OT: Hurricane Ida taking aim at Louisiana and more as a likely major hurricane Sunday (8/29)

newell138

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Ocean City NJ via South Brunswick and Denville
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cohwx

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This morning's recon data doesn't show much evidence of intensification yet, which could be good for the Gulf coast. However, satellite presentation is improving with an eye now showing up and a nice symmetric CDO, so as NHC notes the storm may have entered a rapidly deepening phase. I would still think it will reach cat 3 but it might run out of time to get to 4, though NHC thinks there's a decent chance it will.

New recon flight is heading into the storm so we should have a pretty good indication of how this one is going to evolve within an hour or so.

Edit to add...misread the recon data, looks like it will be several hours before another flight gets to the storm.
 

MS-RU

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The eye just cleared out so rapid intensification should start shortly.
 

RU848789

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The eye just cleared out so rapid intensification should start shortly.
Completely agree. It hasn't quite strengthened as quickly as expected, but rapid intensification was generally slated for today, especially as it reaches the central GoM, which has the highest oceanic heat content in its path, plus shear is negligible, the core is becoming better organized, outflow is set up well, and the area is quite moist. So it's quite likely we'll see Ida with 120 mph winds by tonight - will be a major surprise if that doesn't happen. The NHC did lower their max wind forecast from 140 mph to 130 mph, not that that matters too much. Track hasn't really budged at all with landfall still forecast to be just SE of Morgan City, which would mean the track would be about 60 miles SW, then W of New Orleans, sparing them the worst winds and surge, but rainfall will still be torrential.
 

rubaseball78

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My business is roofing (making, not installing). We track storms very closed for 2 reasons; one, it is our business to sell roofs and two we have several plants and a lot of our suppliers in storm areas.

We have a program/service that provides estimates on roof damage from storms. This morning we received report that they expect 24,000 roofs to be replaced, 13,000 roofs to need repair and 10,000 home totally lossed.
 

e5fdny

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My Generac went online as of Monday so according to what happened when I got the snowblower serviced…we are good for at least the season. And probably longer because of what I spent. LOL
 

cohwx

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First afternoon recon flight finds 970 mb, FL winds 90 knots, sfc winds 80 knots in NE eyewall (should be strongest part of storm).

For ref, this morning (7 h ago) pressure was 985-987 mb, so deepening at about 2 mb/h. Winds should ramp up quickly now.
 

RUGuitarMan

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Apr 5, 2021
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I hope everyone in the path of the hurricane gets out safe.
First afternoon recon flight finds 970 mb, FL winds 90 knots, sfc winds 80 knots in NE eyewall (should be strongest part of storm).

For ref, this morning (7 h ago) pressure was 985-987 mb, so deepening at about 2 mb/h. Winds should ramp up quickly now.
That is a fairly big drop, if that trend continues, could be a major hurricane by late tonight.
 

RUtrumpet92

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My business is roofing (making, not installing). We track storms very closed for 2 reasons; one, it is our business to sell roofs and two we have several plants and a lot of our suppliers in storm areas.

We have a program/service that provides estimates on roof damage from storms. This morning we received report that they expect 24,000 roofs to be replaced, 13,000 roofs to need repair and 10,000 home totally lossed.
How do those projections compare to other major hurricanes? They sound big but I don't know how big.
 

RU848789

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Completely agree. It hasn't quite strengthened as quickly as expected, but rapid intensification was generally slated for today, especially as it reaches the central GoM, which has the highest oceanic heat content in its path, plus shear is negligible, the core is becoming better organized, outflow is set up well, and the area is quite moist. So it's quite likely we'll see Ida with 120 mph winds by tonight - will be a major surprise if that doesn't happen. The NHC did lower their max wind forecast from 140 mph to 130 mph, not that that matters too much. Track hasn't really budged at all with landfall still forecast to be just SE of Morgan City, which would mean the track would be about 60 miles SW, then W of New Orleans, sparing them the worst winds and surge, but rainfall will still be torrential.

