OT: 12/16/20 Snowstorm Thread: First Significant Winter Storm of the Season - Major Snow/Sleet/Rain
- Thread starter RU848789
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How was WDW? We do an annual trip there, but sadly had to cancel last month. Our daughter is in full-time in-person school and didn't want her to miss so much time (the vacation and then the 2 weeks of quarantine).
Thanks! They're every 6 hours keyed to UTC (Greenwich Mean Time), i.e., 0Z (7 pm EST), 6Z (1 am EST), 12Z (7 am EST) and 18Z (1 pm EST), but this refers to the data input time. It takes hours to input the data and run the models and interpret/report the results, so the 12Z models, start with 7 am EST data, but typically come out between 11 am (GFS) and 1 pm (Euro). Also, most of the model sites only show the 0Z and 12Z model runs for most of the models (except the GFS/NAM, where they show all 4). Next full set is 0Z tonight, which come out between 11 pm and 1 am, which is why I often do my summaries around 2 am or so.
Played at Thompson Park in Jamesburg - very nice course. For 20 years or so, the RU course, where I played a ton in the 80s after it was built (in 1982 for the World Frisbee Championships, which I competed in) was the only course in NJ, but now there's like 30 courses and since I haven't played much in the last 20 years, this was the first course I've played in NJ other than the RU one.
I won't admit it, because it doesn't exist. Pretty sure a biased person would've posted those biblical RGEM maps, but I didn't, since they were out of their range. I agree the boards are somewhat biased, but I don't actually spend that much time there and I only focus on a few posters.
The RGEM is nuts sometimes! 40 inches!RGEM went north...from 40 inches last night for central jersey to 12
Here I am in Cherry Hill. It's clear that it's too early to know what's going to happen here. That used to bother me because I would worry about whether Rutgers would cancel classes on the Camden campus, and whether I would be able to get to school if there were classes. As time went on, Rutgers began cancelling classes more and more, so I got to worry less. But now that I am retired, I don't have to worry at all -- if it snows, I'll just stay inside and wait for the snow removal people to get here. My wife shopped yesterday, so there's no need to go out for a few days. So I'm happy as a clam at high tide, whether it just rains or whether we get a foot of snow -- both seem possible given where the snow-rain line appears to be setting up. Best wishes to everyone; be safe in the storm and don't take any unnecessary chances. If you shovel, take frequent breaks; it sounds like this snow will have a high moisture content in most of the NJ part, so be very careful shoveling. Best wishes!
BTW, my thanks to RU 848789 for these valuable updates. Unlike some people here, I know that they are *not* forecasts but simply reports on what the models show, and unlike some people, I appreciate knowing of the possibility of a storm well in advance even if the details aren't known.
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
My old place is right under the 9 of 34.9 in Orange County. Even 1/3 that used to be soul-crushing!RGEM went north...from 40 inches last night for central jersey to 12
I have never seen so many solutions to one storm...folks at Upton and CH must be hating it
There are a ton of nice courses about 45 to 60 minutes from where you live.
Rutgers is still fun to play though.
If you're sitting there (like I am) wondering what the latest update will be from our resident weather folks, you should be listening to this:
xpn.org
The top 2020 greatest songs of all time, as voted on by listeners of WXPN (UPenn station). You can livestream it while you do whatever else you're doing. They are up to #687, and the mix of songs is really unbelievable, although as they get closer to #1 it will become fewer artists, most likely. You can read the list for fun at this page, as well.
Go! Do it, now!
XPN's 2020 Countdown - ALL TIME GREATEST SONGS
Listener votes have been cast. The list has been tallied. And on Thursday, December 10th, The WXPN 2020 Countdown begins. It’s the greatest songs of all time!
The top 2020 greatest songs of all time, as voted on by listeners of WXPN (UPenn station). You can livestream it while you do whatever else you're doing. They are up to #687, and the mix of songs is really unbelievable, although as they get closer to #1 it will become fewer artists, most likely. You can read the list for fun at this page, as well.
Go! Do it, now!
You're very welcome. I am overjoyed that the Current Events board is now a pay board; it eliminates any temptation to post there!! But a lot of what brought me back was admiration for Coach Schiano. That goes beyond the won-loss record - he won the biggest victory he could by keeping the players safe from Covid-19. I also know from my Rutgers days that he really does care about making sure his athletes get an education, and not assume they will somehow be stars in the NFL.
