OT: Major winter storm 3/20-21?

OTBOTOR

Senior
Aug 28, 2014
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Jersey City
I’m just mad PIX11 interrupted the Jerry Springer Show just when we were about to find out why a dude cheated on his wife with a ballerina tranny to show us a de Blasio press conference where he said “it’s not snowing much now but it might later, lol”
 
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Degaz-RU

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
Dec 19, 2002
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This storm reminds me of Rutgers’ offense the last two years. A lot of nothing and waiting for something to happen.
 

Tango Two

Moderator
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Aug 21, 2001
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North Brunswick, New Jersey
11:10 am Update:


"Discussion:
We have a snow/sleet/rain line/situation currently near the I-95 corridor. I expect this to advance to the SE between now and afternoon hours (possibly earlier) as the low-mid level temperatures crash. Precipitation should then bring this colder air down to the surface and allow for the late-March stickage. Since SENJ will be the last to changeover to snow, SENJ should expect the least accumulations from this winter storm. By 4pm the entire state should be all snow and we’ll stay that way through evening and possibly overnight hours. The latest short-range model guidance has snow tapering off between 3-4AM Thursday morning.

Based on the relationship between the departing wave (yesterday’s event), the approaching upper-level low and the new coastal low forming off Delmarva, we have a slight tweak to make. The ULL is a little bit further S and W than it should be and the coastal low is a little more organized as a singular low. We think this could possibly open up the jackpot about 25 miles to the NW of where it was. This would mean slightly higher snow amounts for NWNJ and slightly less for areas just SE of the I-95 corridor. No changes for most of SENJ.

Winds are gusting from 38-44mph (from Atlantic City down through Cape May). Points N of that on the ENJ coast are seeing gusts in the 30s. Areas away from the ocean are seeing lesser wind values. Winds should ramp up over the next 6 hours with the singular coastal low development and sustain higher values well into Thursday. The good news is that coastal flooding risk has likely been reduced. I’m fairly confident we can take major criteria off the table given the more organized low—leading to more of a N/NE storm surge direction (more perpendicular to our inlets). I would still however expect moderate-to-major coastal flooding, especially for the SENJ coast.

In English: The storm is just getting started. Areas still seeing rain should soon transition to sleet or possibly just go right to snow. No one along or SE of I-95 should be surprised by the rainy/mixed start this morning. It was well advertised, timing is right on track and we’re about to thump through early tomorrow morning. We now think more of NWNJ could see higher snowfall accumulations (like NENJ and CNJ) with a small reduction just SE of the I-95 corridor. No changes for most of SENJ. We’re talking a couple of inches either way here so nothing drastic. All warranted hazards remain. Winds should continue intensifying along the coast throughout today but the coastal flooding risk has likely been reduced (good news) from the moderate-to-major category down to the minor-to-moderate category. Areas away from the ocean should also notice winds picking up soon but not as bad as the coast. I hope everyone is warm and well-prepared. Be safe! JC"


http://www.weathernj.com/march-21-morning-winter-storm-update/
 

29PAS

Junior
Gold Member
Sep 21, 2001
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HUGE flakes just started coming down in midtown Manhattan. Beautiful snowfall at the moment.
 

Machiavelli23

All American
Aug 12, 2008
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in the 70s and 80s...we most certainly would have went to school today and given a half day if it got worse. Too much hype and overanalyzation these days. Yes we did used to go to school with an inch or snow actually on the pavement
Plus, half days are awesome cause a lot of students stay home anyway so for teachers, it is almost not worth going over new info as the lesson has to be repeated when all the other students return to school.
 

bac2therac

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 30, 2001
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Belle Mead NJ
some bigger flakes in Belle Mead but still not sticking to pavement. Temp at 31...maybe 1.5 inches at peak but even that has compacted somewhat
 

camdenlawprof

Heisman Winner
Nov 20, 2001
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Cherry Hill
Here in Cherry Hill, the snow started at about 10 a.m. The snow has been coming down steadily and it is sticking to the pavement. It seems to me we won't be able to judge whether this is a bust until late afternoon because the forecast is for times of heavy snow this p.m.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman Winner
Dec 1, 2006
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Hillsborough, NJ
At the very least, this is something of a "timing bust" - there was an expectation set for morning snow volume that caused a lot of preemptive cancellations, but now that volume isn't going to materialize until mid/late afternoon.