Ida is looking very impressive right now, with a closed eye finally forming in the last hour, strong convection wrapped around the entire storm and an impressive vertical structure, with winds up to 105 mph (almost Cat 3, which is 111-129 mph) and pressure down to 976 mbar, so rapid intensification is underway with winds expected to be up to 125 mph by late tonight and up to at least 130 mph by tomorrow afternoon before landfall, which is expected sometime tomorrow afternoon or perhaps early evening.

Unfortunately, the forecast track was moved about 20-25 miles east of where it has been, putting landfall in the marshes and bayous just south of Houma (heading NNW towards Baton Rouge), with the track taking the storm only about 40-45 miles west of New Orleans, which means we'd only need about another 25 mile shift east to put NOLA in the eastern eyewall of Ida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles out, as the wind field has expanded considerably.

If Ida makes a direct hit on NOLA and there wasn't a mandatory evacuation because "there wasn't enough time" for contraflow (all lanes of I10 and other roads going in one direction to speed evacuations) to be set up, as the mayor has said, that will be a significant emergency planning failure, IMO, as the experts have known since at least Thursday night that Ida was going to likely be a major hurricane which could possibly strike NOLA directly. Let's hope it's not a direct hit.

The usual links and graphics are below, showing the likely catastrophic storm surge for much of the LA coast, the likely catastrophic flooding resulting from incredible rainfall of 10-15" or more in areas that are well above average in rainfall this year, and of course, the likely catastrophic wind damage near the storm's track, including inland at least 50-75 miles. And small tornadoes are likely, especially east of the storm's track, including well inland eventually. Power outages will obviously be widespread. This is a life-threatening storm and hopefully people are well-prepared.

Impacts to our area are still fairly uncertain with regard to how much rain we get from Ida's remnants and when. Best guess now is showery rains to perhaps heavy rains from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning (given how much rain we've had, some flooding is quite possible), but we're seeing a pretty good chance that any rain will be over by around noon on Thursday and hopefully we'll actually have a pleasant Thursday afternoon/evening with highs near 80F and lower humidity. That would be great for obvious reasons.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55251-hurricane-ida/page/23/

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...cast-louisiana-mississippi-alabama-gulf-coast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

bMhgAQD.png


1lmIXwC.png


dgRpxTx.png
 
Last edited:

WhiteBus

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Channel 10 Philly wasted minutes in explaining the Hurricane within their slotted time for local weather even after starting their broadcast with it. Who gives a rats ass about weather 1300 miles from here?
 

retired711

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Don't get me started, lol. For now, I'm only doing notable weather and gameday weather threads, since I enjoy doing them and I think the silent majority likes them, although sometimes it's hard to tell. Might be worth a poll to see if I'm right on that or not. Have never done a poll here - do they only allow one vote per person - if so, could be worth it. Anyone?
The only reason I come on the board is to read your weather posts. The only reason I'm posting is to make clear that I appreciate your posts. I no longer otherwise participate on the boards.
 

RU848789

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Ida is looking very impressive right now, with a closed eye finally forming in the last hour, strong convection wrapped around the entire storm and an impressive vertical structure, with winds up to 105 mph (almost Cat 3, which is 111-129 mph) and pressure down to 976 mbar, so rapid intensification is underway with winds expected to be up to 125 mph by late tonight and up to at least 130 mph by tomorrow afternoon before landfall, which is expected sometime tomorrow afternoon or perhaps early evening.

Unfortunately, the forecast track was moved about 20-25 miles east of where it has been, putting landfall in the marshes and bayous just south of Houma (heading NNW towards Baton Rouge), with the track taking the storm only about 40-45 miles west of New Orleans, which means we'd only need about another 25 mile shift east to put NOLA in the eastern eyewall of Ida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles out, as the wind field has expanded considerably.

If Ida makes a direct hit on NOLA and there wasn't a mandatory evacuation because "there wasn't enough time" for contraflow (all lanes of I10 and other roads going in one direction to speed evacuations) to be set up, as the mayor has said, that will be a significant emergency planning failure, IMO, as the experts have known since at least Thursday night that Ida was going to likely be a major hurricane which could possibly strike NOLA directly. Let's hope it's not a direct hit.

