Many years, as per the graphic below (avg is 14.4 storms per year) - not even sure why you'd ask that. These are serious scientists not carnival barkers.

verification_NS.png
would be careful with that as history, even recent history, is littered with examples of them being more 'carnival barkers' than 'serious scientists'. The measure you use to define study, scientific advancement, and analysis in data is NOT universal it would seem over the past several decades.

I just went back 7yrs for NOAA and in each year, they state 'active, above normal, busy, etc..) They are always predicting active seasons. just saying. Personally I don't care, it's hurricane season so getting one is like getting snow in the winter. there is my shocked face:)
 
With all the AI mega-hyper I can expect a big improvement in forecasts?
So far, we're talking minor to modest improvements in short term and seasonal forecasts from AI/machine learning, but the datasets are still too short to see if improvements will be sustained. However, it's certainly interesting to see. A simple search shows dozens of results discussing applications and advancements.

Google Search...
 
would be careful with that as history, even recent history, is littered with examples of them being more 'carnival barkers' than 'serious scientists'. The measure you use to define study, scientific advancement, and analysis in data is NOT universal it would seem over the past several decades.

I just went back 7yrs for NOAA and in each year, they state 'active, above normal, busy, etc..) They are always predicting active seasons. just saying. Personally I don't care, it's hurricane season so getting one is like getting snow in the winter. there is my shocked face:)
Well, your dataset is limited, since 5 of the last 7 years have been above normal and the other 2 were normal, so predictions of normal to above normal would not be a surprise for that period. NOAA predicted below normal activity in several years before that, just like CSU. IMO, NOAA/CSU and others have little to gain in "hyping" forecasts, since accuracy is more important than anything for these folks.
 
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Would say that’s pretty good correlation between predicted and observed. Is there are a similar graph for predictions earlier in the season as well? Would expect the forecast to tighten up as the season goes on and this was early August forecast and would be interesting to see how/if the forecast evolved.
It's fantastic and way better than seasonal forecast correlations for any other seasons, like winter snowfall, for example. Also, good question: the forecasts are less accurate the earlier one goes in time, as one would expect, as per the PDF I linked in the first post (data are at the end of the PDF).
 
Well, your dataset is limited, since 5 of the last 7 years have been above normal and the other 2 were normal, so predictions of normal to above normal would not be a surprise for that period. NOAA predicted below normal activity in several years before that, just like CSU. IMO, NOAA/CSU and others have little to gain in "hyping" forecasts, since accuracy is more important than anything for these folks.
just looked at 9yrs and NOAA said above on all. I could go back further but you SHOULD get the point to what I said.

and you missed the point in your zeal to 'challenge' what isn't really challengable
 
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just looked at 9yrs and NOAA said above on all. I could go back further but you SHOULD get the point to what I said.

and you missed the point in your zeal to 'challenge' what isn't really challengable
So you're wrong on this. Below is the summary of NOAA's seasonal activity forecast for the last 15 years (their end of May forecasts; note that the 30-year avg of named storms was 12 from 1981-2010 and that went up to 14.4 from 1991-2020) and over the last 9 years (2016-2024), NOAA predicted 5 above normal seasons and 4 normal seasons, not all 9 above normal. There's no "zeal" here, just data. And from 2010-2015, NOAA predicted 3 below normal seasons, one normal season and 2 above normal seasons, so they'll clearly predict below normal seasons when the data indicate that that's likely.

2024: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 17-25 storms with a midpoint of 21 vs. vs. a 14.4 storm avg from 1991-2020
2023: NOAA predicted a normal season of 12-17 storms with a midpoint of 14.5 vs. vs. a 14.4 storm avg from 1991-2020
2022: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 14-21 storms with a midpoint of 17.5 vs. vs. a 14.4 storm avg from 1991-2020
2021: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 13-20 storms with a midpoint of 16.5 vs. vs. a 14.4 storm avg from 1991-2020
2020: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 13-19 storms with a midpoint of 16 vs. vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2019: NOAA predicted a normal season of 9-15 storms with a midpoint of 12 vs. vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2018: NOAA predicted a normal season of 10-16 storms with a midpoint of 13 vs. vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2017: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 11-17 storms with a midpoint of 14 vs. vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2016: NOAA predicted a normal season of 10-16 storms with a midpoint of 13 vs. vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)

2015: NOAA predicted a below normal season of 6-11 storms with a midpoint of 8.5 vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2014: NOAA predicted a below normal season of 8-13 storms with a midpoint of 10.5 vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2013: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 13-20 storms with a midpoint of 16.5 vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2012: NOAA predicted a normal season of 9-15 storms with a midpoint of 12 vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2011: NOAA predicted an above normal season of 12-18 storms with a midpoint of 15 vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)
2010: NOAA predicted a below normal season of 14-23 storms with a midpoint of 18.5 vs. a 12.1 storm avg from 1981-2010)

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2010/May/hurricane.shtml
 
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Back to the important stuff. Hurricane Beryl is now a Cat 5 storm taking aim at Jamaica next...

Earliest in the season Cat 5 ever with 165 mph sustained winds, which is just nuts for this early in the season. The previous earliest ever Cat 5 was Emily (2 weeks later) in the extraordinarily active 2005 season (2nd most active ever), with the current season already predicted to be one of the most active ever. Foreboding to say the least.

Beryl is forecast to either make landfall on the southern coast of Jamaica or to come very close to a landfall (which is almost as bad with the strong, northern side still likely to impact Jamaica) tomorrow afternoon, likely as a Cat3/Cat 4 storm with 120-130 mph winds, as some weakening is forecast from now until then, although intensity forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. A strong Cat 3 or Cat 4 hurricane hitting Jamaica will bring catastrophic winds/surge/rains.

After that, Beryl will likely weaken more after interaction with the mountainous geography of Jamaica (and increased shear) and likely not score a direct hit on the Cayman Islands (but there will likely be some impacts there) - and after that, Beryl's forecast track has been nudged northward with the next landfall likely on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with a forecast Cat 2 intensity (~90 mph or so) late this week (Friday morning).

The big questions after Beryl crosses the Yucatan and emerges into the Bay of Campeche are how much weakening will crossing that area introduce (forecast is for a ~65 mph tropical storm at that point, but that's just an educated guess this far out) and whether Beryl will then strike the northern coast of Mexico, as forecast, or if Beryl might bend further northward, possibly striking far southern Texas (Sunday/Monday timeframe). That's 5-6 days out and there are models showing a south Texas landfall, plus more than a few members of the Euro/GFS ensemble forecast (where the model is run with dozens of "tweaks" to initial conditions to evaluate model sensitivity) show a Texas landfall. Interests in South Texas need to be watching this one closely.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.6N 66.9W 145 KT 165 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 15.5N 69.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 16.5N 73.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.4N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.2N 80.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 04/1800Z 18.7N 83.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.2N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/115445.shtml?cone#contents

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-beryl-forecast-jamaica-mexico-texas

fJESc8Q.png
 
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Damage on Carriacou Island where Beryl made landfall as a Cat 4 hurricane yesterday is extensive to catastrophic with most homes severely damaged and many destroyed and all power on the island having been knocked out. Fortunately no loss of life has been reported. Twitter thread below has many reports, including drone footage...

https://x.com/search?q=carriacou+da...RJnUGjq3ePG-RYfB3s_aem_T8-ROtuvmow9vlXXThQvuQ
 
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