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OT: Daily COVID thread - 9/12

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All the governor needs to do is plug in the new daily totals... any lackey can do that for him...so sick of the same drone over and over...” we’re following the science “ ... “we’re not out of the woods yet” ... He can easily do his pressers from his home...It’s going to make kids under age 12 wonder wtf were these leaders and adults smoking...😜
 
Trump! Bad!

Ok we got that out of the way. Now lets have some science
Reported! lol. OK. some science coming. With the new daily format, thinking of mostly trying to write shorter posts, since in-depth discussions that can often span days are likely to be much less frequent, plus I'm going to have less time soon, so why not start now. This could've been a lot longer, lol.

I'm also much less inclined to look for previous posts of mine or from others in this new format, so SIAP, but in case people don't know the clinical hold on the Astra-Zeneca/Oxford vaccine was released today - in the UK, but not elsewhere, which may mean nothing, but is a little odd, as noted by Dr. Topol a clinical expert at Scripps (see the link below).

The other troubling issue for many is that AZ did not provide any further information on the patient who experienced the myelitis and how it was concluded it was safe to resume the trial, although these things aren't always shared with the public by the independent DSMB (data safety monitoring board, which oversees such large phase III trials). Let's see how quickly other countries release the hold (FDA declined to comment). Clearly, AZ has lost at least a week and depending on whether any more serious adverse events pop up, timelines could be delayed further.

The Times article below and the Pfizer press release below also include the fact that Pfizer/BioNTech have decided to increase their phase III trial enrollment from 30k to 44K in order to reach a more comprehensive set of patient populations, including: "adolescents as young as 16 years of age and people with chronic, stable HIV (human immunodeficiency viruses), Hepatitis C, or Hepatitis B infection, as well as provide additional safety and efficacy data." Adding 14K more patients who will require an initial shot and a booster shot 3 weeks later sounds like it will make it difficult to achieve trial closure before mid/late Nov.


Lastly on the vaccine front, the senior scientific leaders at the FDA have joined the CEOs of the companies pursuing vaccines in making a related (and unprecedented) pledge promising to uphold the scientific integrity of their work and defend the agency’s independence. Eight directors of the F.D.A.’s regulatory centers and offices warned that “if the agency’s credibility is lost because of real or perceived interference, people will not rely on the agency’s safety warnings.” While they did not mention Mr. Trump or other political leaders, the context appeared clear, given the political pressure emanating from the White House.

 
Fascinating blog entry from Derek Lowe on "repurposing" existing drugs for use in the coronavirus pandemic (or other indications), based on a very insightful paper in the American Chemical Society's Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling. In the paper the author says the following on the success of repurposing such drugs, which is pretty harsh:



"𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 (𝗼𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴) 𝗰𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗴𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗖𝗢𝗩𝗜𝗗-𝟭𝟵. 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗶𝗻𝘃𝗼𝗹𝘃𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗿 𝘃𝗶𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗹𝗶𝗯𝗿𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗼𝘂𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗹𝘆 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝘀𝗮𝗳𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘀—“𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗴𝘀”. 𝗜𝗻 𝟮𝟬 𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝗻𝘆 𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗮𝘀𝗲𝘀, 𝗻𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝗵𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗵𝘆𝗽𝗼𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗴𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗹𝗮𝗯 𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗱𝗿𝘂𝗴 𝗯𝗲𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻."

Lowe says this is generally true given the strict definition involving screening old drugs to find application in a totally new indication, but he also adds some color to the discussion by stating that for COVID and some other indications that occasionally existing drugs have been repurposed for a new indication that is closely related to its original one, e.g., remdesivir is an antiviral and is now being used as an antiviral for COVID and dexamethasone is a steroid for treating inflammation and it's being used similarly for COVID.

The failed drug thalidomide (from the 1960s - birth defects in babies from an anti-nausea medicine for pregnant women), which is now a key cancer drug is another example of finding a new use for an old drug, based on understanding its side effects years later. For people who don't know the story of thalidomide and the courageous leadership of Dr. Frances Kelsey in not approving the use of this drug (based on lack of safety data) while at the FDA in 1960, it's worth a read. She's one of the reasons the FDA has become such a respected institution worldwide - and it changed, forever, how new drugs would be reviewed with much more clinical data being required than had been the case before then. And that reputation is why so many are concerned with the perceived "attacks" on it (and the CDC) by the Trump Administration.


Lowe also makes a great point that antivirals have historically worked much better in a "cocktail" where a mixture of drugs with often different modes of action have a much better chance at treating or even curing a viral disease, as we've seen with HIV and HCV. His hope is that remdesivir and maybe the new Merck antiviral about to enter phase III trials could be combined and be much more effective than either one alone. That would be nice. His final sentence, though, is really important to remember:

"𝘙𝘦𝘱𝘶𝘳𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘥𝘳𝘶𝘨 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥, 𝘣𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘩𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘣𝘪𝘰𝘭𝘰𝘨𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘩𝘶𝘮𝘢𝘯 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘳𝘥. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘤𝘶𝘵𝘴."

