Well, you also failed to respond to my comments on Levitt from a few days ago showing how bad most of his predictions were - even Nobel Laureates can be way off, especially outside of their areas of expertise...
OT: Daily COVID thread — 9/11
- Thread starter Richie O
- Start date
- Status
Don't have to be a lawyer to impeach someone's credibility on a message board. Linkedin can do what it wants, private company.
Yes, but if I told you I'd have to...just kidding - even when I was there full-time and wired into the whole pipeline (I used to run a meeting reviewing our entire small molecule pipeline from a process development perspective), we normally wouldn't get a heads up on breaking clinical info until maybe the day before public release and sometimes not even that. But yes, soon, i.e., we should know about the phase II trials within a week or two, based on publicly available info, and if good, we'll go to phase III right away. We're planning for having manufactured supplies ready in case everything works out, but that's not a given of course.
Packages are nice. 😉 Pay will be a decent amount more, but definitely not 3X. Hard to command a lot more when it's part-time (I wanted no part of full-time work again so I'm pretty happy with the deal).
Probably were not forced to wear inferior gear. union protection.
So the kid that was the football player died without going to the hospital I guess. I am sure there are morezero hospitalizations....26K college positives
Brown U. epidemiologist finds zero hospitalizations from 26,000 positive COVID tests for college students | The College Fix
It would make sense for colleges to treat their students like prisoners if those on campus were a demonstrable public health risk. Yet the data so far show the exact opposite.www.thecollegefix.com
Still not the topic at hand, namely how LinkedIn is censoring and banning people for citing and quoting technical papers published in major journals. And it always seems to follow the liberal party line. Twitter and Facebook pull the same crap. Scary. As for your post, please point me to it. I still work for a living and I can't give up half of a work day deciphering one of your posts. As for Levitt, he has made some predictions that turned out to be wrong, but he has some valid arguments backed by a lot of other scientists
That football player didn't die of corona, it was fake news and corrected.
I dislike censorship, so I'm no fan of what LinkedIn apparently did.
With regard to the other topic, you posted an inaccurate tweet by some guy with a video of Levitt complaining about how science has missed the mark. My reply is below with the link.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Greg with all due respect my brother , a 40 year resident of Scottsdale Arizona , had two of his family tested just within 2 weeks... did not relate anything about difficulty getting tested... said the hospital rush and positives were down as well as the number of fatalities ... so maybe ...
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
From the wiki page (with citations) on Levitt. Nobody believes those China numbers (that he supposedly nailed), which have to be at least 5-10X greater, so that prediction sucked and most of his other forecasts haven't been so hot either, especially his prediction of 10 total deaths in Israel (over 1000 and counting) and his most recent gak in predicting on 7/25 that COVID would be over in 4 weeks and deaths would be below 170K.
In March, the Los Angeles Times reported that Levitt correctly forecasted in February that the COVID-19 pandemic in China would soon peak and that China would end up with around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths from COVID-19.[41] However, it has been noted that Levitt actually made a number of predictions, including incorrect forecasts, in February about China's COVID-19 trajectory[42], including one on February 7, 2020 claiming that "by 14-Feb. we will have reached 95% of the eventual death count of 928".[43] Levitt also has stated his belief that achieving natural herd immunity to the virus is possible[44] and has spoken against lockdown orders.[45]
Levitt also wrongly predicted that Israel would suffer no more than 10 COVID-19 deaths[46]. On July 25, 2020, Levitt predicted that COVID-19 in the United States would be over "in 4 weeks with total reported deaths below 170,000".[47] However, this prediction about the reported death count also ended up being wrong as the number of reported deaths from COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 170,000 on August 16, 2020, only 3 weeks after Levitt's prediction.[48]
And calling this a "bad flu?" Seriously? A bad flu is 60-70K deaths not 193K and likely to be at least 300K by the time we have a vaccine. Also, his comment of a 0.04-0.05% population fatality ratio regardless of lockdown is just nuts. That would be 165K in the US, which isn't far off the current number, although it'll be at least 2X off soon; however, that would be 55K in Japan, where 1357 have died so far and the same is true in many other countries. He also thought we'd do better than China back on 3/25. So tell my why we should listen to Levitt, in general. Doesn't mean he's wrong that science has not always been a shining example during COVID, but I think he's focusing on the bad and not the good, especially the the great worldwide collaborations on research into how COVID impacts the body and on developing new treatments and vaccines.
