OT: Cold pattern to continue thru mid/late-Feb with greater snow chances than usual; Warm-up wk of 3/8

RU848789

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@Tango Two @Richard Schnyderite - would request this thread not be combined with Tango's thread on Sunday's event. I was going to also include Sunday's event in this thread, but just noticed that one was started, so I'll comment in that thread and leave this to the pattern discussion. Thanks.

The Pattern We're In Now and for the Next Few Weeks

So, thought it was time for a winter pattern thread for the next ~2 weeks or so. Right now it's looking quite likely that the next 2 weeks will continue to be colder than normal, with it likely being much colder than normal starting early next week through next weekend and maybe beyond (and some brutal cold is possible next week; see the CPC graphic below). Cold doesn't necessarily mean snowy, though, but the long range models also show that the pattern will also be active, especially the subtropical jet stream which often brings storms across the US. With "blocking" likely remaining in place for the next few weeks, cold air will remain and storms will have a hard time cutting to our west bringing rain. The 33andrain "pattern" thread is below.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/page/210/

This doesn't guarantee we'll get snow, as sometimes these patterns result in suppression, driving snowfall chances down to the mid-Atlantic or even further south, but it certainly creates a situation where snowstorms are more likely than they are in most other winter patterns around here. A perfect case in point could be Sunday's possible storm, which I've been posting about in the storm thread from this week. It looked threatening a few days ago, then looked like it was going to be suppressed and is now looking somewhat threatening again, with most models showing at least a few inches of snow for the Philly-NJ-NYC corridor and some showing more than that (and a couple showing some or complete suppression still) - since we're within 84 hours of this sytem, we have more models to look at.

And beyond Sunday, there are 2-3 more threats showing up from early next week through about 2/18 or so. It's possible none of these give us snow or we get a bit of snow from a few or we get hammered by one or two, but as I said, it's more likely we get snow during the next 2 weeks or so than it would be in most other patterns we see, just like it was more likely to get snow for the 2nd half of January than it would have normally been. Will just have to wait and see. The 33andrain winter threats thread link is below as is the thread to Sunday's event.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2010-weather-threats-winter-2020-21-edition-part-ii/page/360/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...nowstorm/page/24/?tab=comments#comment-269931

I also included a discussion on what many of these same folks were saying back in mid-January about the pattern we have now evolving back then. My point in sharing below what was discussed a few weeks ago is to illustrate that there is some moderate accuracy in pattern predictions for 2-3 weeks out, at least with regard to colder/warmer than normal and snowier/less snowier than normal. I don't have much confidence in seasonal forecasts made back in the fall, as very few have demonstrated skill in doing that - and most who did that this year were predicting very low snowfalls for our area due to La Nina, so obviously, most have already gotten their seasonal snow forecasts wrong.

kStemqb.png


What the Future Pattern Looked Like Back on about 1/15:

I've done pattern threads before and thought about doing one around 1/15 or so, when many of the pattern experts on the weather boards could see the pattern evolving into a cold and potentially snowy pattern, for the last part of January, but didn't get around to it and then just focused on the 1/31-2/2 storm starting around 1/23 or so. I'm not going to go into all the details, as I just don't have time, but the link below to a page on 33andrain's patterns thread on 1/15 clearly shows a lot of discussion about that pattern with high latitude "blocking" (-AO/-NAO), which often locks relatively cold air in place over the Great Lakes and NE.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/page/195/

This blocking often forces shortwaves (low pressure systems) to move underneath that blocking to our west sometimes leading to snows across the midwest into the Ohio Valley, which can reach us directly or sometimes lead to coastal lows that bring snows up the coast, like we just saw, with our Miller B, which featured both the approaching storm from the west and the transfer of that energy to a coastal low that formed off NC and rode up the coast, rather than cutting inland bringing us rain (which happened a ton the last two winters with very little blocking).

Several of these folks were talking about enhanced snowfall for the last 2 weeks in Jan into early February. Obviously, the system on 1/25-26 ended up being a good snowmaker to our west, but it just fizzled as it got here, but clearly, the storm this week more than made up for that from a snowfall perspective, as now most of this region is now well above normal for snowfall so far this winter and much of EPA, CNJ, NNJ, SENY/NYC/LI, CT are near or above normal snowfall for the entire winter and we have a good 6 weeks left for more snow - whereas DC/Balt are below normal and Providence, Boston, Portland are about normal (data below).

Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include (from donsutherland on the weather boards)

Albany: 46.4" (10.3" above normal)
Baltimore: 6.1" (5.1" below normal)
Binghamton: 77.4" (28.7" above normal)
Boston: 24.3" (0.1" below normal)
Bridgeport: 28.9" (14.6" above normal)
Caribou: 57.9" (4.9" below normal)
Harrisburg: 24.5" (8.8" above normal)
Islip: 19.5" (6.2" above normal)
New York City: 28.0" (14.9" above normal) - and already at/above the seasonal average
Newark: 31.1" (16.4" above normal) - - and already at/above the seasonal average
Philadelphia: 14.7" (3.4" above normal)
Portland: 34.5" (1.2" below normal)
Providence: 18.4" (1.8" below normal)
Washington, DC: 3.5" (5.6" below normal)
 
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WhiteBus

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How much has Saratoga Springs NY have this winter? More than Albany? Almost took a job up there a few years ago. Would have included some weekly trips to Lake George area.
 

RU848789

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How much has Saratoga Springs NY have this winter? More than Albany? Almost took a job up there a few years ago. Would have included some weekly trips to Lake George area.
Should be more, as they got 35" in the 12/16 storm that while Albany "only" got about 24", but not sure on the winter so far - will look. Beautiful area - been to Lake George several times in the summer.
 

WhiteBus

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Should be more, as they got 35" in the 12/16 storm that while Albany "only" got about 24", but not sure on the winter so far - will look. Beautiful area - been to Lake George several times in the summer.
Don't regret not making the move. Wasn't based on weather at all. As you say such beautiful areas. The company that wanted me was up for sale, which they didn't bring up during the interview and offer. But I already knew. But have friends keep looking up there for me. Someday soon hopefully.
 

e5fdny

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@Tango Two @Richard Schnyderite - would request this thread not be combined with Tango's thread on Sunday's event. I was going to also include Sunday's event in this thread, but just noticed that one was started, so I'll comment in that thread and leave this to the pattern discussion. Thanks.
Why have two?

Nobody cares about “patterns”, we want to know if it will snow on such and such date or not.

This is a discussion more suited for your weather boards.

Clutter...we have enough already on here.

And @Tango Two, the storm/event stuff is @RU848789 ‘s bag. Let him handle it. It’s what we expect on here.

He provides a great service on here and has earned the right to be THE guy when it comes to this stuff. So don’t jump the gun on him.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Why have two?

Nobody cares about “patterns”, we want to know if it will snow on such and such date or not.

This is a discussion more suited for your weather boards.

Clutter...we have enough already on here.

And @Tango Two, the storm/event stuff is @RU848789 ‘s bag. Let him handle it. It’s what we expect on here.

He provides a great service on here and has earned the right to be THE guy when it comes to this stuff. So don’t jump the gun on him.
Disagree. Tango posted first, no need for whining. Just post in that thread.
 

BROTHERSKINNY

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Numbers, is THE guy for the weather threads. That last storm thread may be one of the funniest threads I have ever read on TKR. From #’s walls of text, to spankys very judicious use of words. How can I forget people “nodding off like a narcoleptic on ambien”. Who knew a weather thread could be so much fun? Keep’em coming #’s.
 

rurichdog

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5 1/2 weeks until the first scheduled application of Prodiamine and we're just now getting into the full winter swing.
 

RU848789

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Why have two?

Nobody cares about “patterns”, we want to know if it will snow on such and such date or not.

This is a discussion more suited for your weather boards.

Clutter...we have enough already on here.

And @Tango Two, the storm/event stuff is @RU848789 ‘s bag. Let him handle it. It’s what we expect on here.

He provides a great service on here and has earned the right to be THE guy when it comes to this stuff. So don’t jump the gun on him.
I agree there's much less interest in patterns, although some of the pattern threads have generated many pages of discussion, so I'll still post the occasional pattern thread. I also like starting the weather threads so I can update the thread title as needed, but Tango kind of can't help himself even when he knows I was talking about the storm in the other thread, waiting for a signal to start a thread on it, which we got with this afternoon's runs. Whatever, even I get tired of arguing sometimes.
 

e5fdny

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I agree there's much less interest in patterns, although some of the pattern threads have generated many pages of discussion, so I'll still post the occasional pattern thread. I also like starting the weather threads so I can update the thread title as needed, but Tango kind of can't help himself even when he knows I was talking about the storm in the other thread, waiting for a signal to start a thread on it, which we got with this afternoon's runs. Whatever, even I get tired of arguing sometimes.
“...many pages of discussion” 😛

Well at least you admit it. LOL

You and I both know he wants to be the one to start anything.
 
