OT: Minor to Moderate Snow/Mix Likely Sat Evening (2/8) through Sun am

[RU848789]

This event is looking a bit snowier and more impactful than today's event, although we're still ~60 hours from the start of the event relative to the 12Z models coming out now (which had 7 am EST data inputs). Could see snow starting late afternoon/early evening Saturday and at least a few inches of snow are expected for areas N of 276/195 (and maybe down to Philly/SNJ) with several inches possible along/N of 78 before any mixing with or changeover to sleet and maybe freezing rain or plain rain (most likely to see plain rain south of 276/195 and it might be all frozen N of 78). The precip should be over by 7-10 am on Sunday. Note that some models are showing up to 0.2" of freezing rain for even the 95 corridor, especially south of 276/195, where a change to freezing rain or rain is more likely. The chances of a complete miss or an all rain event are about nil this close in.

Will post the 12Z model summary around 1 pm, but we already have a couple of fairly snowy predictions being made by both News12 and TWC, which both have a lot more snow forecast than today's event. Specifically, TWC has a 3" line along 276/195 from about Hatboro to Trenton to Belmar with 3-5" from that line north to close to 78 with 5-8" north of 78 and 1-3" south of 276/195 to about a line from Wilmington to LBI, while News12 has their 3" line from about Titusville to Sandy Hook with 3-6" north of that line through the rest of CNJ and all of NNJ (and adjacent EPA/NYC) and 1-3" south of that line with the 1" line going from about Salem to AC. On the other hand, as per below, the NWS is a bit less bullish with 1-3" from about 276/195 to 78 and 3-5" north of 78, but 1" or less south of 276/195 (including Philly/SNJ). Stay tuned.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ng-sunday-nyc-li-s-of-i78-on-the-edge/page/3/

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For now, general consensus amongst forecast guidance is that this
system is trending slightly colder, meaning more snow is possible!
As precipitation begins on Saturday afternoon, most locales should
encounter a period of light snow as temperatures will be below or
around the freezing mark heading into Saturday night. However, a
modest ramp-up in warm air advection is anticipated to occur later
Saturday night as a warm nose aloft progresses northward. This will
result in a gradual change over to sleet and/or freezing rain from
south to north. Point forecast soundings suggest that freezing rain
may be favored over sleet so have included this potential in the
forecast. As temperatures warm overnight throughout the atmospheric
column, a changeover to plain rain is expected across the Delmarva
and most of the Coastal Plain. However, frozen precipitation may
hang on for the duration of the event especially up in the higher
elevations of the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern New Jersey.
The timings and specifics of the changeover are not yet set in
stone, but the greatest potential for a prolonged period of frozen
precipitation lies over the usual spots of the higher terrain areas.

In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for 0.40-0.70" of
liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, anticipate a
C-1" for the northern Delmarva and much of the I-95 corridor
including the Philadelphia metro. Just north of the I-95 corridor up
to and including the I-78 corridor, expecting 1-3". Once north of
the I-78 corridor and especially north of I-80, amounts upwards of 3-
5" are possible. There will also be freezing rain accretion over
most of the area, but amounts should generally range from a T-0.1"
(locally higher). Considering this, Winter Weather headlines will
likely be needed within the next 24-48 hours.

 

[Section124]

Thanks for creating this thread. Was starting to plan my Sunday before the Super Bowl at Hunter and was curious on snow amounts. 5-8" may be enough to make the trip back home a pain. Need to see how this develops.

 

[bac2therac]

some of the 12z runs dont appear to be that great per the weenie board...some are though

 

[RU848789]

Brief 12Z global model summary (too far out for the meso/short-range models, like the NAM, RGEM, HRRR etc.) is below and the general message for CNJ is a wide range of outcomes are possible from 1-3" like the GFS and NWS say, up to maybe 3-6" as per the UK and TWC/News 12. Less than 1" seems very unlikely as does more than 6-7", but stranger things have happened. I also don't detail which model mixes when, where and how much sleet/freezing rain/rain they might show, because that's too complicated, but, in general, mixing/changeover are much more likely south of 78 and especially south of 276/195, which is why the models show less snow there.

