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OT: Daily Covid thread 9/21

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Nice to see New Zealand is apparently feeling confident in having reestablished control over the coronavirus there, as they're starting to relax controls in Auckland and have ended all controls in the rest of the country, as new cases have decreased to a trickle of a couple a day. NZ remains a fantastic success story with only 5 deaths/1MM, about 120X less than the US (yes, controlling a pandemic is easier on an island, but plenty of other islands with much higher numbers).

Was also impressed, again, by PM Ardern, who was seen taking a selfie with some supporters without proper distancing. She acknowledged it was a mistake and said, “I should have stepped further forward, I should have asked them to step apart from each other, and I acknowledge that." What I wouldn't give to have a responsible adult in charge of our country who can actually admit to mistakes - hey @SkilletHead2 - can you send her over here?

 
The Astra-Zeneca/Oxford vaccine trial is still on hold in the US over a week after the trial was restarted in the UK. It's not quite clear what's going on, but many think the FDA isn't happy with the answers provided on the two volunteers with transverse myelitis, a very rare spinal inflammation, which only occurs in 1-8 out of 1MM people, so hard to spot in a 30,000 person trial and more than 2 cases of it in a trial might just derail that trial. It's not too different from Guillain Barre Syndrome (see below).

Hopefully, it's just the FDA being very thorough and not something more serious, but I can understand the FDA wanting to be extraordinarily thorough having seen what happened here in 1976 with the ill-fated swine flu vaccine. After it was given to 45MM (25% of the population) people, over 300 cases and 30 deaths from GBS were seen once the population vaccinated was large enough and I'm sure we don't want to see that again.

 
Nice to see New Zealand is apparently feeling confident in having reestablished control over the coronavirus there, as they're starting to relax controls in Auckland and have ended all controls in the rest of the country, as new cases have decreased to a trickle of a couple a day. NZ remains a fantastic success story with only 5 deaths/1MM, about 120X less than the US (yes, controlling a pandemic is easier on an island, but plenty of other islands with much higher numbers).

Was also impressed, again, by PM Ardern, who was seen taking a selfie with some supporters without proper distancing. She acknowledged it was a mistake and said, “I should have stepped further forward, I should have asked them to step apart from each other, and I acknowledge that." What I wouldn't give to have a responsible adult in charge of our country who can actually admit to mistakes - hey @SkilletHead2 - can you send her over here?

Jacinda is younger than both of my kids. That just blows me away.

And super glad to be out of restrictions!
 
I heard that the usual testing for the flu requires 35 cycles. For Covid 19 I'm hearing they are doing 50 cycles. Seems they are looking for the most sensitive results. Also if you test positive for Covid and you recover or even if you had no symptoms and die 3 months later you are lumped into the dies from Covid list.
 
I heard that the usual testing for the flu requires 35 cycles. For Covid 19 I'm hearing they are doing 50 cycles. Seems they are looking for the most sensitive results. Also if you test positive for Covid and you recover or even if you had no symptoms and die 3 months later you are lumped into the dies from Covid list.
The numbers are all nothing but BS ! They have been from the beginning , are now and will be at the end !
 
I heard that the usual testing for the flu requires 35 cycles. For Covid 19 I'm hearing they are doing 50 cycles. Seems they are looking for the most sensitive results. Also if you test positive for Covid and you recover or even if you had no symptoms and die 3 months later you are lumped into the dies from Covid list.
Is that being done everywhere or just here in the US?

Why are some states doing so much worse than others here? I think it’s mainly population density and demographics of inner cities but would love if the truth would come out and we can focus on a path forward. Sadly this will not happen until long after 11/3 and it will get buried anyway.
 
Nice to see New Zealand is apparently feeling confident in having reestablished control over the coronavirus there, as they're starting to relax controls in Auckland and have ended all controls in the rest of the country, as new cases have decreased to a trickle of a couple a day. NZ remains a fantastic success story with only 5 deaths/1MM, about 120X less than the US (yes, controlling a pandemic is easier on an island, but plenty of other islands with much higher numbers).

Was also impressed, again, by PM Ardern, who was seen taking a selfie with some supporters without proper distancing. She acknowledged it was a mistake and said, “I should have stepped further forward, I should have asked them to step apart from each other, and I acknowledge that." What I wouldn't give to have a responsible adult in charge of our country who can actually admit to mistakes - hey @SkilletHead2 - can you send her over here?

