OT: Need advice for cool NCAA tourney game

[SkilletHead2]

OK guys. Need help with neat NCAA tourney game. I won last year by a lot and need to display this year that last year wasn't a fluke.

Here's the game: You pick 10 teams in the tourney. Any 10 you want. Each time your team wins, you get the number of points of the team's seed. Thus, if you pick a 12, and it wins twice and then loses, you get 24 points. I won last year with 178 points and next best was like 125 (I got super lucky). (If two guys pick exactly the same 10 teams, first man in gets the slate and other guy has to change at least one team.)

So you don't want to pick a #1 seed, as they max out at 6 points even if they win the whole thing. What you want is underdogs! Teams that will substantially outplay their seed.

So what do you think? Who should I take?

 

[WJLeggett]

It sounds like this format is very high on risk/reward.

Some teams that could win a few games from lower seeds in my opinion:
Ohio St, NC State, Northern Iowa, Wichita St, Michigan St, Providence.

I don't know if I would take them all and I won't even take all of them is a straight pool but I do think there is value in these teams.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

That pool would makes sense if it was seed PLUS 5. No one will take a top 3 seed.

 

[WJLeggett]

I could see taking a Kentucky as a "sure" 4 or 5 points to offset the couple of zeros you are likely to get. But no more than one or two of those types.

 

[SkilletHead2]

With 10 teams, you need an expected value for your picks of at least about a 13 or 14 to be competitive. That means a 7 that wins two, or three twelves who end up maybe winning a total of three games. It ain't easy, but with 30 or 40 guys playing, if you play it safe, you're sure to end up out of the money.

What I need are teams that are seeded too low for their value, and that have seedings of 3 or worse. Last year I hit gold on two or three really low seeds and walked away with it all.

So who really got a crap rating that was lower than it should be?

 

[RutgersJoe]

I am no expert, but at a glance for this pool I like S.F. Austin (12), SMU (6), Davidson (10), Ohio State (10), and UNC (4)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Originally posted by RutgersJoe:
I am no expert, but at a glance for this pool I like S.F. Austin (12), SMU (6), Davidson (10), Ohio State (10), and UNC (4)

I actually like Harvard as #13 and can see them getting to Final 16.

 

[SkilletHead2]

Excellent help here guys! I'll be making my picks probably tonight (New Zealand time).