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OT: Hurricane Isaias: heavy rain, high winds, and flooding in SC/NC/VA/MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/New England

I'd say wait until Wednesday and do your gutter cleaning Tuesday - it'll be a lot more fun in the wind/rain...
Supposed to head to Canandaigua, NY on Tuesday by car from Belmar area.
It appears from the Rochester, NY graphic from the NWS that the fringes of this storm will impact northwestern NY. We had been planning on leaving around noon on Tuesday, heading up the Parkway/287N/78 West and through Scranton to Binghamton. Should we leave earlier to avoid heavy rain?

Plotter.php
 
Supposed to head to Canandaigua, NY on Tuesday by car from Belmar area.
It appears from the Rochester, NY graphic from the NWS that the fringes of this storm will impact northwestern NY. We had been planning on leaving around noon on Tuesday, heading up the Parkway/287N/78 West and through Scranton to Binghamton. Should we leave earlier to avoid heavy rain?

Plotter.php

Your destination isn't the issue. Unless you leave Monday, you're unlikely to avoid some heavy rain bouts during your entire drive on Tuesday from the shore through at least about Binghamton.
 
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One thing I probably should've highlighted a bit more this morning is that the track was nudged 10-15 miles east, further off the coast of FL, but that didn't change the track much from SC/NC northward; in addition, there was a bit of a move further east in the last few hours. Right now the storm is about 30 miles off the coast of about Stuart, FL, and is looking unlikely to approach closer than 20 miles off the FL coast (around Cape Canaveral) - this has also helped FL have less impacts - they really dodged a major bullet relative to what things could've been like if the storm evolved in a little bit differently. Good for them - they deserved the break with such a serious COVID outbreak going on.
 
Brief update. Isaias weakened a little bit more to 65 mph winds and is now not forecast to regain hurricane strength during its trek up the Florida coast. Other than that, no real change in the forecast track, at all (apart from it being nudged 10-15 miles east, further off the coast of FL, but which didn't change the track much from SC/NC northward), and the intensity from about SC through New England is about the same, with 60 mph winds at landfall, somewhere between Charleston and the SC/NC border Monday night, weakening to about 45-50 mph winds as it runs just inland of the coast through DE and NJ (and going right over NYC).

This doesn't mean sustained 45-50 mph winds for us the whole time, but that there will likely be winds of that strength, at times, when the storm center reaches our area Tuesday evening, especially along the coast (less friction over the water); there could also be wind gusts of 30-40 mph in squalls/heavy showers before then. 2-4" rains for most of us in the Philly-NJ-NYC region will be common on Tuesday with some isolated 4-6" amounts (can't predict where). For FL, with the precip being mostly east of the low level storm center, it's possible most of the FL coast won't see that much rain or wind (as the SWerly shear is displacing the mid-upper level circulation and precip to the east, i.e., offshore. Once the storm gets to the Carolinas, this effect should go away and there should be plenty of precip to the NW of the storm track.

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The 5 pm NHC update is out and apart from a slight strengthening to 70 mph, there are no substantial changes to the track, the intensity or the impacts (especially rainfall forecasts) from FL to Maine, so I'm just going to include the updated maps.

It's gonna be pretty wet here on Tuesday with 2-4" of rain for everyone and up to 6" in places where the heaviest bands set up (hard to predict that); coastal flooding still looks to be mostly minor, although the NWS does mention a chance for moderate coastal flooding in some locations (not pinpointed yet).

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The 5 pm NHC update is out and apart from a slight strengthening to 70 mph, there are no substantial changes to the track, the intensity or the impacts (especially rainfall forecasts) from FL to Maine, so I'm just going to include the updated maps.

It's gonna be pretty wet here on Tuesday with 2-4" of rain for everyone and up to 6" in places where the heaviest bands set up (hard to predict that); coastal flooding still looks to be mostly minor, although the NWS does mention a chance for moderate coastal flooding in some locations (not pinpointed yet).