• The GFS is the least snowy model, showing <1" south of 276/195, 1-3" for 276/195 up to 78 and 2-4" N of 78 to 84
• The CMC shows 1-2" south of 276/195, 2-4" from 276/195 to 78 and 3-5" N of 78 to 84
• The UK is the snowiest model and shows 2-4" from Wilmington to LBI up to 276/195 and shows 4-7" N of 276/195 up to 84
• The Euro shows 1/2-2" south of 276/195, 2-4" from 276/195 to 78 and 4-7" north of 78 to 84

 

[RU848789]

some of the 12z runs dont appear to be that great per the weenie board...some are though

Not sure what they're talking about, as per my comments on the models. And I didn't even add the NAM/RGEM which are 3-6"/2-4" for CNJ respectively. Only the GFS shows 1-2" for parts of CNJ towards 276/195.

 

[rurichdog]

The 540 thickness line is way too far north to support the snowfall amounts some of the models are spitting out for our area.

 

[bac2therac]

Not sure what they're talking about, as per my comments on the models. And I didn't even add the NAM/RGEM which are 3-6"/2-4" for CNJ respectively. Only the GFS shows 1-2" for parts of CNJ towards 276/195.

I think weenie map with another mixed precip event shouldn't be taken verbatim

 

[RU848789]

First NWS snowfall map and it generally follows what the NWS said this morning, i.e., <1" south of 276/195, 1-3" from 276/195 to 78, and 3-5" north of 78. They're not biting yet on the higher snowfall amount being seen in most of the models, which is probably a wise choice, as it's usually easier to ramp up predictions with greater confidence than to have walk back initial forecasts which are too high.

 

[RU848789]

The 540 thickness line is way too far north to support the snowfall amounts some of the models are spitting out for our area.

We've had good snows in the past with the 540 line well north of us - it's just a rule-of-thumb. If it were that good of a guide, the models would simply use it directly to determine the rain/snow line, but they don't. Having said that one often needs something to overcome that impediment to snow, like very good dynamics aloft producing good rates and dynamic cooling. Or maybe those models will just be wrong, like most were on the snow vs. sleet today. No pros I know of were saying the precip would go almost directly to sleet when it started, so something was clearly missed.

 

[RU848789]

NWS-NYC surprisingly issued watches for their whole area. South of the Tappan Zee, which includes Union up to Bergen/Passaic and NYC/LI, the watches are generally for 2-4" of snow with some freezing rain, which is driving the watch, since 6" of snow is the criterion for a watch. For their counties north of the Tappan Zee, the watch is for 4-7" of snow, with no mixing assumed.

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=OKX&wwa=winter storm watch

 

[RU848789]

I think weenie map with another mixed precip event shouldn't be taken verbatim

Absolutely agree, which is why I think the NWS initial map is pretty good.

 

[RUhasarrived]

Lee Goldberg just mentioned a storm next Thursday as well.
Remember that week in 1994 when we had storms on Monday,Wednesday and Friday?

 

[HeywoodGiant]

The 540 thickness line is way too far north to support the snowfall amounts some of the models are spitting out for our area.

who is that in your icon?

 

[Postman_1]

 

[RU848789]

This event is looking a bit snowier and more impactful than today's event, although we're still ~60 hours from the start of the event relative to the 12Z models coming out now (which had 7 am EST data inputs). Could see snow starting late afternoon/early evening Saturday and at least a few inches of snow are expected for areas N of 276/195 (and maybe down to Philly/SNJ) with several inches possible along/N of 78 before any mixing with or changeover to sleet and maybe freezing rain or plain rain (most likely to see plain rain south of 276/195 and it might be all frozen N of 78). The precip should be over by 7-10 am on Sunday. Note that some models are showing up to 0.2" of freezing rain for even the 95 corridor, especially south of 276/195, where a change to freezing rain or rain is more likely. The chances of a complete miss or an all rain event are about nil this close in.

