NWS-Philly discussion. Not much new to add, just confirming the potential...
Attention then turns to a
shortwave that will be moving across the
Plains on Monday and then towards the region on Tuesday. The overall
large scale pattern appears to be well handled by the global models
and
ensemble means, but differences arise in how much
confluence
there is to our north from upper
trough across SE Canada and the
North Atlantic as well as how much amplification will occur as the
shortwave tracks east. Monday will remain dry as brief ridging
occurs ahead of the
shortwave and Canadian high pressure builds
southward into the region.
The approaching
shortwave should be able to develop a well defined
surface low as it nears into Tuesday and moves somewhere off the
Middle Atlantic or northeast coast. The low may deepen fairly
rapidly as it does so, but confidence in track, timing, and strength
is low since this is a day 7 forecast. There is still quite a bit of
time to sort out the details, with the main take home point being
that another storm system is possible sometime early to middle of
next week.