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vQL7dgH.png

As of 11 pm, still a 70 mph tropical storm with almost the exact same forecast track/intensity as earlier today, so not going to repeat all of that. The interesting observation is that the SWerly shear has finally relaxed somewhat, allowing the convection, which had all been displaced to the east of the low level circulation center (such that <1/4" rain fell over most of FL from Miami to Cape Canaveral), to start moving back west and it's now trying to wrap around the storm at mid and upper levels again.

That, combined with the storm center now being 40-50 miles off the FL coast and starting to track further offshore towards the Carolinas (meaning less land interaction), over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, would mean that the storm will likely regain some strength becoming a hurricane again. I'd say it's at least a 50/50 chance we'll have a Cat 1 hurricane making landfall somewhere within 20-30 miles of the SC/NC border. That's also why the NHC has hurricane watches up for coastal SC/NC.

No real change in the forecast for our area here, except for the track now being about 10 miles further east than earlier today (a very minor shift). Thought it was really interesting to see a NHC track point on the map less than 20 miles from my house at 8 pm Tuesday, approximately 2 miles north of the tip of Sandy Hook, after traveling a few miles inland of the Parkway from just west of Cape May to that point - and after that, the storm would hit Brighton Beach and head through Brooklyn and Queens.

Winds are forecast to be in the 45-50 mph range for most of the area Tuesday early evening, so a few downed trees and power outages are possible, and rains of 2-4" with some areas up to 6" (especially NW of 95) are still expected, so some flooding is likely. The WPC rainfall map is showing a bit more rain for our area now. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected for NJ/NY, but isolated moderate coastal flooding is possible.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/035430.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-isaias-forecast-florida-carolinas-east-coast
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53557-tropical-storm-isaías/page/45/

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Hoboken isn't allowing anyone to drive from 8am Tuesday through 8am Wednesday except for essential services. Makes sense with how bad the flooding gets but not looking forward to the fun of walking my kid to camp in the storm.
 
Hoboken isn't allowing anyone to drive from 8am Tuesday through 8am Wednesday except for essential services. Makes sense with how bad the flooding gets but not looking forward to the fun of walking my kid to camp in the storm.
are they even going to have camp?
 
The Tropical Storm Watch has been converted to a Warning and expanded farther inland. Tropical storm force winds of at least 39 mph with higher gusts are expected to impact areas as far inland as the Philly metro, I-95 corridor, and NW NJ Tues morning-afternoon. Take precautions now to protect yourself and your property from strong winds and heavy flooding rains. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected along all coastal areas

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Tropical Storm #Isaias 11a 8/3 Advisory: Isaias Forecast to Make Landfall Tonight as a Hurricane in the Carolinas. Expected to Bring Strong Winds and Heavy Rainfall From the Eastern Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic Coast Tonight and Tuesday. Strongest winds to right of storm; heaviest rain to left of center.

117161955_3297215970321966_8542887538736349634_n.png
 
Tropical Storm Isaias Update
Monday, August 3

Heavy rain and gusty winds resulting from Tropical Storm Isaias are forecast for Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is posted for coastal waters, Cape May, Atlantic, southeast Burlington, Ocean, Cumberland, Monmouth, Middlesex, Essex, Union, eastern Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson Counties. A Flash Flood Watch is posted statewide Tuesday. Winds may gust 39 to 70 mph or higher. Rain may total 2” to 4” with amounts over 6” possible.

Impacts to New Jersey
Primary impacts are forecast for Tuesday. Heavy rainfall may result in localized flooding in urban areas, low-lying places, locations with poor drainage, roadways, waterways, and where rainfall is heaviest. High winds and gusts may cause power outages and tree damage. Secure items outdoors that may be susceptible to wind gusts. Monitor local weather forecasts today for updates.

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Hoboken isn't allowing anyone to drive from 8am Tuesday through 8am Wednesday except for essential services. Makes sense with how bad the flooding gets but not looking forward to the fun of walking my kid to camp in the storm.