Will post the 12Z model summary around 1 pm, but we already have a couple of fairly snowy predictions being made by both News12 and TWC, which both have a lot more snow forecast than today's event. Specifically, TWC has a 3" line along 276/195 from about Hatboro to Trenton to Belmar with 3-5" from that line north to close to 78 with 5-8" north of 78 and 1-3" south of 276/195 to about a line from Wilmington to LBI, while News12 has their 3" line from about Titusville to Sandy Hook with 3-6" north of that line through the rest of CNJ and all of NNJ (and adjacent EPA/NYC) and 1-3" south of that line with the 1" line going from about Salem to AC. On the other hand, as per below, the NWS is a bit less bullish with 1-3" from about 276/195 to 78 and 3-5" north of 78, but 1" or less south of 276/195 (including Philly/SNJ). Stay tuned.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...ng-sunday-nyc-li-s-of-i78-on-the-edge/page/3/

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
646 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For now, general consensus amongst forecast guidance is that this
system is trending slightly colder, meaning more snow is possible!
As precipitation begins on Saturday afternoon, most locales should
encounter a period of light snow as temperatures will be below or
around the freezing mark heading into Saturday night. However, a
modest ramp-up in warm air advection is anticipated to occur later
Saturday night as a warm nose aloft progresses northward. This will
result in a gradual change over to sleet and/or freezing rain from
south to north. Point forecast soundings suggest that freezing rain
may be favored over sleet so have included this potential in the
forecast. As temperatures warm overnight throughout the atmospheric
column, a changeover to plain rain is expected across the Delmarva
and most of the Coastal Plain. However, frozen precipitation may
hang on for the duration of the event especially up in the higher
elevations of the Lehigh Valley, Poconos and northern New Jersey.
The timings and specifics of the changeover are not yet set in
stone, but the greatest potential for a prolonged period of frozen
precipitation lies over the usual spots of the higher terrain areas.

In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for 0.40-0.70" of
liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, anticipate a
C-1" for the northern Delmarva and much of the I-95 corridor
including the Philadelphia metro. Just north of the I-95 corridor up
to and including the I-78 corridor, expecting 1-3". Once north of
the I-78 corridor and especially north of I-80, amounts upwards of 3-
5" are possible. There will also be freezing rain accretion over
most of the area, but amounts should generally range from a T-0.1"
(locally higher). Considering this, Winter Weather headlines will
likely be needed within the next 24-48 hours.

Added in the updated NWS snowfall and ice accumulation maps and Lee Goldberg's snowfall map. The NWS and Lee are fairly well aligned with less bullish snowfall amounts than either TWC or News12 (which are unchanged from those above) and it seems to me that the NWS/Lee are likely taking the conservative low end ~48 hours from the start of the event on Saturday late afternoon/early evening, while TWC/News12 are taking the aggressive high end. Will be interesting to see where we end up, but it at least seems likely that CNJ is going to get a couple of inches of snow with more possible.

As speculated above, the ice map from the NWS shows 0.1-0,25" of possible ice accretion from freezing rain for large swaths along and NW of 95 all the way up to 84 (and part of SNJ), as well as swaths of 0.01-0.10" for the rest of the region. As per another post, the NWS-NYC issued watches for their whole area (for 2-4" and some ice for NENJ/NYC/LI and for 4-7" north of the Tappan Zee) and I'm confdient we'll see similar watches (including ice potential) posted from the NWS-Philly by 4 am at the latest (or they might skip that and go directly to warnings along/N of 78 and advisories south of there).

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Let's push the model to dropping 8"+ snow in College Park MD , like to keep the Terp attendance down for Sunday's noon tip-off.

 

[rurichdog]

who is that in your icon?

Mad Dog Madison (real name Connie Madigan) from the movie Slap Shot.

 

[HeywoodGiant]

Mad Dog Madison (real name Connie Madigan) from the movie Slap Shot.

I thought it was ed van impe

 

[rurichdog]

We've had good snows in the past with the 540 line well north of us - it's just a rule-of-thumb. If it were that good of a guide, the models would simply use it directly to determine the rain/snow line, but they don't. Having said that one often needs something to overcome that impediment to snow, like very good dynamics aloft producing good rates and dynamic cooling. Or maybe those models will just be wrong, like most were on the snow vs. sleet today. No pros I know of were saying the precip would go almost directly to sleet when it started, so something was clearly missed.

I'm just going by what I learned in class. When the 540 line is progged to be north of the Connecticut coast, don't be shocked at how far north the rain/snow line races in. Again, I take a more holistic approach to looking at model output and what it might do. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. I did win the New Brunswick Forecasting Game in 98 and the RU Met Club Snow Pool in 99(?) so at one time I did know a thing or two. But if I was great I'd have won a few more. If I didn't have to work Sunday early I'd enjoy watching out the window with a glass of Four Roses. I don't get too wrapped up in all the model shifts and analyses.

