ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Daily Covid thread 9/23

Status
Not open for further replies.
Instead of looking at Sweden as a "success story," for reasons I still can't fathom given their very high level of 580 deaths/1MM (just behind the US), I wonder why most people aren't looking at the countries of Southeast Asia or Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) as success stories more, especially given the much greater level of poverty in most of these countries, which many experts thought would make these countries do much worse than the wealthier nations of the world. I've talked about these areas a few times before, but thought I'd revisit them.

Collectively, these countries have kicked ass compared to the US, much of Europe and most of South America. Africa has 1.3 billion people and 34K deaths (26 deaths/1MM); the US has 330MM people and 200K deaths (606 deaths/1MM, so the US is about 23X greater per capita), while the EU/UK (186K deaths/510MM or about 365 deaths/1MM) is a bit better than the US and South America (~570 deaths/1MM) is barely better than the US. And the SE Asian countries of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia, collectively have <2 deaths/1MM (for 275MM people), which is off the charts good.

Most of these countries certainly had less international travel than the "first world" countries (except Thailand), so they had less "seeds" for case growth, but all of them took very proactive steps early on to prevent cases/growth, as outlined in the links below. Many also think that much of the reason for ignoring these success stories is rooted in hubris and arrogance gone overboard in the world's wealthy nations almost all of whom have failed miserably compared to these countries.


https://apnews.com/0a31db50d816a463a6a29bf86463aaa9
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com...st-asia-s-surprising-success-against-covid-19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-photos.html
 
Last edited:
WaPo is reporting that the FDA is poised to issue much stricter guidance for when a COVID vaccine might obtain an Emergency Use Authorization (for use prior to formal approval), which would make it nearly impossible to get an EUA before probably late November (a good thing IMO, to ensure safety and remove the potential for politics to play any role).

However, on Sunday Secy Azar from the HHS issued a memo essentially saying that all FDA decisions had to be approved by HHS, which is a huge power grab and if used in the COVID vaccine situation to "force" the FDA to do something it doesn't want to do or prevent it from issuing the guidance above, well then we have a problem. May we live in interesting times...


 
Instead of looking at Sweden as a "success story," for reasons I still can't fathom given their very high level of 580 deaths/1MM (just behind the US), I wonder why most people aren't looking at the countries of Southeast Asia or Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) as success stories more, especially given the much greater level of poverty in most of these countries, which many experts thought would make these countries do much worse than the wealthier nations of the world. I've talked about these areas a few times before, but thought I'd revisit them.

Collectively, these countries have kicked ass compared to the US, much of Europe and most of South America. Africa has 1.3 billion people and 34K deaths (26 deaths/1MM); the US has 330MM people and 200K deaths (606 deaths/1MM, so the US is about 23X greater per capita), while the EU/UK (186K deaths/510MM or about 365 deaths/1MM) is a bit better than the US and South America (~570 deaths/1MM) is barely better than the US. And the SE Asian countries of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia, collectively have <2 deaths/1MM (for 275MM people), which is off the charts good.

Most of these countries certainly had less international travel than the "first world" countries (except Thailand), so they had less "seeds" for case growth, but all of them took very proactive steps early on to prevent cases/growth, as outlined in the links below. Many also think that much of the reason for ignoring these success stories is rooted in hubris and arrogance gone overboard in the world's wealthy nations almost all of whom have failed miserably compared to these countries.


https://apnews.com/0a31db50d816a463a6a29bf86463aaa9
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com...st-asia-s-surprising-success-against-covid-19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-photos.html
How many people are they testing?
How are they counting their dead?
 
Taiwan, South Korea, New Zealand, etc. get a lot of attention, which is why I didn't include them - nobody talks much about Vietnam, Cambodia or Rwanda, though...
Don't know about Rwanda, but the other 2 pretty much are dictatorships so what gets reported is what the leaders want their people to hear. You might as well list North Korea alongside them.
How many people are they testing?
How are they counting their dead?
Exactly. There are a lot of countries around the world whose numbers I believe are highly inaccurate. Hell, the epicenter of this pandemic is reporting like it barely effected them.
 
Instead of looking at Sweden as a "success story," for reasons I still can't fathom given their very high level of 580 deaths/1MM (just behind the US), I wonder why most people aren't looking at the countries of Southeast Asia or Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) as success stories ...