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bac2therac

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Why have two?

Nobody cares about “patterns”, we want to know if it will snow on such and such date or not.

This is a discussion more suited for your weather boards.

Clutter...we have enough already on here.

And @Tango Two, the storm/event stuff is @RU848789 ‘s bag. Let him handle it. It’s what we expect on here.

He provides a great service on here and has earned the right to be THE guy when it comes to this stuff. So don’t jump the gun on him.


same
 

RU848789

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@Tango Two @Richard Schnyderite - would request this thread not be combined with Tango's thread on Sunday's event. I was going to also include Sunday's event in this thread, but just noticed that one was started, so I'll comment in that thread and leave this to the pattern discussion. Thanks.

The Pattern We're In Now and for the Next Few Weeks

So, thought it was time for a winter pattern thread for the next ~2 weeks or so. Right now it's looking quite likely that the next 2 weeks will continue to be colder than normal, with it likely being much colder than normal starting early next week through next weekend and maybe beyond (and some brutal cold is possible next week; see the CPC graphic below). Cold doesn't necessarily mean snowy, though, but the long range models also show that the pattern will also be active, especially the subtropical jet stream which often brings storms across the US. With "blocking" likely remaining in place for the next few weeks, cold air will remain and storms will have a hard time cutting to our west bringing rain. The 33andrain "pattern" thread is below.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/page/210/

This doesn't guarantee we'll get snow, as sometimes these patterns result in suppression, driving snowfall chances down to the mid-Atlantic or even further south, but it certainly creates a situation where snowstorms are more likely than they are in most other winter patterns around here. A perfect case in point could be Sunday's possible storm, which I've been posting about in the storm thread from this week. It looked threatening a few days ago, then looked like it was going to be suppressed and is now looking somewhat threatening again, with most models showing at least a few inches of snow for the Philly-NJ-NYC corridor and some showing more than that (and a couple showing some or complete suppression still) - since we're within 84 hours of this sytem, we have more models to look at.

And beyond Sunday, there are 2-3 more threats showing up from early next week through about 2/18 or so. It's possible none of these give us snow or we get a bit of snow from a few or we get hammered by one or two, but as I said, it's more likely we get snow during the next 2 weeks or so than it would be in most other patterns we see, just like it was more likely to get snow for the 2nd half of January than it would have normally been. Will just have to wait and see. The 33andrain winter threats thread link is below as is the thread to Sunday's event.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2010-weather-threats-winter-2020-21-edition-part-ii/page/360/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...nowstorm/page/24/?tab=comments#comment-269931

I also included a discussion on what many of these same folks were saying back in mid-January about the pattern we have now evolving back then. My point in sharing below what was discussed a few weeks ago is to illustrate that there is some moderate accuracy in pattern predictions for 2-3 weeks out, at least with regard to colder/warmer than normal and snowier/less snowier than normal. I don't have much confidence in seasonal forecasts made back in the fall, as very few have demonstrated skill in doing that - and most who did that this year were predicting very low snowfalls for our area due to La Nina, so obviously, most have already gotten their seasonal snow forecasts wrong.

kStemqb.png


What the Future Pattern Looked Like Back on about 1/15:

I've done pattern threads before and thought about doing one around 1/15 or so, when many of the pattern experts on the weather boards could see the pattern evolving into a cold and potentially snowy pattern, for the last part of January, but didn't get around to it and then just focused on the 1/31-2/2 storm starting around 1/23 or so. I'm not going to go into all the details, as I just don't have time, but the link below to a page on 33andrain's patterns thread on 1/15 clearly shows a lot of discussion about that pattern with high latitude "blocking" (-AO/-NAO), which often locks relatively cold air in place over the Great Lakes and NE.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1959-met-winter-20-21-pattern-drivers-evolution/page/195/

This blocking often forces shortwaves (low pressure systems) to move underneath that blocking to our west sometimes leading to snows across the midwest into the Ohio Valley, which can reach us directly or sometimes lead to coastal lows that bring snows up the coast, like we just saw, with our Miller B, which featured both the approaching storm from the west and the transfer of that energy to a coastal low that formed off NC and rode up the coast, rather than cutting inland bringing us rain (which happened a ton the last two winters with very little blocking).