It was a good post until the last sentence. You just can't help yourself.
New Zealand is an island. Pretty easy to contain a virus.
 
I heard that the usual testing for the flu requires 35 cycles. For Covid 19 I'm hearing they are doing 50 cycles. Seems they are looking for the most sensitive results. Also if you test positive for Covid and you recover or even if you had no symptoms and die 3 months later you are lumped into the dies from Covid list.

I’d rather have a more sensitive test than not. This way you can catch new infections earlier. The downside is that people who recover may still show as positive a little longer after symptoms disappear.

The death certificate part is not true.
 
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Caution on any new drug is warranted. Most health officials had the thalidomide crisis of six decade ago drummed into them during training. Think some 5K newborns here and something like twice that number in Germany were affected. It caused severe birth defects like children born without arms. If memory serves, it was a drug to reduce the rigors of pregnancy.
 
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The Astra-Zeneca/Oxford vaccine trial is still on hold in the US over a week after the trial was restarted in the UK. It's not quite clear what's going on, but many think the FDA isn't happy with the answers provided on the two volunteers with transverse myelitis, a very rare spinal inflammation, which only occurs in 1-8 out of 1MM people, so hard to spot in a 30,000 person trial and more than 2 cases of it in a trial might just derail that trial. It's not too different from Guillain Barre Syndrome (see below).

Hopefully, it's just the FDA being very thorough and not something more serious, but I can understand the FDA wanting to be extraordinarily thorough having seen what happened here in 1976 with the ill-fated swine flu vaccine. After it was given to 45MM (25% of the population) people, over 300 cases and 30 deaths from GBS were seen once the population vaccinated was large enough and I'm sure we don't want to see that again.


Even if trials do return, if there are other options, I don’t think anyone is going to want to touch this. The “we don’t know” response is not a good look.
 
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Any updates on Regeneron? I believe we were originally supposed to get trial data by the end of the summer, and then they pushed it back to end of September? Correct?
 
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Even if trials do return, if there are other options, I don’t think anyone is going to want to touch this. The “we don’t know” response is not a good look.
Who would you say is tougher to get drug approval? Us or UK?
 
The Astra-Zeneca/Oxford vaccine trial is still on hold in the US over a week after the trial was restarted in the UK. It's not quite clear what's going on, but many think the FDA isn't happy with the answers provided on the two volunteers with transverse myelitis, a very rare spinal inflammation, which only occurs in 1-8 out of 1MM people, so hard to spot in a 30,000 person trial and more than 2 cases of it in a trial might just derail that trial. It's not too different from Guillain Barre Syndrome (see below).

Hopefully, it's just the FDA being very thorough and not something more serious, but I can understand the FDA wanting to be extraordinarily thorough having seen what happened here in 1976 with the ill-fated swine flu vaccine. After it was given to 45MM (25% of the population) people, over 300 cases and 30 deaths from GBS were seen once the population vaccinated was large enough and I'm sure we don't want to see that again.

Sounds like a possible Hy's Law scenario here. Hope not!
 
Any updates on Regeneron? I believe we were originally supposed to get trial data by the end of the summer, and then they pushed it back to end of September? Correct?

Latest I’ve seen is by the end of the month. So any day now.

The other antibody treatment candidate, Eli Lilly shared results last week, but those results were sort of meh. They have several other trials going on though that may show better results.
 
An island with less than 5 million population. And people freaked out when half-hearted ideas about stopping traffic into/out of Manhattan were floated during the peak of their crisis.
DiBlasio and Cuomo were steadfast that everything was OK early in March. They fiddled while the covid fires burned, even as Washington and California had already locked down. But some people here only want to blame one person and continually rail against that one person. DiBlasio and Cuomo share a lot of the blame. To make matters worse, they cut subway service at the critical phase, resulting in more people being packed into subway cars. The subway was a major propagation point for the virus.

Excellent discussion here, which details the failings at the federal level (there were many) as well at the local NY level:


"It’s also true, however, that the cities’ leaders acted and communicated very differently in the early stages of the pandemic. Seattle’s leaders moved fast to persuade people to stay home and follow the scientists’ advice; New York’s leaders, despite having a highly esteemed public-health department, moved more slowly, offered more muddied messages, and let politicians’ voices dominate."