Smart move, JC should do it over by me as well (SoHo West area as you're coming into town from 78/1-9). Where's your kid going, to Ian's pool hall? Great place for a kid's day camp!
 
As of 11 pm, still a 70 mph tropical storm with almost the exact same forecast track/intensity as earlier today, so not going to repeat all of that. The interesting observation is that the SWerly shear has finally relaxed somewhat, allowing the convection, which had all been displaced to the east of the low level circulation center (such that <1/4" rain fell over most of FL from Miami to Cape Canaveral), to start moving back west and it's now trying to wrap around the storm at mid and upper levels again.

That, combined with the storm center now being 40-50 miles off the FL coast and starting to track further offshore towards the Carolinas (meaning less land interaction), over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, would mean that the storm will likely regain some strength becoming a hurricane again. I'd say it's at least a 50/50 chance we'll have a Cat 1 hurricane making landfall somewhere within 20-30 miles of the SC/NC border. That's also why the NHC has hurricane watches up for coastal SC/NC.

No real change in the forecast for our area here, except for the track now being about 10 miles further east than earlier today (a very minor shift). Thought it was really interesting to see a NHC track point on the map less than 20 miles from my house at 8 pm Tuesday, approximately 2 miles north of the tip of Sandy Hook, after traveling a few miles inland of the Parkway from just west of Cape May to that point - and after that, the storm would hit Brighton Beach and head through Brooklyn and Queens.

Winds are forecast to be in the 45-50 mph range for most of the area Tuesday early evening, so a few downed trees and power outages are possible, and rains of 2-4" with some areas up to 6" (especially NW of 95) are still expected, so some flooding is likely. The WPC rainfall map is showing a bit more rain for our area now. Mostly minor coastal flooding is expected for NJ/NY, but isolated moderate coastal flooding is possible.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/035430.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-isaias-forecast-florida-carolinas-east-coast
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53557-tropical-storm-isaías/page/45/

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Some changes in the NHC forecast and not for the better; see the NWS-Philly sections of the forecast discussion below, including the hydrology and coastal flooding discussions; the usual links and graphics are below, also.

The forecast is now for the storm to arrive several hours earlier in the NJ area, as the center is forecast to reach CNJ by around 2 pm instead of 8 pm and the track has moved inland about 20-30 miles for our area, i.e., it will be along the NJ TPK in SNJ and about 10-20 miles W of the TPK north of about Trenton. The earlier arrival is part of why the storm is expected to be stronger than originally forecast, i.e., instead of generally ~50 mph winds, the forecast is for ~60 mph winds, meaning sustained winds could easily be 40-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph near the coast and gusts to 50-55 mph inland (as per the NWS discussion). Also, isolated small tornadoes are possible, especially east of the storm track from SC to Maine.

In addition, the forecast is for 3-6" of rain for the area (starting late tonight through Tuesday), especially along and NW of the 95 corridor, as more rain typically falls NW of a storm track for a tropical system that is transitioning to an extratropical system, as has been mentioned before (unlike in FL, where most of the precip was east of the storm track); rainfall amounts are likely to be more like 2-4" SE of 95 to the coast. This means significant urban/stream flooding is likely and with saturated soils and increased winds, the likelihood of downed trees and power outages is greater. Coastal flooding in our area is forecast to be mostly minor (a fast moving storm helps with that) with some locations seeing moderate levels (this is nowhere near Sandy levels or even Irene levels, but still, any coastal flooding can be dangerous).

Further south, Isaias is now forecast to strengthen a bit over the next 12 hours to a 75 mph Cat 1 hurricane, right before landfall this evening, somewhere between Charleston and the SC/NC border (this is also a little bit NW of where landfall was being forecast yesterday). And even if there is no landfall in Charleston, the storm will likely be only 10-20 miles offshore, with the eyewall still likely to be on-shore with hurricane force gusts and coastal flooding likely, as well as 3-6" of rains. Similar conditions are expected for much of NE SC and eastern/central NC/VA, with the storm still packing 65-70 mph winds and bringing 3-6" of rain. The heaviest rains are now forecast to be from DC to Baltimore (6-10").

