OT: Nicole To Strike Central Fl Coast as Minimal Cat 1 and then hybrid system to have moderate impact on our area Fri/Sat

RU848789

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As per the seasonal tropical activity thread, it's now looking pretty likely that we'll see a new tropical (or subtropical) storm forming in the next few days to the east of the Bahamas and this system (Nicole or Owen, since there's also a potential TS forming in the central Atlantic and it's not clear which will form first) is both a tropical threat to FL and the SE US late this week and a hybrid system threat to the NE US, including our area, by next weekend. For FL and the SE US, the system has the potential to become a tropical/subtropical storm (but probably not a hurricane, although that can't be ruled out). It's still early, but models are indicating a FL landfall is possible by Thursday, leading to potentially flooding rains and some coastal flooding/surge, plus TS force winds can still do some damage.

For the northeast and our area, we could see a hybrid system (with some tropical characteristics and some non-tropical, i.e., more like a nor'easter) develop late in the week from the interaction of an approaching trough and upper level low NW of us and whatever tropical/subtropical entity we end up with along the SE coast - even if it's not a full-blown tropical system, the tropical moisture plume headed our way could be substantial leading to significant rainfall and potential urban/stream flooding and it's also possible we could see rough seas and some coastal flooding, although it's way too early to call for specific impacts. Worth watching this one...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 
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JFK20

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I’m flying to Orlando today, supposed to be coming back Friday morning. Would you book a flight back for Wednesday morning? Night? If I’m playing it safe?
 
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retired711

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As per the seasonal tropical activity thread, it's now looking pretty likely that we'll see a new tropical (or subtropical) storm forming in the next few days to the east of the Bahamas and this system (Nicole or Owen, since there's also a potential TS forming in the central Atlantic and it's not clear which will form first) is both a tropical threat to FL and the SE US late this week and a hybrid system threat to the NE US, including our area, by next weekend. For FL and the SE US, the system has the potential to become a tropical/subtropical storm (but probably not a hurricane, although that can't be ruled out). It's still early, but models are indicating a FL landfall is possible by Thursday, leading to potentially flooding rains and some coastal flooding/surge, plus TS force winds can still do some damage.

For the northeast and our area, we could see a hybrid system (with some tropical characteristics and some non-tropical, i.e., more like a nor'easter) develop late in the week from the interaction of an approaching trough and upper level low NW of us and whatever tropical/subtropical entity we end up with along the SE coast - even if it's not a full-blown tropical system, the tropical moisture plume headed our way could be substantial leading to significant rainfall and potential urban/stream flooding and it's also possible we could see rough seas and some coastal flooding, although it's way too early to call for specific impacts. Worth watching this one...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Many thanks for posting this. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty (as your post makes clear), but, as with your snow threads, it's good for all of us to keep an eye on possibilities like this.
 
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RU848789

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I’m flying to Orlando today, supposed to be coming back Friday morning. Would you book a flight back for Wednesday morning? Night? If I’m playing it safe?
If you want to be sure of getting back on time, Wednesday morning is best, as Nicole won't quite be impacting FL by then, but it's also possible that Friday morning would be ok, as Nicole will likely be well past Orlando by then, but conditions up here likely won't be too bad until later on Friday - that's a bit of a thread the needle scenario, though.
 

RU848789

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Well as of 5 am AST this morning, Nicole was born as a subtropical storm, but is forecast to transition to a tropical storm in the next day or so as it approaches the Bahamas and then the Florida coast on Thursday morning, as a potential Cat 1 hurricane (~75 mph winds are forecast by landfall) with West Palm Beach is currently the forecast landfall location, but the error bars on that are still pretty large, with the cone being anywhere from Key Largo to Cape Canaveral.

This is unlikely to be much more powerful than a minimal Cat 1 hurricane, but there will still likely be significant (but not catastrophic) rainfall/inland flooding (3-6" of rain) and storm surge/coastal flooding (3-5' of surge), with some wind damage also. After landfall in FL the storm might make it into the northern GOM, but will then be picked up by the approaching mid-latitude trough, recurving NE towards the coast of SC/NC, as a tropical storm by Saturday morning.