Great list so far with nice variety and some eclectic selections, which is great - might have to tune itIf you're sitting there (like I am) wondering what the latest update will be from our resident weather folks, you should be listening to this:
XPN's 2020 Countdown - ALL TIME GREATEST SONGS
Listener votes have been cast. The list has been tallied. And on Thursday, December 10th, The WXPN 2020 Countdown begins. It’s the greatest songs of all time!
The top 2020 greatest songs of all time, as voted on by listeners of WXPN (UPenn station). You can livestream it while you do whatever else you're doing. They are up to #687, and the mix of songs is really unbelievable, although as they get closer to #1 it will become fewer artists, most likely. You can read the list for fun at this page, as well.
Go! Do it, now!
Thanks! Weds should be fine before about 2 pm; Thursday would likely have to be after noon or so. I assume they have people to figure this out, but no idea what their plan is.
Interesting. Your evolution regarding snow storms got me thinking.
IIRC, this could be our first big storm post COVID. The impending threat of working from home because the office gets closed, having the kids at home because the school gets closed, with nowhere to go to because most of the local businesses probably close...
It feels just a little bit different this year after months of lockdown.
It was wonderful. Not too crowded, and everyone distanced without an issue.
the 3K Nam is funky...cuts amounts and has sleet for a time after the front thump and moved the heavier amounts to PA
Snow moving way west!the 3K Nam is funky...cuts amounts and has sleet for a time after the front thump and moved the heavier amounts to PA
The NAM finally caved to the global models with that oddball warm nose aloft a few thousand feet, which was causing a lot of sleet along and even NW of 95 in SE PA and CNJ, greatly reducing snowfall, over the last few runs. Never thought it made sense and the 0Z run, which just came out, no longer has that and has a lot more snow. Doesn't mean it's now "right" and that sleet won't return, but as we get closer significant changes become less likely.
Right now, all of the major models are showing 12"+ for Philly-Trenton-NB-NYC, except the 18ZRGEM and 12ZUK, which are in the 9-12" range, due to less precip, due to very heavy bands NW of 95 (very hard to predict those), but let's wait for them all to come in at 0Z before claiming that for the whole 0Z suite.
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Lonnie Quinn remained calm tonight. Even wore his suit for entire late evening segment. I’m sure tomorrow night the sleeves will be rolled up as Lonnie tracks the storm and gets down and dirty into the models etc predicting how sleet totals will reduce snow totals on certain regions etc.
My 2nd least favorite weather person (after Sam Champion)...
Basically, the Euro, UK and CMC all moved a bit SE with their snow fields, as the confluence was a bit stronger (the push of the strong cold air from the high in Canada), so the track of the low was a bit further SE, meaning the snow/rain (or snow/sleet) lines moved SE a bit (like 10-20 miles, which isn't a lot, but makes a big difference for some), more towards what the GFS had been showing - and the GFS moved significantly further NW with its track and snow field, meaning the models are closer together than they were the last 2 cycles, but still some differences obviously.
If you live along or NW of the 95 corridor, prepare for a major (8" or more) snowstorm, with 12" or more possible especially just NW of 95 and anywhere NW of there. Just SE of 95 and towards the coast will likely be the battleground for snow/sleet/rain at times. Also by early Thursday, after about 1 am, most folks should be snowing and the winds will increase to blizzard levels, so it should be pretty wild from maybe 1 am to 7 am. Below are the 4 global models I've been showing. Will likely add the NAM/RGEM tonight, as they'll be within 48 hours of the event start.
There have been some model changes for the 0Z runs that just came out vs. the 12Z runs from around lunchtime, but overall still the same message. If you live along or NW of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC prepare for a major (8" or more) snowstorm, with 12" or more possible especially just NW of 95 and anywhere NW of there (especially for the Trenton to NYC part; a bit less is likely towards Philly). Along and SE of 95 and towards the coast will likely be the battleground for snow/sleet/rain at times, with snowfall amounts decreasing fairly steeply from NW to SE with the immediate coast maybe only getting a few inches near the end of the storm.
Also by early Thursday, after about 1 am, most folks should be snowing and the winds will increase to 30-40 mph gusts inland and 40-55 mph gusts along the coast, so we'll likely have at least occasional blizzard conditions from maybe 1 am to 7 am and probably some power outages, especially where there's a lot of heavy wet snow. In addition, the prolonged NE fetch will lead to moderate coastal flooding for the bays and the Atlantic.