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030243.shtml?
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ing-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast-east-coast
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/53557-tropical-storm-isaías/page/49/
https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1145 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Tuesday...Tropical Storm Isaias will be speeding quickly northward
by early Tuesday in response to the aforementioned jet streak. The
cyclone will likely be undergoing an extratropical transition as it
moves from the Carolinas on Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday. Important to note though, this may not actually weaken the
storm and it may even gain strength from the baroclinic support as
indicated by the latest ECMWF model run. The strong divergence aloft
will promote an enhancement of convection associated with the system
and support at least a maintenance of its strength. As far as the
track and timing, there isn`t been a big change in the forecast
track with this update but the trend with guidance has been for a
slightly faster timing. As we are getting closer to the arrival of
this system, confidence is growing in a track that takes the system
NE across the CWA. However even at this time range it`s important to
not focus on the exact track but rather the potential impacts. It
appears the greatest impacts will occur during much of the day
Tuesday, particularly late morning and through the evening hours
before the storm lifts northeast out of the area.

Multiple hazards are becoming likely with Isaias including, but not
limited to, fresh water flooding, coastal flooding/storm surge,
strong winds and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest
precipitation amounts are forecast to fall right along and just
west of the urban and I-95 corridor with 3- 6" of rain with
locally higher amounts possible. This will lead to a flash
flooding threat, especially for the more urbanized areas and
portions of Berks County that saw an excessive amount of rain
Sunday morning. In fact the flooding has the potential to be
widespread and significant. We also have growing concerns that
widespread damaging winds may be an issue. Again, the system
will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics but
because of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into
this could actually strengthen it. Winds will initially be from
the E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of
40+ mph will be possible along the coast with gusts potentially
reaching over 60 mph here. Farther N/W towards the I-95
corridor, widespread gusts of 45 to 55+ mph are becoming
increasingly likely. The upshot is that there could be fairly
extensive impacts potentially including widespread power
outages. These impacts may be exacerbated by the rainfall
loosening the ground soil. Coastal flooding and/or storm surge
will be directly dependent on the exact timing and track of the
system and this is further described in the section below.
Finally, with a favored track near the coast or just inland,
this will set up very strong low level shear just ahead of and
east of the storm and this could cause a spin up of a few
tornadoes Tuesday afternoon. The most favored areas for this are
near and S/E of the I-95 corridor.

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydro concerns will begin as early as this evening as shower/storms
develop across the area ahead of Isaias. Any of these will be
capable of producing very heavy rain with at least localized flash
flooding possible. The heaviest, steadiest rain with the storm will
arrive later tonight through Tuesday. More widespread flash flooding
will be an increasing threat by this time. Most susecptible
areas will be near and N/W of the I-95 corridor especially
since places such as in Berks County have received so much
rainfall recently. With Isaias, 3 to 6 inches of rain, with
locally higher amounts are expected. Therefore, the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect as again, flooding could be widespread
and significant.

In addition to flash flooding, river flooding is also becoming an
increasing threat especially in portions of southeastern
Pennsylvania which have already been affected by the earlier rounds
of heavy rain.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood watch remains in effect for the eastern shore of
Chesapeake Bay in northeast Maryland. There remains considerable
uncertainty regarding the timing and exact track of Isaias and
its ultimate impacts on Chesapeake Bay. Models remain fairly
modest with forecast water levels, but this is a common bias in
these regimes, with guidance often performing quite poorly (and
much too low). We suspect surge associated with Isaias will
likely lead to minor to potentially moderate flooding Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night, with potential for large
deviations from the timing of high astronomical tide. We decided
to leave a large buffer on either side of the time of high tide
for this reason.

