OT: Major winter storm 3/20-21?

RUPete

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Zarrow said new model came out and cut totals but he still looking at snow bands so he still sticking to his 6 to 10.
I think we can live with that at this point. And I agree with Bac, still no need to go anywhere if you don’t need to. It’s easier now than ever to work from home and if you absolutely need to be in, Bac and Numbers’ reports help you plan ahead by now.
 

bac2therac

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Jul 30, 2001
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There will likely be wide disparties in accumulation from town to town. Rates are going to be so important to be be able to pile up the snow. Just who gets into the banding. It will be interesting to observe the effects of a sun as strong as late September on snowfall accumulations if rates are not good enough. Nowcasting and observation time. There is still a lot of qpf being forecasted and remember this is a much longer duration event than the last one. It is likely to snow at least to midnight so snow will have a better shot of accumulating.
 

RUChoppin

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Dec 1, 2006
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Did u use table salt? My driveway is clear and the road by my house in development is clear and they didn't salt yet.
Remember, I'm at a slightly higher elevation than you are. Was already going steadily by 6:45 when we woke up. Put down calcium chloride late last night, and I've got accumulation on about 40-50% of the driveway right now.
Now that the sun's fully up and the snow rate still isn't high, it's dropped back to about 25% covered. Some accumulation on the street toward the edges, but that's still 95% black.
 

RUChoppin

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It's been totally stopped here in Hillsborough/Neshanic for 20 min or so, now. Driveway almost completely back to black, dusting of maybe a half to one inch across the grass.
 

Rutgers1976

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Coming down moderately in New Providence. Just starting to coat the sidewalk and driveway.
 

Ty Webb

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Jul 24, 2001
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Snow bust here in South Jersey in Marlton/Cherry Hill/Voorhees area.

Mostly just freezing rain.
 

Abro1975

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Snowing hard here in NW Essex County (Cedar Grove), for about an hour now. Sticking on everything but the roads that were pre salted.
 

RU848789

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Some of this is in the quoted thread, but that's a tough one to navigate (even for me and I wrote it, lol). Anyway, I think the probability of a modest to significant bust has increased with the models being less consistent in high snowfall amounts last night and this morning. Could still verify, especially for the lower amounts the NWS-Philly has on their map - the NWS-NYC general 12-18" amounts are just overdone IMHO.

And spring storms are notoriously hard to forecast, especially during the day with the high sun angle, which will melt up to 1/2” per hour snowfall rates during the day and most of this snow will fall during the day – need pretty good snowfall rates to ensure accumulation, especially on paved surfaces and if we don't get the rates we thought we were going to get, it's going to be hard to reach the forecasted targets. We'll see.

TWC just downgraded snowfall forecasts for the big cities; still has 8-12" for NNJ/NYC, but was 12-18" before. Cantore said the inland low closed off and will rob the ocean low of moisture reducing precip (seen on almost every model last night including the Euro).
Here's the fundamental problem in spring. if you get fairly heavy 1" per hour rates for 10 hours, you'll likely get 8-9" of snow, since you'll overcome the melting rate quickly and accumulate rather easily with minimal melting, especially if air temps are below 32F. But if you get moderate 1/2" per hour rates for 10 hours, you probably end up a slushy inch on the ground, since the melting rate is so close to the snowfall rate the entire time.
pk, I'm done whining about models and potential busts for now and am going to enjoy the show, as cranky isn't a good look for anyone, lol. After about 2 hours of sleep with occasional waking to look out the window, we've just had a nice hour of moderate snow, heavy for a few stretches (by radar) and we have 3/4" on the ground as of 9 am and it's 31F and sticking to everything.

With the sun getting higher in the sky we will need more intensity to keep the snow on the paved surfaces, as sun and traffic will do their melting work, but grassy surfaces should be no issue from here on out, as they're covered with high albedo snow and it's below freezing at the surface. Not confident in my 12" forecast for Metuchen, but who knows, eh? That's half the fun.

Wish I didn't have a couple of friggin' work teleconferences today (an hour or so each) - work's closed and I have snow to track and watch, lol.
 
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sport2231

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Snow bust here in South Jersey in Marlton/Cherry Hill/Voorhees area.

