OT: Hurricane Ian to Bring Major to Catastrophic Impacts to Cuba/Florida (and 2022 Tropical Weather Thread):

RU848789

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After last year's 3rd busiest tropical season ever, with 21 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, many of which wreaked havoc for numerous locations in the Atlantic Basin and the US, with 8 tropical systems making US landfalls, including, of course, Henri and Ida, which brought record rainfall and flooding to parts of our area, both CSU (Colorado State U, home of the late, great Dr. Gray, who pioneered seasonal tropical forecasting for the Atlantic Basin nearly 40 years ago) and NOAA are predicting a somewhat to well above average tropical season in the Atlantic this year. This is just two years after 2020's record smashing tropical season, featuring 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes. Busy cycle we're in.

CSU's prediction is for 20 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 10 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA issued their forecast 2 weeks ago and it's a little bit lower than CSU's, but still somewhat above average with predictions of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 17.5 named storms (20 from CSU), 8 hurricanes (10 from CSU) and 4.5 major hurricanes (5 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the neutral ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state, which is expected to continue (El Nino conditions inhibit tropical activity) and current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). If RU4Real were still around, he'd have a prediction contest...

And we're about to have tropical storm Alex named as our first storm of the season, after this low pressure system inundated much of South Florida with torrential flooding rains over the past day or so (but it didn't have enough tropical characteristics to be named yet). It's heading ENE towards Bermuda and won't strengthen much (50-60 mph, tops).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#One
Tgl8Qk3.png


JRadVeH.png
 
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RUfinally2008

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My brother has a beautiful home about 700 yards from the beach in Nags Head, NC. he's only been there since 2019 and has yet to experience anything major yet. Every time something is brewing in the Atlantic or Gulf, he worries about alternate shelter. They have 3 dogs and 2 cats so who the hell will take them in? Crazy, as I couldn't live with that hanging over my head. As always, praying they dodge another bullet this tropical season.
 

Doteman

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Very interested in this Saturday’s forecast 6/11. Have a surprise 50th bday party with 100 guests or more. Weather.gov showing rain likely? Is this tropical remnants or no?
 

RU848789

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Very interested in this Saturday’s forecast 6/11. Have a surprise 50th bday party with 100 guests or more. Weather.gov showing rain likely? Is this tropical remnants or no?
Where are you located? Assuming somewhere in NJ, Saturday is looking fairly rainy, right now on 3 of the 4 major global models, although it's still 6 days out and much can change. Nothing to do with remnants of Alex, which is moving quickly out in the Atlantic past Bermuda as we speak. Just a likely stalled frontal boundary on Saturday, with a low pressure system forming and riding up it and bringing possibly substantial rainfall. Hopefully this forecast changes, for you and for me (have a big disc golf tourney scheduled on Saturday and playing in the rain sucks).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 

RU848789

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My brother has a beautiful home about 700 yards from the beach in Nags Head, NC. he's only been there since 2019 and has yet to experience anything major yet. Every time something is brewing in the Atlantic or Gulf, he worries about alternate shelter. They have 3 dogs and 2 cats so who the hell will take them in? Crazy, as I couldn't live with that hanging over my head. As always, praying they dodge another bullet this tropical season.
Unfortunately, for the Outer Banks, it's just a matter of time before another hurricane strikes. On average, over the last 170 years, NC sees a landfalling tropical system every 2 years and a landfalling hurricane every 3.2 years.

https://www.fox46.com/news/u-s/nort...s-make-landfall-in-north-carolina-on-average/
 
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Doteman

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Where are you located? Assuming somewhere in NJ, Saturday is looking fairly rainy, right now on 3 of the 4 major global models, although it's still 6 days out and much can change. Nothing to do with remnants of Alex, which is moving quickly out in the Atlantic past Bermuda as we speak. Just a likely stalled frontal boundary on Saturday, with a low pressure system forming and riding up it and bringing possibly substantial rainfall. Hopefully this forecast changes, for you and for me (have a big disc golf tourney scheduled on Saturday and playing in the rain sucks).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
 

RU848789

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Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
Most models still showing significant rainfall during the day on Saturday for the whole area (all of NJ). Still too far out to call the forecast a lock, though...
 
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RU848789

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Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
Things are looking a bit better for Saturday, with models now showing some rain, still, but much less than they were showing earlier. And it's even possible much of the day will remain dry in some places, although it's not clear where those places will be yet. Stay tuned.
 