Isaias will likely accelerate as it moves through the region on
Tuesday. This tends to limit coastal flooding impacts in our
area, as the duration of onshore flow will be limited. However,
models are trending a little stronger with the low (and the
associated onshore flow), which is worrisome. The stronger flow
may compensate for the short duration. Furthermore, though
current forecasts would suggest the strongest surge would occur
out of phase with astronomical high tide, uncertainty in the
timing suggests this is not guaranteed. For these reasons,
suspect minor coastal flooding will be possible along the
Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, with isolated
moderate flooding possible, especially in northern New Jersey.

For Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, a few factors
lead to more elevated concerns. First, a strong southeast fetch
will occur in advance of Isaias, which is favorable for coastal flooding
in these areas. Second, the timing of high tide more closely
aligns with the strongest forecast surge. Third, for the tidal
Delaware River, freshwater runoff from anticipated heavy
rainfall may exacerbate tidal flooding. Have increased forecast
water levels in these areas on Tuesday, with at least minor
flooding a possibility.

edit: changed title from: "OT: TS Isaias finally forms: Bahamas, FL, GOM and East Coast need to watch this" to current title.
 
Last edited:
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Near hurricane force wind is expected directly east of the center of #isaias as it moves through the area. Notice the sharp cutoff to the west which will have the opposite issue: heavy rain and flash flooding. West of center = heavy rain/flooding | East of center = strong wind and power outages

117166814_3297287030314860_2223709130910382776_n.png
 
Some changes in the NHC forecast and not for the better; see the NWS-Philly sections of the forecast discussion below, including the hydrology and coastal flooding discussions; the usual links and graphics are below, also.

The forecast is now for the storm to arrive several hours earlier in the NJ area, as the center is forecast to reach CNJ by around 2 pm instead of 8 pm and the track has moved inland about 20-30 miles for our area, i.e., it will be along the NJ TPK in SNJ and about 10-20 miles W of the TPK north of about Trenton. The earlier arrival is part of why the storm is expected to be stronger than originally forecast, i.e., instead of generally ~50 mph winds, the forecast is for ~60 mph winds, meaning sustained winds could easily be 40-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph near the coast and gusts to 50-55 mph inland (as per the NWS discussion). Also, isolated small tornadoes are possible, especially east of the storm track from SC to Maine.

In addition, the forecast is for 3-6" of rain for the area (starting late tonight through Tuesday), especially along and NW of the 95 corridor, as more rain typically falls NW of a storm track for a tropical system that is transitioning to an extratropical system, as has been mentioned before (unlike in FL, where most of the precip was east of the storm track); rainfall amounts are likely to be more like 2-4" SE of 95 to the coast. This means significant urban/stream flooding is likely and with saturated soils and increased winds, the likelihood of downed trees and power outages is greater. Coastal flooding in our area is forecast to be mostly minor (a fast moving storm helps with that) with some locations seeing moderate levels (this is nowhere near Sandy levels or even Irene levels, but still, any coastal flooding can be dangerous).

Further south, Isaias is now forecast to strengthen a bit over the next 12 hours to a 75 mph Cat 1 hurricane, right before landfall this evening, somewhere between Charleston and the SC/NC border (this is also a little bit NW of where landfall was being forecast yesterday). And even if there is no landfall in Charleston, the storm will likely be only 10-20 miles offshore, with the eyewall still likely to be on-shore with hurricane force gusts and coastal flooding likely, as well as 3-6" of rains. Similar conditions are expected for much of NE SC and eastern/central NC/VA, with the storm still packing 65-70 mph winds and bringing 3-6" of rain. The heaviest rains are now forecast to be from DC to Baltimore (6-10").