Maybe I just suck at short posts, lol...
 
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Fauci says he takes vitamins C and D. He says they boost immunity. Funny how he waited 8 months to mention it.


It's common medical knowledge that Vitamin D, in particular, can boost immunity, in general. The NIH published a paper in May talking about the potential for Vitamin D in COVID (inconclusive data so far, but recommending more research/trials on it). He's also talked about Vitamin D (especially Vitamin D deficiency being an immune system issue) multiple times since the pandemic started. Next thing you're going to criticize is him not recommending a balanced diet and exercise. You're one of the worst posters with regard to useless and often misleading COVID information - I think I've had to correct you more than almost anyone. Stick to posts about who died or what the Yacht guy said - they're harmless.



 
As predicted a few weeks ago in the post linked below, South Korea has controlled their latest and largest case spike (tied mostly to conservative churches) and since the original spike back in Feb/March, but, as usual it took a lot of vigilance and a well coordinated effort to test, trace and isolate aggressively, i.e., they followed our pandemic playbook. Their recent peak was around 350 cases per day, but they're now down in the 100-150 range per day. They remain one of the biggest success stories of the pandemic with just ~430 cases/1MM (the US is about 50X greater) and 7 deaths/1MM (the US is 85X greater at 600/1MM). As I've said countless times, the key to preventing deaths and serious illnesses (usually 3-4X the number of deaths) is to prevent cases in the first place.



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Just saw this series by the wall street journal, goes into the testing fiasco, and the supply issues among others
 
It's common medical knowledge that Vitamin D, in particular, can boost immunity, in general. The NIH published a paper in May talking about the potential for Vitamin D in COVID (inconclusive data so far, but recommending more research/trials on it). He's also talked about Vitamin D (especially Vitamin D deficiency being an immune system issue) multiple times since the pandemic started. Next thing you're going to criticize is him not recommending a balanced diet and exercise. You're one of the worst posters with regard to useless and often misleading COVID information - I think I've had to correct you more than almost anyone. Stick to posts about who died or what the Yacht guy said - they're harmless.



You forgot one of the worst weather thread posters.
 
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This is from an article about So. Korea’s success controlling Covid


South Korea relies not only on in-person interviews, but also instant access to extensive amounts of personal information — such as bank records, phone GPS data, and surveillance footage — not only for confirmed coronavirus patients but also suspected cases.

This access is possible because South Korean lawmakers loosened privacy laws following a 2015 outbreak of MERS, which resulted in 39 deaths here. Now, during dangerous epidemics, authorities have warrantless access to such private data.
 
It's common medical knowledge that Vitamin D, in particular, can boost immunity, in general. The NIH published a paper in May talking about the potential for Vitamin D in COVID (inconclusive data so far, but recommending more research/trials on it). He's also talked about Vitamin D (especially Vitamin D deficiency being an immune system issue) multiple times since the pandemic started. Next thing you're going to criticize is him not recommending a balanced diet and exercise. You're one of the worst posters with regard to useless and often misleading COVID information - I think I've had to correct you more than almost anyone. Stick to posts about who died or what the Yacht guy said - they're harmless.



Fauci should tell people to lose weight. Biggest driver of corona complications.
 
Kamala told us not to take a Covid vaccine when it becomes available. Waiting for further instructions.
Not what she said at all. She said, "“I will say that I would not trust Donald Trump and it would have to be a credible source of information that talks about the efficacy and the reliability of whatever he's talking about." She also said she would trust Fauci's opinion. After her comments, though, the 9 CEOs and 8 FDA lead scientists/regulators did come out and pledge that approval would be based only on the science. Despite that outcome, I disagree with her approach here and Trump's - we don't need politicians weighing in on this other than to say let's trust that the FDA will review this properly.

 
The Dakotas were at about 2X the per capita case rate of Hawaii about 10 days ago, when I last posted about this, and now are in the range of 5X the rate of Hawaii - couldn't have anything to do with Sturgis and anti-mask policies of their very conservative governors could it? Also, wondering why none of the posters who were calling out Hawaii's spike are saying anything about the Dakotas.

 
The Dakotas were at about 2X the per capita case rate of Hawaii about 10 days ago, when I last posted about this, and now are in the range of 5X the rate of Hawaii - couldn't have anything to do with Sturgis and anti-mask policies of their very conservative governors could it? Also, wondering why none of the posters who were calling out Hawaii's spike are saying anything about the Dakotas.



the libs and coronabros have been on Noems panties from way back in March...she is doing an outstanding job thus far

guess what...college students are going to spread, no one is gettng sick, keep praying for grandma
 
the libs and coronabros have been on Noems panties from way back in March...she is doing an outstanding job thus far

guess what...college students are going to spread, no one is gettng sick, keep praying for grandma

Yea, using $5MM of Covid relief for tourism commercials.
 
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