It's picking up in Hillsborough now to the rate of snowfall we had been anticipating closer to 9 am.
 

JERZEE73

All American
Dec 21, 2001
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My daughter just asked if I'd drive her to the movies in No. Brunswick to meet her friends for a 2 PM show.
Ordinarily it's a 20 minute drive. With heavier stuff coming in perhaps, would this be a dumb move? I have no idea how the roads in Central NJ are, although posters not far away, keep saying black top is clear.
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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Metuchen, NJ
1.5" OTG as of 11:30 am, so 1/2" in the last 90 minutes - been mostly light to moderate. 14Z HRRR only had me at 1.5" at this point and 12Z NAM had me around an inch or so, which is pretty impressive actually, although HRRR only has me at about 9" at the end and NAM at almost 11", which would be fine, but maybe a little disappointing, given the forecast of 10-15" (and 12-18" for awhile yesterday).

NWS-Philly updated map from 10:40 am - mostly unchanged (NB actually up from 14 to 15"). Obviously, they're seeing things differentl from many others - we'll know who was right in about 12 hours. Here's their thinking...

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1106 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1030AM update: Increased snow amts N central NJ through ptns of
e central and se PA down thru e MD and srn-central DE, and then
tonight coastal NJ Atlc nwd. WSW is out. 1030 AM STS is posted
and reminder...only 8A today to 8A Thursday. We know its struggling
to snow snow north of I80 and we haven`t changed amts there and
sweat it out as models insist it will snow pretty good there
this aftn/early tonight. We have not changed PHl amt at all
until we know the reality at 230 PM.

2.5" OTG as of 1:00 pm and 2.0" OTG as of 12:30 pm, so 1" per hour the last half hour - coming down moderately to almost heavily. 32F. Streets getting covered again. Beautiful dendrites - this must be at least 10:1 ratio snow. NWS-Philly still holding fast to forecast, as is NWS-NYC just recently.

National Weather Service New York NY
1151 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Precipitation type is mainly snow across the region with a few
inches of snow already reported in different parts of Northeast
New Jersey and in New York City to Western Long Island. Snow is
mostly moderate to occasionally heavy and this is expected to
continue into this afternoon.

Upper low continues to march toward the east coast, with
coastal low still east of the Delmarva.

With an expected track of the sfc low near the 40N/70W
benchmark along with strong deep lift and banded precip, the
stage is set or a major winter storm for the area. Colder and
drier air is in place when compared to previous events.

Colder air will be pulled down from the north as the storm
deepens.

NYC metro including NE NJ, the lower Hudson Valley and into SW
CT, would typically be in the bulls eye of heavier snow
conceptually. Always hard to pinpoint any potential bands, but
generally expect 12 to 18 inches across these locations if
everything pans out as expected (track, thermal profiles, etc).

Temps in the lower 30s remain steady or fall as the heavier
snow commences. Snow ratios look to be at least 10 to 1, and
even 13 to 1 or 15 to 1 is possible for the interior.

The western extent of the precip shield should keep amounts well
NW down slightly, but a foot or more is possible even up across
those locations.

Winds will be quite gusty, with 40+ mph at times possible.
Blizzard conditions are possible at times, just not quite enough
confidence for that upgrade to the hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As the slow moving storm begins to pull away, heavier snow will
taper from west to east late tonight. Once again, 7-12 inches
possible well NW, 12-18 around NYC metro and into SW CT, and
slightly lower totals are expected east, and lower snow ratios.
 
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bac2therac

Legend
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Jul 30, 2001
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Belle Mead NJ
At the very least, this is something of a "timing bust" - there was an expectation set for morning snow volume that caused a lot of preemptive cancellations, but now that volume isn't going to materialize until mid/late afternoon.