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RU848789

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Party is going to be in Forked River, just south of Toms River in Ocean County. Thank you for the reply, hopefully something changes for both of us that day
Forecast for Saturday continues to improve. Now it looks like just some scattered showers in the afternoon (likely <0.1" of total rain), but definitely not a washout for the whole area, including Forked River. It's also possible that no rain falls. What time is your party and is it outdoors? If outdoors, you'd probably still want to have some shelter/tent available (or room for everyone inside during a shower) just in case.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend days have been trending in opposite directions, with
Saturday looking less inclement, but Sunday looking more so. For the
moment, that leaves both days with relatively similar chances of
rain, but this trend may continue and the higher rain risk may end
up being Sunday.

To start Saturday morning, a remnant weak area of surface high
pressure will be sitting over the Mid-Atlantic. Despite this surface
high, we also expect an area of rain showers to be occurring, mainly
west of our forecast area, due primarily due to a strong upper level
shortwave rotating around the closed low which will be lingering in
southern Canada. However, this high looks likely to linger thru the
day, so as the trough swings through and surface low pressure tries
to develop to our south, odds slightly favor drier conditions
prevailing, especially towards eastern areas where the drier and
more stable air mass will be most persistent. So, have mainly
chance pops for Saturday, highest in the afternoon, with a slight
chance of thunder. With the cooler Canadian air mass still in place
and clouds likely to be more common, temps likely stay a bit on the
cooler side of normal. Drier conditions prevail Saturday night as that system heads off the
coast, but they don`t last long.
 

Doteman

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Forecast for Saturday continues to improve. Now it looks like just some scattered showers in the afternoon (likely <0.1" of total rain), but definitely not a washout for the whole area, including Forked River. It's also possible that no rain falls. What time is your party and is it outdoors? If outdoors, you'd probably still want to have some shelter/tent available (or room for everyone inside during a shower) just in case.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
339 PM EDT Thu Jun 9 2022

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The weekend days have been trending in opposite directions, with
Saturday looking less inclement, but Sunday looking more so. For the
moment, that leaves both days with relatively similar chances of
rain, but this trend may continue and the higher rain risk may end
up being Sunday.

To start Saturday morning, a remnant weak area of surface high
pressure will be sitting over the Mid-Atlantic. Despite this surface
high, we also expect an area of rain showers to be occurring, mainly
west of our forecast area, due primarily due to a strong upper level
shortwave rotating around the closed low which will be lingering in
southern Canada. However, this high looks likely to linger thru the
day, so as the trough swings through and surface low pressure tries
to develop to our south, odds slightly favor drier conditions
prevailing, especially towards eastern areas where the drier and
more stable air mass will be most persistent. So, have mainly
chance pops for Saturday, highest in the afternoon, with a slight
chance of thunder. With the cooler Canadian air mass still in place
and clouds likely to be more common, temps likely stay a bit on the
cooler side of normal. Drier conditions prevail Saturday night as that system heads off the
coast, but they don`t last long.
Sounds great Numbers. Gonna be both inside/outside. Got a good tent setup just in case. Thx for updates, appreciate it
 
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RU848789

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Sounds great Numbers. Gonna be both inside/outside. Got a good tent setup just in case. Thx for updates, appreciate it
Looking even better after the latest model runs with no measurable precip being shown before 3-4 pm at all and very little through 7-8 pm (maybe 0.05"). Mild and mostly cloudy ain't so bad...

Plotter.php
 
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RU848789

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After last year's 3rd busiest tropical season ever, with 21 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes, many of which wreaked havoc for numerous locations in the Atlantic Basin and the US, with 8 tropical systems making US landfalls, including, of course, Henri and Ida, which brought record rainfall and flooding to parts of our area, both CSU (Colorado State U, home of the late, great Dr. Gray, who pioneered seasonal tropical forecasting for the Atlantic Basin nearly 40 years ago) and NOAA are predicting a somewhat to well above average tropical season in the Atlantic this year. This is just two years after 2020's record smashing tropical season, featuring 30 named storms, 14 hurricanes and 7 major (cat 3 or higher) hurricanes. Busy cycle we're in.

