OT: Hurricane Isaias: heavy rain, high winds, and flooding in SC/NC/VA/MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/New England

Discussion in 'Rutgers Football' started by RU848789, Jul 28, 2020.

  1. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Well, as feared, TD-9 has formed in the Atlantic and is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias soon, with the forecast placing this system as a TS still in the vicinity of South Florida in about 5 days. On its currently forecasted track, Isaias will strike Puerto Rico Thursday morning as a tropical storm, so the main impacts would be flooding rains.

    If it then hits Hispaniola, that could tear the storm apart, but if it just skirts north of the island, it could maintain some strength and then head towards the Bahamas and Florida. Given how bad intensity forecasts are, interests in South Florida and even the SE US coast (and Gulf Coast if it heads across Florida) need to be watching this one closely, as sea surface temps are quite warm and intensification into a hurricane is very possible.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/174424.shtml?cone#contents

    https://www.wunderground.com/articl...forecast-atlantic-tropical-development-isaias

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. RU848789

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    Still a TD, but expected to be a TS soon, although it already has 45 mph winds. The updated track was nudged SW, sending the storm over Hispaniola, which will either kill the storm or at least greatly weaken it and that's reflected in the updated track below, which is now more of a FL Gulf track with the storm not intensifying into a hurricane, especially since it will also be very close to Cuba for some time - tough to strengthen with so much land interaction. However, the storm still needs to be watched especially if it survives past Cuba and gets closer to FL and if it gets into the GOM. For now, though, the storm is not a major threat, other than for rain.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/290253.shtml?

    [​IMG]
     
  3. RU848789

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    It took awhile, but we finally have tropical storm Isaias, which ended up forming south of Puerto Rico and won't hit the island directly with its 50 mph winds, although they'll get some heavy rains/flooding. The big question is how shredded will the storm be by crossing over the mountainous island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) tomorrow. Many storms have completely dissipated from such interactions, but many have weakened, but then restrengthened.

    The official NHC forecast is for some weakening, but that the storm will emerge intact, partly because it's much larger than most TS's, then skirt north of Cuba and head towards the Bahamas as a modest TS on Friday and then possibly strike South Florida on Saturday as a strong TS with ~65 mph winds. The problem for forecasters is the angle of approach, as Isaias will likely be heading NNW and could go anywhere from up the Gulf Coast of FL to up the center of the peninsula to along the east coast of FL to being fully offshore with minimal impact.

    Whenever a tropical system takes this angle, it means a small change in track early on can have a large impact in where it ends up, as FL is only ~125 miles wide and the track "cone of uncertainty" is almost 250 miles wide at days 3-4. We had similar problems forecasting Irma in 2017, which ended up hitting the Keys, then the Gulf Coast of FL, but threatened both coasts for a few days - see the image of the NHC track for Irma from a similar timepoint as now for Isaias, where the projection was the east coast of FL and landfall was over 100 miles west of there (a fairly small error, but big impact).

    After that, so much depends on where and when the storm emerges from Hispaniola. If it's weaker and slower, it's more likely to head towards the GOM, whereas if it's stronger and faster, it's more likely to threaten SE FL and the east coast. Much will also depend on how strong the WAR (Western Atlantic Ridge, or Bermuda High) steering currents are, as the system will be on the periphery of this high. The official forecast has the storm paralleling the FL east coast through Saturday/Sunday and then possibly making landfall in NC on Monday, although we're 5 days out from that and much could change. With regard to intensity (which models don't do well on), while there isn't much time for Isaias to strengthen between Cuba and FL, sea surface temps are quite warm and conditions will likely become more favorable for strengthening into at least a Cat 1 hurricane.

    This one even bears watching for our area, if it survives Hispaniola, as many of the longer range models bring the storm fairly close to NJ/NY/LI/New England, probably as a tropical storm, after NC, but an inland track is quite possible, which will greatly weaken any storm (but could still bring us heavy rains mid-next week), and an out-to-sea track (best case) is very possible too, with just surf impacts for us. We should know a lot more by Friday morning with regard to our area. Stay tuned.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/145151.shtml?cone#contents

    https://www.wunderground.com/articl...pical-storm-isaias-forecast-florida-caribbean

    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53557-tropical-storm-isaías/page/10/

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    3 RU848789, Jul 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
  4. Tango Two

    Tango Two Moderator
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  5. RU848789

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    Looks like Isaias survived Hispaniola, as expected, as it's just about to emerge back into the Atlantic on the northern coast of the island, with winds still 60 mph and the storm still being quite large. The 5 pm NHC advisory has nudged the track a little bit more to the east for the storms expected run up the east coast, which is good.

    The center of the forecast track is now 50+ miles off the coast of FL on Sat/Sun, then it clips the Outer Banks as a minimal hurricane (75 mph winds are the max currently forecast, although intensity forecasts are always a bit iffy) Monday evening, and goes out to sea, over 100 miles off the NJ coast on Tuesday, although it could come very close to Cape Cod (especially Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard).

    However, keep in mind that the track cone still includes all of the US east coast, so it's still possible for more significant impacts from FL to NJ to New England. If this track holds, just about everyone dodges a bullet, except possibly the Outer Banks. Stay tuned.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/300301.shtml?

    https://www.wunderground.com/articl...l-storm-isaias-forecast-florida-united-states

    [​IMG]
     
  6. T2Kplus10

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    +1
    Thanks for posting, appreciate you keeping us informed! Hopefully this brings some much needed rain to NJ.
     
  7. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    What happened to your promise not to troll weather threads if Greg came back (which I predicted very early)? This one was actually amusing, though...
     
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  8. Proud NJ Sports Fan

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    Was that a charity post, since #s was talking to himself?
     