 

[RU848789]

I'm just going by what I learned in class. When the 540 line is progged to be north of the Connecticut coast, don't be shocked at how far north the rain/snow line races in. Again, I take a more holistic approach to looking at model output and what it might do. Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong. I did win the New Brunswick Forecasting Game in 98 and the RU Met Club Snow Pool in 99(?) so at one time I did know a thing or two. But if I was great I'd have won a few more. If I didn't have to work Sunday early I'd enjoy watching out the window with a glass of Four Roses. I don't get too wrapped up in all the model shifts and analyses.

That's great!! iirc, you didn't go into meteorology though, but I don't recall why - care to refresh on that (just curious)? You would certainly know more about synoptics than I do, so I respect your opinion/experience on the 540 line, but I also have seen a couple of good pros talking about it being a decent first guess, but that it is often off due to other factors. I am starting to look at it more though, just to see if I can learn something. I like tracking a lot, but I love watching/enjoying snowstorms, especially at night when it's perfectly quiet and I get to walk around the silent neighborhood and maybe shovel some, throw a snowball or two, make an angel and of course make some measurements.

 

[RU848789]

Brief 0Z model summary (globals and meso/short-range models) below and the general message for CNJ is that there's still a decent range of outcomes on the models, but they're getting closer to consensus, as they should since we're 12 hours closer and less than 48 hours from the start of the event late Saturday afternoon, which should be largely done by 1-3 am Sunday for most. I'd say we're nearing consensus on a 3-5" event between 276/195 and 78 with a little more north of 78, but more variability south of 276/195. Will be interesting to see if the NWS. Lee Goldberg and others with similarly low forecasts bump theirs up a bit.

I also don't detail which model mixes when, where and how much sleet/freezing rain/rain they might show, because that's too complicated, but, in general, mixing/changeover are much more likely south of 78 and especially south of 276/195, which is why the models show less snow there. Some of the models also show appreciable (up to 1/4" or more) freezing rain for some locations south of 78 all the way down to Philly/SNJ - we won't have a good handle on that until close to the event, as ZR is very difficult to predict.

• The GFS shows 1-2" south of 276/195, 2-5" for 276/195 up to 80 and 5-7" N of 80 to 84
• The ICON shows 1-3" south of 276/195, then 3-5" from 276/195 to 78 and 5-7" from 78 to 84
• The CMC shows a general 3-5" for everyone north of a Wilmington to LBI line up to 84
• The UK shows 3-5" from Wilmington to LBI up 78 and shows 5-7" N of 78 up to 84
• The Euro shows 1-3" from a Swedesboro to LBI line up to 276/195 and then 3-5" from 276/195 to 78 and 5-6" from 78 to 84
• The NAM shows 3-5" from a Phillly-LBI line up to 80 and 5-7" from 80 to 84
• The RGEM shows 1-3" south of 276/195 and then 3-5" from 276/195 up to 80 and then 5-6" from 80 to 84

 

[WhiteBus]

This is looking just like yesterday. A sleet/freezing rain event except for the far North West.

 

[bac2therac]

Brief 0Z model summary (globals and meso/short-range models) below and the general message for CNJ is that there's still a decent range of outcomes on the models, but they're getting closer to consensus, as they should since we're 12 hours closer and less than 48 hours from the start of the event late Saturday afternoon, which should be largely done by 1-3 am Sunday for most. I'd say we're nearing consensus on a 3-5" event between 276/195 and 78 with a little more north of 78, but more variability south of 276/195. Will be interesting to see if the NWS. Lee Goldberg and others with similarly low forecasts bump theirs up a bit.

I also don't detail which model mixes when, where and how much sleet/freezing rain/rain they might show, because that's too complicated, but, in general, mixing/changeover are much more likely south of 78 and especially south of 276/195, which is why the models show less snow there. Some of the models also show appreciable (up to 1/4" or more) freezing rain for some locations south of 78 all the way down to Philly/SNJ - we won't have a good handle on that until close to the event, as ZR is very difficult to predict.

