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OT: Maria devastates Puerto Rico, but is unlikely to make US east coast landfall

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the storm hits NJ hard before kickoff....... tons of standing water on the field that
causes the play to be slippery and sloppy

RU leads by 10 at the half

at halftime, the RU field crew works feverishly to clear the field of the water, making it surprisingly playable.

RU loses by 28...

Perfect.
 
Interesting graphic on the paths of Irma and Maria. God help those islands still recovering from Irma that are gonna get by Maria.

_97853855_hurricane.png
This storm is more likely to smack the islands that Irma "missed".....St. Croix instead of the other VIs and PR. That's rough.
 
Official landfall on Dominica at 9:15 pm with 160 mph Cat 5 winds. Ouch. Can't even imagine what that's like to live through. In addition to the obvious winds and 6-9 foot storm surges, Dominica is also quite mountainous and with 12-18" rains, there could be catastrophic landslides.

Looks like Martinique escaped a direct hit and that Guadaloupe will be a close call, as it wil likely escape a direct hit, but is going to be on the strong (northern) side of the storm, so they'll get hurricane conditions. The one good thing compared to Irma is that the hurricane force winds only extend out 30 or so miles from the center, which is much less than Irma had.

Also, fortunately, the Leeward Islands further to the north that were destroyed by Irma will likely only receive heavy rains and maybe hurricane force gusts, although for those locations, even that will be a serious impact. This is only the 2nd time since 1899 that two major hurricanes have struck the Leeward Islands.

St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico are seriously under the gun for a possible Cat 5 landfall and Puerto Rico has the same issue as Dominica - lots of mountains with streams becoming raging rivers and landslides becoming very likely with over a foot of rain - that, plus 150+ mph winds and a possible 6-10 foot storm surge are a potentially catastrophic combination for many. Didn't see the updated track from 5 pm, so it's below.

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I would be shocked - shocked, I say - if this storm were to get to Florida. The way the models and the NHC forecast track are lining up any putative U.S. landfall would be OBX, north.

Generally agree. Two camps of models now: the camp that keeps a relatively strong western Atlantic ridge and forces Maria uncomfortably close to the Carolinas and maybe the mid-Atlantic/New England and the camp that has Maria shooting the gap well offshore between the east coast and Bermuda - more models are in the latter camp, but that's well beyond the 5-day NHC forecast, so Maria still needs to be watched closely. Florida impact is extremely unlikely at this point.
 
11 pm NHC update is out and Maria is still a Cat 5 with 160 mph winds and is expected to be a Cat 5 or very strong Cat 4 at landfall on Puerto Rico in 24-30 hours.
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Dominica disrupted Maria's circulation somewhat, as indicated by the winds now being back to 155 mph (very strong Cat 4), but the storm appears to be recovering. Tonight's 0Z models (and especially the major global models, including the Euro) almost all show Maria staying offshore and missing the US.

However, we're still 8+ days away from when Maria might approach the Carolinas and the error bars on the track at that timeframe are much too large to discount a US landfall, at this time, especially given the ~50% probability of a US landfall, based on climatological data on storms that have been within 100 miles of Maria's 11 pm position (as per Don S on AmericanWx).

Personally, I'd go with the strong model consensus (even at 8+ days) of a US miss over climatology, but we still need to watch Maria very closely until we can be sure it will miss the US - that's why the NHC doesn't even speculate on tracks beyond 5 days...but we can.

Edit: here's the 5 am track...

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It's gotta get its poopie together. Maria's endured some pretty strong shear through her initial formation and is within a day and a half of interacting with the middle Antilles, most of which have some pretty mountainous terrain. The storm's presentation, right now, is pretty poor and its current projected path provides a number of opportunities for disruption.
Did you post "poopie" or "doody"?
I am going to get to the bottom of this. Yes there is a pun.
 
