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OT: Daily Covid thread 9/23

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Who the hell said that? But maybe we should look at how so many other countries have done so much better, so we could learn something, although we already know why we've done so poorly. And not clicking on the Times is just lame, especially since that link is to a story on Thailand, which is pretty damn informative.
See my post above. Comparing the the United States to other countries is mostly useless. Maybe if someone took a look at the EU as a whole vs. the US, that might be a worthwhile comparison. And what Robert G said above explains a lot. I explained myself above--just not a believer in continually railing against our own country, and I was the same way on the previous administrations--there are always things that we as individuals dislike or do not go well, but we learn, evolve and hopefully find ways to improve.
 
You keep trying to sound scientific, but the far right talking points you get from your hoax sources are not well thought out, as usual. The testing cycles are not "inflating" anything - they're simply detecting many more asymptomatic/presymptomatic infections, which is only "bad" if those folks then don't quarantine - and it has no impact on deaths, since if someone with a COVID infection gets sick enough to go to the hospital and then dies, it was certainly from COVID - you know doctors do know what they're doing. Also, as we've covered COVID deaths are likely seriously undercounted given that our excess deaths (vs. what we'd have in a normal year) are now around 250K during COVID vs. the 200K counted as COVID deaths - it's very likely that many to most of those extra are due to COVID.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
Nashville !
 
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You keep trying to sound scientific, but the far right talking points you get from your hoax sources are not well thought out, as usual. The testing cycles are not "inflating" anything - they're simply detecting many more asymptomatic/presymptomatic infections, which is only "bad" if those folks then don't quarantine - and it has no impact on deaths, since if someone with a COVID infection gets sick enough to go to the hospital and then dies, it was certainly from COVID - you know doctors do know what they're doing. Also, as we've covered COVID deaths are likely seriously undercounted given that our excess deaths (vs. what we'd have in a normal year) are now around 250K during COVID vs. the 200K counted as COVID deaths - it's very likely that many to most of those extra are due to COVID.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
Thanks for the link that cites the number of people that died while infected with COVID. Hoping to see more exact metrics regarding deaths caused by soon.
 
Ehh, let's not go there.
The US is unique in a lot of ways with 50 plus states/territories with very disparate geography, climate, population density and temperament and tolerance for government interference into their lives. In more sophisticated/educated cities, people may be more inclined to abide by government orders. But could never imagine US citizens being totally obedient to government orders in the way they are in Taiwan. Hypothetically, even if the President issued a nationwide mask order early on, there would be two types of people who would ignore the order--(1) those who will not do what the government tells them to do if it infringes on their "personal freedom; (2) those who hate our President and would not listen to anything he said, even if that included that he had a cure for cancer and it was free.

Face it. We are not Sweden. We are not New Zealand or Taiwan or South Korea. And thank goodness we are not a third world country in Africa. We are still the greatest nation in the world, regardless of our covid numbers. We will persevere, find our way through this and one day come out as an even better nation. That's my mindset, and it will never be shaken, regardless of the narrative of people who hate the current ruling party/administration and the noise from the biased news outlets on both sides.
Lock my wife , son and I in at number 1 !
 
I think much of the reason the number of deaths/ 1 mm people is low in come of these countries is less testing and under reporting. For example, I don’t for one second believe the data on deaths from Russia given the overall number of cases they reported. As for mutations, that is still a huge question mark as there have been mutant strains identified that are more infectious than the one that was circulating and not less.
Or maybe Russia has less people that are 65+ with 2.6 comorbidities.
 
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I said most of these countries likely had much less travel seeding outbreaks, but epidemiologically, all that would do, without interventions, is delay the massive outbreaks, not stop them - look at South America, where many countries didn't start having major outbreaks until well into April. South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam (its neighbor), at least, all have a lot of travel from China, so I doubt that's a differentiating factor (per capita), whereas it would be for Africa and all of those Asian countries have very high mask compliance (over 90%, which is likely the biggest reason for their low numbers).