No deaths on the space station from CoVid either. What a success!

Did China target sub-Saharan Africa?

3/4s of a million visitors from China came here from December to February during the outbreak. China could have prevented ALL of THEM from leaving China.

How many did South Korea get during that time? Taiwan? Vietnam? Sub-Saharan Africa?

The USA itself has a very mobile population who travel widely... as does western Europe.

That alone counts for sub-Saharan Africa's "success". Why would you try to fashion an argument around how sub-Saharan Africa did?

Also.. the virus has mutated since then. It is less deadly now. The later that countries were infected their results should be better.
 
I understand NJ has seen a spike in cases over the past week, especially in Monmouth and Ocean Co's. Makes sense this would happen two weeks after Labor Day as the shore was packed. Hopefully this was just a blip and we go back to doing very well with case counts.
 
I understand NJ has seen a spike in cases over the past week, especially in Monmouth and Ocean Co's. Makes sense this would happen two weeks after Labor Day as the shore was packed. Hopefully this was just a blip and we go back to doing very well with case counts.
they had like 100 cases and 1 death yesterday. I really hope their increased cases doesn't become the new battle cry for the keep everyone home crowd.
 
they had like 100 cases and 1 death yesterday. I really hope their increased cases doesn't become the new battle cry for the keep everyone home crowd.

It seems to have been localized, not spread throughout the state although who knows how many went home with it. Reporting is based on home town sooooooo.

No expert but I'd think the concern now is schools, not beaches.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Greg2020
It seems to have been localized, not spread throughout the state although who knows how many went home with it. Reporting is based on home town sooooooo.

No expert but I'd think the concern now is schools, not beaches.
sports fields have become the new beaches. they have become so much more lax over the last few weeks. Baseball umps are now back behind the catcher, dugouts and bleachers are open, and youth football is in full swing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jreinsdorf
I think much of the reason the number of deaths/ 1 mm people is low in come of these countries is less testing and under reporting. For example, I don’t for one second believe the data on deaths from Russia given the overall number of cases they reported. As for mutations, that is still a huge question mark as there have been mutant strains identified that are more infectious than the one that was circulating and not less.
 
Instead of looking at Sweden as a "success story," for reasons I still can't fathom given their very high level of 580 deaths/1MM (just behind the US), I wonder why most people aren't looking at the countries of Southeast Asia or Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) as success stories more, especially given the much greater level of poverty in most of these countries, which many experts thought would make these countries do much worse than the wealthier nations of the world. I've talked about these areas a few times before, but thought I'd revisit them.

Collectively, these countries have kicked ass compared to the US, much of Europe and most of South America. Africa has 1.3 billion people and 34K deaths (26 deaths/1MM); the US has 330MM people and 200K deaths (606 deaths/1MM, so the US is about 23X greater per capita), while the EU/UK (186K deaths/510MM or about 365 deaths/1MM) is a bit better than the US and South America (~570 deaths/1MM) is barely better than the US. And the SE Asian countries of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia, collectively have <2 deaths/1MM (for 275MM people), which is off the charts good.

Most of these countries certainly had less international travel than the "first world" countries (except Thailand), so they had less "seeds" for case growth, but all of them took very proactive steps early on to prevent cases/growth, as outlined in the links below. Many also think that much of the reason for ignoring these success stories is rooted in hubris and arrogance gone overboard in the world's wealthy nations almost all of whom have failed miserably compared to these countries.


https://apnews.com/0a31db50d816a463a6a29bf86463aaa9
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com...st-asia-s-surprising-success-against-covid-19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-photos.html
You’ve obviously never been to Africa. You really believe some of those countries are capable of providing accurate data?
 
sports fields have become the new beaches. they have become so much more lax over the last few weeks. Baseball umps are now back behind the catcher, dugouts and bleachers are open, and youth football is in full swing.
Summer lacrosse always was. Didn’t hear of many cases at all.
 
Instead of looking at Sweden as a "success story," for reasons I still can't fathom given their very high level of 580 deaths/1MM (just behind the US), I wonder why most people aren't looking at the countries of Southeast Asia or Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) as success stories more, especially given the much greater level of poverty in most of these countries, which many experts thought would make these countries do much worse than the wealthier nations of the world. I've talked about these areas a few times before, but thought I'd revisit them.