I'm an atheist, but I might just say a prayer for Puerto Rico, which is now in the crosshairs of a Cat 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds and an outrageously low 909 mbar central pressure, as Maria keeps strengthening (St. Croix may escape the Cat 5 winds, but it will be a close call). This is going to be a devastating hit on Puerto Rico, including the capital of San Juan PR, from these winds, record storm surge and flooding 12-20" rains and unfortunately, the path includes the capital of San Juan PR. Maria is only the 2nd Cat 5 to make landfall in PR in recorded history,

I don't have time to post much more right now, but take a look at the link to Jeff Masters' blog, which is awesome as always, and just read the 7 pm update below to know what these islands are in store for tonight and early tomorrow morning as she makes landfall. The only slight positive is that the storm's worst winds are in a fairly small circle extending about 30 miles out from the center of the storm.

Unfortunately, it's still uncllear what effects Maria may have on the US east coast. A landfall in Florida is pretty much out of the question, but on some models, including the Euro, Maria could come uncomfortably close (150-200 miles) to the Outer Banks and maybe SE New England in the 8-9 day timeframe, as a possible Cat 1/2 hurricane, although most models still show Maria staying well off the coast. Given the very high error bars on track 8+ days out, people from the Carolinas to Maine (and eastern Canada) need to keep an eye on Maria.



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT5+shtml/192159.shtml?

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-headed-catastrophic-hit-puerto-rico-st-croix

Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
700 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017

...700 PM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA STILL
STRENGTHENING...

Reports just received from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased
to 175 mph (280 km/h). The estimated minimum pressure based on
data from the aircraft is 909 mb (26.84).

A wind gust to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in the
eastern portion of St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands.


SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.84 INCHES

Adding in the 5 pm track...

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The reports, what few there are, coming in from Dominica are very, very bad. If you're the praying type, you might want to send a few their way. Unconfirmed reports from the island, which took the full brunt of Maria's Cat 5 strength, are suggesting 90% of all buildings destroyed and confirmed casualties.

Maria is still a Cat 5. Current recon from the 53rd WRS has found a minimum central pressure of 909 mb and a max surface wind of 175 mph and the storm appears to be getting stronger - and larger - as it approaches St. Croix. If there's any "good" news in the short term it's that Maria's current track will keep St. Croix right on the edge of the core, so their experience will likely be roughly Cat 3.

Current course projections take Maria over Puerto Rico, with a very real possibility that San Juan will experience the RFQ. Puerto Rico should start to see hurricane conditions in the very early hours of tomorrow morning.

The track thereafter runs just off the northern shore of the Dominican Republic, northwestward to east of the Bahamas with a gradual turn to the north-northwest thereafter. Long range modeling is, for the most part, keeping Maria off the coast of the U.S. and, eventually, out to sea.
 
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Very bad news for PR, St Thomas and St Croix, the US Virgin Islands.

I worked in the Ponce, PR area just after college for a year. Based on my knowledge of the island, a direct hit on the island with right quadrant damage to San Juan and the East coast where many resorts are located will be devastating to an already ailing economy there. If the service industry is out of business then so is PR.

I am going to a fund raiser tomorrow here in SW FL to donate funds to a PR disaster fund for this storm. Hoping for the best against long odds.
 
No changes of significance in Maria's strength or track, with winds still at 175 mph (and 909 mbar pressure, the 10th lowest seen in recorded history in the Atlantic basin) and the track very close to St. Croix tonight into the wee hours of the morning (a very close call for the Cat 5 winds spanking at least the SW part of St. Croix), and then Maria hammering from Puerto Rico's SE to north central coast, with San Juan likely being in the strongest part of the storm in the NE eyewall.

Absolute destruction is likely for large swaths of the island, especially in the poorer neighborhoods with housing that simply can't stand up to Cat 5 winds. And if some areas survive the winds, they might not survive the unprecedented storm surge along the coast and/or the torrential rains that will fall over most of the island, leading to catastrophic flooding and mudslides.