CSU's prediction is for 20 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 10 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA issued their forecast 2 weeks ago and it's a little bit lower than CSU's, but still somewhat above average with predictions of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. see the graphics and links below. They do ranges, unlike CSU, but the midpoint of their ranges is reasonably close to CSU's prediction, i.e., 17.5 named storms (20 from CSU), 8 hurricanes (10 from CSU) and 4.5 major hurricanes (5 from CSU).

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season

Both groups use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the neutral ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state, which is expected to continue (El Nino conditions inhibit tropical activity) and current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs as keys to their forecasts.

We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). If RU4Real were still around, he'd have a prediction contest...

And we're about to have tropical storm Alex named as our first storm of the season, after this low pressure system inundated much of South Florida with torrential flooding rains over the past day or so (but it didn't have enough tropical characteristics to be named yet). It's heading ENE towards Bermuda and won't strengthen much (50-60 mph, tops).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#One
Tgl8Qk3.png


JRadVeH.png
Both CSU and NOAA updated their tropical season outlooks over the past few days, with both of them maintaining predictions of above average tropical storms and hurricanes, but nudging those forecasts down a tad vs. their June forecasts, as per the linked article, with the forecasts summarized in the graphic below.

Also, for those who wonder why these forecasts would be updated, it's simply because we're closer in time to most of our tropical activity, so the foreast should be more accurate (nobody asks why Monday's forecast for Friday gets update every day after Monday and sometimes every hour, lol). In addition, >90% of tropical activity occurs after the August updates (2nd graphic), so the season has barely begun, really.

Even though it's been over a month since the last named storm, with 3 named storms so far, that's average for the season through early August. Also, we now have our first tropical wave in weeks (which is pretty unusual), south of the Cape Verde Islands, which could become a tropical system; It's not a given that this will form a named system, but it's worth watching.

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...hurricane-season-outlook-2022-update-csu-noaa

2022-hur-season-outlook-4aug.jpg


trop-activity-aug-later.jpg
 

RUfinally2008

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""Even though it's been over a month since the last named storm, with 3 named storms so far, that's average for the season through early August. ""To be exact, 2 days shy of 2 months would be more accurate. 😇
 

RU848789

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After a quiet start to the tropical season, with the first time we've had no named storms in August since 1997, things are heating up as they usually do in September. Tropical Storm Danielle formed yesterday in the central Atlantic and is forecast to become a cat 2 hurricane over the next few days as it meanders NE-ward, but fortunately it poses no threat to land, as it's currently about 900 miles west of the Azores.

There's also a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands which has a 70% chance of becoming a named system over the next several days. Also conditions over the eastern Atlantic, where many systems form this time of year have become more favorable for tropical development, especially with regard to less Saharan dry air. Will be interesting to see if activity heats up enough for the above normal seasonal forecasts to verify.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
 

RU848789

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After a quiet start to the tropical season, with the first time we've had no named storms in August since 1997, things are heating up as they usually do in September. Tropical Storm Danielle formed yesterday in the central Atlantic and is forecast to become a cat 2 hurricane over the next few days as it meanders NE-ward, but fortunately it poses no threat to land, as it's currently about 900 miles west of the Azores.

There's also a tropical wave a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands which has a 70% chance of becoming a named system over the next several days. Also conditions over the eastern Atlantic, where many systems form this time of year have become more favorable for tropical development, especially with regard to less Saharan dry air. Will be interesting to see if activity heats up enough for the above normal seasonal forecasts to verify.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
And while I was galavanting about in Boston and Worcester this weekend, tropical storm Earl formed from the wave east of the Lesser Antilles and is forecast to become a hurricane as it heads N, then NE, not threatening any land masses, fortunately. Danielle is now a Cat 1 hurricane fairly far north (almost at 40N) in the central Atlantic and will possibly strike NW Euroope after transitioning to a non-tropical system (that could still pack a strong punch) in a few days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
 

RU848789

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We now have Hurricane Earl, which is forecast to just miss Bermuda to the east and then to head N then NE away from any land, thankfully, as it's forecast to become the first major hurricane of the season.

As experts have been predicting, the Cape Verde area off the coast of Africa looks to be getting very active with multiple potential systems possible in the near future... nice article on this and Earl by AccuWeather...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurr...uda-ahead-of-hurricane-earls-approach/1242588
 

RU848789

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Tropical Storm Fiona was just named and will likely be impacting Puerto Rico in a couple of days, then Hispaniola, and then the Bahamas by Mon/Tues. Beyond that it's more likely the storm will curve N then NE, missing the US, but that's too far out to have confidence in so folks from FL to NC should still watch this closely.