Even though that sounds far away from our area, the plume of tropical moisture from the storm interacting with the trough approaching our area will likely lead to a significant PRE (predecessor rain event) probably starting late Friday, with the potential for 2-4" of rain for our area and maybe some minor coastal flooding; however, the impacts up here are still highly uncertain at this time.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?start#contents

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 26.2N 69.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 08/1200Z 27.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
36H 09/0000Z 27.6N 74.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
48H 09/1200Z 26.9N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 26.6N 78.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 27.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 29.4N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 33.3N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

7DsP5Sz.png
 

Postman_1

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Hopefully Sunday will at least be nice here if this verifies. One good thing is it should bring down the majority of the leaves on my neighbors trees that all seem to go into my yard. Id rather get them all over with.
AL172022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

Rutgers Chris

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Was supposed to leave for Marco Island Sunday but our reservation was canceled due to hurricane damage. Naturally we switched the reservation to West Palm. Someone doesn’t want us visiting Florida
 
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e5fdny

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Many thanks for posting this. Obviously there's a lot of uncertainty (as your post makes clear), but, as with your snow threads, it's good for all of us to keep an eye on possibilities like this.
It was either this or deal with me for continuing the other thread.

So for that, @RU848789 I say…

you-have-chosen-wisely-choose.gif
 
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RU848789

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Hopefully Sunday will at least be nice here if this verifies. One good thing is it should bring down the majority of the leaves on my neighbors trees that all seem to go into my yard. Id rather get them all over with.
AL172022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Sunday should be sunny, chilly and dry, but probably a bit windy behind the front - rain will likely be over by Saturday night with the heaviest rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, but the rain could be quite heavy at times with 2-4" falling, likely leading to some urban/stream flooding.

nH3pDJK.png
 
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e5fdny

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Sunday should be sunny, chilly and dry, but probably a bit windy behind the front - rain will likely be over by Saturday night with the heaviest rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, but the rain could be quite heavy at times with 2-4" falling, likely leading to some urban/stream flooding.
Where? All over NJ or some spots worse than others?

Any expectation of that map sliding one way or another?
 

RU848789

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Where? All over NJ or some spots worse than others?

Any expectation of that map sliding one way or another?
Right now that map is the best guess, so it would mean widespread 2-4" rainfall everywhere in our region, but this is still several days away, so uncertainty is still high - the forecast track of Nicole did move inland a bit and often the heaviest rains are along and NW of the track so it's possible the heaviest rains will be NW of 95, but it's doubtful anywhere in our area will escape without at least 1" of rain - but a couple of models are showing 1" or less along the coast with 2" or more along and especially NW of 95, so stay tuned...

Y2As8nU.png
 

RU848789

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We have a 2pm flight out of Philly on Friday up to Syracuse - any chance of a delay?
Yes, especially since modeling is indicating Nicole's remnants moving faster than previously forecast, which means heavy rains and possibly high winds (the wind forecast is all over the place right now) could move in as early as late Friday morning in the Philly area.
 

e5fdny

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Right now that map is the best guess, so it would mean widespread 2-4" rainfall everywhere in our region, but this is still several days away, so uncertainty is still high - the forecast track of Nicole did move inland a bit and often the heaviest rains are along and NW of the track so it's possible the heaviest rains will be NW of 95, but it's doubtful anywhere in our area will escape without at least 1" of rain - but a couple of models are showing 1" or less along the coast with 2" or more along and especially NW of 95, so stay tuned...

Y2As8nU.png
Guesstimate on the slide?

East or West?

And is this something where if you’re on the edge it could be worse? Like more rain in the middle but higher winds as you move away from the center.
 

RU848789

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Guesstimate on the slide?

East or West?

And is this something where if you’re on the edge it could be worse? Like more rain in the middle but higher winds as you move away from the center.
Too early to guess right now, to be honest, other than to say what I said above, i.e., it's looking a bit more likely to have the heaviest rain NW of 95, but that could easily change.
 

RUPete

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Not good for traveling to RU-UMass Lowell if and its a big IF it happens
These are tough to predict. How much rain and where will it fall? Just need to be aware of the areas that normally flood along your route.
 

JFK20

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I’m not an experienced flyer, have never really had a flight with bad weather around.

I’m supposed to land Friday morning at 9:30 in Newark. Odds that they wind will be bad enough to delay? Also is there a website or model I can look at to give me updated wind forecast info?
 

RUPete

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Hopefully Sunday will at least be nice here if this verifies. One good thing is it should bring down the majority of the leaves on my neighbors trees that all seem to go into my yard. Id rather get them all over with.
AL172022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
You know, that's a very half-full way to look at things.
 
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e5fdny

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I’m not an experienced flyer, have never really had a flight with bad weather around.

I’m supposed to land Friday morning at 9:30 in Newark. Odds that they wind will be bad enough to delay? Also is there a website or model I can look at to give me updated wind forecast info?
Username checks out.
 

RU848789

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I’m not an experienced flyer, have never really had a flight with bad weather around.