Also, remember that many of these countries in Africa actually have experience with dreaded diseases like Ebola, so they have some systems in place to monitor for disease and death. And for all of you folks saying that African countries are somehow incapable of counting their dead, then how did we have counts of 2544, 4810, and 3986 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, due to Ebola a few years ago?

Have they suddenly forgotten how to count deaths or did they maybe actually have effecive interventions to arrive at 65, 72, and 82 deaths from COVID so far? Sure, their testing may not be as thorough as many first world countries, but I think they can count deaths and all three of these countries are at <20 deaths/1MM, like most of their neighbors in sub-Saharan Africa. I'm sure a young average age and less mobility have helped, but many of these countries are pretty densely populated and I simply find it hard to believe so many countries could be incapable of counting their dead as others (not you) have posted.

Also, there is zero evidence that the virus has mutated into a less deadly form. Zero.

The article I linked above stated that the mortality counting system was hampered, at least in Keyna:

"Uyoga cautions that the pandemic has hamstrung Kenya’s mortality surveillance system, however, as fieldworkers have been unable to move around."

Also antibody studies have shown that Kenya had the same rate of infections as Spain at it's height but many less deaths, might be because of average age and they haven't counted everybody.
 
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Or maybe Russia has less people that are 65+ with 2.6 comorbidities.

Quick check of "major" countries plus Vietnam because they are so low.

Country- obesity rate (covid deaths/million)
United States- 36.20 (597.07)
United Kingdom - 27.8 (635.51)
Russia- 23.1 (129.59)
Germany - 22.30 (113.01)
France- 21.60 (460.71) ??
Japan- 4.3 (11.57)
Vietnam- 2.1 (0.37)

Other than France, does anyone notice a trend?? At least Boris Johnson is trying to take the lead in addressing the obesity crisis in his country. Meanwhile, our government keeps pushing the garbage myplate nonsense.

Which countries have some of the lowest obesity rates and deaths per million? African countries!


 
Lock my wife , son and I in at number 1 !

As I follow-up to this point and because you indicate that wearing masks is a no-no and infringes on your freedom.........I asked you this in the other thread but you did not respond......

Does your son wear a mask to school or when required? Do you or your family wear a mask in stores when shopping? Both of these are mainly the result of government short term regulations.
 
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Get over yourself. You don't matter that much.
Duck-Soup.gif
 
Speaking of science, if you didn't watch the Senate hearing today, I highly suggest people do. Virtually every political angle we have heard from not taking the vaccine due to fast tracking and cutting corners (yes, people running for President actually said this) to bogus lies about investments fueling some companies getting preferential treatment was completely debunked. In embarrassing fashion I might add.

Must. Watch.
 
birth defect infant death blamed CoVid



Also, Sweden is healthier than the USA. That could account for the difference. Maybe its fewer fatties in Africa that's the difference there too. Its not, in majority, mismanagement of CoVId.. its having a more susceptible population with all the disadvantages necessary for fast spread.

While sweden's median age is a bit older than the USA (41 to 38) , the life expectancy is longer too.. so its about even, imho. Africa has a very young median age by comparison.. probably a lot of people who could have been killed by CoVid are already dead.

If CoVid is not less deadly, why is Sweden's rate so low now? They made few if any changes to deal with CoVid.. so why did their rate drop? CoVid killed off everyone susceptible already?

_113615736_covid19chartsweden.png
 
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You keep trying to sound scientific, but the far right talking points you get from your hoax sources are not well thought out, as usual. The testing cycles are not "inflating" anything - they're simply detecting many more asymptomatic/presymptomatic infections, which is only "bad" if those folks then don't quarantine - and it has no impact on deaths, since if someone with a COVID infection gets sick enough to go to the hospital and then dies, it was certainly from COVID - you know doctors do know what they're doing. Also, as we've covered COVID deaths are likely seriously undercounted given that our excess deaths (vs. what we'd have in a normal year) are now around 250K during COVID vs. the 200K counted as COVID deaths - it's very likely that many to most of those extra are due to COVID.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
LOL my "hoax" source was a NYT article...