• The GFS shows 1-2" south of 276/195, 2-5" for 276/195 up to 80 and 5-7" N of 80 to 84
• The ICON shows 1-3" south of 276/195, then 3-5" from 276/195 to 78 and 5-7" from 78 to 84
• The CMC shows a general 3-5" for everyone north of a Wilmington to LBI line up to 84
• The UK shows 3-5" from Wilmington to LBI up 78 and shows 5-7" N of 78 up to 84
• The Euro shows 1-3" from a Swedesboro to LBI line up to 276/195 and then 3-5" from 276/195 to 78 and 5-6" from 78 to 84
• The NAM shows 3-5" from a Phillly-LBI line up to 80 and 5-7" from 80 to 84
• The RGEM shows 1-3" south of 276/195 and then 3-5" from 276/195 up to 80 and then 5-6" from 80 to 84

The Kutchera maps are lower across the board and with mixed precip or rain being an issue they would be wiser to use. Ratio will be below 10-1

Also the 6z nams were not impressive

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly disco..

With this being said, the first half of Saturday appears to be dry
as high pressure still remains partly in control. This will be short-
lived however as precipitation is expected to move into and
overspread the area from south to north during the afternoon hours.
While daytime high temperatures on Saturday are expected to be in
the 30s, thermal profiles suggest that once precipitation begins,
temperatures should drop to around/below freezing. This will support
a brief period of snow across much of the region later Saturday
afternoon. As low pressure tracks closer to the area, will see a
modest ramp-up in warm air advection occur as a warm nose aloft
around 850-925mb surges northward. Short-range guidance also depicts
a corridor of strong frontogenetic forcing will be accompanied with
the increase in WAA. This should allow an area of heavier
precipitation to develop before a changeover to sleet and freezing
rain occurs from south to north. This is supported quite well by
point forecast soundings as the depth of the warm layer increases
overnight. Eventually, a changeover to plain rain is expected
across the Delmarva and much of southern New Jersey early Sunday
morning. For areas across eastern Pennsylvania (outside of the
Philadelphia metro) and northern New Jersey, frozen precip will
likely continue through much of the overnight as cold air at
the surface hangs on a bit longer. Only the highest terrain
areas of the Poconos and northern New Jersey may remain all snow.

In terms of amounts, the current forecast calls for roughly 0.50-
0.75" of liquid QPF. Breaking this down into snow/sleet totals, a
coating to 1" is expected for much of the Delmarva, SE PA, and S NJ.
Further north, 1-3" of snow is expected north of the PA Turnpike up
toward the I-78 corridor. Once north of the I-78 corridor (and
especially north of I-80), snowfall amounts of 3-5" are expected.
Depending on how much sleet mixes in, totals will vary significantly.
There will also be a large swath of ice accretion across much of
the area. Greatest potential for ice accumulation in excess of 0.1"
will be along the I-95 corridor up into the Lehigh Valley. Considering
this and upon collaboration with neighboring forecast offices, Winter
Weather headlines will likely be warranted within the next 12 hours.

 

[bac2therac]

This is looking just like yesterday. A sleet/freezing rain event except for the far North West.

If Nam is correct for your area yes..what are the local TV Mets saying?

 

[bac2therac]

Also looks like it's moving a bit quicker and start time may be as early as 3 pm

 

[RocktheRac]

Yes. Zarrow saying afternoon start and rain issues.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Thinking about hitting the monmouth basketball game at 4 PM on Saturday, I live in Freehold and that’s in West Longbranch, 1 mile from the ocean

with the updated start time and rain issues, I presume it should not be an issue getting to and from the game?

 

[RULoyal]

Dan Zarrow

 

[WhiteBus]

If Nam is correct for your area yes..what are the local TV Mets saying?

No snow. Sleet and freezing rain. 6ABC news comes back on at 10 am.

 

[RU848789]

Added in the updated NWS snowfall and ice accumulation maps and Lee Goldberg's snowfall map. The NWS and Lee are fairly well aligned with less bullish snowfall amounts than either TWC or News12 (which are unchanged from those above) and it seems to me that the NWS/Lee are likely taking the conservative low end ~48 hours from the start of the event on Saturday late afternoon/early evening, while TWC/News12 are taking the aggressive high end. Will be interesting to see where we end up, but it at least seems likely that CNJ is going to get a couple of inches of snow with more possible.