Nice tracker of vaccines and treatments in development:
covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org
Milken Institute’s COVID-19 Treatment and Vaccine Tracker tracks the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19 at covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org #COVID19 #coronavirus #COVID19treatment #COVID19vaccine @MilkenInstitute @FirstPersonSF
The Milken Institute’s COVID-19 Treatment and Vaccine Tracker tracks the development of treatments and vaccines for COVID-19 (coronavirus). Explore the latest updates on the urgent race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine.
covid-19tracker.milkeninstitute.org
Nothing to do with Levitt, but it is interesting to compare NJ to Israel due to similar size population. NJ has around 8.9 million people, 198K confirmed cases, and around 16K deaths, around 8% of confirmed cases. Israel has 8.7 million people, 149K confirmed cases, but only 1,090 deaths, a death rate of under 1% (with 112K of the 149K infected now considered cured). Part of that is explainable by the difference in average age, with the avg age in the US being around 38 where Israel is 30. I'd be willing to bet that israel has lower obesity and co-morbidity than the US as well, and probably wider testing, meaning more asymptomatic infections. Still, that is a heck of a difference in CFR (case fatality rate). Thoughts?
U.S. COVID death rate by state 2023 | Statista
As of March 2023, Arizona had the highest COVID death rate in the U.S., with 455 deaths per 100,000 population. Hawaii had the lowest death rate.
www.statista.com
Any analysis needs to show how northeastern states policy of sending corona infected to nursing homes and rehabs increased the death toll by tens of thousands
No sad. Lots of people completely discounted the negatives of going back to school.
Two of the three were never in school with students. Only back to school prep with other teachers.
Dont mind the dopes that repeat fear mongering talking points. Fear over facts for them
Can you please link the studies or articles showing children have spread this to their teachers or family members?
My wife reacted to something on FB where she made a negative quote about Biden and got a warning when she tried to post it and it would not let her post
The % of deaths from LTC facilities is fairly close from state to state the last time I checked. The big problem with NE states was that the LTC facilities were already infected before anyone knew what was going on, like the rest of the population in those states. The whole “sending back to the nursing home storyline” is overdone. It didn’t help, but not as much as you’d think based on comparing stats from other states.
I think NJ in actuality probably had closer to 1 million cases as numerous people couldn't get tested originally. At least 15 people alone that I personally know were symptomatic (like fever, chills, chest pain) and couldn't be tested, and then tested positive for antibodies. Plus israel likely has a healthier population.
please cite the studies that somehow children magically don't spread the disease even though they can get it and be sick with it? Thanks.
You mean facts like American cities aren't burning down even though you're too afraid to be in any of them?
How about policies like giving China our PPE, and saying 15 cases soon to be zero when knowing it wasn't true?
I dislike censorship, so I'm no fan of what LinkedIn apparently did.
With regard to the other topic, you posted an inaccurate tweet by some guy with a video of Levitt complaining about how science has missed the mark. My reply is below with the link.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
Greg with all due respect my brother , a 40 year resident of Scottsdale Arizona , had two of his family tested just within 2 weeks... did not relate anything about difficulty getting tested... said the hospital rush and positives were down as well as the number of fatalities ... so maybe ...
From the wiki page (with citations) on Levitt. Nobody believes those China numbers (that he supposedly nailed), which have to be at least 5-10X greater, so that prediction sucked and most of his other forecasts haven't been so hot either, especially his prediction of 10 total deaths in Israel (over 1000 and counting) and his most recent gak in predicting on 7/25 that COVID would be over in 4 weeks and deaths would be below 170K.
In March, the Los Angeles Times reported that Levitt correctly forecasted in February that the COVID-19 pandemic in China would soon peak and that China would end up with around 80,000 cases and 3,250 deaths from COVID-19.[41] However, it has been noted that Levitt actually made a number of predictions, including incorrect forecasts, in February about China's COVID-19 trajectory[42], including one on February 7, 2020 claiming that "by 14-Feb. we will have reached 95% of the eventual death count of 928".[43] Levitt also has stated his belief that achieving natural herd immunity to the virus is possible[44] and has spoken against lockdown orders.[45]
Levitt also wrongly predicted that Israel would suffer no more than 10 COVID-19 deaths[46]. On July 25, 2020, Levitt predicted that COVID-19 in the United States would be over "in 4 weeks with total reported deaths below 170,000".[47] However, this prediction about the reported death count also ended up being wrong as the number of reported deaths from COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 170,000 on August 16, 2020, only 3 weeks after Levitt's prediction.[48]
And calling this a "bad flu?" Seriously? A bad flu is 60-70K deaths not 193K and likely to be at least 300K by the time we have a vaccine. Also, his comment of a 0.04-0.05% population fatality ratio regardless of lockdown is just nuts. That would be 165K in the US, which isn't far off the current number, although it'll be at least 2X off soon; however, that would be 55K in Japan, where 1357 have died so far and the same is true in many other countries. He also thought we'd do better than China back on 3/25. So tell my why we should listen to Levitt, in general. Doesn't mean he's wrong that science has not always been a shining example during COVID, but I think he's focusing on the bad and not the good, especially the the great worldwide collaborations on research into how COVID impacts the body and on developing new treatments and vaccines.