The usual links and graphics are below, showing the likely catastrophic storm surge for much of the LA coast, the likely catastrophic flooding resulting from incredible rainfall of 10-15" or more in areas that are well above average in rainfall this year, and of course, the likely catastrophic wind damage near the storm's track, including inland at least 50-75 miles. And small tornadoes are likely, especially east of the storm's track, including well inland eventually. Power outages will obviously be widespread. This is a life-threatening storm and hopefully people are well-prepared.

Impacts to our area are still fairly uncertain with regard to how much rain we get from Ida's remnants and when. Best guess now is showery rains to perhaps heavy rains from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning (given how much rain we've had, some flooding is quite possible), but we're seeing a pretty good chance that any rain will be over by around noon on Thursday and hopefully we'll actually have a pleasant Thursday afternoon/evening with highs near 80F and lower humidity. That would be great for obvious reasons.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55251-hurricane-ida/page/23/

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...cast-louisiana-mississippi-alabama-gulf-coast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

bMhgAQD.png


1lmIXwC.png


dgRpxTx.png

Interestingly, the 11 pm NHC update still has Ida at 105 mph, but is still calling for 130 mph winds in 12 hours, as the pressure has dropped a fair amount (down to 964 mbar now from 976 at 5 pm) and in the last hour or so, the eye has cleared out and the convection around the center has become deeper and more symmetric, with colder cloud tops, as Ida is starting to look more like a classic strengthening hurricane. Many pros are saying rapid intensification is likely over the next 6-12 hours, as Ida is now over the warmest GoM waters, with low shear and no dry air, including this comment from a very well respected pro: "Pretty obvious strengthening ongoing at this time with the storm crossing a warm eddy (as part of the Loop Current). Eye looking to try and clear out with a more classic look likely soon, given deep convection has wrapped around the center."

As an aside, however, this is still no Katrina, which made it to Cat 5 in the GoM, but weakened a bit to Cat 3/4 at landfall, with 125 mph winds, but a pressure of 920 mbar, which is typical for a strong Cat 4 hurricane (Ida is only at 964 mbar now, so it has a long way to go to reach Katrina's even weakened strength at landfall. Also given how long Katrina was at Cat 4 and 5 and the due north angle of approach, the surge was well over 20 feet in LA/MS (vs. max 10-15 predicted for Ida). But even if it's not Katrina (yet), it's still a potentially formidable, dangerous storm, especially if we see the strengthening that's still expected.

One more comment: the NHC track was nudged another ~10 miles east, such that the storm is now expected to only be about 35 miles west of New Orleans at NO's latitude, after coming ashore near Port Fourchon, which is almost due south of NO (storm will be moving NNW towards Baton Rouge). One more 15-20 mile nudge east and New Orleans will be in the western eyewall of the hurricane. No other major changes to things like the storm surge or rainfall forecasts from 5 pm, so not going to repeat posting those graphics.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

wPDB9wH.png
 

RUDiddy777

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Channel 10 Philly wasted minutes in explaining the Hurricane within their slotted time for local weather even after starting their broadcast with it. Who gives a rats ass about weather 1300 miles from here?

People with family there who are wondering if they’ll need to hop on a plane and drive to saved loved ones from another Katrina?
 

RutgHoops

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Ida is looking very impressive right now, with a closed eye finally forming in the last hour, strong convection wrapped around the entire storm and an impressive vertical structure, with winds up to 105 mph (almost Cat 3, which is 111-129 mph) and pressure down to 976 mbar, so rapid intensification is underway with winds expected to be up to 125 mph by late tonight and up to at least 130 mph by tomorrow afternoon before landfall, which is expected sometime tomorrow afternoon or perhaps early evening.

Unfortunately, the forecast track was moved about 20-25 miles east of where it has been, putting landfall in the marshes and bayous just south of Houma (heading NNW towards Baton Rouge), with the track taking the storm only about 40-45 miles west of New Orleans, which means we'd only need about another 25 mile shift east to put NOLA in the eastern eyewall of Ida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles out, as the wind field has expanded considerably.