I’m supposed to land Friday morning at 9:30 in Newark. Odds that they wind will be bad enough to delay? Also is there a website or model I can look at to give me updated wind forecast info?
you'll be on the edge of ok, as the heaviest rain up at EWR should be after noon, but that could still change and be earlier...I'm partial to the NWS meteorologist discussions and here's the latest (they do major updates twice a day around 4 am and 4 pm)...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds north around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20
to 25 kts possible. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds northeasterly near 5 kts for the more
northwestern zones and around 5 to 10 kts for the more southeastern
zones. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR conditions. Winds mostly
light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Friday and Saturday...Likely to have MVFR and IFR conditions for
much of this period, especially from 18Z Friday to 12Z Saturday. Due
to both low ceilings and visibility restrictions in periods of heavy
rain. Southeasterly winds Friday, abruptly shifting to Westerly and
Northwesterly on Saturday. Wind speeds could be 15 g 25 KT with
gusts to 35 KT, but low confidence on the wind speed forecast.
Moderate confidence on the overall forecast, but low confidence on
timing and wind speed details.
 

RUfinally2008

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you'll be on the edge of ok, as the heaviest rain up at EWR should be after noon, but that could still change and be earlier...I'm partial to the NWS meteorologist discussions and here's the latest (they do major updates twice a day around 4 am and 4 pm)...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds north around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20
to 25 kts possible. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds northeasterly near 5 kts for the more
northwestern zones and around 5 to 10 kts for the more southeastern
zones. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR conditions. Winds mostly
light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Friday and Saturday...Likely to have MVFR and IFR conditions for
much of this period, especially from 18Z Friday to 12Z Saturday. Due
to both low ceilings and visibility restrictions in periods of heavy
rain. Southeasterly winds Friday, abruptly shifting to Westerly and
Northwesterly on Saturday. Wind speeds could be 15 g 25 KT with
gusts to 35 KT, but low confidence on the wind speed forecast.
Moderate confidence on the overall forecast, but low confidence on
timing and wind speed details.
So planning on going to the Toms River North vs Kingsway at 6:00pm on Friday night, for the Final Round South Jersey Group 5. Any chance the rain could be out of here by then?
 

RU4Real

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I’m not an experienced flyer, have never really had a flight with bad weather around.

I’m supposed to land Friday morning at 9:30 in Newark. Odds that they wind will be bad enough to delay? Also is there a website or model I can look at to give me updated wind forecast info?

With large systems like this there's the whole aspect of traffic management to consider that makes focusing on destination weather inadequate.

The very last thing airlines want is for planes to be stuck on the ground somewhere. If there's a possibility that after your flight lands in Philly it won't be able to leave then the airline will cancel the inbound flight. This holds true throughout the area affected by the storm. It's a good exercise to track your service aircraft throughout its entire itinerary, i.e. look up where your plane is coming from en route to your departure point and track that flight to see if it's canceled or delayed. You can do this on the airline's web site or on useful apps like FlightAware or FlightRadar24.
 

RU205

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Right now that map is the best guess, so it would mean widespread 2-4" rainfall everywhere in our region, but this is still several days away, so uncertainty is still high - the forecast track of Nicole did move inland a bit and often the heaviest rains are along and NW of the track so it's possible the heaviest rains will be NW of 95, but it's doubtful anywhere in our area will escape without at least 1" of rain - but a couple of models are showing 1" or less along the coast with 2" or more along and especially NW of 95, so stay tuned...

Y2As8nU.png
I have a flight on Thursday scheduled to land in Tampa at 3PM. I guess that will be canceled?
 

newell138

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you'll be on the edge of ok, as the heaviest rain up at EWR should be after noon, but that could still change and be earlier...I'm partial to the NWS meteorologist discussions and here's the latest (they do major updates twice a day around 4 am and 4 pm)...

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Winds north around 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20
to 25 kts possible. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. Winds northeasterly near 5 kts for the more
northwestern zones and around 5 to 10 kts for the more southeastern
zones. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR conditions. Winds mostly
light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Friday and Saturday...Likely to have MVFR and IFR conditions for
much of this period, especially from 18Z Friday to 12Z Saturday. Due
to both low ceilings and visibility restrictions in periods of heavy
rain. Southeasterly winds Friday, abruptly shifting to Westerly and
Northwesterly on Saturday. Wind speeds could be 15 g 25 KT with
gusts to 35 KT, but low confidence on the wind speed forecast.
Moderate confidence on the overall forecast, but low confidence on
timing and wind speed details.

I was planning on going for a walk Friday night, should I wait until Saturday night? What type of outerwear would you suggest?
 