I'm not a Levitt fanboy and will not (and cannot) defend every one of his predictions. I don't recall seeing your reply. We have been buried at work lately, so much so that we had to increase our attorney head count by 25% to keep up with work. My contemporaries at other patent firms are seeing a similar uptick this year. So, sometimes I post in the morning, or if I take a small break to keep up with my Twitter feed, which includes Dr. Levitt and Ivor Cummins (he is the "some guy" you referred to). Ivor posts under the handle Fat Emperor, which is a great handle. He is one of many people I follow on keto dieting, cholesterol management, etc. For some reason, Ivor (who is Irish) has been concentrating on Covid-19 and lockdowns. So Ivor and Dr. Levitt are brothers in arms when it comes to some of the over the top government restrictions during Covid-19.
Dr. Levitt has quite an interesting life and background- born in Pretoria, South Africa to a Jewish family to a Lithuanian father and a Czech mother--what combination! He know splits his time between Stanford and Israel. I like Dr. Levitt for his ability to speak his mind, even if it against the majority, and he does so passionately and vigorously, without worrying about the consequences. He has earned a vocal group of detractors.
My original post was about how scientists have failed the younger generation and there should have been more cooperation and committees of scientists formed. He is railing against the censorship of scientists with contrary views and the corruption and politicization of science. THAT is what the post was about. You decided to pivot on this and go on a takedown of Dr. Levitt's credibility and how he missed the mark on his predictions.
You denigrate Dr. Levitt's China predictions because "nobody believes those China numbers" and "that predictions sucked." There is no reasonable way to respond to your statements without getting in an argument nobody will win.
As to Dr. Levitt's claim of 10 deaths in Israel, he addressed and clarified in his Tweet that he was referring to excess deaths, whatever that means, but obviously he still missed he mark.
So, back to Dr. Levitt's original stance-- he is anti-lockdown. Didn't he get Sweden right, when he stated on May 4:
“If Sweden stops at about 5,000 or 6,000 deaths, we will know that they’ve reached herd immunity, and we didn’t need to do any kind of lockdown. My own feeling is that it will probably stop because of herd immunity. COVID is serious, it’s at least a serious flu. But it’s not going to destroy humanity as people thought.” Current number of Sweden deaths is 5,846.
While it is difficult to compare one country to another because of other measures (such as mask wearing compliance and contact tracing, testing, etc.) there are many countries that did not enact lockdowns that have had some of the lowest case fatality rates- notably Belarus, Taiwan, South Korea, Brazil, Japan, Uruguay. I believe Dr. Levitt's overall point on being anti-lockdown is that it is nice wise government policy to shut down the entire economy, when it is better strategy to isolate the elderly and at risk populations.
I don't have time to go back and forth any more on this. Regardless of his predictions, I generally agree with Dr. Levitt that lockdown policies, which often result in increased governmental powers (just look at Gov. Murphy) is bad policy. We had a lockdown in New Jersey, and the NJ case fatality rate is terrible. Maybe NJ would have done a lot better on CFR if they had not done such a terrible job with nursing homes. And NY and NJ lead the nation in deaths per 100,000 people, at 180 and 170. Meanwhile, non-lockdown states like Wyoming (7), Nebraska (22), N. Dakota (21), S. Dakota (20) and Arkansas (31) have done much better on this metric.
The number of fatalities isn't because we had a lockdown. Correlation does not prove causation. It is the equiavlent of saying exterminators cause people to have rats, because people who don't have exterminators don't have rats. We had to have such a severe lockdown because of the number of deaths and cases. The states you mentioned are not densely populated, not travel hubs, and didn't get hit early by the disease. Arizona is a top 7 state now in deaths per capita, Missippi is the 6th highest state in deaths per capita, and by the end of next week it looks like Georgia, South Carolina and Florida will all pass Pennsylvania in deaths per capita.
The post linked below has some good info in it, including a link to a previous post focused on an Israeli study that had some fairly strong evidence of viral spread from students to teachers/staff.
It is a done deal? BigTen Is Canceling Football Season Tuesday?
