OT: Major winter storm 3/20-21?
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
its one thing to like snow and wish for a few small or moderate maybe 6 inch event..however its another thing to wish for 12-24 inch snowstorms
(Overheard at the Hillsborough Deli today)
(Ok, no surprise, but this is a little long.) Yet you spend a ton of time now on 33andrain, which I introduced this board to and everyone there is rooting for snowmageddon, but you've never criticized all of them for their love of snow. Why is that? Jim Cantore gets famous for his childish exuberance at thundersnow and I get grief for it - one friggin' post in the entire thread, I think, where I was having a little fun in relation to a storm I'm pretty sure I'll remember fondly for my whole life. Even if I die while outside shoveling it and helping my neighbors shovel - there are worse ways to go.
I very infrequently talk about my sheer joy of tracking and seeing and playing in and everything else related to snow in these threads, because I realize there are a ton of people around here who, for reasons beyond me, seem to get angry at my enjoyment of snow. So, 99% of the time I keep it very scientific and yet you and a few others still pick at the tiniest little things I post - and the entire time, I know that if this storm busts for some people or becomes a major bust, a bit more than a ramekin of criticism will be heaped upon me like it was back in Jan-15 or even when someone gets 2" instead of the 5" forecast. So, maybe I should just take the route of the weenies and do a little endzone celebration every time we get a decent model run or a few snowflakes fall. Why not, since I get a ton of grief even if I don't behave like that.
Let's get serious for a second. I love snow. I fu*king love everything about it and I always want the maximum snowfall in every situation. I've never denied that, but I rarely show it, since I don't want to piss people off unnecessarily. And, of course, I know that snow can be dangerous or even deadly to people and it inconveniences many, but so do heat waves and t-storms. I wish snow didn't have these bad side effects, but it does and there's nothing I can do about it. At the same time, my love of snow has 0.0 impact on what happens with the weather and my sharing of weather info at least marginally helps some people make better, safer decisions about what to do when snowstorms hit, so maybe don't get your panties all in a bunch every single time I share just a little bit of the joy that snow brings to me.
The alternative is to not to post about the weather here anymore, which would certainly get my wife's vote, especially when I don't think I've ever received one iota of criticism for my weather posts on Facebook or from my 1000+ email/work-blog subscribers - and in those venues, I regularly share my love for snow and nobody seems to mind. Only here. But that would suck in some ways too, as there are a ton of people (probably the silent majority) who have said very nice things and seem to appreciate these threads and I enjoy that part of the interaction and being part of this board for the last 20+ years. Maybe the answer is a blog on FB or some website - seriously exploring that idea, as I need to do that anyway, since my coworkers all have told me I have to have that for them after I retire, which may well be this year. I could just link to it here and people who want to can get the info I provide just as easily and I wouldn't need to bicker with people and piss them off or have them piss me off. Rant over.
Got off from work tomorrow due to the storm. Was scheduled to be in New Brunswick tomorrow RWJ. Time to ride this storm out with some Lag 8 tonight. Just about as good as the 16 IMO. Hoping power stays on for everyone.
That's why I'm hoping the cold air wraps in early tomorrow keeping the entire column below 32F down to the surface, which would lead to a drier snow, which would not stick as much to trees and powerlines, mitigating the risk of widespread power outages - and resulting in a much prettier, higher ratio, less dense snow. If we get several hours, though of the pasty stuff, which is possible to even probable, at least for the first half of the storm, it'll just stick to trees and power lines and then freeze on them when temps drop, greatly increasing the risk of power outages.
Yep, Merck is closed tomorrow - couldn't convince my boss to cancel our 90 minute leadership team meeting, though - damn.Got off from work tomorrow due to the storm. Was scheduled to be in New Brunswick tomorrow RWJ. Time to ride this storm out with some Lag 8 tonight. Just about as good as the 16 IMO. Hoping power stays on for everyone.
I've done a decent amount of work at Merck too. Seems there always knocking down old buildings there. Keep posting the updates RU848789 we appreciate them!!!
Please do not stop.
If you do, please leave us your blog etc.
There are just a ton of miserbale middle aged dudes around here who complain about pretty much everything and anything. Your threads are awesome .
Got off from work tomorrow due to the storm. Was scheduled to be in New Brunswick tomorrow RWJ. Time to ride this storm out with some Lag 8 tonight. Just about as good as the 16 IMO. Hoping power stays on for everyone.
Never had the 8. How much per bottle? Big fan of the 16.
Since when did "wishes" come t
$'s
I read your post last week and went into a funk. But thanks to you I at least knew what was coming.