"New York’s mayor, Bill de Blasio, has long had a fraught relationship with the city’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which, though technically under his control, seeks to function independently and avoid political fights. “There’s always a bit of a split between the political appointees, whose jobs are to make a mayor look good, and public-health professionals, who sometimes have to make unpopular recommendations,” a former head of the Department of Health told me. “But, with the de Blasio people, that antagonism is ten times worse. They are so much more impossible to work with than other administrations.”

In early March, as Dow Constantine was asking Microsoft to close its offices and putting scientists in front of news cameras, de Blasio and New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, were giving speeches that deëmphasized the risks of the pandemic, even as the city was announcing its first official cases. De Blasio initially voiced caution, saying that “no one should take the coronavirus situation lightly,” but soon told residents to keep helping the city’s economy. “Go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” he tweeted on March 2nd—one day after the first COVID-19 diagnosis in New York. He urged people to see a movie at Lincoln Center. On the day that Seattle schools closed, de Blasio said at a press conference that “if you are not sick, if you are not in the vulnerable category, you should be going about your life.” Cuomo, meanwhile, had told reporters that “we should relax.” He said that most infected people would recover with few problems, adding, “We don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”
 
Maybe you forgot, but Richard said that other events can be discussed in the daily covid threads, including your whining about posts you don't like. Maybe the story has something to do with people in the city being sick of the lockdown restrictions.

No, you clearly forgot. Here is what he posted:

“Hey everybody we are going to try something new. Instead of having the one big COVID thread, we are going to start a new daily COVID thread every single day and lock it every night around midnight with a new one starting shortly after.

We will be a little lax on the board rules in this thread about political postings as long as it pertains to COVID. However the rest of the board rules are still in full effect, there will be no fighting, no name calling, etc. There are also no warnings in this thread, if you step out of line here or attack others for no reason, a ban will immediately follow.

With that being said, post away.“
 
No, you clearly forgot. Here is what he posted:

“Hey everybody we are going to try something new. Instead of having the one big COVID thread, we are going to start a new daily COVID thread every single day and lock it every night around midnight with a new one starting shortly after.

We will be a little lax on the board rules in this thread about political postings as long as it pertains to COVID. However the rest of the board rules are still in full effect, there will be no fighting, no name calling, etc. There are also no warnings in this thread, if you step out of line here or attack others for no reason, a ban will immediately follow.

With that being said, post away.“
Except that painting the street is covid-19 related because people are sick of the lockdown restrictions. Who made you the arbiter of whether something is or is not covid related?

Did you read the story? Or did you get immediately triggered and attack away? From the story:
"City business owners big and small have railed against elected officials’ handling of the coronavirus crisis and its resulting economic fallout."
 
Except that painting the street is covid-19 related because people are sick of the lockdown restrictions. Who made you the arbiter of whether something is or is not covid related?

Did you read the story? Or did you get immediately triggered and attack away? From the story:
"City business owners big and small have railed against elected officials’ handling of the coronavirus crisis and its resulting economic fallout."


Gee,

That sounds like it has something to do with Covid.
 
Nice to see New Zealand is apparently feeling confident in having reestablished control over the coronavirus there, as they're starting to relax controls in Auckland and have ended all controls in the rest of the country, as new cases have decreased to a trickle of a couple a day. NZ remains a fantastic success story with only 5 deaths/1MM, about 120X less than the US (yes, controlling a pandemic is easier on an island, but plenty of other islands with much higher numbers).

Was also impressed, again, by PM Ardern, who was seen taking a selfie with some supporters without proper distancing. She acknowledged it was a mistake and said, “I should have stepped further forward, I should have asked them to step apart from each other, and I acknowledge that." What I wouldn't give to have a responsible adult in charge of our country who can actually admit to mistakes - hey @SkilletHead2 - can you send her over here?

