OT: Jersey Shore Real Estate Market Advice Needed
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I have been looking down that way for a while. Lots of good towns. It’s funny, being from Bergen co…all the prices seem low. Lol
Avalon though, it is untouchable. I can get a great home almost anywhere on the water for between 800-900k. But not pulling the trigger as they are over priced even if I can afford. But Avalon- you have to be planning on 1.5 + just to start.
we have a class system here in OC, its like India
1) multiple generations born and raised
2) born and raised
3) relocated as a child and went to school here
4) relocated as an adult
5) own a summer house and spend the entire summer here (Sholocals)
6) own a summer house and rent it out
7) shoobie
we purchased our house here in 2009, its almost 100 years old, built in 1923. I put about $100K into it over the years and I have had people driving down my street offering 3x what we paid. Unfortunately there is no where to go, so no point in selling especially since I have no plans on ever leaving this town.
Parents bought a place in Brigantine 34 years ago. My wife and I grabbed a foreclosure 5 years ago, knocked it down and built a new home 2 years ago. We got very lucky because just when Covid hit we were laying sod so the pricing never affected us. Same as other shore towns prices are going thru the roof. People are buying homes for 500-600k. Tearing them down and building triple deckers for 1m. Not sure where all this money is coming from, especially most of them being 2nd homes.
We call people who wear shoes on the beach Shoobies LOL but the term actually comes from people who used to carry thier lunch to the beach in a shoe box back in the day.
OC is a unique shore town with a very large permanent resident population - 12k'ish. That's crazy big! OC is pretty much in a separate category of shore towns. We go to OC all the time and park by the high school. This place is bigger than most HS in Somerset County! LOL. Avalon and SH pop combined is only about 2k.
Lots of love for OC. Special shout out to Piccini! :)
If you want a single family home in Avalon or SH it's 1.5m for a tear down. So in reality you are talking 2m+. Except for the northern part of Avalon, the island is pretty narrow and gets more so as you go south.
I think shore prices will continue to go up. Maybe not at same levels but we will be higher next year.
Look at the levels of the stock market. Lotta wealth has been created. Rates are low. Easy to borrow. Wealthy are even buying multiple beach homes. Limited inventory
with WFH more people want to live down shore.
You need a big correction in stock market that stays down for a significant period to get shore prices to correct. Otherwise it ain't happening.
Bonuses were huge on wall street and set to be good again this year. Lotta money to be spent on property
Look at the levels of the stock market. Lotta wealth has been created. Rates are low. Easy to borrow. Wealthy are even buying multiple beach homes. Limited inventory
with WFH more people want to live down shore.
You need a big correction in stock market that stays down for a significant period to get shore prices to correct. Otherwise it ain't happening.
Bonuses were huge on wall street and set to be good again this year. Lotta money to be spent on property
We looked at a house in Barnegat Bay right on the bay- great property but the house would have needed 200k or more to be up to our standards. Empty lot next to it we asked about and found out the guy on the other side of the street- who faced the bay and back of the house was on a canal- had just purchased the lot last June for $500k just to make sure no one else purchased, built a mult level home and blocked his view.
people are running around with FU money now.
Jim Bullard of the Fed just said on CNBC that we are in a housing bubble and talked about how badly the last bubble impacted the economy. Basically said that if things don’t settle down in the next year or two we are headed for trouble.
Careful with bay side houses, those are much more likely to flood, especially on LBI.
Brigantine seems to really be changing the past few years. I think it’s a lot of people that are priced out from LBI, Avalon, and Stone Harbor coming in.
A good barometer I use is the # of golf carts I see driving around the island in Brigantine. Last year I only saw 1-2. This year I saw 3-4 lol.
If you don’t have a golf cart in Stone Harbor or Avalon you’re probably looked at as poor.
Hopefully there is not the myriad of "liars loans" that made the last bubble particularly damaging.
This is the stuff I find interesting yet not well reported. From a recent NY Fed Report:
-Total household debt increased by $313 billion (2.1%) to $14.96 trillion in the second quarter of 2021.
-The total debt balance is now $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019. The 2.1% increase in aggregate balances was the largest seen since Q4 2013 and marked the largest nominal increase in debt balances since Q2 2007.
-Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $282 billion and stood at $10.44 trillion at the end of June.
-Total household debt increased by $313 billion (2.1%) to $14.96 trillion in the second quarter of 2021.
-The total debt balance is now $812 billion higher than at the end of 2019. The 2.1% increase in aggregate balances was the largest seen since Q4 2013 and marked the largest nominal increase in debt balances since Q2 2007.
-Mortgage balances—the largest component of household debt—rose by $282 billion and stood at $10.44 trillion at the end of June.
We've been coming down to SH for 10-12 years. In the beginning, golf carts were a rarity and only for the northern part of Avalon, which is the widest section of the island. Now, they are everywhere, even in southern SH. On 96th street (downtown), it seems like 1/4 to 1/3 of parking spaces are "filled" by carts. LOL!
An interesting analysis would be a comparison of the servicing costs of this debt to 2006-7. Also, if there are any teaser rates that balloon after the first few years and what downpayment is required.
That is interesting . More interesting would be what is the average household debt/mortgage balance compared to household income ?
Always smart to be careful, but the majority of homes on LBI that flooded during Sandy and Irene have either been raised or knocked down and rebuilt. Anything that is left that hasn't been is likely a good candidate to buy and knock down. The bayside off of the bay is likely your best bet to get something like that in the $600-800k range.