Collectively, these countries have kicked ass compared to the US, much of Europe and most of South America. Africa has 1.3 billion people and 34K deaths (26 deaths/1MM); the US has 330MM people and 200K deaths (606 deaths/1MM, so the US is about 23X greater per capita), while the EU/UK (186K deaths/510MM or about 365 deaths/1MM) is a bit better than the US and South America (~570 deaths/1MM) is barely better than the US. And the SE Asian countries of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia, collectively have <2 deaths/1MM (for 275MM people), which is off the charts good.

Most of these countries certainly had less international travel than the "first world" countries (except Thailand), so they had less "seeds" for case growth, but all of them took very proactive steps early on to prevent cases/growth, as outlined in the links below. Many also think that much of the reason for ignoring these success stories is rooted in hubris and arrogance gone overboard in the world's wealthy nations almost all of whom have failed miserably compared to these countries.


https://apnews.com/0a31db50d816a463a6a29bf86463aaa9
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com...st-asia-s-surprising-success-against-covid-19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-photos.html


After testing more than 3000 blood donors, Uyoga and colleagues estimated in a preprint last month that one in 20 Kenyans aged 15 to 64—or 1.6 million people—has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2, an indication of past infection. That would put Kenya on a par with Spain in mid-May when that country was descending from its coronavirus peak and had 27,000 official COVID-19 deaths. Kenya’s official toll stood at 100 when the study ended. And Kenya’s hospitals are not reporting huge numbers of people with COVID-19 symptoms......

Other antibody studies in Africa have yielded similarly surprising findings. From a survey of 500 asymptomatic health care workers in Blantyre, Malawi, immunologist Kondwani Jambo of the Malawi–Liverpool Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Programme and colleagues concluded that up to 12.3% of them had been exposed to the coronavirus. Based on those findings and mortality ratios for COVID-19 elsewhere, they estimated that the reported number of deaths in Blantyre at the time, 17, was eight times lower than expected.......

So what explains the huge gap between antibody data on the one hand and the official case and death counts on the other? Part of the reason may be that Africa misses many more cases than other parts of the world because it has far less testing capacity. Kenya tests about one in every 10,000 inhabitants daily for active SARS-CoV-2 infections, one-tenth of the rate in Spain or Canada. Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, tests one out of every 50,000 people per day. Even many people who die from COVID-19 may not get a proper diagnosis.

But in that case, you would still expect an overall rise in mortality, which Kenya has not seen, says pathologist Anne Barasa of the University of Nairobi who did not participate in the country’s coronavirus antibody study. (In South Africa, by contrast, the number of excess natural deaths reported between 6 May and 28 July exceeded its official COVID-19 death toll by a factor of four to one.) Uyoga cautions that the pandemic has hamstrung Kenya’s mortality surveillance system, however, as fieldworkers have been unable to move around.

Marina Pollán of the Carlos III Health Institute in Madrid, who led Spain’s antibody survey, says Africa’s youthfulness may protect it. Spain’s median age is 45; in Kenya and Malawi, it’s 20 and 18, respectively. Young people around the world are far less likely to get severely ill or die from the virus. And the population in Kenya’s cities, where the pandemic first took hold, skews even younger than the country as a whole, says Thumbi Mwangi, an epidemiologist at the University of Nairobi. The number of severe and fatal cases “may go higher when the disease has moved to the rural areas where we have populations with advanced age,” he says.
 
@RU848789 I liked your post / article on the immune response triggered by the spike protein linked to the nanoparticles.

The nanoparticle aspect is new but the concept of using a carrier to augment immune response isn't. Best example, and I worked on it so I'll tout it, is Prevnar. The bacteria's polysaccharides alone don't trigger a strong immune response (much to MRKs and Pneumovax 23 chagrin), but linking them to a diphtheria protein gets much stronger response. Quite literally anyone who has children have gotten this shot.

Well see what happens with the vaccine studies but encouraging to see research ongoing into potential next generation vaccines.
 
It seems to have been localized, not spread throughout the state although who knows how many went home with it. Reporting is based on home town sooooooo.

No expert but I'd think the concern now is schools, not beaches.
Keep the tides real high to keep the beach people safe from the invaders from the north and the east!
 
  • Like
Reactions: knightfan7
No deaths on the space station from CoVid either. What a success!