As speculated above, the ice map from the NWS shows 0.1-0,25" of possible ice accretion from freezing rain for large swaths along and NW of 95 all the way up to 84 (and part of SNJ), as well as swaths of 0.01-0.10" for the rest of the region. As per another post, the NWS-NYC issued watches for their whole area (for 2-4" and some ice for NENJ/NYC/LI and for 4-7" north of the Tappan Zee) and I'm confdient we'll see similar watches (including ice potential) posted from the NWS-Philly by 4 am at the latest (or they might skip that and go directly to warnings along/N of 78 and advisories south of there).

Summary: NWS updated snow and ice maps for the Sat/Sun event, which should start as snow for everyone by mid-afternoon towards Philly/SNJ and late afternoon for CNJ/NNJ/NYC, are below, along with the snow maps from TWC and News12 (the Channel 7 map is unchanged and in the quoted post above); the event will go through the evening and wind down by 3-6 am Sunday. While there are similarities to yesterday's system, featuring mixing/changeovers, the big difference is significantly more snow for most prior to that, as currently forecast, which can still obviously change, as we're ~36 hours prior to the event.

I'd expect advisories and warnings to be issued by the NWS at 4 pm today. Maybe warnings N of 80/NW of 287 in NJ and N of 287 in NY for snowfall near or more than 6" and maybe advisories south of there down to at least 276/195 for a few to several inches of snow, plus some ice and even for areas forecast to get 2" or less, i.e., south of 276/195, as they'll still get some ice; even areas forecast to get <1" of snow, i.e., south of Philly to Toms River, will still likely get advisories due to the ice risk (except coastal NJ south of LBI).

One major caveat to all of the snowfall forecasts in the maps and discussion below: the NAM, once again, has cut back significantly at 6Z and 12Z, just now, forecasting much more sleet than snow for everyone south of about 80. Would still be very impactful to have 1-2" of sleet (same mass as 3-6" of snow at 3:1 sleet to liquid ratio vs. standard 10:1 snow to liquid ratios) and some ice on top of that instead of 3-6" of snow, but it certainly won't be as pretty or fun. Note that the NAM often does this for mix type storms and was right yesterday, but is often wrong (but given yesterday it has to be respected).

Details: The NWS bumped up snowfall amounts by about 1" for almost everyone, but their forecast is still less than what most models are showing, because they feel that the warm air advection aloft will be more pronounced than most models show, leading to an earlier mix/changeover to sleet and then freezing rain and maybe rain (at least south of 78). There are some similarities to their forecast for yesterday's event, except they are forecasting a fair amount more snow before any changeover, especially a bit north of 276/195, where the 2" line is, and certainly just south of 78 where the 3" line is and just north of 78 where the 4" line is, with 4-6" from there to 84 (and 6-8" beyond 84 and north of the Tappan Zee. Also, note the appreciable ice accumulation forecasts with 0.1-0.25" south of 80 in PA/NJ, including even along and a bit SE of 95 from Woodbridge to Wilmington - this would be a major issue if it verifies, especially given temps aren't forecast to go above 32F until 7-8 am N of 276/195 up to 78 and until 4-5 am towards Philly/SNJ.

Interestingly, TWC and News12 both cut back a bit on snowfall amounts and now their forecasts are much closer to the increased snowfall amounts the NWS has (which makes sense). Specifically they cut back south of 276/195 with their 1" lines being similar to the NWS (roughly Philly to Toms River), but both have 3" lines roughly from about Ewing to Asbury Park, which is not too different from yesterday and is further south than the NWS. Beyond that they have about 3-5"/3-6" up to 80 (and west of 287) and then up to about the Tappan Zee for NENJ/NYC, with 5-8/6-9" north of 80/NW of 287 and then north of the Tappan Zee (yesterday TWC had everyone N of 78 in their 5-8" swath, so this is a reduction due to the potential of some sleet). And Channel 7's forecast is unchanged from yesterday and is now the most conservative forecast of the ones I've discussed with their 2" and 4" lines a bit further north than the NWS and TWC/News12.

https://www.weather.gov/phi

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...g-sunday-nyc-li-s-of-i78-on-the-edge/page/10/

 

[RU848789]

The Kutchera maps are lower across the board and with mixed precip or rain being an issue they would be wiser to use. Ratio will be below 10-1