So to be clear the doctors know what they're doing when counting covid deaths but not when prescribing HCQ. Got it.

And what do you mean about a "normal year" for deaths? Are you adjusting for our aging population? Spikes in suicides and overdose deaths? I can understand chicomvirus unfortunately "accelerating" deaths in our LTC population--especially in NY/NJ/CT/PA etc.
 
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Or maybe Russia has less people that are 65+ with 2.6 comorbidities.

Or maybe Russia just isn't up front about the number of deaths in their country. The rates are per million persons so that is normalized and has nothign to do with their overall population. They have a significant portion of their population (like ours) who are overweight/obese but their life expectancy is quite a bit lower than the US:

Russia is 65 years for men and 76 for women
US is 76 for men and 81 for women

so would argue that they have more comorbities than most based on that data alone.
 
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Quick check of "major" countries plus Vietnam because they are so low.

Country- obesity rate (covid deaths/million)
United States- 36.20 (597.07)
United Kingdom - 27.8 (635.51)
Russia- 23.1 (129.59)
Germany - 22.30 (113.01)
France- 21.60 (460.71) ??
Japan- 4.3 (11.57)
Vietnam- 2.1 (0.37)

Other than France, does anyone notice a trend?? At least Boris Johnson is trying to take the lead in addressing the obesity crisis in his country. Meanwhile, our government keeps pushing the garbage myplate nonsense.

Which countries have some of the lowest obesity rates and deaths per million? African countries!


+1
Good post. Obesity is the driver of serious cases and death.
 
+1
Good post. Obesity is the driver of serious cases and death.
But is any politician courageous enough to state that and do something about it, and encourage people to take some personal responsibility in living healthier lives? Few politicians will touch that. Whatever issues he has otherwise, at least Boris Johnson has taken a stand.
 
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I said most of these countries likely had much less travel seeding outbreaks, but epidemiologically, all that would do, without interventions, is delay the massive outbreaks, not stop them - look at South America, where many countries didn't start having major outbreaks until well into April. South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam (its neighbor), at least, all have a lot of travel from China, so I doubt that's a differentiating factor (per capita), whereas it would be for Africa and all of those Asian countries have very high mask compliance (over 90%, which is likely the biggest reason for their low numbers).

Also, remember that many of these countries in Africa actually have experience with dreaded diseases like Ebola, so they have some systems in place to monitor for disease and death. And for all of you folks saying that African countries are somehow incapable of counting their dead, then how did we have counts of 2544, 4810, and 3986 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, due to Ebola a few years ago?

Have they suddenly forgotten how to count deaths or did they maybe actually have effecive interventions to arrive at 65, 72, and 82 deaths from COVID so far? Sure, their testing may not be as thorough as many first world countries, but I think they can count deaths and all three of these countries are at <20 deaths/1MM, like most of their neighbors in sub-Saharan Africa. I'm sure a young average age and less mobility have helped, but many of these countries are pretty densely populated and I simply find it hard to believe so many countries could be incapable of counting their dead as others (not you) have posted.

Also, there is zero evidence that the virus has mutated into a less deadly form. Zero.
We've debated to death (no pun intended) the obvious differences and invalid comparisons of the US to SoKo and other tiny S/E Asian nations that were on the WHO's early regional pandemic declaration list. You're not convincing anyone outside of your CoronaBros Club. Give it a rest. Your take on the African situation is pure speculation at this point.
 
+1
Good post. Obesity is the driver of serious cases and death.

Certainly the cause of many issues here. American's just live too good. Every meal for some of these fatties is like their last one. And it's causing serious health issues. I am all for people living how they want, but don't complain when your lifestyle shortens your life.
 
We've debated to death (no pun intended) the obvious differences and invalid comparisons of the US to SoKo and other tiny S/E Asian nations that were on the WHO's early regional pandemic declaration list. You're not convincing anyone outside of your CoronaBros Club. Give it a rest. Your take on the African situation is pure speculation at this point.