Mostly just freezing rain.
Lol. Here we go. This forum is like clockwork for each storm

1) #’s post about a storm potential
2) Bac downplays it
3) People who hate snow Bitch that it might snow
4) #’s and Bac forecast it back forth up until it starts
5) Someone calls bust within the first two hours of the storm

As Bac mentioned, If you were expecting 18+ inches where you were, most will prob bust. But some might over perform.

If you were forecasted for 12-18 and get 10 is that still a bust?
 

slyker

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Feb 2, 2002
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Western Morris county: Snowing since I woke at 5AM - about 3- 4" so far plows just came by for the first time ...... Still had about 5" on my deck and lawn from the previous weeks so accumulating over that
 
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TonyLieske

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FWIW still just rain down here in Cumberland County (on the border of Vineland/Millville).
 

rutgersguy1

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Lol. Here we go. This forum is like clockwork for each storm

1) #’s post about a storm potential
2) Bac downplays it
3) People who hate snow Bitch that it might snow
4) #’s and Bac forecast it back forth up until it starts
5) Someone calls bust within the first two hours of the storm

As Bac mentioned, If you were expecting 18+ inches where you were, most will prob bust. But some might over perform.

If you were forecasted for 12-18 and get 10 is that still a bust?
I don't know but my definition of a bust is very high level. If they forecast an amount I need to remove and in the end it was nothing that's a bust. If they forecast a foot or whatever and it ended up being 4-5 inches I'd just think not as much as expected but not a bust because I still got to go out and remove it. I don't get so granular as defining it down to the inches forecast. It's just basic.... need to remove vs. not having to do anything.

Besides I thought this storm was suppose to only pick up in the afternoon/evening not now. After the other storm where I thought I was gonna escape which an inch or 2 and then all hell broke loose over 2 hours I'm not writing anything off until it's over.
 

RU848789

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Excellent discussion from the NWS a few minutes ago. They're sticking with the forecast, but note bust potential near Philly/SNJ on the low side and NW NJ/NE PA on the high side (they have lower forecasts right now). Also confirming what I had said would likely be the case - snow/liquid ratios above 10:1. That's 10" of snow for every inch of liquid precip equivalent that falls - that's typical around here - we had 5-7:1 in the more recent storms as we had crappy snow growth aloft and melting as flakes fell through above 32F column.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
848 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
8 AM checkin. STS snow grid as posted on PHI web site and in
briefing pkgs conts as is and is from 8AM today through 8 AM
Thursday and does NOT include what occurred between 8 AM ydy and
8AM this morning.

No further briefing pkgs today but we will update the STS as it
becomes apparent to us that amounts will differ more 2 inches
from our fcst. Will we get 10-12" in PHL? Possibly not but its
going to be quite a mess. We already have a widening areas of
MDT snow developing eastern PA and nw NJ just west of the I95
corridor and its only 12z with many reports coming in now of 2"
snowfall in the last several hours.

Also fwiw...temps rose into the upper 30s overnight in the I95
corridor when pcpn quit and still the ice/snow mix held strong.
Ground has been cooled.

We will be issuing LSR`s only for 1/hr snowfall accumulations
and glaze reports elsewhere that totaled 0.1 or greater. Lets
continue sending those reports to us via our skywarn or social
media accts. Both the glaze overnight and the storm total snow
and lets us know how the roads are doing and if any power
outages.

Collapsing thicknesses as pcpn now is changing to sleet and then
snow most of our I95 area except the coast this morning.

Synoptically: no chg from pattern recognition. A big event is
unfolding and we just need to be patient. Significant nearly
stationary banding now evident N central MD to eastern Berks
western Bucks County to near NYC. EVERYONE will share in snow
but the main axis of the S+ should be vcnty MQS-CKZ-SMQ (Chester PA to near Doylestown PA to Somerville). Higher
amts than forecast are possible in the NNJ part of our fcst,
particularly Northampton, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset
but we`re not raising at this time until we know for sure what
we already have at 230 PM. If we update...it will be STS (short term statements) only
and posted to our office winter wx web page and also SM.

Inverted trough developing from the developing primary coastal
low through through Ches Bay and that can aid lift to its
northeast. Monitoring.