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How the heck did we get up to "N" in the Atlantic storm alphabet this year? It was so quiet, for so long. Maybe they should name the "fish storms" after fish and save the alphabet. That way, when the alarmists mention a storm named.. oh.. Albacore.. you can safely stop listening.
 

e5fdny

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How the heck did we get up to "N" in the Atlantic storm alphabet this year? It was so quiet, for so long. Maybe they should name the "fish storms" after fish and save the alphabet. That way, when the alarmists mention a storm named.. oh.. Albacore.. you can safely stop listening.
I like that idea.
 

Postman_1

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Looks to have sped up and shifted inland a bit compared to yesterdays map.
AL172022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 

RU848789

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RU848789

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Looks like I picked a bad weekend to go camping
Maybe not - rain should be over for most by late Saturday morning (especially for SNJ) and the rest of the weekend is likely to be dry and clear, although much cooler by Saturday night and Sunday, with highs in the 40s.
 

RU848789

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So planning on going to the Toms River North vs Kingsway at 6:00pm on Friday night, for the Final Round South Jersey Group 5. Any chance the rain could be out of here by then?
Very unlikely - that will probably be the height of the storm for most and even though the trend has been towards less rain SE of 95 and especially at the Shore, right now that might mean 1-2" from Friday morning through Saturday morning vs. 2-4" of rain NW of 95 during that timeframe. There's still a small possibility less rain falls at the coast, but not worth counting on that.
 
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RUfinally2008

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Very unlikely - that will probably be the height of the storm for most and even though the trend has been towards less rain SE of 95 and especially at the Shore, right now that might mean 1-2" from Friday morning through Saturday morning vs. 2-4" of rain NW of 95 during that timeframe. There's still a small possibility less rain falls at the coast, but not worth counting on that.
Thanks, I'll be checking HS football sites. I'd bet those Friday night games will be moved to Saturday Nights and maybe those Saturday afternoon games will be moved to Sunday. I seem to recall that being done in the past.
 

RU848789

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How the heck did we get up to "N" in the Atlantic storm alphabet this year? It was so quiet, for so long. Maybe they should name the "fish storms" after fish and save the alphabet. That way, when the alarmists mention a storm named.. oh.. Albacore.. you can safely stop listening.
Maybe you should research just a tiny bit before posting, as your post is way off base. There were only two storms that had minimal TS force winds this season (40 mph). Colin was a TS for 18 hours and Hermine was a TS for about 24 hours, meaning they likely would've been detected in any year. Plus, there were two storms that came very close to becoming named systems, with 35 mph winds, but these were never named, as they didn't quite make it to 40 mph (39 mph really, but they always report windspeeds at 5 mph increments). If the NHC wanted to pad stats, I'm sure they could have figured out a way to have these two named, but fortunately, they're good scientists, with high integrity, who simply let the data do the talking. I suggest you do likewise.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml

Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Alex 5-6 Jun 70*
TS Bonnie 1-2 Jul 50
TS Colin 2-3 Jul 40
H Danielle 1-8 Sep 90
H Earl 3-10 Sep 105
MH Fiona 14-24 Sep 130
TS Gaston 20-26 Sep 65
MH Ian 23-30 Sep 155
TS Hermine 23-25 Sep 40
TD Eleven 28-29 Sep 35
TD Twelve 4-5 Oct 35
H Julia 6-9 Oct 85
TS Karl 11-15 Oct 60
TS Lisa 31- Oct 45
---------------------------------------------------
 

RU848789

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Looks to have sped up and shifted inland a bit compared to yesterdays map.
AL172022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Yep, that's correct. If you're interested, the NHC has a very cool tool which allows one to look at the evolution of the forecast track map over time from the naming of the storm through the end of its life - makes it easier to see the shifts over time. I know I've seen some folks animate this, but I don't see that option at the NHC site. I just wish they'd attach forecast wind speeds to each data point along the line.

I'm including the graphic from 7 pm EST tonight. Might seem redundant, but the one you posted is a "live" graphic link that will update as the source updates (which is why your graphic from yesterday is now today's) - it's why I started using imgur a few years ago, as I got very frustrated with graphics updating when I wanted them to reflect what they were at the time posted.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/NICOLE_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

VT8EHzB.png
 
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retired711

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This is irrelevant to the precise topic, but I think maps like the one above -- showing the cone within which the center may move -- should be dumped. My understanding is that the evidence shows that people do not understand them. People think that if they live outside the cone, they have no worries. I realize that the map clearly says that hazardous conditions can occur outside the cone, but that message doesn't get through. It would be better, IMHO, to have a map that shows all of the area with a significant chance of being affected by the storm, and to differentiate within that map by probabilities (so that, for instance, Pittsburgh is shown as having a lower probability of being affected by Philadelphia.) But what do I know.