Fortunately, the NHC is not currently forecasting the storm to become a hurricane through the Bahamas, but strong tropical storms (60-65 mph winds are forecast) can still do damage, especially with regard to flooding rains.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Fiona
 

RU848789

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Tropical Storm Fiona was just named and will likely be impacting Puerto Rico in a couple of days, then Hispaniola, and then the Bahamas by Mon/Tues. Beyond that it's more likely the storm will curve N then NE, missing the US, but that's too far out to have confidence in so folks from FL to NC should still watch this closely.

Fortunately, the NHC is not currently forecasting the storm to become a hurricane through the Bahamas, but strong tropical storms (60-65 mph winds are forecast) can still do damage, especially with regard to flooding rains.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Fiona
Fiona is about to become a hurricane and will hit the west coast of Puerto Rico today and then then graze the east coast of the Dominican Republic tomorrow, as the storm heads NE towards the eastern Bahamas. The storm is forecast to strengthen to close to Cat 3 (~110 mph) on its course towards Bermuda; the storm is no direct threat to the US, fortunately.

115624_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

RU848789

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Was this the worst prediction ever?
Season isn't anywhere near over yet, so no, but if it keeps going slowly it'll be one of the worst since Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal tropical activity forecasting for the Atlantic Basin in the mid-80s. Generally, these predictions are accurate (with regard to below avg, avg, and above avg activity) close to 70% of the time, which is much better than the ~33% random guessing would provide, but it's certainly nowhere near 100%, meaning yes they've been pretty far off in some seasons. iirc, the link in the first post has their forecasting accuracy somewhere in it (not sure if it's by season though).
 

RU848789

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Unfortunately, Hurricane Fiona has way overperformed with regard to rainfall across Puerto Rico, with some areas expecting 2 feet or more of rain and catastrophic flooding being commonplace. The storm took the worst track for rainfall, i.e., just south of the island and then turning NW as it tracks between the west end of the island and the DR, keeping PR in the heaviest rains to the north and then east of the storm all day, with the storm making landfall in SW PR with 85 mph winds several hours ago.

Countless water rescues have occurred and are ongoing with more to come. In addition, the island is without power, although some of this is preventative and this is not expected to be like the weeks to months of power loss from Maria. Beyond this, Fiona is now expected to become the first major hurricane of the season with 120-125 mph winds in a few days as the storm makes a very close pass by Bermuda (but hopefully 50-100 miles west of the island).

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/18/weather/tropical-storm-fiona-sunday/index.html
 

RU848789

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Fiona has become the first major hurricane of the season with 115 mph winds, after hammering the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas. Fiona should miss Bermuda, which is fortunate, as the storm is forecast to become a Cat 4 storm with 140 mph winds as it passes to the west of the island. From there, Fiona will likely make another landfall in either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland on Saturday with 100 mph winds likely, as it transitions to an extratropical storm.

In addition, this afternoon we had Tropical Storm Gaston born in the Central Atlantic, but it likely won't get beyond 60 mph winds and is not a threat to land, other than perhaps the Azores. Beyond that we also have a vigorous tropical wave west of the Leeward Islands that has a very good chance of becoming Hermine as it enters the Caribbean, where conditions look to be favorable for strengthening, so interests down there need to watch this one. Still a ways to go in the season...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
 

cockhornleghorn

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Was this the worst prediction ever?
I've seen the month of October chock full of storms, so don't speak too soon. A wave just east of the Lesser Antilles may become the beast of this season.

On another note, my interest in tropical storms and hurricanes was born from a brush with Agnes in Central Jersey in '72. I was but a wee lad and remember it well.
 
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RU848789

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I've seen the month of October chock full of storms, so don't speak too soon. A wave just east of the Lesser Antilles may become the beast of this season.

On another note, my interest in tropical storms and hurricanes was born from a brush with Agnes in Central Jersey in '72. I was but a wee lad and remember it well.
Same here. I was 10 when Agnes hit us in SNJ (Gloucester Co) and I can still remember the relentless heavy rain and gusty winds against my bedroom window, which eventually started leaking a bit so my mom put towels down to absorb the water. I also recall seeing the reports of devastating flooding all over the eastern US, especially in PA.
 