Regardless of snow amounts, SUBSTANTIAL impacts, including
power outages and additional tree damage, are likely due to a
combination of heavy snow, strong winds, blowing and drifting
snow.

Mesoscale wise: please note we are aware of a typical Berks
county downslope shadow in western Berks. I can see storm totals
ranging 7" western Berks to 15" near Huffs Church in the high
terrain far eastern Berks. No changes yet but we are aware of
the potential.

Snow ratios: in 3 hr increments 12z tdy-07z tonight.
PHL 9,10,11,12,12,12 to 1 using snow ratio blender.

In the cldr ptn of storm e PA/NNJ vcnty I78 10,12,12,12,12,12
to 1 with Poconos slightly higher snow ratio. So even if qpf
were to decrease this aftn, snow ratios will permit greater
hourly accums.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
The low will begin to move northeast away from the region,
bringing a gradual end to the snow but still expect an easy 1-3"
after 8 PM. For the most part, expect any significant
accumulations to be over with around 2 AM. Light snow showers
may linger into the early morning hours, especially across
northern NJ. For low temperatures, have gone on the lower side
of guidance in anticipation of a widespread snow pack by that
time.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 

knightfan7

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Jul 31, 2003
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Heavy rain and very strong winds at the coast. Looks like we're currently in a pocket of rain in SE Monmouth with snow all around us. Wouldn't be upset if that last as long as possible.
 
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Knight Shift

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Lol. Here we go. This forum is like clockwork for each storm

1) #’s post about a storm potential
2) Bac downplays it
3) People who hate snow Bitch that it might snow
4) #’s and Bac forecast it back forth up until it starts
5) Someone calls bust within the first two hours of the storm

As Bac mentioned, If you were expecting 18+ inches where you were, most will prob bust. But some might over perform.

If you were forecasted for 12-18 and get 10 is that still a bust?
Not trying to be a comedian or anything, but looking at the radar, the rain was only in a small area an hour ago. Now it looks a lot larger. We seem to be in an eye/pocket of rain in Wall/Manasquan, thank goodness:
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx
 

sport2231

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Jan 16, 2007
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Not trying to be a comedian or anything, but looking at the radar, the rain was only in a small area an hour ago. Now it looks a lot larger. We seem to be in an eye of rain, thank goodness:

http://tessera1.intellicast.com/201.../0017/0/20110102000000/1/10/301/636/layer.png
The upper level low is the dominate factor right now. Until the transfer is complete to the coastal low know one knows exactly how this will play out

Again, the 2 ft plus was prob fantasy land anyway in any widespread forecast. But most Mets were forecasting 6-12 and 12-18 pockets depending on where banding sets up.

That could still verify. A lot of models were showing the rain/snow mix for 95 south and east for the beginning
 
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RutgersUnion

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Apr 15, 2006
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UES
This is what my sons daycare sent out this AM.

"We will continue all regularly scheduled classes unless the MTA shuts down the trains."


This should be the default response in NYC. If people movers are running then people can safely move. Driving is obviously a different story.
 

Knight Shift

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May 19, 2011
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The upper level low is the dominate factor right now. Until the transfer is complete to the coastal low know one knows exactly how this will play out

Again, the 2 ft plus was prob fantasy land anyway in any widespread forecast. But most Mets were forecasting 6-12 and 12-18 pockets depending on where banding sets up.

That could still verify. A lot of models were showing the rain/snow mix for 95 south and east for the beginning
Yeah. We are in a small, thin pocket extending from Toms River up through Long Branch, where it looks like snow/ice just to the west in Whiting, Lakewood, Howell and Colts Neck. There is a large patch of rain hugging the coast South of Barnegat, and can only hope that continues to hug the coast.
 
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Postman_1

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Snowing pretty good now in Hamilton, starting to stick to the pavement and street.
 

DJ Spanky

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It's coming down light but steadily here in Wayne. The big difference between this and the last storm is that it's 24° in the backyard instead of just under freezing.
 

sport2231

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The NAM did initialize correctly showing that rain and mix along the coast. Looks like within the next 3 hours it had the rain confined to extreme south east NJ