OT: First winter storm end of week?
- Thread starter mikemarc1
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It's legit as a snowstorm for areas well N/W of the 95 corridor, as somewhere between a few and several inches of snow along with a fair amount of rain) are looking likely for the Lehigh Valley, Poconos, Sussex/Warren, Catskills and much more (6" or more) for northern NY/New England from Thursday late afternoon through Friday morning - should be a nice start for the ski areas from NE PA through NY New England.
For most of the Philly-NYC corridor, some models are showing the potential for an inch or two of snow, but it's likely that most of that is "white rain" (snow falling, but not accumulating with above 32F surface temps), followed by 1" or more of plain rain, plus we're still 3-4 days out, which is way too early to predict a Nov snowstorm for the big cities, which rarely get much snow before December (the interior is another story - decent snows are more common in mid/late Nov) - not impossible, just unlikely.
The NWS isn't buying much snow for the urban corridor at this point, as per below, but clearly discusses the potential for appreciable snow in the far NW locations. If we see the models showing appreciable snow ~24 hours from now, after all of the pieces of energy are on the North American continent (better initial data), then we can start worrying about a snow event, maybe even towards I-95.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday through Friday...A cut-off upper low positioned across the
ArkLaTex region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the Ohio Valley by another upper trough digging
southward through Friday. This will result in another area of low
pressure developing and moving up the East Coast late Thursday
through Friday. With the colder air that will be in place in the
wake of the early week system and high pressure anchored initially
across New England, wintery mix (rain mixing with snow/sleet) is
looking more likely at the onset of this event, particularly our
northern-most zones and higher elevations where precip may remain a
mix of rain/snow or all snow through the majority of the event. The
onset mixed precip type may easily be experienced across even our
southern most zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster
with precip onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less
time to warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more widespread
mixed precip will result. This will also depend on the exact track
of the low, which is still uncertain. All that said, temperatures
are expected to be too warm in most area for any significant or
measurable accumulations. The Poconos may have some light
accumulations, however, if temps remain cold enough. Even after
precip begins, temperatures will warm throughout the day into the
upper 30s and 40s except the Poconos where temps are more likely to
remain closer to the freezing mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with this system as of now. Rain will come to an end by
late Friday morning with a few showers lingering through the
afternoon hours.
For most of the Philly-NYC corridor, some models are showing the potential for an inch or two of snow, but it's likely that most of that is "white rain" (snow falling, but not accumulating with above 32F surface temps), followed by 1" or more of plain rain, plus we're still 3-4 days out, which is way too early to predict a Nov snowstorm for the big cities, which rarely get much snow before December (the interior is another story - decent snows are more common in mid/late Nov) - not impossible, just unlikely.
The NWS isn't buying much snow for the urban corridor at this point, as per below, but clearly discusses the potential for appreciable snow in the far NW locations. If we see the models showing appreciable snow ~24 hours from now, after all of the pieces of energy are on the North American continent (better initial data), then we can start worrying about a snow event, maybe even towards I-95.
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
401 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Thursday through Friday...A cut-off upper low positioned across the
ArkLaTex region Wednesday will get picked up and ejected
northeastward across the Ohio Valley by another upper trough digging
southward through Friday. This will result in another area of low
pressure developing and moving up the East Coast late Thursday
through Friday. With the colder air that will be in place in the
wake of the early week system and high pressure anchored initially
across New England, wintery mix (rain mixing with snow/sleet) is
looking more likely at the onset of this event, particularly our
northern-most zones and higher elevations where precip may remain a
mix of rain/snow or all snow through the majority of the event. The
onset mixed precip type may easily be experienced across even our
southern most zones. The latest ECMWF and GFS have trended faster
with precip onset time (as early as daybreak Thursday), meaning less
time to warmup with daytime heating or advection before precip
overrunning begins. The faster the system is, the more widespread
mixed precip will result. This will also depend on the exact track
of the low, which is still uncertain. All that said, temperatures
are expected to be too warm in most area for any significant or
measurable accumulations. The Poconos may have some light
accumulations, however, if temps remain cold enough. Even after
precip begins, temperatures will warm throughout the day into the
upper 30s and 40s except the Poconos where temps are more likely to
remain closer to the freezing mark. Expecting about 1-1.5 inches of
rainfall with this system as of now. Rain will come to an end by
late Friday morning with a few showers lingering through the
afternoon hours.