Don't stop...DON'T EVER F'ING STOP!
You're the weatherman...it's your fall back position.
Seriously, thanks to you I've changed my flight plans to NJ / I'm landing a day later.
Really glad you're watching the weather...whether or not you're rooting for snow.
MO
PS If you really can influence the weather by ROOTING for it....quit Merck. I've got a gig for you in California that will pay you infinitely more, as a shaman - bringing rain (we need it).
I believe I paid $60 online. I order the majority of my Scotch cant find much around here and the prices are so much better.
Yea and if you like moles expect pushback too. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
criticize snow lovers on 33andrain...good luck, any post not fawning over the models is deleted pretty quickly...even the red taggers that are skeptics get major push back when they bring up what could go wrong. Lot of the time its hard to actually see whats going on because they exaggerate with all the wow posts. I get it so I dont really post too much to stir any pot.
Anyhow I cannot believe you actually threatened to take your ball and go home, that is silly. I know you have thicker skin than that and no one has said you shouldnt post here anymore so spare that routine. You provide a very knowledgable and detailed service of information here and no one disputes that...but please understand that most people do not like 1-2 feet of snow and the most snow every storm..they just do not. So on 33 and rain that is what 99% of the posters are, its not like that here. So not sure why such controversy here when someone pushes back on being excited about snow. Isnt everyone entitled to their own opinion here. We go through this every year, same back and forth.
Anyhow I cannot believe you actually threatened to take your ball and go home, that is silly. I know you have thicker skin than that and no one has said you shouldnt post here anymore so spare that routine. You provide a very knowledgable and detailed service of information here and no one disputes that...but please understand that most people do not like 1-2 feet of snow and the most snow every storm..they just do not. So on 33 and rain that is what 99% of the posters are, its not like that here. So not sure why such controversy here when someone pushes back on being excited about snow. Isnt everyone entitled to their own opinion here. We go through this every year, same back and forth.
yeah, too much of that - all of manufacturing is now gone and most of our chemical pilot plants (still have our most important one, though) and various other old buildings. Roy Vagelos was an awesome CEO back in the 80s/90s, but he made a horrible decision, moving the Corporate HQ from Rahway (where he grew up, serving Merck employees in the family's coffee shop!) to the pristine, beautiful, but sterile location in Whitehouse Station - it separated the executives from people who actually do work and started the decline of the company - yeah, we've rebounded, but not to where we were. Company finally got it right a few years ago moving the HQ to Kenilworth, where real work goes on.
That facility in Whitehouse Station was freakin' cool, though.
I turned down an offer from Merck, there, in... mid 90s, I think. Too damn long a commute for me.
Keep it going numbers - best weather info on the internet. Anyone who can't read through your love for snow is an dope. Thanks for all the info!
I never wish harm to anyone but I sure do like it when things slow/shut down, people help each other, and we figure out how to get by vs. Just going by.
Take care of your neighbors and any older folks you know. Stay off the roads and chill. Its not Alaska. It will start melting in a day and the major roads will be clear too.
Take care of your neighbors and any older folks you know. Stay off the roads and chill. Its not Alaska. It will start melting in a day and the major roads will be clear too.
Numbers, you provide a service to ALOT of people on this board and the friends/family/coworks of people on this board. You’re the go to for most people when it comes to weather updates. Let the haters hate. Who cares. You’ve been spot on all winter. Those 3 others guys are butt hurt that they have contradicted every word you’ve said all season long but have yet to be right. They do know the definition of insanity right? Keep going strong numbers.
My wife and I love the weather threads......as do all of the people we forward them to.
Ah, shaddup and go boff a sheep!
Ah, crap, if I'd known I woulda swung by on the way home!Got off from work tomorrow due to the storm. Was scheduled to be in New Brunswick tomorrow RWJ. Time to ride this storm out with some Lag 8 tonight. Just about as good as the 16 IMO. Hoping power stays on for everyone.
Have to check that out: where do you order from?
Got off from work tomorrow due to the storm. Was scheduled to be in New Brunswick tomorrow RWJ. Time to ride this storm out with some Lag 8 tonight. Just about as good as the 16 IMO. Hoping power stays on for everyone.
Maybe you can take the time away from the office, and come install that backsplash in our place? Would appreciate it.
I still have a couple Guinness left . . .
Definitely a cool building, but I hated that place from a culture perspective. Dress codes, strict office/cube conformity codes (size, materials of construction, desks, etc.), and a stick up your ass mentality. I used to love when we had our annual dept meeting there - I'd purposely go there in jeans and sneakers and chuckle at the looks I'd get when walking around. "You lookin' at me?!"