RU4Real

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Yes, for certain it's too early to make any solid predictions, but after a mostly "storm-proof" season for the U.S., so far, it appears that current activity around the Leewards is on track to *potentially* develop into a major storm for the Gulf of Mexico in the 7-10 day range.

Might as well keep an eye on it and see what happens, since we haven't had a lot to talk about this hurricane season.
FdN5mu7aAAAk6vj
 

cockhornleghorn

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Same here. I was 10 when Agnes hit us in SNJ (Gloucester Co) and I can still remember the relentless heavy rain and gusty winds against my bedroom window, which eventually started leaking a bit so my mom put towels down to absorb the water. I also recall seeing the reports of devastating flooding all over the eastern US, especially in PA.
I was 8 and I remember the leaves on the weeping willow blowing horizontally. We were in South River in Middlesex County.
 

RU848789

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Fiona has become the first major hurricane of the season with 115 mph winds, after hammering the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas. Fiona should miss Bermuda, which is fortunate, as the storm is forecast to become a Cat 4 storm with 140 mph winds as it passes to the west of the island. From there, Fiona will likely make another landfall in either Nova Scotia or Newfoundland on Saturday with 100 mph winds likely, as it transitions to an extratropical storm.

In addition, this afternoon we had Tropical Storm Gaston born in the Central Atlantic, but it likely won't get beyond 60 mph winds and is not a threat to land, other than perhaps the Azores. Beyond that we also have a vigorous tropical wave west of the Leeward Islands that has a very good chance of becoming Hermine as it enters the Caribbean, where conditions look to be favorable for strengthening, so interests down there need to watch this one. Still a ways to go in the season...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Fiona will hammer Bermuda with hurricane force wind gusts tonight into tomorrow, even though it's going to pass over 150 miles west of the island (it has winds of 130 mph now), and then look out if you're in Nova Scotia, as Fiona will still be packing 90-100 mph winds as it hits there Saturday morning as a storm transitioning from tropical to extratropical (warm core to cold core driven). Also, expect big waves, rip currents and beach erosion in our area from tonight through early Saturday.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

After that, the big story will be Invest 98L, which is poised to become Hermine in the next day or so, as it moves through the far southern Caribbean, not far from South America. Many models are showing the storm possibly becoming a hurricane as it moves northward through the Caribbean early next week and then possibly into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week. Definitely worth watching.

Finally Gaston will likely hit the western Azores as a strong tropical storm in the next day or two, but will weaken after that and become post-tropical. There are also a couple of tropical waves off the coast of Africa that need to be watched.

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...-possible-caribbean-gulf-hurricane-threat-98l
 

RUPete

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The season is making up for lost time, unfortunately. I always root for a dud.
 

Lerxst72

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Numbers -
GF and I are taking our kids to Western PR (Rincon) Nov. 7 to 12th. Thoughts as to what the Hurricane season may look like in early November? Is there any way to know?

I'm even wondering what PR may be like from this last storm and if they get hit with anything else.
 

RU4Real

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How is this progressing?
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that
time. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia
later this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

RU848789

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Numbers -
GF and I are taking our kids to Western PR (Rincon) Nov. 7 to 12th. Thoughts as to what the Hurricane season may look like in early November? Is there any way to know?

I'm even wondering what PR may be like from this last storm and if they get hit with anything else.
Sorry, there's no way to know when and where a storm will hit that hasn't formed yet. On the plus side though, climatologically, tropical activity greatly winds down by early November. Western PR was hit pretty hard by Fiona (flooding) so might be worth checking with your hotel (or local websites).
 

RU4Real

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Hidey-ho. This disturbance is now officially Tropical Depression 9, as of 5AM this morning. The model consensus has landed on this storm developing quickly, with the expectation that it will be a named tropical storm by end of day today and a hurricane on Monday.