Wet snow to rain in the northern parts of NJ, all rain south of about I-80. Non-event.
Thanks! Could not find you at the tailgate Saturday- @mildone gave a good marker, but wandered past several times and did not see you there.
I wouldn't go that pessimistic, but will agree that predicting major snowfalls in mid-Nov for the I-95 corridor is risky business - climo is just against it, but it is possible, and the models have trended colder/snowier (Euro and GFS are both showing 3-6" for much of the area along and NW of the Turnpike and even a few inches towards the shore - I'm not buying it at this stage, but it's not out of the realm of possibility). But 3" or more for the interior sections I mentioned is now looking like at least a 50-50 chance.
Sorry we missed you - despite the cold/wind, we had a fun tailgate with our best food effort of the year. We need a marker, since I'm not a phone guy and rarely remember to check it during tailgates - too busy with the eating and drinking and playing tunes.
Said it above, but basically, the northern parts of the Lehigh Valley, the Poconos, Sussex/Warren (and NW parts of Morris/Passaic), the Hudson Valley north of the Tappan Zee, and the Catskills. A few to several inches are possible, with the greater amounts the further NW one goes and the greater in elevation.
And after your miss on the UM game, maybe you should pay more attention.
No, we're 50-50 on the non-February events - we've been to some at the Court, but the Saint has less attraction for us (rarely went there and a much further drive).
You just can't help yourself can you? You get banned from threads for trolling and then you have to troll again. Your definition of whiffed on homecoming was a few more sprinkles (OMG sprinkles - I'm melting!) from 8-9 am than expected, whereas my prediction of rain until 8 am was spot on, as was my call for the rain to stop around 9 am, which it did. Temps were also spot on all day, as was the call for some sunshine in the 2nd half.
Excuse me didn't you just troll @bac2therac?
And you did blow it on Homecoming saying it was over at the exact time it was raining "significantly " in the Rutgers Lots. And defend yourself yet you weren't there yet. Look in the mirror if you want to see a troll.
bac was wrong, so I wasn't "trolling" him. And I never said that all precip was over, I just said that the "significant rain" was over and it was - if you want to debate what significant rain is, fine, I've said many times that <0.02" of rain is insignificant and that's what fell (sprinkles) after my comment.
Also, even if you happen to think that sprinkles are significant, we're talking at most a slight miss for about an hour of a 9-hour forecast, the rest of which was spot on, so calling the entire forecast a whiff is a gross overstatement. But that's kind of your specialty on weather threads for reasons I can't begin to fathom.
wrong on what....a forecast from 6 days...all I said was hold the horses because its 6 days away..how is that wrong
,
Any significant rain showers, which we had overnight, are now over, as the line of showers moves off the coast.
I was in the lots when you made this post from home. You whiffed. Can't argue if you weren't there.
Umm your post as it was raining hard at the Stadium, which you admit you weren't there yet.
Any significant rain showers, which we had overnight, are now over, as the line of showers moves off the coast.
I was in the lots when you made this post from home. You whiffed. Can't argue if you weren't there.
You said, "its just as likely to be rainy and warm based on shifting and different model outputs for the weekend so I would edit that title." I said that was wrong and it was far more likely to be cool and dry than rainy and warm. You were wrong and I was right. Pretty simple, I think.
well great I will hold you to that standard then...of course your doublespeak in trying to cover your statements is constant of yours but your 50/50 statement on 3 or more inches and possible snow to the coast will leave you up to criticism
the NWS says this...which certainly does not sound like 50/50 for 3 inches of snow
Now you're just being difficult. Thread title said cool for the air temps (low/mid-40s), which was spot on. Thread title said windy with wind chills in the mid-30s, which was also spot on. Text in the threads said the wind chill would be cold, which it was for everyone except @DJ Spanky, who was wearing shorts (I was not, lol). I know people sometimes disagree with my personal definition of things like cool and cold or light or moderate precip, which is why I always provide the expected temps, rainfall amounts, etc., so people can decide on their own. I really have no idea what your issue is here.
This is my thread.
Can we please keep personal shots out if it and focus solely on weather updates?
Please???
Can we please keep personal shots out if it and focus solely on weather updates?
Please???
you said cool..it was cold by any metric. by the way it dropped into the upper 30s during the game
It wasn't the cold as much as the freekin wind. We were having gusts around 40 down here all day. Found one of my garbage cans a block away.
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