OT: Covid Relief - The Annual ScarletNation Hurricane Contest is Here!

[RU4Real]

Predictions are starting to roll in, including the old benchmark from Colorado State University. So it's time, once again, to get your predictions in for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

CSU predicts that this season will be "active", with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Cat 3 +). The rules of our contest are as they always have been:

The CSU estimate is broken down to award 1 point for each named storm, 1.25 points for each hurricane and 1.75 points for each major hurricane. The point totals are then set against a multiplier so that the overall estimate totals 100 points. So for this year:

CSU: (16*1) + (8*1.25) + (4*1.75) x 3.0302 = 100

At the end of the season, the Actual Number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes will be run through the same formula. The entry that is closest to that number is the winner.

Remember, the goal is twofold: You want to come closest to the actual total and you want to beat the CSU prediction, as well - the core assumption of this contest is that some random message board poster will come closer to reality, at the end of the season, than CSU's prediction.

Please submit your entries in this thread as "Number of Named Storms, Number of Hurricanes, Number of Major Hurricanes", e.g. "10, 6, 1".

Tallies will be made at the end of the Atlantic Tropical Season, Nov. 30 2020, and the winner announced.

*Important rule change for 2020: "Named storms" which occur prior to the June 1 official start of Hurricane Season will not be counted.

Good luck, and Godspeed. Remember to stay alive during Covid season, because You Must Be Present to Win!

 

[RUBB86]

12, 6, 3

 

[RU Cheese]

Predictions are starting to roll in, including the old benchmark from Colorado State University. So it's time, once again, to get your predictions in for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season!

CSU predicts that this season will be "active", with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (Cat 3 +). The rules of our contest are as they always have been:

The CSU estimate is broken down to award 1 point for each named storm, 1.25 points for each hurricane and 1.75 points for each major hurricane. The point totals are then set against a multiplier so that the overall estimate totals 100 points. So for this year:

CSU: (16*1) + (8*1.25) + (4*1.75) x 3.0302 = 100

At the end of the season, the Actual Number of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes will be run through the same formula. The entry that is closest to that number is the winner.

Remember, the goal is twofold: You want to come closest to the actual total and you want to beat the CSU prediction, as well - the core assumption of this contest is that some random message board poster will come closer to reality, at the end of the season, than CSU's prediction.

Please submit your entries in this thread as "Number of Named Storms, Number of Hurricanes, Number of Major Hurricanes", e.g. "10, 6, 1".

Tallies will be made at the end of the Atlantic Tropical Season, Nov. 30 2020, and the winner announced.

*Important rule change for 2020: "Named storms" which occur prior to the June 1 official start of Hurricane Season will not be counted.

Good luck, and Godspeed. Remember to stay alive during Covid season, because You Must Be Present to Win!

4Real - can you give everyone a quick reminder of who last years winner / reigning champion is? Just curious

 

[RUScrew85]

4Real - can you give everyone a quick reminder of who last years winner / reigning champion is? Just curious

I won the first contest.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

13 , 7, 3
bonus answer: Hanna will be a real bitch...

 

[RU4Real]

I won the first contest.

Yes, we all remember. You did good.

4Real - can you give everyone a quick reminder of who last years winner / reigning champion is? Just curious

Last year's winner was @RU Cheese, with a point total of 134, compared to CSU's 135. Excellent performence.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to get @RU848789 to bite on this yet. He refuses. :)

 

[RUsince52]

Does Cristobal only count if it's a west coast storm or does it count double ?

 

[RU4Real]

Does Cristobal only count if it's a west coast storm or does it count double ?

Atlantic hurricane season. Pacific storms are an entirely different thing.

 

[RUfromSoCal?]

When does official voting close?

 

[RU4Real]

When does official voting close?

View embedded media

May 31. As indicated in the OP: *Important rule change for 2020: "Named storms" which occur prior to the June 1 official start of Hurricane Season will not be counted.

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

14, 6, 2

 

[RU4Real]

14, 6, 2

Your entry is recorded.

 

[ClassOf02]

15, 7, 2

 

[RU4Real]

15, 7, 2

Duly recorded, sir.

 

[DJ Spanky]

My entry:

17 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

 

[RU4Real]

My entry:

17 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

Bertha doesn't count either, FWIW.

Also, your entry happens to be exactly the same as mine.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

These A and B storms are stat fillers for the NHC...there have been mesoscale convective systems that were far more potent than these two early “tropical storms”...but it fill their stats nicely!

 

[T2Kplus10]

Yes, we all remember. You did good.



Last year's winner was @RU Cheese, with a point total of 134, compared to CSU's 135. Excellent performence.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to get @RU848789 to bite on this yet. He refuses. :)

#'s is afraid to be wrong.

 

[RU4Real]

These A and B storms are stat fillers for the NHC...there have been mesoscale convective systems that were far more potent than these two early “tropical storms”...but it fill their stats nicely!

It's why I've always said that long-term year over year comparison of Atlantic tropical activity is a fool's errand. 100 years ago storms were named when they hit land or when they ran over a reasonably well-equipped vessel at sea. Today they're naming storms - and increasing their advertised intensity - based on satellite observations, alone. Observational bias has completely changed.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Also, your entry happens to be exactly the same as mine.