This thread isn't even about NJ restrictions. You're really losing it. Ha! Has any thread on here stayed on a narrow subject? That is your comeback?? That's all you got??? Bravo another response that isn't a response. What a CE clown
rutgers.forums.rivals.com
More recently, there have been a slew of studies and opinion pieces suggesting a wide range of transmissibility between childrend and adults. Clearly, studies have shown children with as much or more viral load as adults (1st link), but we also know children aren't impacted nearly as seriously as adults and there are less documented cases of transmission from children to adults, but a big part of that could very well be that closing down schools in so many states/countries greatly reduced the potential for such transmissions. Here are three links with somewhat opposing views on this.
Kids with COVID have more viral RNA in their airways than adults do
Opinion | Kids Aren’t Big Covid-19 Spreaders. Really. (Published 2020)
We’re so used to thinking of snotty-nosed kids as germ propagators. But that’s just not how Covid-19 works.
For me, the bottom line, scientifically, is it simply makes no sense for smaller people with similar or even larger viral loads to not be able to transmit a respiratory viral disease to a larger person. Maybe the rate of transmission is lower, as some suggest, but I think the prudent thing to do is assume it happens and protect against it via masking/distancing, etc.
Here's another point worth remembering. Almost every "documented" case of transmission is inferred, since we're simply unable, ethically, to do the transmission studies that would be definitive for all of the types of possible transmissions between people (and from surfaces, aerosols, etc.). That's one thing that makes this virus so difficult to define and defend against.
Schools in other countries opened with zero issue. In NJ, youth sports and camps have been full go since July 1. Where is the spike?The post linked below has some good info in it, including a link to a previous post focused on an Israeli study that had some fairly strong evidence of viral spread from students to teachers/staff.
It is a done deal? BigTen Is Canceling Football Season Tuesday?
This thread isn't even about NJ restrictions. You're really losing it. Ha! Has any thread on here stayed on a narrow subject? That is your comeback?? That's all you got??? Bravo another response that isn't a response. What a CE clown
More recently, there have been a slew of studies and opinion pieces suggesting a wide range of transmissibility between childrend and adults. Clearly, studies have shown children with as much or more viral load as adults (1st link), but we also know children aren't impacted nearly as seriously as adults and there are less documented cases of transmission from children to adults, but a big part of that could very well be that closing down schools in so many states/countries greatly reduced the potential for such transmissions. Here are three links with somewhat opposing views on this.
Kids with COVID have more viral RNA in their airways than adults do
www.cidrap.umn.edu
Opinion | Kids Aren’t Big Covid-19 Spreaders. Really. (Published 2020)
We’re so used to thinking of snotty-nosed kids as germ propagators. But that’s just not how Covid-19 works.www.nytimes.com
For me, the bottom line, scientifically, is it simply makes no sense for smaller people with similar or even larger viral loads to not be able to transmit a respiratory viral disease to a larger person. Maybe the rate of transmission is lower, as some suggest, but I think the prudent thing to do is assume it happens and protect against it via masking/distancing, etc.
Here's another point worth remembering. Almost every "documented" case of transmission is inferred, since we're simply unable, ethically, to do the transmission studies that would be definitive for all of the types of possible transmissions between people (and from surfaces, aerosols, etc.). That's one thing that makes this virus so difficult to define and defend against.
That’s not how it works. Yet, it’s how the libs roll. Prove you didn’t rape that girl who can’t remember when you raped her. Onus is on you boys. lol
Great question. NJ had over 2000 cases/day by 3/25 with 4000-5000 tests per day (a 40-50% positivity rate which lasted for weeks), when Israel had a few hundred per day and almost the same number of tests (for a 5-10% positivity rate). What this really means is that if NJ could have been running 50,000 tests per day, we'd likely have shown at least 10,000-20,000 cases per day (not the 3000-4000 cases/day peak we saw), meaning our case count is likely undercounted by at least 3-5X during our peak. If it was 4X, that's 800K cases overall, bringing the CFR down to 1.6% vs. 0.7% in Israel, which is more reasonable, with that difference probably explainable by the combo of age and comorbidities. IMO.
Look at all the cases in schools/camps/universities in parts of the US right now. NJ's is low because we brought the cases per day down to very low numbers and have been more careful in operating these camps - same with our schools, where we'll hopefully keep case counts low. And cases in other countries are all over the place from what I've seen, so you need to be more specific.
Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19 - POLITICO
www.politico.com
Nowhere did I say lockdowns cause deaths. What a clumsy pivot by you. Mississippi still has less than half of the deaths per 100,000 than NJ, and Arizona is at almost 1/3 of NJ's number. Don't know what point you are trying to make. It is pointless trying to have a discussion with you.
- Status
Similar threads
Latest posts
-
-
-
FB Recruiting 2024 Transfer Portal Thread -- Spring Window Edition- Latest: -RUFAN4LIFE-