If Ida makes a direct hit on NOLA and there wasn't a mandatory evacuation because "there wasn't enough time" for contraflow (all lanes of I10 and other roads going in one direction to speed evacuations) to be set up, as the mayor has said, that will be a significant emergency planning failure, IMO, as the experts have known since at least Thursday night that Ida was going to likely be a major hurricane which could possibly strike NOLA directly. Let's hope it's not a direct hit.

The usual links and graphics are below, showing the likely catastrophic storm surge for much of the LA coast, the likely catastrophic flooding resulting from incredible rainfall of 10-15" or more in areas that are well above average in rainfall this year, and of course, the likely catastrophic wind damage near the storm's track, including inland at least 50-75 miles. And small tornadoes are likely, especially east of the storm's track, including well inland eventually. Power outages will obviously be widespread. This is a life-threatening storm and hopefully people are well-prepared.

Impacts to our area are still fairly uncertain with regard to how much rain we get from Ida's remnants and when. Best guess now is showery rains to perhaps heavy rains from early Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning (given how much rain we've had, some flooding is quite possible), but we're seeing a pretty good chance that any rain will be over by around noon on Thursday and hopefully we'll actually have a pleasant Thursday afternoon/evening with highs near 80F and lower humidity. That would be great for obvious reasons.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/55251-hurricane-ida/page/23/

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...cast-louisiana-mississippi-alabama-gulf-coast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 26.2N 87.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 27.5N 88.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 30.5N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/0600Z 34.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/1800Z 35.7N 88.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1800Z 38.0N 82.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

bMhgAQD.png


1lmIXwC.png


dgRpxTx.png

Looks like it’s projected to hit LA/MS. They’ll just go to the farm store and eat a weather vane. Suck it, libs.
 

cohwx

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Interestingly, the 11 pm NHC update still has Ida at 105 mph, but is still calling for 130 mph winds in 12 hours, as the pressure has dropped a fair amount (down to 964 mbar now from 976 at 5 pm) and in the last hour or so, the eye has cleared out and the convection around the center has become deeper and more symmetric, with colder cloud tops, as Ida is starting to look more like a classic strengthening hurricane. Many pros are saying rapid intensification is likely over the next 6-12 hours, as Ida is now over the warmest GoM waters, with low shear and no dry air, including this comment from a very well respected pro: "Pretty obvious strengthening ongoing at this time with the storm crossing a warm eddy (as part of the Loop Current). Eye looking to try and clear out with a more classic look likely soon, given deep convection has wrapped around the center."

New recon data shows pressure down to about 955 mb. Peak FL winds 110 knots in SE quad. So it's probably cat 3 right now as they haven't sampled the NE quad yet. Eye well defined, deep convection all around center, I imagine this will be a 4 in the morning.
 
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WhiteBus

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Americans.
Yes and that is why there is the national news that follows the local news. I watch the local news for the local weather. Short cutting your coverage of the local weather to highlight something that won't effect my weather today is a complete disservice. Spending 90% of the allotted air time on a storm 1300 miles away and a brief run through of the 7 day at the end is not their job.
 

RU848789

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Interestingly, the 11 pm NHC update still has Ida at 105 mph, but is still calling for 130 mph winds in 12 hours, as the pressure has dropped a fair amount (down to 964 mbar now from 976 at 5 pm) and in the last hour or so, the eye has cleared out and the convection around the center has become deeper and more symmetric, with colder cloud tops, as Ida is starting to look more like a classic strengthening hurricane. Many pros are saying rapid intensification is likely over the next 6-12 hours, as Ida is now over the warmest GoM waters, with low shear and no dry air, including this comment from a very well respected pro: "Pretty obvious strengthening ongoing at this time with the storm crossing a warm eddy (as part of the Loop Current). Eye looking to try and clear out with a more classic look likely soon, given deep convection has wrapped around the center."