Is that okay? I base my entries off of the statistical analysis of trends over the last 3, 5 and 10 years.
Edit: Crap, just realized that this rule change statistically screws up my numbers. Let me think about this for a bit.

 

[RU4Real]

Is that okay? I base my entries off of the statistical analysis of trends over the last 3, 5 and 10 years.
Edit: Crap, just realized that this rule change statistically screws up my numbers. Let me think about this for a bit.

Take your time. You have 4 days. :)

 

[DJ Spanky]

*Important rule change for 2020: "Named storms" which occur prior to the June 1 official start of Hurricane Season will not be counted.

Point of clarification: if a storm starts in May but continues as a named storm into June, is it counted?

Take your time. You have 4 days. :)

No worries, reworked my spreadsheet to take this into account. Just need the answer to the above question before putting in my answer.

 

[RU4Real]

Point of clarification: if a storm starts in May but continues as a named storm into June, is it counted?

If it's named prior to 6/1, it doesn't count.

 

[DJ Spanky]

If it's named prior to 6/1, it doesn't count.

After taking into account that named storms prior to 5/31 aren't counted:

16 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

 

[RU4Real]

After taking into account that named storms prior to 5/31 aren't counted:

16 Named Storms
6 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes

So you're gonna undercut me by a point?

This isn't "The Price is Right." Dick. :)

 

[DJ Spanky]

So you're gonna undercut me by a point?

This isn't "The Price is Right." Dick. :)

Last year I was almost dead on, but the "formula" determined someone else was the winner even though I was closer. So this year I'm going a little conservative. Plus, the named storm before June thing lowered my total named storms by 1 in both the 3 year and 5 year average.

So Bite Me!

 

[RU4Real]

Last year I was almost dead on, but the "formula" determined someone else was the winner even though I was closer. So this year I'm going a little conservative. Plus, the named storm before June thing lowered my total named storms by 1 in both the 3 year and 5 year average.

So Bite Me!

No problem, buddy - you do you.

If we're lucky, you can collect your trophy at the Penn State game.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

Hurricanes? I left them behind. I am facing 107F to 112F for the foreseeable future . Soon it will be haboobs or dust storms, extreme winds followed by monsoon rains gulley washers and floods. Maybe the ,'canes weren't so bad?

 

[RU Cheese]

16 - 7 - 2

- Defending Champ

 

[RU4Real]

Three days to go folks. Still no entries from past winners @RUScrew85 and @RUJohnny99. Lots of opportunity for someone to swoop in and claim the prize!

 

[DJ Spanky]

So Tropical Storm Cristobal becomes our first entry!

 

[RU4Real]

So Tropical Storm Cristobal becomes our first entry!

That is affirmative.

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

Cristobal was gonna hit NJ, but its wife is going to have it hit Florida instead.

 

[RU4Real]

Cristobal was gonna hit NJ, but its wife is going to have it hit Florida instead.

Certainly won't be much left of it by the time it gets to Oregon.

 

[DJ Spanky]

I understand that some upper level wind shear ended up blowing him towards Alabama.

 

[RU848789]

Yes, we all remember. You did good.



Last year's winner was @RU Cheese, with a point total of 134, compared to CSU's 135. Excellent performence.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to get @RU848789 to bite on this yet. He refuses. :)

I enjoy following the thread every year, though - I actually say go with Dr Gray/Klotzbach every year. Don't really like the exclusion of pre-June storms, though - they're there and they're real, so it seems odd to exclude them. Anyway, the new CSU forecast is out and they've upped the projections a bit, given warm Atlantic Basin sea surface temps and especially the likelihood of a weak La Nina, which is conducive to Atlantic tropical activity. Note that while the number of storms is well above normal, the ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) is about normal, meaning, on average, the storms won't be particularly strong or long-lived. The last thing this country needs right now is a busy tropical season with large impacts.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-06.pdf

NOAA's forecast came out a few weeks ago and is very similar, although they give fairly wide ranges for each of the key categories vs. CSU's single number forecasts.

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/busy-atlantic-hurricane-season-predicted-for-2020

 

[RU4Real]

We exclude the pre-June storms for the simple reason that the season officially starts on June 1, and also because it gives people more time to compile their entries.

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

How many of you took the Saharan dust plume into account when you made your predictions?
I had never heard of this before, but I found it pretty interesting.
https://apple.news/AWj5_c_N8Sze-0iJXLM-NPw

 

[RU4Real]

How many of you took the Saharan dust plume into account when you made your predictions?
I had never heard of this before, but I found it pretty interesting.
https://apple.news/AWj5_c_N8Sze-0iJXLM-NPw

It will suppress any storm formation, to be sure. On the other hand, this time of year that doesn't have a major impact on the totals.

I saw a model discussion today that talked about activity in the eastern Atlantic starting to spin up over the next couple of weeks. We'll see what happens.

 

[RU848789]

It will suppress any storm formation, to be sure. On the other hand, this time of year that doesn't have a major impact on the totals.

I saw a model discussion today that talked about activity in the eastern Atlantic starting to spin up over the next couple of weeks. We'll see what happens.

Yep, usually a much bigger issue for the Cape Verde (still can't call it Cabo Verde yet, lol) season starting in August-ish.