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Maria just made landfall in SE Puerto Rico about an hour ago. Fortunately for PR, Maria underwent an "eyewall replacement cycle" overnight, which weakened the storm to a 155 mph top end of cat 4 hurricane. The "price" paid for this weakening, as often occurs in EWC's is that the storm grew in size, especially the eye and eyewall diameters, so greater areas will be impacted with hurricane force winds. Here's how the NHC described it at 5 am.

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

Radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Maria has just about completed an eyewall replacement. Based on
the now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from
10 n mi to 30 n mi. This has likely contributed to some weakening,
and based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the
intensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.
Although there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria
remains an extremely dangerous hurricane. Some weakening is
likely while the system crosses Puerto Rico. Later in the forecast
period, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further
weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful
hurricane for the next 5 days. The official intensity forecast is
near or a little above the model consensus.

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Why are we seeing such strong hurricanes this year compared to previous?

Throw in the earthquakes and it seems the planet is stepping up organic population control.

The water in that region is really, really warm. Approaching 90 degrees in many places. Rising water temperatures have a non-linear impact on storm intensification.

Earthquakes just happen. They happen all the time. The area around Puebla, MX is seismically very active. Mexico sits on both the North American tectonic plate, in the north, and the Cocos tectonic plate in the south. They're moving in opposite directions.
 
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Another $100 billion clean up bill coming our way. At some point an intelligent people would decide that it's much more cost-effective to prepare for hurricanes than to keep cleaning up mountains of debris afterwards.
 
Another $100 billion clean up bill coming our way. At some point an intelligent people would decide that it's much more cost-effective to prepare for hurricanes than to keep cleaning up mountains of debris afterwards.

Define "prepare", as it fits into your scenario of not having to clean anything up.
 
IRMA was my 1st hurricane in 11 years here in Florida. It was anything BUT fun. I did manage to get my boat from Key West to Key Largo & get it secured. Then IRMA followed me to Orlando. I HOPE MARIA takes "the northern turn" predicted but as IRMA taught us its not 100% sure what route a hurricane takes.

My heart goes out to friends who live on St Thomas that got slammed twice. And While Puerto Rico didnt get hit bad the 1st time, but they are getting slammed now !
 
Another $100 billion clean up bill coming our way. At some point an intelligent people would decide that it's much more cost-effective to prepare for hurricanes than to keep cleaning up mountains of debris afterwards.
I read we spent $500 billion in disaster clean up since 2000 and now it seem like maybe $400 billion just for this year. The US can not pay this type of Bill. When it happens in Asia, it just happens without the expectation of the government bailout.
 
The water in that region is really, really warm. Approaching 90 degrees in many places. Rising water temperatures have a non-linear impact on storm intensification.

Earthquakes just happen. They happen all the time. The area around Puebla, MX is seismically very active. Mexico sits on both the North American tectonic plate, in the north, and the Cocos tectonic plate in the south. They're moving in opposite directions.
Just like the football and basketball programs.
 
Another $100 billion clean up bill coming our way. At some point an intelligent people would decide that it's much more cost-effective to prepare for hurricanes than to keep cleaning up mountains of debris afterwards.

There are no short term "preparations" one can make for a major hurricane, per se, that will significantly reduce damage from winds/surge/flooding rains. Sure, people can evacuate to save their lives, but that's about it. The only things that reduce the damage are long term investments in building stronger structures to withstand Cat 5 winds and not building any structures in vulnerable storm surge or floodplain areas - or at least building them at a height above the worst case storm flood level.

These are expensive things to do right and usually only apply to new construction - and certainly aren't going to happen in poor or even middle class areas. And that's just the housing/structure angle, not the angle on key vulnerable infrastructure, like power grids/utilities, cell towers, manufacturing sites, etc.

Also, while global warming likely has a small role in slightly stronger storms, due to slightly warmer sea surface temps, it has no proven role in the number and general severity of storms per year (or decade), which are much more a function of ENSO state (El Nino/Southern Oscillation), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (which is related to sea surface temps), regional shear and mid-level humidity environments in favored tropical storm genesis and evolution locations. That may all change with continued global warming in coming decades, but for now it doesn't appear to be a factor (or at least it hasn't been demonstrated yet).
 