The track guidance has shifted to the right during the overnight and as of right now interests on the southwest coast of Florida should take notice. As always, the projected track may shift over the next several days.
090354_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

RU4Real

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The latest satellite shows that TD9 has become a pretty well-formed storm during the overnight period.
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BigEastPhil

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Nov 25, 2007
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Thanks for the update ! I see the storm will go over Cuba. Aren’t there mountains in Cuba that many times weaken these type of storms?
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Fiona will hammer Bermuda with hurricane force wind gusts tonight into tomorrow, even though it's going to pass over 150 miles west of the island (it has winds of 130 mph now), and then look out if you're in Nova Scotia, as Fiona will still be packing 90-100 mph winds as it hits there Saturday morning as a storm transitioning from tropical to extratropical (warm core to cold core driven). Also, expect big waves, rip currents and beach erosion in our area from tonight through early Saturday.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

After that, the big story will be Invest 98L, which is poised to become Hermine in the next day or so, as it moves through the far southern Caribbean, not far from South America. Many models are showing the storm possibly becoming a hurricane as it moves northward through the Caribbean early next week and then possibly into the Gulf of Mexico in about a week. Definitely worth watching.

Finally Gaston will likely hit the western Azores as a strong tropical storm in the next day or two, but will weaken after that and become post-tropical. There are also a couple of tropical waves off the coast of Africa that need to be watched.

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...-possible-caribbean-gulf-hurricane-threat-98l
Things are about to get pretty serious for both Fiona, as it tracks towards a landfall as the most powerful hurricane to ever strike Atlantic Canada (Nova Scotia), and what will shortly be Hermine, as it is forecast to become at least a Cat 2 hurricane before striking western Cuba and then SW Florida (much greater uncertainty for Hermine than Fiona).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Fiona

Fiona is currently a strong Cat 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds (was Cat 4 with 130 mph winds) and is a fairly large system, such that it's producing hurricane force wind gusts on Bermuda, 150 miles to the SW of the storm. Over the next 24 hours, Fiona will be transitioning from a warm core tropical system to a cold core extratropical system, meaning the storm will become larger, but with a bit lower winds as it moves over colder north Atlantic waters.

However, regardless of whether it's tropical or extratropical (will actually be a hybrid of both) when it hits Nova Scotia in about 24-30 hours on Saturday morning, it's going to be packing 90-100 mph winds and will likely break the all-time Canadian record for low pressure, as the central low pressure of Fiona is forecast to be in the 920-930 mbar range at landfall (which is typical of Cat 4 hurricanes) vs. the current record of 940 mbar set in Newfoundland in 1977. Wind, rain, and surf damage on Nova Scotia and even PEI and Newfoundland could be extensive.

flwfHuq.png


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 33.8N 66.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 37.9N 63.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 43.2N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 47.0N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z 50.1N 59.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 25/1800Z 53.8N 58.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 26/0600Z 57.5N 58.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 27/0600Z 62.5N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 28/0600Z 65.0N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Hermine (soon)

With regard to TD-9 (just named at 5 am), this depression is forecast to quickly become a tropical storm in the southern Caribbean and to slowly strengthen over the next 2 days into Tropical Storm Hermine (or possibly Ian, if the vigorous tropical wave just off the coast of Africa is named first, which is a small possibility) as shear is forecast to diminish (NE windshear levels are fairly high right now, which is why all of the heavy convection is displaced to the west of the center), as it turns northward. And once the shear weakens the storm is likely to strengthen more significantly as it likely hits the Cayman Islands as a strong TS and then Cuba by Monday, as a strong Cat 2 hurricane.

After likely striking western Cuba on Monday, the storm is currently forecast to make landfall in SW Florida as a strong Cat 2 system on Wednesday, but that's 5 days out and we don't even know what our initial conditions are for this system right now (i.e., we don't know exactly where the storm's center will form as Hermine), so the uncertainty on the track and intensity are quite high, especially with regard to what to expect near Florida.

The storm does have the potential to be Cat 3/4 as it approaches Florida and it could go anywhere from the FL panhandle to off the east coast of FL near Miami. Given that uncertainty the whole region needs to be on alert and downstream of FL, the SE US needs to be watching this (and eventually our area as a probable remnant system assuming it's moving over land). It could even take a Charley track across FL and into the Atlantic Ocean with a potential additional landfall in the Carolinas. Way too early to "predict" anything yet, given the high uncertainties.

FI33zEO.png


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.4N 70.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 14.7N 72.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 14.8N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.5N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 17.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 18.9N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 22.6N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR CUBA
120H 28/0600Z 26.0N 82.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
 
Last edited:

RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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Thanks for the update ! I see the storm will go over Cuba. Aren’t there mountains in Cuba that many times weaken these type of storms?

There's some terrain, but western Cuba isn't very wide. Any weakening will likely be compensated for once the storm hits the bathwater that is the Gulf.
 
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