Nah, she can stay and run a small island nation of less than 5 million and a population density of 47/sq mile. That's her ceiling, But you can go move there for her, well wait maybe not since they have immigration age restrictions.😝
 
Any updates on Regeneron? I believe we were originally supposed to get trial data by the end of the summer, and then they pushed it back to end of September? Correct?
We'll see interim Regeneron results by the end of the month and I would expect them to be better than Lilly's due to their use of two different antibodies which bind to two different epitopes of the viral spike protein, which should lead to more effective deactivation of viral mutations within the body, which have been seen in early trials and were seen in the Lilly trial. Lilly also has trials going on with a combo of two mAbs, which should also be better than the single mAb candidate.
 
NEVADA became the SEVENTH State to REVERSE their prohibition on Medical Doctors prescribing HCQ to their Wuhan Virus positive case loads.

Maybe the Yale School of Med Doctor that has stated that 75,000 deaths could have been avoided without the political judgements of the 'medical' science people is true !
 
It was a good post until the last sentence. You just can't help yourself.
New Zealand is an island. Pretty easy to contain a virus.
I make one fairly mild comment about political leadership and then you make two very political posts and I'm the one that can't contain myself? Do you understand what hypocrisy is? Also, Ireland, which has the same population as NZ has over 70X the per capita death rate of NZ and the UK has over 120X the per capita death rate as NZ. Last I checked, both were islands.
 
Was also impressed, again, by PM Ardern, who was seen taking a selfie with some supporters without proper distancing. She acknowledged it was a mistake and said, “I should have stepped further forward, I should have asked them to step apart from each other, and I acknowledge that." What I wouldn't give to have a responsible adult in charge of our country who can actually admit to mistakes - hey SkilletHead2 - can you send her over here?
And you wonder why political wrangling always follows your posts? You're as much to blame as anyone else, the first response in this thread.
 
DiBlasio and Cuomo were steadfast that everything was OK early in March. They fiddled while the covid fires burned, even as Washington and California had already locked down. But some people here only want to blame one person and continually rail against that one person. DiBlasio and Cuomo share a lot of the blame. To make matters worse, they cut subway service at the critical phase, resulting in more people being packed into subway cars. The subway was a major propagation point for the virus.

Excellent discussion here, which details the failings at the federal level (there were many) as well at the local NY level:


"It’s also true, however, that the cities’ leaders acted and communicated very differently in the early stages of the pandemic. Seattle’s leaders moved fast to persuade people to stay home and follow the scientists’ advice; New York’s leaders, despite having a highly esteemed public-health department, moved more slowly, offered more muddied messages, and let politicians’ voices dominate."

"New York’s mayor, Bill de Blasio, has long had a fraught relationship with the city’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, which, though technically under his control, seeks to function independently and avoid political fights. “There’s always a bit of a split between the political appointees, whose jobs are to make a mayor look good, and public-health professionals, who sometimes have to make unpopular recommendations,” a former head of the Department of Health told me. “But, with the de Blasio people, that antagonism is ten times worse. They are so much more impossible to work with than other administrations.”

In early March, as Dow Constantine was asking Microsoft to close its offices and putting scientists in front of news cameras, de Blasio and New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, were giving speeches that deëmphasized the risks of the pandemic, even as the city was announcing its first official cases. De Blasio initially voiced caution, saying that “no one should take the coronavirus situation lightly,” but soon told residents to keep helping the city’s economy. “Go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus,” he tweeted on March 2nd—one day after the first COVID-19 diagnosis in New York. He urged people to see a movie at Lincoln Center. On the day that Seattle schools closed, de Blasio said at a press conference that “if you are not sick, if you are not in the vulnerable category, you should be going about your life.” Cuomo, meanwhile, had told reporters that “we should relax.” He said that most infected people would recover with few problems, adding, “We don’t even think it’s going to be as bad as it was in other countries.”
Same story with SanFran--they followed their chicomvirus models. Cuomo and DiBlowsio did not.

By March 14, London Breed, the mayor of San Francisco, had seen enough. For weeks, she and her health officials had looked at data showing the evolving threat of COVID-19. In response, she’d issued a series of orders limiting the size of public gatherings, each one feeling more arbitrary than the last. She’d been persuaded that her city’s considerable and highly regarded health care system might be insufficient for the looming onslaught of infection and death.


https://www.propublica.org/article/...y-10-times-the-number-of-deaths-as-california



So Cuomo and diBlows did not follow chicomvirus infection models and did not follow the NY "pandemic playbook". Total disaster. For NYC/NY/NJ/CT residents.
 
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