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  9. T2Kplus10

    T2Kplus10 Hall of Famer
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    Go back and check.....it was only for the winter!
    #gameon
    :)
     
  10. Rhuarc

    Rhuarc All Conference
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    He's only interested because of his family's upcoming vacation. He'll go back to hating on you when it's over. :ThumbsUp
     
  11. Knightmoves

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    Look like a direct hit on Cape Hatteras.
     
  12. Tango Two

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  13. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    It was actually only for the rest of 2019, so you went above and beyond and even made a nice post in March hoping I got snow. I'm getting all verklempt...

     
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  14. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    Already a hurricane as of 11 PM tonight.
     
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  15. Proud NJ Sports Fan

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    How do you even pronounce that weird name?
     
  16. RU848789

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    Yeah, I was just about to post no real change at 11 pm and saw the purple "update" lettering on the NHC site, which always means breaking news. The 11 pm advisory said 60 mph winds and then the 11:40 pm update, with hurricane hunter info, has winds at 80 mph. Think they might need to redo their track/intensity projections, which looked identical to 5 pm - they said a special advisory will be issued shortly...

    Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
    1140 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2020

    ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER FINDS ISAIAS IS A HURRICANE...

    Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the
    tropical storm has strengthened to a hurricane. The maximum winds
    are estimated to be 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.

    The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Warning for
    the central and southeastern Bahamas.

    A special advisory will be issued shortly.

    SUMMARY OF 1140 PM EDT...0340 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.3N 72.1W
    ABOUT 70 MI... 110 KM ESE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES
     
  17. T2Kplus10

    T2Kplus10 Hall of Famer
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    So the forecasters screwed up again?
     
  18. e5fdny

    e5fdny Hall of Famer
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    Right in the middle of something big here on SI.

    Heavy, heavy winds. Tons of thunder and lightning and lots of rain. Sheets.
     
  19. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    So, they redid their track/intensity projections and they look almost identical to what they had at 11 pm, except with the hurricane being 5-10 mph stronger at each point, but they're not predicting much strengthening, due to SWerly shear/dry air entrainment. Let's hope so, as Isaias is about to traverse some very warm water, which might usually allow for strengthening.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. RUevolution36

    RUevolution36 All Conference
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    Maybe, if they did, it's because Trump is defunding them. No use in having a Porsche if you don't have fuel.
     
  21. RU848789

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    As mentioned last night, Isaias unexpectedly strengthened into a hurricane as of 11:40 pm, based on a hurricane hunter flight though the system. The storm currently has 75 mph winds and is forecast to strengthen a bit while make its run through the Bahamas today/tonight (going over some of the same islands hit so hard by Dorian last year), with winds forecast to reach ~90 mph or so. Keep in mind that intensity forecasts are always a bit iffy and quite a few of the on-line pro meteorologists are concerned that this storm could intensify more than being forecast over the next 24 hours as it traverses some very warm waters.

    After that, the center of the forecast track is about 30-50 miles off the coast of FL on Sat/Sun, with its closest approach looking to be from West Palm Beach to Daytona. It's then forecast to make landfall in NC somewhere between Wilmington and the Outer Banks as a minimal hurricane (75 mph winds are currently forecast at that time) Monday evening, and goes out to sea, about 75 miles off the NJ coast on Tuesday, although it could come very close to eastern LI and strike Cape Cod (especially Nantucket/Martha's Vineyard). However, keep in mind that the track cone still includes all of the US east coast, so it's still possible for more significant impacts from FL to NJ to New England. If this track holds, just about everyone dodges a bullet, except eastern NC.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/310406.shtml?
    https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53557-hurricane-isaías/page/23/

    [​IMG]
     
  22. Tango Two

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  23. Ronnie_B

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    It's uncanny how the projections have this storm hugging the coastline from Miami to Maine, only in 2020.
     
  24. waveslider

    waveslider All American
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    Hopefully it misses landfall and we get surf from it.
     
  25. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    Given how wrong they've been with the past few storms, I wouldn't be surprised if it does.
     
  26. waveslider

    waveslider All American
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    Hopefully it misses landfall and we get surf from it.
     
  27. MulletCork

    MulletCork Senior
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    "Iss--aye-ee-iss"
    Something along those lines. I'm not too talented at phonetics.
     
  28. Proud NJ Sports Fan

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    Tuesday night, eh, I'll have a 12 of Bud ready to enjoy the breeze and rain out front on the porch
     
  29. waveslider

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    Hopefully it misses landfall and we get surf from it.
     
  30. West Point Knight

    West Point Knight Heisman Winner
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    Monday: tv weather queens all up and down the east coast will be taking off their coats and rolling up their sleeves...the national pay more attention because I’m working harder gesture! :Wink:
     
  31. West Point Knight

    West Point Knight Heisman Winner
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  32. West Point Knight

    West Point Knight Heisman Winner
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  33. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    Given how wrong they've been with the past few storms, I wouldn't be surprised if it does.
     
  34. Knight Shift

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  35. Knight Shift

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  36. kcg88

    kcg88 All American
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    Three guesses as to where I'm booked for vacation next week.
     
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  37. Knight Shift

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    We are heading to Western NY - Finger Lakes. Great for us!
     
  38. Proud NJ Sports Fan

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  39. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Hearing it is better - I didn't realize the elision involved in pronunciation, such that it's almost like 3 syllables, not 4.

     
  40. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    That's the most likely outcome - I'll be heading down the Shore to see it if it comes close enough, like I do with almost any tropical system that comes close.
     
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  41. bac2therac

    bac2therac Legend
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    what stupid idiot had to name it that
     
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  42. RU848789

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    I think they put @T2Kplus10 in charge of naming this year... :>)
     
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