OT: Hurricane Isaias: heavy rain, high winds, and flooding in SC/NC/VA/MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/New England
- Thread starter RU848789
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Isaias about to make landfall along the SC/NC border, which really means between Myrtle Beach and Bald Head Island, as the eye looks to be 30-40 miles across. Conditions look really bad there, with significant storm surges, high winds, heavy rain and a few tornadoes reported inland a bit in NC.
Couple of trees down in Metuchen and power is out in part of town. You still don't understand and never will understand the incredible uncertainty with where and when convective t-storms hit. It was not a "bust" - the best the mesoscale models can do is tell us that conditions are ripe for t-storms in a general area over a general time. Even 100 years from now, I'd guess that there will be no way to exactly predict when/where t-storms hit - simply way too much energy (~10X as much as winter storms), with way too much spatial/temporal variability, not to mention the effects of chaos with numerical modeling on a very fine grid.
Jim Cantore on Wrightsville Beach, NC on live on the Weather Channel right now. We used to live right near WB in the 1990s--great spot and beaches just East of Wilmington.
Center is an hour or less away from landfall. Moving at 22 mph. 30 minutes until center comes ashore.
Center is an hour or less away from landfall. Moving at 22 mph. 30 minutes until center comes ashore.
Wow. 91 mph gust at Oak Island NC, just east of the SC border...
Holden Beach estimated to be landfall. Jim Cantore looks like he might blow away.
Pretty much the same forecast track (maybe nudged 5-10 miles to the east, right up the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC) and intensity (70-75 mph at landfall in NE SC to ~60 mph in our area). Highlights below and some graphics/links.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
- The one change in this forecast is a steeper gradient of rainfall from SE to NW with 1-2" along the coast, 2-4" from the coast to 95, and 3-6" from 95 to points well NW of 95.
- Expecting the worst winds from about 2-6 pm in CNJ (earlier to the south/later to the north), as the storm's center approaches our area.
- Forecast calls for 50-55 mph sustained and gusts up to 70 mph along/near the coast and ~40 mph sustained with gusts to 55 mph inland (from just SE of 95 to all points NW of there).
- Coastal flooding should be minor in most locations, but perhaps moderate in Delaware/Chesapeake Bays.
- Still a low chance of isolated small tornadoes to the SE of the storm's track, i.e., along and SE of the 95 corridor.
https://www.facebook.com/NWSMountHolly/
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-storm-isaias-forecast-mid-atlantic-northeast
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030243.shtml?
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53557-tropical-storm-isaías/page/51/
11 pm NHC advisory. Center of Isaias has not quite made landfall yet, but will in the next 20-30 minutes, although the northern eyewall is on shore. Storm is still at 85 mph and forecast track/intensity hasn't really changed significantly, especially north of the NC/VA border, i.e., for us. Storm has now sped up to 22 mph, a little faster than expected.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0300Z 33.8N 78.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 37.0N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 42.0N 73.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 46.8N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 68.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 06/1200Z 52.9N 66.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030243.shtml?
We have landfall. Cantore is actually getting hammered in the NE part of the eyewall in Wrightsville Beach. Still love his reports.
Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).
A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140
km/h).
A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Hurricane Isaias Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1115 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020
Doppler radar imagery and surface observations indicate that eye of
Hurricane Isaias made landfall in southern North Carolina
around 1110 PM EDT (0310 UTC) near Ocean Isle Beach, with maximum
sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h).
A weather station at Oak Island, North Carolina, recently reported
sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140
km/h).
A data buoy near the coast of North Carolina has recently reported
a minimum pressure of 988 MB (29.18 inches).
SUMMARY OF 1115 PM EDT...0315 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 78.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
11:39pm...........
2-3 Tornado warnings over last few hours.
On-and-off heavy rain w/ thunder.... a few big gusts... but overall - so far so good.....
Eye wall looks like it'll pass by about 10 miles to the west.....
2-3 Tornado warnings over last few hours.
On-and-off heavy rain w/ thunder.... a few big gusts... but overall - so far so good.....
Eye wall looks like it'll pass by about 10 miles to the west.....
Some pretty bad storm surge in Ocean Isle; pic from when they were in the eye...
Storm is really moving at 28MPH , which the Weather channel is saying will now give winds less time to slow down when it hits NJ
Wow. 91 mph gust at Oak Island NC, just east of the SC border...
Thats basically front and center where my brother just moved, (Supply, NC) right on the intercoastal. He said they had some serious flooding last night and lots of debris blowing past the house.
So far not a drop of rain down here in Ocean City, looks like the majority of the storm has moved inland and north.
On plus side, it should be out of here by early afternoon.
NWS really cut down the rain totals here along the shore near Manasquan, as well as inland including Allentown, PA.
on the plus side the boardwalk was empty this morning for my AM bike ride
He also ordered to brine the roads. You know, just in case.
Nice, just after my workday wraps up. FYI, forecast winds in our area down to only 32 mph. Summer T-storm is normally worse.
The Delaware River is expected to flood downtown Trenton and Route 29 that is why Trenton closed
Why is it funny? Hurricanes and tropical storms are dynamic events and hard to predict. There are multiple tornado warnings in Delaware, NJ and Eastern Pennsylvania. Is that funny?
Looking at the radar, looks like the majority of the rain is West of NJ.
I am a little concerned about the winds later, I'd rather get the heavy rain
Looks like Baltimore is getting deluged
I am a little concerned about the winds later, I'd rather get the heavy rain
Looks like Baltimore is getting deluged
TORNADO WARNING
heading towards Sea Isle City and Ocean City area, right now.
Just saw this on the Weather Channel
Coming from the ocean, be safe folks.
heading towards Sea Isle City and Ocean City area, right now.
Just saw this on the Weather Channel
Coming from the ocean, be safe folks.
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