Can’t predict the market but it can’t go up forever. It’s currently a sellers market. Just look at the market over the last 20 years.
My sister bought a house near Island Beach State Park around 2000/2001. In 2007 I advised her to sell because she would have more than doubled her money. She decided to hold.
2008/2009 bubble bursted.
Post Sandy in 2012 she was nervous because she did not know what flood insurance increases she would have and the overall impact of the hurricane. Prices were low.
Now fast forward to 2021 and she can triple or quadruple her money if she sells. Again I told her to sell and she is thinking about it.
There are a lot of details around these decisions. Her other house, kids, planning retirement etc etc. bottom line, prices are high now and will go down in the future at some point. No idea when or why but recessions, stock market corrections, hurricanes and other events that usually are driving factors.
My sister bought a house near Island Beach State Park around 2000/2001. In 2007 I advised her to sell because she would have more than doubled her money. She decided to hold.
2008/2009 bubble bursted.
Post Sandy in 2012 she was nervous because she did not know what flood insurance increases she would have and the overall impact of the hurricane. Prices were low.
Now fast forward to 2021 and she can triple or quadruple her money if she sells. Again I told her to sell and she is thinking about it.
There are a lot of details around these decisions. Her other house, kids, planning retirement etc etc. bottom line, prices are high now and will go down in the future at some point. No idea when or why but recessions, stock market corrections, hurricanes and other events that usually are driving factors.
I couldn’t find the comparison although the Fed report is thick. Debt servicing does not seem to be an issue at the moment but then again forbearance programs and government checks make it hard to get a clear read. With mortgage balances rising the key is whether home values remain high. I’ve seen houses in Northern NJ that were purchased less than a year ago (a bunch last Fall) back on the market this summer for 50% higher. I’m surprised appraisals aren’t an issue. I was in LBI two weeks ago looking around and there is nothing under $1M that isn’t a tear-down or with a terrible lot/location.
a builder my daughter works with bought a house here in OC in the spring and did nothing to it at all, sold it a month later for an extra $100K
Because some people still want to live in cities. Even if 100% of people could work from home, some people like urban, suburban, rural, beach, mountains etc. Everyone is different. I would always keep one toe in a city. If you don't have kids, there isn't much reason to live in the suburbs.
Yep. And post Sandy, there's more and more part timers. The cost of lifting homes is very prohibitive.
There's definitely a big increase in NY/CT/PA plates this year but that's exactly it- those people will go back eventually to those places. And, I think the locals want in that way. Only Asbury has really seen any kind of a full time population increase over the years and they built the amenities for it, and want year rounders there.
That said there's only a few towns where the "locals" are truly nasty and antagonistic to outsiders. I could imagine the faces of a few of them who were probably livid COVID restrictions ended. But, even our dear friends on Beacon seem to have taken a chill pill this year from what I have seen. A lot of places, people who rely on the outsiders, bennies, however you want to call them, were excited. And I was excited to be back spending and keeping them going!
I for one enjoy all the excitement that happens from Memorial Day to Labor Day in my neck of the woods. It truly adds to the flavor of the season.
That being said, if the Parker House goes or stays most of Sea Girt could care less. Nothing would change.
But for other towns a place like that does matter. The spill over (of a closure) would affect many of the local businesses attached to the success or failure of a Bar A or Jenkinson’s.
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The only post that needs to be reread is this…
Which one are you, Mickey Mantle?😝
The mayor of Manasquan came to the Osprey to celebrate their 75th. My friends and I were joking, which mayor would celebrate a closing more- Parker/SG or DJais/Belmar? Close call I think. Bar A makes too much money for Lake Como. I didn't think of Jenks, but yeah they are a pretty hostile town. But, they would be in bigger crap financially versus SG or Belmar with a closure. Jenks makes a ton of money for them too, not just the bar but the whole boardwalk there that they run.
The Osprey gives back by paying for the fireworks throughout the summer and a few other charitable things directly to the town. So it’s smart for the mayor to be there.
The past year has brought with it many changes in people's lives. The pandemic dealt a severe blow to humanity's income, which provoked significant changes in the field of residential real estate. Those planning to buy housing in 2021 faced a serious question: What type of apartment is worth paying attention to now, and what type should they not pay any attention to? I will tell you that a large apartment is now quite profitable to take because, unlike a small apartment on the LBI, they have a slight price difference. Of course, the neighborhood decides where the better apartment will be. I would never take an apartment in a big city where there is a lot of carbon dioxide. In my opinion, it would be more profitable to build your own house on your land. That's what I did when I bought the land from Grupo EcoQuintas.
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Yeah, that's my understanding. The sentiment (anger) was that "they come use our beach but don't even contribute the cost of lunch to our economy (instead, bring lunch in shoebox)...
To the OC peeps on this thread, does coming to OC for over 50 years have a special designation? Perhaps "regular visitor" rather than shoobie - LOL
On a side note, my mother has a picture (somewhere) of me and my siblings on the beach in OC (from the 60's) and a very famous blonde in the background. Can you name that blonde - hint 1 - the blondes family is from Philadelphia........
On a side note, my mother has a picture (somewhere) of me and my siblings on the beach in OC (from the 60's) and a very famous blonde in the background. Can you name that blonde - hint 1 - the blondes family is from Philadelphia........
My understanding is that folks arriving to the shore towns on trains would buy lunch in a shoebox from enterprising locals in the train station. The unintended consequence was it was easy to tell who was local and who was a daytripper.
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