As an aside, however, this is still no Katrina, which made it to Cat 5 in the GoM, but weakened a bit to Cat 3/4 at landfall, with 125 mph winds, but a pressure of 920 mbar, which is typical for a strong Cat 4 hurricane (Ida is only at 964 mbar now, so it has a long way to go to reach Katrina's even weakened strength at landfall. Also given how long Katrina was at Cat 4 and 5 and the due north angle of approach, the surge was well over 20 feet in LA/MS (vs. max 10-15 predicted for Ida). But even if it's not Katrina (yet), it's still a potentially formidable, dangerous storm, especially if we see the strengthening that's still expected.

One more comment: the NHC track was nudged another ~10 miles east, such that the storm is now expected to only be about 35 miles west of New Orleans at NO's latitude, after coming ashore near Port Fourchon, which is almost due south of NO (storm will be moving NNW towards Baton Rouge). One more 15-20 mile nudge east and New Orleans will be in the western eyewall of the hurricane. No other major changes to things like the storm surge or rainfall forecasts from 5 pm, so not going to repeat posting those graphics.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 27.2N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 29.9N 90.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 31.4N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 33.1N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 34.8N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z 36.3N 86.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0000Z 38.6N 80.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

wPDB9wH.png
Worst case scenario, as feared, with catastrophic storm surge flooding, wind damage, power outages and inland flooding from rainfall imminent. Ida now a powerful Cat 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds at 946 mbar, representing a 35 mph increase and a pressure drop of 18 mbar from 11 pm to 5 am, which is nearly unprecedented. Cat 5 is possible before landfall, which is still predicted for the Port Fourchon area early this afternoon, with the storm then predicted to be close to Baton Rouge (with winds still at 80 mph!) by about midnight. Impacts are clearly not limited to the path of the storm, however, as hurricane force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the storm center, meaning they will reach New Orleans (about 40 miles east of the predicted track) and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

See the NHC discussion excerpt below for the meteorological details. Also, see the updated NHC graphics, below - unfortunately, the storm surge forecast was increased to 12-16 feet along most of the SE LA coast and 8-12' for the rest of the LA coast into SW MS, including the New Orleans area (NO proper will hopefully see no storm surge, given the rebuilt levee system), while the rainfall forecast was increased a bit, also, with widespread 10-15" amounts for SE LA and SW MS, including 15-20" amounts for New Orleans (which will still see major flooding inside the protective levees, as the pumps will be unlikely to keep up with the rain) and parts of SE LA, and 6-10" amounts for eastern LA and the southern half of MS. As mentioned before, there will also be the risk of small tornadoes near and east of the storm's track.

For our area, rainfall forecasts have increased to 2-5" for much of the region on Wednesday into early Thursday, which could lead to significant flooding given the antecedent saturated conditions in the area from recent heavy rains. Showers could extend into early afternoon, but will hopefully be over by tailgate time for most, i.e., by 2-3 pm, with nice weather after that.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ne-ida-forecast-landfall-louisiana-gulf-coast

Hurricane Ida Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

Ida has undergone some dramatic inner-core structural changes since
the previous advisory. The eye between 25,000-45,000 ft has become
circular with a diameter of about 15 nmi now, and at least two
eyewall mesocyclones have been noted rotating cyclonically around
the eyewall in both radar and high-resolution 1-minute GOES-16
satellite imagery. The result has been rapid strengthening of at
least 30 kt during the past 6 hours, along with a pressure drop of
more than 15 mb during that same time, with a 6-mb decrease having
occurred in the 1-hr period between about 0500-0600 UTC based on Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft eye dropsonde data. The
aircraft also measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level wind speed of
133 kt in the northeastern quadrant, along with a peak SFMR surface
wind speed of 116 kt. Furthermore, NWS Doppler radar velocity data
from Slidell, Louisiana, has recently been measuring velocities of
120-130 kt between 25,000-30,000 ft, which is quite rare, and
indicates that Ida is a vertically deep and intense hurricane. Ida
was initialized with 115 kt at 0600 UTC, but the 0900 UTC advisory
intensity has been increased to 120 kt based on the 133-kt
flight-level wind and the improved structure in both radar data and
satellite imagery since the 0609 UTC time of that aircraft
observation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 28.0N 89.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 29.1N 90.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR SERN LOUISIANA
24H 30/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 33.8N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 35.4N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0600Z 36.7N 85.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 38.9N 78.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