It's picking up in Hillsborough now to the rate of snowfall we had been anticipating closer to 9 am.

yes its picking up here but still not sticking on pavement, eventually it will and then will enable further accumulations

but you see on the radar here alot of the heavier initial snows have been pushed west than anticipated into PA...not sure why jersey shore has really been screwed a bit so far with lesser returns

the models were general garbage in their handling of the evolution of the system, some could be right on accumulations but that is by accident, so much flip flopping.

https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DIX&loop=yes
 

Tango Two

Moderator
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Aug 21, 2001
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North Brunswick, New Jersey
My daughter just asked if I'd drive her to the movies in No. Brunswick to meet her friends for a 2 PM show.
Ordinarily it's a 20 minute drive. With heavier stuff coming in perhaps, would this be a dumb move? I have no idea how the roads in Central NJ are, although posters not far away, keep saying black top is clear.

Blacktop in North Brunswick
 

bac2therac

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 30, 2001
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Belle Mead NJ
My daughter just asked if I'd drive her to the movies in No. Brunswick to meet her friends for a 2 PM show.
Ordinarily it's a 20 minute drive. With heavier stuff coming in perhaps, would this be a dumb move? I have no idea how the roads in Central NJ are, although posters not far away, keep saying black top is clear.

it will get worse later but its not like its going to be a blizzard, if you are okay with driving on some slushy roads then you should be fine, if not then I would say stay home
 

koleszar

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Jan 1, 2010
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Just started picking up here in Howell about a half hour ago. Nothing on pavement as the town finally did a good job of brining, actually a salt truck came through just an hour ago. I'm literally shocked. Everywhere else, an ice crust topped with snow. Maybe an inch total.
 
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Knight Shift

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May 19, 2011
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Jersey Shore
what are your observations...any snow yet?
Very little. Just started snowing steadily. Driveway and road are black. Dirt backyard waiting for grass seed is mostly brown. Grassy surfaces covered with 1/4-1/2".

I am watching a dynamic radar loop, and there is a big pocket of rain that is swirling counterclockwise just south of Ocean City, NJ. I can only hope that pushes up the coast and continues our precipitation to be more wet than white.

How is it in Ocean City, @newell138 ?
 

Knight Shift

Legend
May 19, 2011
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Jersey Shore
Just started picking up here in Howell about a half hour ago. Nothing on pavement as the town finally did a good job of brining, actually a salt truck came through just an hour ago. I'm literally shocked. Everywhere else, an ice crust topped with snow. Maybe an inch total.
Wall and Howell dropped the ball yesterday afternoon. I cut through the airport to Hurley Pond Road to 524. The roads were covered with slush/ice. Saw a car in a ditch near Allaire. Things are better today, but it has been mostly rain.
 

djrc89

All Conference
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Aug 5, 2001
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I call bs that no one should be surprised. It was supposed to be snowing by 8-9 o’clock this am with massive accumulation all afternoon. It’s still raining here. If I was as inaccurate in my profession with a hundredth of the tools, I’d be unemployed
QUOTE="Tango Two, post: 3236225, member: 536"]11:10 am Update:


"

://www.weathernj.com/march-21-morning-winter-storm-update/[/QUOTE]
 
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VW Knight

Senior
Jul 23, 2008
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Just started picking up here in Howell about a half hour ago. Nothing on pavement as the town finally did a good job of brining, actually a salt truck came through just an hour ago. I'm literally shocked. Everywhere else, an ice crust topped with snow. Maybe an inch total.
Live in Howell, work in Freehold. Left work at 11:30 because it was starting to snow. Got home to freezing rain, I guess that’s what it was. My streets clear, saw a salt truck coming through when I got home
 

VW Knight

Senior
Jul 23, 2008
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Wall and Howell dropped the ball yesterday afternoon. I cut through the airport to Hurley Pond Road to 524. The roads were covered with slush/ice. Saw a car in a ditch near Allaire. Things are better today, but it has been mostly rain.
I almost skidded off the road on Five Points Rd by Colts Neck HS. The road was just garbage.
 

D0ughB0y

Redshirt
Nov 6, 2006
16
3
3
36 degrees. Brief bit of snow per my last post in Norther Ocean County. Bubkis A few flurries here and there, mostly just light rain. Maybe an inch of snow/sleet on the grass, driveways/sidewalks clear.
 

RUChoppin

Heisman Winner
Dec 1, 2006
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Hillsborough, NJ
Still coming down hard in Hillsborough/Neshanic. Grass now covered, aside from some dried leaves poking through. Roads and driveway just starting to turn gray with some accumulation.