Hammer meet nail!
 
We've debated to death (no pun intended) the obvious differences and invalid comparisons of the US to SoKo and other tiny S/E Asian nations that were on the WHO's early regional pandemic declaration list. You're not convincing anyone outside of your CoronaBros Club. Give it a rest. Your take on the African situation is pure speculation at this point.
United States obesity rate- 36.2
Nigeria obesity rate- 8.9
Kenya obesity rate - 7.1
Uganda obesity rate- 5.3
South Korea obesity rate- 4.70

Wow-it even afflicts young people!
This has to be somebody's fault:

"Since the pandemic began, dozens of studies have reported that many of the sickest COVID-19 patients have been people with obesity. In recent weeks, that link has come into sharper focus as large new population studies have cemented the association and demonstrated that even people who are merely overweight are at higher risk."

"an international team of researchers pooled data from scores of peer-reviewed papers capturing 399,000 patients. They found that people with obesity who contracted SARS-CoV-2 were 113% more likely than people of healthy weight to land in the hospital, 74% more likely to be admitted to an ICU, and 48% more likely to die."
 
Or maybe Russia just isn't up front about the number of deaths in their country. The rates are per million persons so that is normalized and has nothign to do with their overall population. They have a significant portion of their population (like ours) who are overweight/obese but their life expectancy is quite a bit lower than the US:

Russia is 65 years for men and 76 for women
US is 76 for men and 81 for women

so would argue that they have more comorbities than most based on that data alone.
my first inclination is not to believe them. But your last sentence agrees with what I also said. They have less old people than we do. If men only live to 65 on average then none are left for covid to ravage.
 
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United States obesity rate- 36.2
Nigeria obesity rate- 8.9
Kenya obesity rate - 7.1
Uganda obesity rate- 5.3
South Korea obesity rate- 4.70

Wow-it even afflicts young people!
This has to be somebody's fault:

"Since the pandemic began, dozens of studies have reported that many of the sickest COVID-19 patients have been people with obesity. In recent weeks, that link has come into sharper focus as large new population studies have cemented the association and demonstrated that even people who are merely overweight are at higher risk."

"an international team of researchers pooled data from scores of peer-reviewed papers capturing 399,000 patients. They found that people with obesity who contracted SARS-CoV-2 were 113% more likely than people of healthy weight to land in the hospital, 74% more likely to be admitted to an ICU, and 48% more likely to die."
One more scary quote from the science article:

"Beck’s work suggests the same thing happens in people: She found that people with obesity vaccinated against flu had twice the risk of catching it as vaccinated, healthy weight people. That means trials of vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 need to include people with obesity, she says, because “coronavirus vaccines may be less effective in those people.”"
 
my first inclination is not to believe them. But your last sentence agrees with what I also said. They have less old people than we do. If men only live to 65 on average then none are left for covid to ravage.

Yes, they do have less old people....but likely because they are dying younger. The life expectancy there is quite a bit lower....probably not fully attributable to obesity but other conditions as well and/or healthcare disparities. What's interesting with regard to a lot of this data is that it's still coming in real time so it will be interesting to see how it ultimately reports out.

One thing about the African and SE Asian countries is that there are far more endemic diseases there that may help to prime the immune system and may help generate a better immune response to new viruses like SARS-COv2. There is a lot of evidence about the role of the immune system in those situations, even with regard to autoimmunity. One interesting area is type I diabetes. The incidence is much higher in developed countries than 3rd world countries and keep in mind that type I diabetes is autoimmune and has nothing to do with obesity. It's autoreactive T-cells destroying insulin producing beta cells (did my post-doc research in this area). One school of thought has always been that in the 3rd world countries with more exposure to certain endemic diseases those autoreactive T-cells were suppressed and selected against as opposed to developed countries with less exposure at a young age or even prenataly to those diseases/pathogens.
 

Quick check of "major" countries plus Vietnam because they are so low.

