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OT: Active June in the Atlantic Basin - Potential Huge Rainmaker for the Gulf

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
Well we have minimal TS Bret nearing Trinidad and Venezuela, which is extremely unusual as most tropical systems do not get that far south. That storm is likely going to dissipate in the Caribbean However, the as yet unnamed system in the Central Gulf of Mexico, is likely to bring torrential rains to much of the Gulf Coast over the next several days, even if it never becomes an official tropical storm (it will be Cindy, if it's named). I do like the NHC's new policy of providing much more detailed forecasts on "potential tropical systems." The WU blog also has a nice write-up, especially on the potential for heavy rains:

The slow-moving system now known as PTC 3 could dump 10” to 20” of rain on parts of the central Gulf Coast this week. Models do not indicate that PTC 3 is likely to become a strong tropical storm or hurricane. Even if it does become Cindy, its sustained winds may never top 50 mph. However, a system like this doesn’t need to reach tropical storm status in order to cause major havoc. This became clear with last year’s “no-name” floods in Louisiana—the nation’s worst disaster of 2016, with more than $10 billion in damage.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-warnings-gulf-coast-windwards-brace-bret
 
Bret has largely dissipated as expected, while the NHC named the Gulf system Cindy at 2 pm. Cindy is all about the rainfall and not about wind and waves, which is usually the issue with most tropical systems. For example, given the projected landfall near the TX/LA border, winds in the NOLA area likely won't be worse than 20-25 mph, and even near the storm center winds aren't expected to be more than 45 mph.

However, the "predecessor rain event" (PRE), i.e., the rain well ahead of the storm will be substantial, as rains in the Gulf states should be 4-10" (with local amounts up to 15") over the next 2+ days, leading to some significant flooding in the region. See the WU blog post linked below for a really good discussion on the impacts from Cindy and the WPC graphic on expected rainfall.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/downpours-sweep-southeast-ahead-tropical-storm-cindy

wpc-7day-prcp-12Z-6.20.17.jpg
 
"Predecessor rain event"?!?! Holy shit, I hope I can get tickets for that one. (Name that comic)

All in jest. I appreciate your weather threads and admire your passion. My parents just headed down to their vaca house in tarpon springs (gulf coast side, near Tampa), hopefully they don't get too soaked. Never understood why they go from Pa to Fla in the summer.
 
This might be asking too much of the weather gods, but would it be possible to get a weekend shore weather forecast? Its amazing to me that the Accuweather and Weather.com app have different forecasts even on Thursday nights quite often heading into the weekend.

I know it may not be as exciting to you guys as the snow forecasts, but for us beach bums its equally important. Thanks if possible!
 
Geeze, how is this gonna affect the low lying and under sea level areas of Louisiana?
 
This might be asking too much of the weather gods, but would it be possible to get a weekend shore weather forecast? Its amazing to me that the Accuweather and Weather.com app have different forecasts even on Thursday nights quite often heading into the weekend.

I know it may not be as exciting to you guys as the snow forecasts, but for us beach bums its equally important. Thanks if possible!

Unfortunately, summertime forecasts, when we get into warm/hot patterns with some instability, which is quite often (like this past Friday through Monday), are even less certain than winter time snowfall forecasts. This is all due to the energy level in the atmosphere being close to 10X greater in summer than winter, which greatly increases uncertainty.

In the summer, it's not unusual for mesoscale convective t-storms to develop and behave somewhat randomly, hitting one town with an inch of rain in 20 minutes and leaving several nearby towns mostly or completely dry - most people just don't care about that outcome unless they're attending some outdoor event in that timeframe. The somewhat stochastic nature of these storms defies the ability to predict them with any accuracy, with regard to exact timing, location, and intensity.

The only thing keeping people from freaking out way more than snowstorm inaccuracy is that the impact of an inch of rain is generally far less than the impact of a foot of snow. Just imagine if we had snowstorms that deposited a foot of snow in P-way and nothing in NB or Somerville - it's bad enough around here when there's a forecast for 2-4" of snow and somebody only gets 1". This kind of thing simply can't happen, because our snowfall is never that random, given the much lower energy level in the wintertime atmosphere.

I am the "weather consultant" for the local Metuchen Junebug festival (every Saturday evening in June) and the first two were simple as we were in a dry pattern. However, this past Saturday was dicey all week and remained dicey through the event. My advice was to hold the event, since it didn't look like we'd get more than 1-2 brief showers, so it wouldn't be a washout. We ended up getting about 30 minutes of light/moderate rain about an hour into the event, but no real rain after that. So there was a bit of an impact, but far less than cancelling the event would've been for the vendors and business owners. On the other hand, though, if it had been a complete washout, all of the prep work would've been a complete waste.

For what it's worth, this weekend is looking a bit like last weekend, with an unsettled pattern, featuring some chances for showers and t-storms, especially in the afternoon/evening (fueled by the heat of the day) from maybe Friday through Monday. Any one day or half day could be completely dry (with Sunday the most likely dry day), but the forecast will still note the chance of showers, as they simply can't be ruled out, at least this far out. Maybe that will change some as we get closer and get a better handle on the setup/pattern.
 
Just imagine if we had snowstorms that deposited a foot of snow in P-way and nothing in NB or Somerville - it's bad enough around here when there's a forecast for 2-4" of snow and somebody only gets 1".
WhiteBus would be posting in a continuous spasm of orgasmic ecstasy!
 
Unfortunately, summertime forecasts, when we get into warm/hot patterns with some instability, which is quite often (like this past Friday through Monday), are even less certain than winter time snowfall forecasts. This is all due to the energy level in the atmosphere being close to 10X greater in summer than winter, which greatly increases uncertainty.

In the summer, it's not unusual for mesoscale convective t-storms to develop and behave somewhat randomly, hitting one town with an inch of rain in 20 minutes and leaving several nearby towns mostly or completely dry - most people just don't care about that outcome unless they're attending some outdoor event in that timeframe. The somewhat stochastic nature of these storms defies the ability to predict them with any accuracy, with regard to exact timing, location, and intensity.

The only thing keeping people from freaking out way more than snowstorm inaccuracy is that the impact of an inch of rain is generally far less than the impact of a foot of snow. Just imagine if we had snowstorms that deposited a foot of snow in P-way and nothing in NB or Somerville - it's bad enough around here when there's a forecast for 2-4" of snow and somebody only gets 1". This kind of thing simply can't happen, because our snowfall is never that random, given the much lower energy level in the wintertime atmosphere.

I am the "weather consultant" for the local Metuchen Junebug festival (every Saturday evening in June) and the first two were simple as we were in a dry pattern. However, this past Saturday was dicey all week and remained dicey through the event. My advice was to hold the event, since it didn't look like we'd get more than 1-2 brief showers, so it wouldn't be a washout. We ended up getting about 30 minutes of light/moderate rain about an hour into the event, but no real rain after that. So there was a bit of an impact, but far less than cancelling the event would've been for the vendors and business owners. On the other hand, though, if it had been a complete washout, all of the prep work would've been a complete waste.

For what it's worth, this weekend is looking a bit like last weekend, with an unsettled pattern, featuring some chances for showers and t-storms, especially in the afternoon/evening (fueled by the heat of the day) from maybe Friday through Monday. Any one day or half day could be completely dry (with Sunday the most likely dry day), but the forecast will still note the chance of showers, as they simply can't be ruled out, at least this far out. Maybe that will change some as we get closer and get a better handle on the setup/pattern.

Interesting stuff, thanks for the reply!
 
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