Several of these folks were talking about enhanced snowfall for the last 2 weeks in Jan into early February. Obviously, the system on 1/25-26 ended up being a good snowmaker to our west, but it just fizzled as it got here, but clearly, the storm this week more than made up for that from a snowfall perspective, as now most of this region is now well above normal for snowfall so far this winter and much of EPA, CNJ, NNJ, SENY/NYC/LI, CT are near or above normal snowfall for the entire winter and we have a good 6 weeks left for more snow - whereas DC/Balt are below normal and Providence, Boston, Portland are about normal (data below).

Seasonal snowfall amounts to date include (from donsutherland on the weather boards)

Albany: 46.4" (10.3" above normal)
Baltimore: 6.1" (5.1" below normal)
Binghamton: 77.4" (28.7" above normal)
Boston: 24.3" (0.1" below normal)
Bridgeport: 28.9" (14.6" above normal)
Caribou: 57.9" (4.9" below normal)
Harrisburg: 24.5" (8.8" above normal)
Islip: 19.5" (6.2" above normal)
New York City: 28.0" (14.9" above normal) - and already at/above the seasonal average
Newark: 31.1" (16.4" above normal) - - and already at/above the seasonal average
Philadelphia: 14.7" (3.4" above normal)
Portland: 34.5" (1.2" below normal)
Providence: 18.4" (1.8" below normal)
Washington, DC: 3.5" (5.6" below normal)

So, it looks like tomorrow's event will be significant (4-8" for most) and next week is shaping up to be very cold with Tuesday being the only day above 32F (and not by a lot), plus as per the CPC map I showed above and the long range models, the week of 2/14 is also likely to be well below normal. In addition, there will be multiple more chances at snow. Tuesday looks like a N/W snowfall with 2-4" N of 80 and maybe an inch N of 78, but very little along 95 (little precip and borderline temps). But Thursday has the potential to be a significant winter storm (mostly snow) for the entire area and there could be another system on Saturday.

For longer range trend forecasting, the Euro ensembles are typically the way to go with regard to seeing if a period beyond 5 days is likely to be snowy or not, as the ensemble forecast involves running the "standard" operational model, but using minor variations in the model's initial conditions around the globe, since initial conditions are often sparse and/or not well defined (especially over the oceans, which are 3/4 of the earth's surface), so these perturbations provide some sense of the sensitivity of the models, such that the "mean" of the ensemble members is usually a better indicator of longer term outcomes than just the single operational model.

Given that preamble, the Euro ensembles from this morning are very bullish on snowfall for our area over the next 15 days, as per the map below. Obviously, one needs to subtract out about 4-5" from tomorrow's storm (ensembles always show less than a "centered" op, since they include outliers that will not have any snow) from these maps, but even with that, these ensembles are showing about 10" for the rest of the coming 15 days, which is very high for an ensemble mean (in any 2 week period in February, one would expect to get about 4-5" of snow, based on 9" of snow in February, on average, for NYC). Doesn't guarantee more snow at all, but that's the way to bet in a pattern like this.

rXJP9oh.png
 

e5fdny

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So, it looks like tomorrow's event will be significant (4-8" for most) and next week is shaping up to be very cold with Tuesday being the only day above 32F (and not by a lot), plus as per the CPC map I showed above and the long range models, the week of 2/14 is also likely to be well below normal. In addition, there will be multiple more chances at snow. Tuesday looks like a N/W snowfall with 2-4" N of 80 and maybe an inch N of 78, but very little along 95 (little precip and borderline temps). But Thursday has the potential to be a significant winter storm (mostly snow) for the entire area and there could be another system on Saturday.

For longer range trend forecasting, the Euro ensembles are typically the way to go with regard to seeing if a period beyond 5 days is likely to be snowy or not, as the ensemble forecast involves running the "standard" operational model, but using minor variations in the model's initial conditions around the globe, since initial conditions are often sparse and/or not well defined (especially over the oceans, which are 3/4 of the earth's surface), so these perturbations provide some sense of the sensitivity of the models, such that the "mean" of the ensemble members is usually a better indicator of longer term outcomes than just the single operational model.