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030243.shtml?
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...ing-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast-east-coast

CkWynq6.png


rHaCpR0.png


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1145 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

Tuesday...Tropical Storm Isaias will be speeding quickly northward
by early Tuesday in response to the aforementioned jet streak. The
cyclone will likely be undergoing an extratropical transition as it
moves from the Carolinas on Monday toward the Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday. Important to note though, this may not actually weaken the
storm and it may even gain strength from the baroclinic support as
indicated by the latest ECMWF model run. The strong divergence aloft
will promote an enhancement of convection associated with the system
and support at least a maintenance of its strength. As far as the
track and timing, there isn`t been a big change in the forecast
track with this update but the trend with guidance has been for a
slightly faster timing. As we are getting closer to the arrival of
this system, confidence is growing in a track that takes the system
NE across the CWA. However even at this time range it`s important to
not focus on the exact track but rather the potential impacts. It
appears the greatest impacts will occur during much of the day
Tuesday, particularly late morning and through the evening hours
before the storm lifts northeast out of the area.

Multiple hazards are becoming likely with Isaias including, but not
limited to, fresh water flooding, coastal flooding/storm surge,
strong winds and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest
precipitation amounts are forecast to fall right along and just
west of the urban and I-95 corridor with 3- 6" of rain with
locally higher amounts possible. This will lead to a flash
flooding threat, especially for the more urbanized areas and
portions of Berks County that saw an excessive amount of rain
Sunday morning. In fact the flooding has the potential to be
widespread and significant. We also have growing concerns that
widespread damaging winds may be an issue. Again, the system
will be starting to lose its tropical characteristics but
because of the strong baroclinic zone it will be moving into
this could actually strengthen it. Winds will initially be from
the E/SE then shift to NW behind the system. Sustained winds of
40+ mph will be possible along the coast with gusts potentially
reaching over 60 mph here. Farther N/W towards the I-95
corridor, widespread gusts of 45 to 55+ mph are becoming
increasingly likely. The upshot is that there could be fairly
extensive impacts potentially including widespread power
outages. These impacts may be exacerbated by the rainfall
loosening the ground soil. Coastal flooding and/or storm surge
will be directly dependent on the exact timing and track of the
system and this is further described in the section below.
Finally, with a favored track near the coast or just inland,
this will set up very strong low level shear just ahead of and
east of the storm and this could cause a spin up of a few
tornadoes Tuesday afternoon. The most favored areas for this are
near and S/E of the I-95 corridor.

.HYDROLOGY...
Hydro concerns will begin as early as this evening as shower/storms
develop across the area ahead of Isaias. Any of these will be
capable of producing very heavy rain with at least localized flash
flooding possible. The heaviest, steadiest rain with the storm will
arrive later tonight through Tuesday. More widespread flash flooding
will be an increasing threat by this time. Most susecptible
areas will be near and N/W of the I-95 corridor especially
since places such as in Berks County have received so much
rainfall recently. With Isaias, 3 to 6 inches of rain, with
locally higher amounts are expected. Therefore, the Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect as again, flooding could be widespread
and significant.

In addition to flash flooding, river flooding is also becoming an
increasing threat especially in portions of southeastern
Pennsylvania which have already been affected by the earlier rounds
of heavy rain.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A coastal flood watch remains in effect for the eastern shore of
Chesapeake Bay in northeast Maryland. There remains considerable
uncertainty regarding the timing and exact track of Isaias and
its ultimate impacts on Chesapeake Bay. Models remain fairly
modest with forecast water levels, but this is a common bias in
these regimes, with guidance often performing quite poorly (and
much too low). We suspect surge associated with Isaias will
likely lead to minor to potentially moderate flooding Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night, with potential for large
deviations from the timing of high astronomical tide. We decided
to leave a large buffer on either side of the time of high tide
for this reason.