For those who don't know, the building was a huge hexagon (benzene ring inspired) with a many acre forest preserve in the center of it all, replete with trees, rocks, deer and other wildlife. When we moved out, I always thought that the site would've made an awesome paintball/wargames location - mixed rural/urban warfare.
NAM shifts the heavy snows North and West...basically to those of us that got crushed 2 weeks ago. If this shifts N&W that inevitably brings the mix line much closer to 95 and the city. The other short term model HRRR, which runs every hour but only goes out 18 hours has been hinting at this last couple hours.
Bad news (or good news depending on how you look at it), it still means plenty of people on this board get 12 plus, just more North and West
Bad news (or good news depending on how you look at it), it still means plenty of people on this board get 12 plus, just more North and West
its a
mazing how the NAM is putting out different solutions and evolutions from run to run....big hit still for alot but those in south jersey not so much
I work right next door (probably not difficult to figure out who for....there are only so many big companies in Whitehouse Station). There have been so many theories since Merck left about who would eventually occupy that space. At one point in time, people were swearing up and down it would be either Google or a big contemporary non-denominational church.
Ok, off the soapbox and back to the weather (but thanks for the support, folks!). Let's do the 00Z model suite in this post. First up is the 00Z NAM. Yeah, there's some odd looking lesser amounts/almost discontinuities, but these are likely aberrations from convective feedback, as it just doesn't make sense for the output to not be a bit smoother.
00Z 3 km NAM (high resolution); both NAMs show the axis of heaviest snow moving a bit NW, but the NAM has been bouncing around, so unless other models show it, I'd ignore that part of it. Still a huge snowstorm.
The 00Z RDPS/RGEM, showing noticeably less precip for almost everywhere - not sure why and neither are the pros, as far as I can tell.
00Z GFS - also with a bit less snow for most...could be a real trend or could be something the models are "seeing" that isn't represented accurately (like maybe flawed data inputs), but affects the output (it happens). We're almost at radar watching/nowcasting anyway...
00Z GDPS/CMC is less than it was earlier, but is still pretty substantial for most.
The 00Z HRDPS (high res version of the RDPS) was pretty healthy still, although a fair amount less for CNJ vs. 18Z. Wondering if we're seeing real trend, possibly related to the best precip now being modeled further north.
00Z UK still a good hit of over a foot for most, but less than 12Z..
00Z 3 km NAM (high resolution); both NAMs show the axis of heaviest snow moving a bit NW, but the NAM has been bouncing around, so unless other models show it, I'd ignore that part of it. Still a huge snowstorm.
The 00Z RDPS/RGEM, showing noticeably less precip for almost everywhere - not sure why and neither are the pros, as far as I can tell.
00Z GFS - also with a bit less snow for most...could be a real trend or could be something the models are "seeing" that isn't represented accurately (like maybe flawed data inputs), but affects the output (it happens). We're almost at radar watching/nowcasting anyway...
00Z GDPS/CMC is less than it was earlier, but is still pretty substantial for most.
The 00Z HRDPS (high res version of the RDPS) was pretty healthy still, although a fair amount less for CNJ vs. 18Z. Wondering if we're seeing real trend, possibly related to the best precip now being modeled further north.
00Z UK still a good hit of over a foot for most, but less than 12Z..
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I can’t explain it but I also have this excitement about snow. Perhaps it’s hardwiring from being a kid when snow meant no school. I also love skiing and around here snow means the rare opportunity for some decent east coast powder. Ironically this storm has derailed a west coast ski trip I had planned, disrupting and possibly cancelling my flight.
the 3K nam is wonky south of Trenton..interesting...really moves the axis of heaviest snows from central jersey on north...yet another evolution
As a forester with 40+ years of proffessional experience, I can say “trees will fall”. Sorry. No guarantees! Their benefits far outweigh their liabilities.
:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
the 3K nam is wonky south of Trenton..interesting...really moves the axis of heaviest snows from central jersey on north...yet another evolution
Please be true please be true please be true
-Camden County resident
wonky on way to bust in South Monmouth, please.the 3K nam is wonky south of Trenton..interesting...really moves the axis of heaviest snows from central jersey on north...yet another evolution
Hey, I got over 2' of snow 2 weeks ago...cut up trees and branches line my street making for a 5-6' virtual hedgerow at the curb. Let's let the models swing the heavy snow farther north or back to the south--please.
cross your fingers
meanwhile RGEM run that just came in seems a little less extreme than its previous run
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