Given that preamble, the Euro ensembles from this morning are very bullish on snowfall for our area over the next 15 days, as per the map below. Obviously, one needs to subtract out about 4-5" from tomorrow's storm (ensembles always show less than a "centered" op, since they include outliers that will not have any snow) from these maps, but even with that, these ensembles are showing about 10" for the rest of the coming 15 days, which is very high for an ensemble mean (in any 2 week period in February, one would expect to get about 4-5" of snow, based on 9" of snow in February, on average, for NYC). Doesn't guarantee more snow at all, but that's the way to bet in a pattern like this.

rXJP9oh.png
4wyoqz.jpg
 

RU848789

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Brief update. Likely a few inches of snow for NW areas on Tuesday (could be an inch down to 95, but not a given), then possibly a 3-6/4-8" snowfall on Thursday and maybe some more on Sunday, kind of like this storm, but these are highly uncertain still. And apart from Tuesday getting up to 35-40F, it likely won't get above 32F all week and maybe much of next week. Will likely start a thread for both Tuesday and Thursday later today.
 

RU848789

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So, the Monday event whiffed for everyone south of 80, but did deliver 2-4" north of 80, as forecasted and tomorrow's event, after looking like a possible whiff for N of 276/195, is poised to now deliever 2-4" as per that thread, linked below.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...t-likely-thurs-2-11-12-for-most.211338/page-3

With regard to the cold and snowy pattern we're in, there's likely more to come over the next week or so.
Saturday night into Sunday could feature a moderate winter storm with all kinds of precip possible – too early for forecasts, but could be several inches of snow for NW areas and a mix along 95 (freezing rain is possible with this one) and maybe mostly rain for the coast - models are truly all over the map on this one, which is why I didn't start a thread - will start one tonight after seeing what the 0Z models have to say, because there's nothing more important on this board than keeping @e5fdny happy. :>)

And there’s another potential storm on Tuesday and this one looks like it could be more substantial than tomorrow's or the Sat into Sunday event, but again, it’s too far away for any details. There's a decent possibility many locations, including NB and NYC, will reach 30" of snow this February, which would be top 3 all-time for each (they're both around 24" right now and should get 2-3" tomorrow).

Temps should remain well below normal, overall for the next 7-10 days, at least, with the "blocking" pattern continuing, and highs generally at or below 32F with a few days in the mid-30s for highs and we'll have some days in the 20s. However, it's possible the pattern will break down somewhat and we'll have normal temps starting late next week (not a given).

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...part-ii/page/419/?tab=comments#comment-275260
 

RU848789

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Not sold on tomorrow we shall see
Why not? It's every model, as opposed to Monday, when there was much more disagreement and the NWS went with the snowier models for south of 80 and were wrong. I'm pretty confident in tomorrow's forecast, but the models have all been off a bit right before an event, like Sunday, when almost all were showing 2-4".
 

RU848789

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News12 guy says something but further south. Like Cape May to AC?
News12 is not the best IMO. They did not do well at all on 2/1, but did ok on 2/7. Maybe you saw old info - I just checked and they're now calling for 2-3" for CNJ, although clearly more is likely south of 195 (they just updated as far as I can tell). And you're using the wrong thread, lol.
 

bac2therac

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Why not? It's every model, as opposed to Monday, when there was much more disagreement and the NWS went with the snowier models for south of 80 and were wrong. I'm pretty confident in tomorrow's forecast, but the models have all been off a bit right before an event, like Sunday, when almost all were showing 2-4".

Exactly why..the models have been off and 30 makes makes a huge difference as we saw with yesterdays 1-2 inch no show
 
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e5fdny

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News12 is not the best IMO. They did not do well at all on 2/1, but did ok on 2/7. Maybe you saw old info - I just checked and they're now calling for 2-3" for CNJ, although clearly more is likely south of 195 (they just updated as far as I can tell). * And you're using the wrong thread, lol.
Where I am it looks we are more on the low end.

* And zing! LOL
 

RU848789

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This is what a "cold and snowy" pattern looks like, lol (even though the next few storms may be more sleety/icy)...

nQ2fgVx.png
 

RUhasarrived

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There must be some pretty bad weather in Hot Springs,Arkansas as Oaklawn Park has just canceled racing for today,a fairly rare occurrence for them.