Below are the 4 global models I've been showing, plus two of the best regional, mesoscale models, the NAM and the RGEM, as we're now within 48 hours of the event start, when both of those models become more accurate.
- The 0Z Euro moved its track and snowfield about 10 miles NW of where it was 12 hours ago, which has scared weenie nation, lol. It's a tiny change meteorologically, but a huge change for someone who, digitally at least, went from 14" of all snow to 6" of snow/sleet/rain. Has the 12" line running from about NW Philly to Ewing to South Amboy with much more everywhere NW of that line and the 6" line from Wilmington to Mt. Holly to Freehold to Sea Bright with snowfall dropping off steeply SE of that line. This same gradient occurs in all the models, i.e. more snow almost everywhere NW of the 12" line and steeply decreasing snow SE of the 12" line mostly due to sleet and SE of the 6" line, mostly due to rain.
- The 0Z GFS was fairly similar to the 12Z GFS and has the 12" line from about Cherry Hill to Hazlet and the 6" line from Glassboro to Belmar.
- The 0Z UK moved its track SE a bit, bringing more snow towards 95 and the coast vs. its 12Z run. It has the 12" line from about King of Prussia to Ewing to South Amboy, while the 6" line runs from about NW Philly to Bordentown to Sea Bright.
- The 0Z CMC made the biggest shift NW in its snowfield, due to a fair amount of sleet mixing in along and even NW of 95 for awhile. It has a 12" "line" that is roughly from New Hope to Manhattan and a 6" line from Glassboro to Pt. Pleasant.
- I'll also say what I said in the weather forums: looking closely at the thermal soundings of the atmospheric column, they appear to violate thermodynamics and the kinetics of heat transfer. I picked a spot (New Hope) at 1 am Thursday, during what looks to be the height of the sleet intrusion and the highest the temperature in the column gets is to almost reach 32F at around 750-800 mbar (a few thousand feet up). Even if that temp is really 32.5F, with heavy precip that starts out at -15 to -20C, after crystal nucleation and growth in the dendritic growth zone several thousand feet up, those cold flakes should not warm up and melt during several hundred feet of descent through a 32F or even 32.5F atmosphere, as the warming rate wouldn't be enough. Either the soundings are wrong or the model algorithm is wrong and it's calling snow sleet.
- The 0Z NAM made, by far, the biggest SE shift in its snowfield as all those areas in CNJ/SEPA it was calling sleet at 12Z, holding down snow accumulations significantly, look to have almost all snow at 0Z. As a result the 12" line (curve really) is from about Mt. Holly to Manalapan to South Amboy and the 6" line is from about Cherry Hill to Allaire to Sandy Hook.
- The 0Z RGEM, which I haven't talked much about has a 12" line from about Ardmore, PA to New Hope to Perth Amboy and a 6" line from about Swedesboro to Belmar. This is the model that had a crazy run or two earlier showing 24" amounts for CNJ.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1998-dec-16-18-possible-major-ec-snowstorm/page/193/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...dnesday-noon-thursday-dec-16-17-2020/page/68/
NWS just put out their regional snowfall map, below, and the NWS-Philly is staying fairly aggressive - a bit moreso than me, with 12-18" of snow (with some sleet) predicted for most of Middlesex, Mercer, Somerset, Bucks, Montgomery, Chester, Delaware and Philadelphia counties and all of Somerset, Hunterdon, and Morris and even a bit more than that NW of there with 20-24" predicted for the Poconos, Sussex/Warren, and Lehigh Valley.
Warnings are up for all of these counties and watches, still for the counties on the NJ side of the Delaware in SNJ, and Monmouth, since sleet/rain may hold accumulations down there. Monmouth might see the biggest gradient of any county, with only a few inches along the coast but possibly 12" or more close to Middlesex and Mercer counties.
And the NWS-NYC is similarly aggressive with 12-17" predicted for NE NJ (Union up to Bergen) and the Hudson Valley and CT, but a little less aggressive with only 8-14" for NYC and most of LI, as they think sleet will hold accumulations down a bit - this is what I would expect for Middlesex, Mercer, Philly and its close suburbs in PA. It's why my guess for my house in Metuchen is for 14" of snow/sleet "equivalent" (the point/click forecast is for 17" all snow in case anyone thinks I'm bullish, lol).