Did China target sub-Saharan Africa?

3/4s of a million visitors from China came here from December to February during the outbreak. China could have prevented ALL of THEM from leaving China.

How many did South Korea get during that time? Taiwan? Vietnam? Sub-Saharan Africa?

The USA itself has a very mobile population who travel widely... as does western Europe.

That alone counts for sub-Saharan Africa's "success". Why would you try to fashion an argument around how sub-Saharan Africa did?

Also.. the virus has mutated since then. It is less deadly now. The later that countries were infected their results should be better.
What are you implying, that Africa's not a robust tourist destination around the holidays with all the peace and tranquility that abounds on this breezy comfortable continent? 😉
 
You’ve obviously never been to Africa. You really believe some of those countries are capable of providing accurate data?
Will not click on the link to NY Times, but perhaps this is their new narrative? US and other "first world countries" should strive to become third world countries to solve covid problems.
 
Last edited:
I think much of the reason the number of deaths/ 1 mm people is low in come of these countries is less testing and under reporting. For example, I don’t for one second believe the data on deaths from Russia given the overall number of cases they reported. As for mutations, that is still a huge question mark as there have been mutant strains identified that are more infectious than the one that was circulating and not less.
Also the U.S. high cycle testing is inflating our chicomvirus numbers too. But it's not what all our CoronoBros want to acknowledge or certain media want to report.
 
Will not click on the link to NY Times, but perhaps this is their new narrative? US and other "first world countries" should strive to become third world countries to solve problems.
Pretty sure that would happen under the Green New D...oops...need to hold that thought--might get me reported to the Mods.
 
  • Like
Reactions: goru1869
Pretty sure that would happen under the Green New D...oops...need to hold that thought--might get me reported to the Mods.
Ehh, let's not go there.
The US is unique in a lot of ways with 50 plus states/territories with very disparate geography, climate, population density and temperament and tolerance for government interference into their lives. In more sophisticated/educated cities, people may be more inclined to abide by government orders. But could never imagine US citizens being totally obedient to government orders in the way they are in Taiwan. Hypothetically, even if the President issued a nationwide mask order early on, there would be two types of people who would ignore the order--(1) those who will not do what the government tells them to do if it infringes on their "personal freedom; (2) those who hate our President and would not listen to anything he said, even if that included that he had a cure for cancer and it was free.

Face it. We are not Sweden. We are not New Zealand or Taiwan or South Korea. And thank goodness we are not a third world country in Africa. We are still the greatest nation in the world, regardless of our covid numbers. We will persevere, find our way through this and one day come out as an even better nation. That's my mindset, and it will never be shaken, regardless of the narrative of people who hate the current ruling party/administration and the noise from the biased news outlets on both sides.
 
Instead of looking at Sweden as a "success story," for reasons I still can't fathom given their very high level of 580 deaths/1MM (just behind the US), I wonder why most people aren't looking at the countries of Southeast Asia or Africa (especially sub-Saharan Africa) as success stories more, especially given the much greater level of poverty in most of these countries, which many experts thought would make these countries do much worse than the wealthier nations of the world. I've talked about these areas a few times before, but thought I'd revisit them.

Collectively, these countries have kicked ass compared to the US, much of Europe and most of South America. Africa has 1.3 billion people and 34K deaths (26 deaths/1MM); the US has 330MM people and 200K deaths (606 deaths/1MM, so the US is about 23X greater per capita), while the EU/UK (186K deaths/510MM or about 365 deaths/1MM) is a bit better than the US and South America (~570 deaths/1MM) is barely better than the US. And the SE Asian countries of Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia, collectively have <2 deaths/1MM (for 275MM people), which is off the charts good.

Most of these countries certainly had less international travel than the "first world" countries (except Thailand), so they had less "seeds" for case growth, but all of them took very proactive steps early on to prevent cases/growth, as outlined in the links below. Many also think that much of the reason for ignoring these success stories is rooted in hubris and arrogance gone overboard in the world's wealthy nations almost all of whom have failed miserably compared to these countries.


https://apnews.com/0a31db50d816a463a6a29bf86463aaa9
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com...st-asia-s-surprising-success-against-covid-19
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/16/world/asia/coronavirus-thailand-photos.html
You really wonder why "most people aren't looking at S/E Asia or Africa" and comparing them to the US or industrialized Western European countries? Come on, man.
 