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I read we spent $500 billion in disaster clean up since 2000 and now it seem like maybe $400 billion just for this year. The US can not pay this type of Bill. When it happens in Asia, it just happens without the expectation of the government bailout.

If the government can't help its citizens in this type of situation what the hell is the damn purpose of it. There are only so many "gofundme" campaigns that Facebook can support, can't have one for every family impacted. You're talking storms of historical proportions here.
 
There are no short term "preparations" one can make for a major hurricane, per se, that will significantly reduce damage from winds/surge/flooding rains. Sure, people can evacuate to save their lives, but that's about it. The only things that reduce the damage are long term investments in building stronger structures to withstand Cat 5 winds and not building any structures in vulnerable storm surge or floodplain areas - or at least building them at a height above the worst case storm flood level.

These are expensive things to do right and usually only apply to new construction - and certainly aren't going to happen in poor or even middle class areas. And that's just the housing/structure angle, not the angle on key vulnerable infrastructure, like power grids/utilities, cell towers, manufacturing sites, etc.

Also, while global warming likely has a small role in slightly stronger storms, due to slightly warmer sea surface temps, it has no proven role in the number and general severity of storms per year (or decade), which are much more a function of ENSO state (El Nino/Southern Oscillation), the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (which is related to sea surface temps), regional shear and mid-level humidity environments in favored tropical storm genesis and evolution locations. That may all change with continued global warming in coming decades, but for now it doesn't appear to be a factor (or at least it hasn't been demonstrated yet).

I meant long term preparations. Climate change or not the number of people in the path of storms continues to grow and so do the bills for picking up the mess. If we can reasonably predict a certain number of storms over a medium or long term period of time we can also probably predict the clean up bills. It makes sense to think long term--for once--then and spend some money beforehand to prevent damage. Or we could keep doing the same thing over and over.
 
The Netherlands is a country with a long history of flooding--and a complex series of levees and seawalls designed to protect the country. They have designated areas to flood in case their defenses are overwhelmed by water and these areas have houses that float and infrastructure designed to handle heavy flooding. That is preparation. What we do is live from one disaster to the next, with the attention span of 7 year olds.
 
The Netherlands is a country with a long history of flooding--and a complex series of levees and seawalls designed to protect the country. They have designated areas to flood in case their defenses are overwhelmed by water and these areas have houses that float and infrastructure designed to handle heavy flooding. That is preparation. What we do is live from one disaster to the next, with the attention span of 7 year olds.

They're entirely different scenarios. The relationship of sea level to the coastal Netherlands is a constant relationship. They're exposed to flooding - or potential flooding - on a regular basis. They're not exposed to hurricane force winds and storm surge.

Now, the thing that I will readily concede in this discussion is that we have, in this country, a number of populated areas that continually put themselves at risk through overdevelopment and failure to comply with reasonable and sane standards and practices for growth. New Orleans, Houston, Miami and yes, even New Jersey, have incurred considerable storm damage because they insist on building in areas that are highly susceptible to storm damage.

The Jersey shore is great but the reality is that there should be no dense construction on the barrier islands and places like bay coastal Toms River should not exist, period. They've filled in coastal wetlands and built on top of them, which puts those areas at risk in a direct sense and puts adjacent areas at risk because the loss of coastal wetlands eliminates the natural buffer for coastal flooding and serves to spread the impact beyond what would be natural.

As we look toward the future and inevitable rising sea levels we should, in my very strong opinion, be looking at plans to de-gentrify coastal areas susceptible to flooding and return them to their natural state.
 
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I see the current thread title contrasts Puerto Rico with the "U.S." Reminds me of the lines from West Side Story:

Nobody knows in America
Puerto Rico's in America!
 
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RU848789 - what is your meteorological opinion on the forecasted global cooling being predicted from 2020-2035? I don't specifically recall the rationale but I thought it was related to energy emmited by the sun and absorbed by earth. Interesting theory.....certainly would throw a wrinkle in the Climite Change debate if true
 
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