Country- obesity rate (covid deaths/million)
United States- 36.20 (597.07)
United Kingdom - 27.8 (635.51)
Russia- 23.1 (129.59)
Germany - 22.30 (113.01)
France- 21.60 (460.71) ??
Japan- 4.3 (11.57)
Vietnam- 2.1 (0.37)

Other than France, does anyone notice a trend?? At least Boris Johnson is trying to take the lead in addressing the obesity crisis in his country. Meanwhile, our government keeps pushing the garbage myplate nonsense.

Which countries have some of the lowest obesity rates and deaths per million? African countries!




A lot of correlation going on here
 
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But is any politician courageous enough to state that and do something about it, and encourage people to take some personal responsibility in living healthier lives? Few politicians will touch that. Whatever issues he has otherwise, at least Boris Johnson has taken a stand.
Over 40% of the US pop is obese. Do any pols have the backbone to risk alienating that many voters? Not sure, but I haven't seen it yet.
 
One more scary quote from the science article:

"Beck’s work suggests the same thing happens in people: She found that people with obesity vaccinated against flu had twice the risk of catching it as vaccinated, healthy weight people. That means trials of vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 need to include people with obesity, she says, because “coronavirus vaccines may be less effective in those people.”"
Obesity is a risk factor for almost all health conditions.
 
I called out obesity and diabetes in May. We also probably over reported in NY and N.J. I’ve heard stories that indicate this but don’t want to get into that whole thing. Fact is less than. 10k people died of Covid alone in the US. People who were on their deathbed with Dementia are covid deaths. Other countries are more than likely not reporting those as covid deaths because they want to look good and also they are right IMO. Segments of our country want this to look bad and that was made apparent back in March or maybe April.
 
Looks like the first antiviral via pill has passed a Phase 3 trial, and it’s from an existing flu drug. It’s already approved in Japan and in some other countries. It was a Japanese trial, so we’ll have to see how America reacts.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...ent-of-covid-patients-in-japan-301136702.html

“Patients who received Avigan® recovered from COVID-19 symptoms 2.8 days earlier, on average, compared with the control group. Analysis showed patients had a statistically significant higher probability to recover when administered Avigan® compared with the patients not receiving the drug.”

Edit: Another couple articles on it. Appears there are some concerns around birth defects it caused in animals. But it’s already approved in many countries, so we’ll see. The second article indicates that they are moving ahead with approvals.


 
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J&J on the final stage of their Covid-19 vaccine:


While J&J is a little behind the others, they only have 1 shot. This means that they don’t have to wait 21-28 days like the other vaccine candidates, and almost puts them even with Moderna/Pfizer/AZ.
 
Yes, they do have less old people....but likely because they are dying younger. The life expectancy there is quite a bit lower....probably not fully attributable to obesity but other conditions as well and/or healthcare disparities. What's interesting with regard to a lot of this data is that it's still coming in real time so it will be interesting to see how it ultimately reports out.

One thing about the African and SE Asian countries is that there are far more endemic diseases there that may help to prime the immune system and may help generate a better immune response to new viruses like SARS-COv2. There is a lot of evidence about the role of the immune system in those situations, even with regard to autoimmunity. One interesting area is type I diabetes. The incidence is much higher in developed countries than 3rd world countries and keep in mind that type I diabetes is autoimmune and has nothing to do with obesity. It's autoreactive T-cells destroying insulin producing beta cells (did my post-doc research in this area). One school of thought has always been that in the 3rd world countries with more exposure to certain endemic diseases those autoreactive T-cells were suppressed and selected against as opposed to developed countries with less exposure at a young age or even prenataly to those diseases/pathogens.
Curious-- what is the incidence of T1D in the US vs. 3rd world countries?
 
This just in.. President Trump did not solve America's obesity rate before CoVid arrived from China. IMPEACH HIM!
But he is not setting a good example, is he? Personally, have not eaten at a McDonalds or Burger King in over 10 years, probably over 15 or 20 years. Maybe Pres. Trump is one of those people who can eat whatever they want. Interesting thing about him is that he does not drink alcohol.

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