App6M9M.png


qf792Vq.png


MEXjLDL.png
 
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RU848789

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NHC now doing hourly updates and based on the latest hurricane hunter report, Ida is now up to 150 mph winds at 935 mbar, representing a 45 mph increase and a pressure drop of 29 mbar from 11 pm to 7 am, which is nearly unprecedented. Cat 5 (157 mph or more) is possible before landfall.

Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
600 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...NOAA PLANE FINDS IDA STRONGER...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IDA EXPECTED TO MAKE
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from
reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near
Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82
mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h). Another NOAA
elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a
sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 89.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
 

RUGuitarMan

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Down to 935 millibars/ 27.61 inches of Mercury. The center is about 60 miles southeast of Grand Isle. Unfortunately, Louisiana is going to get hammered by this storm.
 

Crazed_RU

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Can Someone explain why pressure of a storm like this is an important metric. Wind speed is kind of obvious as faster wind speed means more damage. Pressure, not as clear.
 

bac2therac

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Yes and that is why there is the national news that follows the local news. I watch the local news for the local weather. Short cutting your coverage of the local weather to highlight something that won't effect my weather today is a complete disservice. Spending 90% of the allotted air time on a storm 1300 miles away and a brief run through of the 7 day at the end is not their job.

Probably to save the local mets save face for blowing the call of 1-5 inches of rain for our area this weekend
 

Scarlet83

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Can Someone explain why pressure of a storm like this is an important metric. Wind speed is kind of obvious as faster wind speed means more damage. Pressure, not as clear.

I think pressure measures weather calm/ intensity. The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm. Higher pressure means calm weather.
 

LBusDoor90

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Aug 31, 2007
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Can Someone explain why pressure of a storm like this is an important metric. Wind speed is kind of obvious as faster wind speed means more damage. Pressure, not as clear.
The analogy that has worked best for me (and perhaps an oversimplification to real meteorologists) is picturing major storms with an eye as upside down bathtub drains with air instead of water rushing upward due to convection. Low pressure air (which tends to be warm and humid, especially in hurricanes and tropical storms fueled by ocean/Gulf water) rises quickly and surrounding air rushes in to fill the void it leaves. I've always thought the pressure trends are often denoted first because they are the cause of the wind speed trends you hear being discussed - the lower the pressure in the eye region, the faster the air rises, and then the faster in turn the wind rushes in to fill the void it leaves.
 

bac2therac

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The excuse will be it rained in a few spots and its hard to pinpoint but it was a pretty big failure given the amounts they threw out

Likely to cover their bases for missing last weeks 3-5 inches
 
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T2Kplus20

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The excuse will be it rained in a few spots and its hard to pinpoint but it was a pretty big failure given the amounts they threw out

Likely to cover their bases for missing last weeks 3-5 inches
Mets and models keep getting worse and worse and worse. It's actually comical how wrong they normally are.
 
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RUGuitarMan

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Can Someone explain why pressure of a storm like this is an important metric. Wind speed is kind of obvious as faster wind speed means more damage. Pressure, not as clear.
Regarding storms, barometric pressure is probably the most important metric. It’s an indicator of storm intensity. The lower the air pressure, the more intense and usually the stronger the wind velocity. High air pressure ..around 30.00 inches of.Mercury at sea level and higher usually reflects fair weather. Lower pressure usually indicates stormy weather. Anything below 28.00 inches of mercury is indicative of a very strong storm. Currently this hurricane is at 933 millibars or about 27.55 Inches of Mercury at its center. Wind blows toward low pressure, the difference in air pressure between high and low pressure (pressure gradient) creates wind velocity.