Also the 6z nams were not impressive

True, but to me it's early to use Kuchera, as we don't know well yet about snow formation aloft which drives ratios as much as max column temp which Kuchera uses, but yes, if Kuchera is right snow would be a bit less than 10:1, although the NWS and most media mets factor in ratios with their snowfall forecasts. And yes the 6Z and now 12Z NAMs cut way back on snow, replacing it with sleet (not rain), which is still pretty impactful for driving and removal, as we saw yesterday. The Pivotal vs. TT maps, below, show that most of the "snow" on TT is sleet, not rain (as TT counts sleet as 10:1 snow, while Pivotal doesn't count sleet at all); would be nice to have a sleet map. And the NAM is often overdone in mixing setups, even though it was right yesterday. We'll see soon.

 

[RU848789]

Thinking about hitting the monmouth basketball game at 4 PM on Saturday, I live in Freehold and that’s in West Longbranch, 1 mile from the ocean

with the updated start time and rain issues, I presume it should not be an issue getting to and from the game?

4 pm will likely be fine with very little accumulation yet and probably light snow, but 6-7 pm after the game would likely see an inch or so on the ground and snowing with temps <32F.

 

[bac2therac]

This is a 2-3 inch type event for central jersey property maybe a bit more if cold air holds on maybe a bit less if warm air moves in and we sleet and freezing rain

 

[bac2therac]

thats a basic 2-3 type event for central jersey...even in the 1 in 10 chance probability models you can see the chance of highest amounts which are you throwing around are small...the nws is actually not going conservative they are leaning towards covering their bases.

 

[bac2therac]

True, but to me it's early to use Kuchera, as we don't know well yet about snow formation aloft which drives ratios as much as max column temp which Kuchera uses, but yes, if Kuchera is right snow would be a bit less than 10:1, although the NWS and most media mets factor in ratios with their snowfall forecasts. And yes the 6Z and now 12Z NAMs cut way back on snow, replacing it with sleet (not rain), which is still pretty impactful for driving and removal, as we saw yesterday. The Pivotal vs. TT maps, below, show that most of the "snow" on TT is sleet, not rain (as TT counts sleet as 10:1 snow, while Pivotal doesn't count sleet at all); would be nice to have a sleet map. And the NAM is often overdone in mixing setups, even though it was right yesterday. We'll see soon.

the tropical tidbit maps are just awful to even look at not onlyfor specifics but they also portray they event as being bigger than it is, people see that map and freak as opposed to pivotal

 

[bac2therac]

the 12z nams were not good as all and i wasnt impressed by the 12z HRRR (which is a bit out of range right now),,,particularly the 3knam and hrrr both cut back on total precip total...showery type event will not lead to decent snowfall

the 12z rgem was a solid 2-4 hitter...with moreso 4s across central jersey and to the north, seemed to focus the heaviest precip in central jersey rather to the northeast like many other models

 

[bac2therac]

the 12z gfs has a really weird map and you see the gradient pretty insane...can go from less than an inch in western belle mead to 3 inches in somerville.....and really seems to focus things more so to the north and east

 

[RU848789]

the tropical tidbit maps are just awful to even look at not onlyfor specifics but they also portray they event as being bigger than it is, people see that map and freak as opposed to pivotal

I like the Pivotal maps better as they're clearer, but the meteorology is fine for TT - it's just that they've chosen to show sleet as part of snow, which is what the NWS does, but they show it at 10:1 ratios, which is wrong (the NWS does not do that). I do like, however, knowing the rough sleet amount by subtracting the Pivotal pure snow from the TT snow/sleet amount. Pretty sure some of the more expensive model service like WeatherBell have actual sleet maps, which would be nice.

 

[RU848789]

the 12z gfs has a really weird map and you see the gradient pretty insane...can go from less than an inch in western belle mead to 3 inches in somerville.....and really seems to focus things more so to the north and east

Posting Pivotal maps in mixed snow/sleet events is misleading, as it makes it look like there's no frozen precip for areas getting significant sleet (i.e., most areas showing less than 3-4" of pure snow). For the GFS, the comparison of the TT and Pivotal maps are also showing more sleet (a bit like the NAM) where the sleet amount = (TT "snow" (which includes 10:1 sleet) - Pivotal pure snow)/3; when they show the same amount of "snow" that means no sleet. Would be nice to have a sleet map and a pure snow map.