Ehh, let's not go there.
The US is unique in a lot of ways with 50 plus states/territories with very disparate geography, climate, population density and temperament and tolerance for government interference into their lives. In more sophisticated/educated cities, people may be more inclined to abide by government orders. But could never imagine US citizens being totally obedient to government orders in the way they are in Taiwan. Hypothetically, even if the President issued a nationwide mask order early on, there would be two types of people who would ignore the order--(1) those who will not do what the government tells them to do if it infringes on their "personal freedom; (2) those who hate our President and would not listen to anything he said, even if that included that he had a cure for cancer and it was free.

Face it. We are not Sweden. We are not New Zealand or Taiwan or South Korea. And thank goodness we are not a third world country in Africa. We are still the greatest nation in the world, regardless of our covid numbers. We will persevere, find our way through this and one day come out as an even better nation. That's my mindset, and it will never be shaken, regardless of the narrative of people who hate the current ruling party/administration and the noise from the biased news outlets on both sides.
Preach brother preach!

Numeros and the rest of his CoronoBros band have always looked to shut me down whenever I've posted commonsense like this in past threads.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Caliknight
No deaths on the space station from CoVid either. What a success!

Did China target sub-Saharan Africa?

3/4s of a million visitors from China came here from December to February during the outbreak. China could have prevented ALL of THEM from leaving China.

How many did South Korea get during that time? Taiwan? Vietnam? Sub-Saharan Africa?

The USA itself has a very mobile population who travel widely... as does western Europe.

That alone counts for sub-Saharan Africa's "success". Why would you try to fashion an argument around how sub-Saharan Africa did?

Also.. the virus has mutated since then. It is less deadly now. The later that countries were infected their results should be better.
I said most of these countries likely had much less travel seeding outbreaks, but epidemiologically, all that would do, without interventions, is delay the massive outbreaks, not stop them - look at South America, where many countries didn't start having major outbreaks until well into April. South Korea, Thailand and Vietnam (its neighbor), at least, all have a lot of travel from China, so I doubt that's a differentiating factor (per capita), whereas it would be for Africa and all of those Asian countries have very high mask compliance (over 90%, which is likely the biggest reason for their low numbers).

Also, remember that many of these countries in Africa actually have experience with dreaded diseases like Ebola, so they have some systems in place to monitor for disease and death. And for all of you folks saying that African countries are somehow incapable of counting their dead, then how did we have counts of 2544, 4810, and 3986 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, due to Ebola a few years ago?

Have they suddenly forgotten how to count deaths or did they maybe actually have effecive interventions to arrive at 65, 72, and 82 deaths from COVID so far? Sure, their testing may not be as thorough as many first world countries, but I think they can count deaths and all three of these countries are at <20 deaths/1MM, like most of their neighbors in sub-Saharan Africa. I'm sure a young average age and less mobility have helped, but many of these countries are pretty densely populated and I simply find it hard to believe so many countries could be incapable of counting their dead as others (not you) have posted.

Also, there is zero evidence that the virus has mutated into a less deadly form. Zero.
 
Will not click on the link to NY Times, but perhaps this is their new narrative? US and other "first world countries" should strive to become third world countries to solve covid problems.
Who the hell said that? But maybe we should look at how so many other countries have done so much better, so we could learn something, although we already know why we've done so poorly. And not clicking on the Times is just lame, especially since that link is to a story on Thailand, which is pretty damn informative.
 
Also the U.S. high cycle testing is inflating our chicomvirus numbers too. But it's not what all our CoronoBros want to acknowledge or certain media want to report.
You keep trying to sound scientific, but the far right talking points you get from your hoax sources are not well thought out, as usual. The testing cycles are not "inflating" anything - they're simply detecting many more asymptomatic/presymptomatic infections, which is only "bad" if those folks then don't quarantine - and it has no impact on deaths, since if someone with a COVID infection gets sick enough to go to the hospital and then dies, it was certainly from COVID - you know doctors do know what they're doing. Also, as we've covered COVID deaths are likely seriously undercounted given that our excess deaths (vs. what we'd have in a normal year) are now around 250K during COVID vs. the 200K counted as COVID deaths - it's very likely that many to most of those extra are due to COVID.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT