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OT Brexit Vote

RUtix4me

All American
Gold Member
Jan 18, 2015
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Amazing the traffic on Bloomberg is causing intermittent service disruption. Voting results for exit are stronger than expected. Market turmoil and volatilty is here for the evening I am guessing. Assume stay will win though.
 
If Leave wins, stock market could have big drop tomorrow. May be a good time to buy on a dip and make a couple of easy percentage points.
 
Head of the UKIP party, which was campaigning for leave, early on in the night after the polls closed said he thought remain would edge it out. First opinion poll after the polls closed was 52-48 remain also. But leave turnout has been outperforming their expected turnout most of the night. Haven't seen that so far for the remain side. London/Scotland need even heavier remain turnouts to counter balance that and so far hasn't happened with the districts reporting so far. Older voters want to leave and older voters actually go and vote. Status quo is likely less motivating than change as well. Some rain/flooding in London too which was suppose to be a strong base for remain.

ITV news reports 75% probability of a leave win.

I thought they should stay and would vote to stay. I think this will be bad for their economy and the EU will look to "make an example" of them on their trade deals, etc... to make sure others don't follow (contagion). Been quite a see saw tonight in the premarkets and the pound.

I wonder if Scotland would look to break away from the UK again (just voted in 2014) if they are dragged out because they want to stay.
 
braveheart-battle.jpg
 
If Leave wins, stock market could have big drop tomorrow. May be a good time to buy on a dip and make a couple of easy percentage points.
I've thought there was decent chance for sell the news dip even if they stayed but if they leave the dip is going to be more severe. I'll be looking around for opportunities cautiously.
 
It's light at 4:30 AM there.

Scotland voted to remain,along with Northern Ireland.
Yea that lends itself to even more uncertainty. Scotland just had a referendum on staying part of the UK or for independence a couple years ago and they stayed.

But now Scotland wants to remain part of the EU but if the UK leaves and they get dragged out unwillingly with them will they call for another referendum for independence from the UK just a couple years later.

ITV has it at 85% leave now.
 
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Apparently the Brits were unhappy with losing their influence on the world. Now they can single handedly sink the global economy in one night.
 
people fought for thousands of years for independence. I never understood the EU, maybe i need to do more research about how it operates.
 
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Apparently the Brits were unhappy with losing their influence on the world. Now they can single handedly sink the global economy in one night.
How would it sink the global economy? They don't even use the Euro. Honest question.
 
How would it sink the global economy? They don't even use the Euro. Honest question.

The restructuring of the banking system to move European operations out of London is going to be a big undertaking. Companies will need to change their supply chain and transfer pricing agreements. Until new trade agreements are in place, there will be reluctance for multinationals to commit to any course of action. There are a lot of downstream effects on global trade that will be felt. Also, the futures market priced in a "Stay" vote and will immediately give it all back now.
 
The restructuring of the banking system to move European operations out of London is going to be a big undertaking. Companies will need to change their supply chain and transfer pricing agreements. Until new trade agreements are in place, there will be reluctance for multinationals to commit to any course of action. There are a lot of downstream effects on global trade that will be felt. Also, the futures market priced in a "Stay" vote and will immediately give it all back now.
Yup markets hate the unexpected and uncertainty and this is full of both.
 
BTW don't know if Cameron will survive this either and who will takeover if he leaves. Another possible uncertainty.
 
Yea that lends itself to even more uncertainty. Scotland just had a referendum on staying part of the UK or for independence a couple years ago and they stayed.

But now Scotland wants to remain part of the EU but if the UK leaves and they get dragged out unwillingly with them will they call for another referendum for independence from the UK just a couple years later.

ITV has it at 85% leave now.

Would be very interesting if Scotland held another referendum right now - I think they'd vote to exit the UK and stay attached to the EU. Northern Ireland might, too.
 
Would be very interesting if Scotland held another referendum right now - I think they'd vote to exit the UK and stay attached to the EU. Northern Ireland might, too.
I don't know about Northern Ireland but I definitely can see Scotland doing it. I believe some of their government officials have already mentioned it. I don't expect it to happen quickly but somewhere down the line is very possible.

EDIT: A Scottish MP said Scotland voted 62-38 remain and were promised back during the independence vote that only by staying with the UK could they stay part of the EU. Well now that promise is broken so it's likely a referendum will be held.

Actually this Brexit vote is technically non binding but I'd expect the will of the people to be abided by and I've read the transition out could happen over the next few years by 2020. So I don't know how fast any of this will all happen but it looks like an uncertain/untraveled road over the next few years.
 
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