The NWS also put out their regional max wind gust map, below, and it shows the coastal counties in NJ/NY with up to 60 mph gusts possible and 40-50 mph inland (this would be mostly after 11 pm Wednesday, through 7 am Thursday). Where this coincides with heavy snowfall, we'll likely see occasional blizzard conditions, although my guess is we'll only see blizzard warnings for LI and maybe NYC.
https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=PHI
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
Warnings are up for all of these counties and watches, still for the counties on the NJ side of the Delaware in SNJ, and Monmouth, since sleet/rain may hold accumulations down there. Monmouth might see the biggest gradient of any county, with only a few inches along the coast but possibly 12" or more close to Middlesex and Mercer counties.
And the NWS-NYC is similarly aggressive with 12-17" predicted for NE NJ (Union up to Bergen) and the Hudson Valley and CT, but a little less aggressive with only 8-14" for NYC and most of LI, as they think sleet will hold accumulations down a bit - this is what I would expect for Middlesex, Mercer, Philly and its close suburbs in PA. It's why my guess for my house in Metuchen is for 14" of snow/sleet "equivalent" (the point/click forecast is for 17" all snow in case anyone thinks I'm bullish, lol).
The NWS also put out their regional max wind gust map, below, and it shows the coastal counties in NJ/NY with up to 60 mph gusts possible and 40-50 mph inland (this would be mostly after 11 pm Wednesday, through 7 am Thursday). Where this coincides with heavy snowfall, we'll likely see occasional blizzard conditions, although my guess is we'll only see blizzard warnings for LI and maybe NYC.
https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=PHI
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
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We're pretty much neighbors, and I'm getting the same sinking feeling looking at these latest maps. That rain/snow line is too close, and when it's too close, the rain wins out and the snow totals are pitiful. Meanwhile, they'll be balling out in Pennington.Looks like the lowered the totals near me from 13” to 11”. I’m just north of 195 in Hamilton. I have a feeling it’s gonna keep going down the closer we get. I’d be surprised if I end up with over 6”
Imagine an adult wanting a lot of snow. I mean, you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years in Syracuse or State College.
I also think Mt Holly is too bullish for Somerset County having them in the 18-24 range. As my first call given overnight models i like a 8-14 inch call from Trenton to Somerville. I think we could see some lollipops of 12-16 in Somerset. 10-16 probably covers Hunterdon/Morris. Middlesex and Union I think 8-14 as well with some isolated higher amounts. As we get to Monmouth things get dicey with big cut off in amounts. We will go with 4-8 but some areas could go higher. Ocean County looks to be on the edge and might see 1-2 inches of slush. Philly and Burlington perhaps 6-10 but further in south jersey maybe 3-6 if that.
NW Nj could see the highest amounts of 12 -18 with lollipops of 20 inches. I see Nyc in the 8-12 range but that could be shaved
Things can be adjusted based on todays runs. Im not a fan of going with the heavier amounts unless there is more certainty. I do understand why Mt Holly is following their oath.
NW Nj could see the highest amounts of 12 -18 with lollipops of 20 inches. I see Nyc in the 8-12 range but that could be shaved
Things can be adjusted based on todays runs. Im not a fan of going with the heavier amounts unless there is more certainty. I do understand why Mt Holly is following their oath.
Agree...its one to want a 6 inch snow but the peeps on the weenie board get upset when their totals go from 18 to only 12 inches. Reminds me of the gals at the Hillsborough Deli
awesome!!!!!!If you're sitting there (like I am) wondering what the latest update will be from our resident weather folks, you should be listening to this:
XPN's 2020 Countdown - ALL TIME GREATEST SONGS
Listener votes have been cast. The list has been tallied. And on Thursday, December 10th, The WXPN 2020 Countdown begins. It’s the greatest songs of all time!
The top 2020 greatest songs of all time, as voted on by listeners of WXPN (UPenn station). You can livestream it while you do whatever else you're doing. They are up to #687, and the mix of songs is really unbelievable, although as they get closer to #1 it will become fewer artists, most likely. You can read the list for fun at this page, as well.
Go! Do it, now!
@numbers, what are we looking like for this storm now?
A
anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Great discussion in plain terms by Dan Zarrow
nj1015.com
Winter Storm Warning: 7 things to know about NJ's Wed-Thu nor'easter
Let's rundown the latest snow, ice, rain, wind, and coastal flooding forecast, as a powerful coastal storm system heads for New Jersey.
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