Isaias will likely accelerate as it moves through the region on
Tuesday. This tends to limit coastal flooding impacts in our
area, as the duration of onshore flow will be limited. However,
models are trending a little stronger with the low (and the
associated onshore flow), which is worrisome. The stronger flow
may compensate for the short duration. Furthermore, though
current forecasts would suggest the strongest surge would occur
out of phase with astronomical high tide, uncertainty in the
timing suggests this is not guaranteed. For these reasons,
suspect minor coastal flooding will be possible along the
Atlantic coasts of New Jersey and Delaware, with isolated
moderate flooding possible, especially in northern New Jersey.

For Delaware Bay and the tidal Delaware River, a few factors
lead to more elevated concerns. First, a strong southeast fetch
will occur in advance of Isaias, which is favorable for coastal flooding
in these areas. Second, the timing of high tide more closely
aligns with the strongest forecast surge. Third, for the tidal
Delaware River, freshwater runoff from anticipated heavy
rainfall may exacerbate tidal flooding. Have increased forecast
water levels in these areas on Tuesday, with at least minor
flooding a possibility.

edit: changed title from: "OT: TS Isaias finally forms: Bahamas, FL, GOM and East Coast need to watch this" to current title.

"as the center is forecast to reach CNJ by around 2 pm" So, Central NJ exists!

For our road trip tomorrow (Tuesday), Up the GS parkway to 287 North, to 78, through the Poconos towards Binghamton--do you have an opinion on whether leaving later in the day (after 6 p.m.) versus early tomorrow morning (before 8 a.m.)? I tend to think waiting until later to the early evening may be a better option?
 
"as the center is forecast to reach CNJ by around 2 pm" So, Central NJ exists!

For our road trip tomorrow (Tuesday), Up the GS parkway to 287 North, to 78, through the Poconos towards Binghamton--do you have an opinion on whether leaving later in the day (after 6 p.m.) versus early tomorrow morning (before 8 a.m.)? I tend to think waiting until later to the early evening may be a better option?

Maybe if you left before 5 am you might only get moderate rain with some heavier showers, but any time after that would be crazy, IMO, and any time from 12-6 pm would be the worst. If you could hold off unitl after 11 pm tomorrow, things would be starting to wind down a bit and the worst of the winds would be over, but there will still be some heavy rains. Does it have to be tomorrow?
 
Maybe if you left before 5 am you might only get moderate rain with some heavier showers, but any time after that would be crazy, IMO, and any time from 12-6 pm would be the worst. If you could hold off unitl after 11 pm tomorrow, things would be starting to wind down a bit and the worst of the winds would be over, but there will still be some heavy rains. Does it have to be tomorrow?
Yeah, it sort of has to be tomorrow (wishy-washy enough?-LOL). We have a house reserved, available at 3 p.m. in Canandaigua, NY. Leaving at 5 a.m. would be too early and crazy for us. I think we will chance it and leave around 5-6 p.m., and monitor conditions from our leaving point up through the Poconos area to see if there are any major problems.
 
Yeah, it sort of has to be tomorrow (wishy-washy enough?-LOL). We have a house reserved, available at 3 p.m. in Canandaigua, NY. Leaving at 5 a.m. would be too early and crazy for us. I think we will chance it and leave around 5-6 p.m., and monitor conditions from our leaving point up through the Poconos area to see if there are any major problems.

Maybe look at the local NWS forecast before leaving at 5-6 pm. The graphic is for Edison, which will take you an hour to get to in the conditions tomorrow. Do you really want to drive in 50 mph wind gusts and biblical rainfall? At least try to avoid the winds by leaving before about 10 am or after 7 pm.

113999582_10219745445300655_6651347382891220104_n.jpg
 
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I live in DC, flying to Rochester on Wednesday night. Should I expect issues?
 
Maybe look at the local NWS forecast before leaving at 5-6 pm. The graphic is for Edison, which will take you an hour to get to in the conditions tomorrow. Do you really want to drive in 50 mph wind gusts and biblical rainfall? At least try to avoid the winds by leaving before about 10 am or after 7 pm.

113999582_10219745445300655_6651347382891220104_n.jpg
7 p.m. could work too. Will play it by ear.
 
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