Affirmative. Should be winds out of the west during that period, so the good news is it's working against the tide.
OT: NJ weather: Tropical storm could bring flooding, rip currents in the next few days
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Affirmative. Should be winds out of the west during that period, so the good news is it's working against the tide.
Maybe you should leave weather predictions to #'s,clearly you don't know Jack, as with most of what you post.:Shocked
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I mean the heavy, heavy rain is mostly over - there could still be occasional showers through the evening, but it won't be like it was the last several hours.
You're not done yet and everyone in Sussex County has at least 1.5", at least by radar - should be another 0.5-1.0" in NW NJ. But likely only another 1/4'-1/2" south of about 78 and probably <1/4" more south of 195.
According to Rutgers parts of Sussex have 2" so far. There are towns in So Jersey that reported over 5".
3.13” of rain so far in JC. Rain looks to be almost done. Wind gusts are picking up though. I’ve got a young tree (only 5 feet tall) that looks like it might go over.
A general 2-4" for most of NJ and nearby DE, SE PA, SE NY, with lollipops to 6" in parts of SWNJ and CNJ so far, as per the radar graphic. Pretty impressive. Got 2.75" at our house in Metuchen with 90% of that between about 12-3 pm and only some occasional showers since then. Could still get another 1/4" or so in showers south of 78 and maybe another 1/4-1/2" north of 78 and especially in NWNJ. Fay made landfall at 5 pm about 10 miles NNE of AC. Also, rainfall amounts in selected locations below...
Yep, was looking at those when I posted - just hadn't got around to posting the images - just got them up...
Definitely not. It was just a lot of much needed rain. Big whoop.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
So it was a lightly windy day with some rain; basically New Orleans on any summer afternoon...have they linked this to climate change yet...? (because you know they are itching to...) [roll]
KS - yes, he did, as per below. As I said in my last response to him in the other thread, below, I have no idea why he continues to make posts like these, especially when they often blow up in his face, like this time. I compliment him all the time on his hoops posts, especially on the tourney selection analyses, but he seems unable to reciprocate on a subject I obviously know more about than he does. Weather threads would be far more productive if he did.
looks like CMC, whatever that is (Canadian Meteorological Center), was the winner... so far.. and it was the outlier.. didn't look much like any of the othersModel tracks for what may soon become Tropical storm Fay:
BTW.. BAC and #s.. you two have been going at eachother over weather threads for decades now.. PLURAL.. iirc.. it all started over who would get to be the one to post the weather thread first for an upcoming game.. then if the 2nd guy in would start his own thread.. the bickering began. Snow-weenies.. blah blah blah.. you are both nuts and neither of you should pretend otherwise.
Last thing.. this site is pretty cool.. go hit play to see the model runs one after the other... all for GFS I think.. still cool
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Guilty on being a bit nuts, but I started doing the winter weather and gameday threads well before anyone else.
Not how I remember it... unless you mean a week before. There was definitely a catfight going on, very early, about who can post a weather thread and when they can post it.
IIRC, someone posted a weather thread with a link to the weather channel and you mocked him badly. And BAC might make a weather thread 6 days out from a game and you'd come in and tell him the forecasts are worthless more than 5 days out (or similar numbers). I am uncertain who was "first".. but you were both very territorial and both mocked each other.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Being territorial with weather threads is hilarious...as an actual meteorologist I find the whole idea entertaining and puzzling...but mostly entertaining!
weather queens...there are so many![roll]
weather queens...there are so many![roll]
+1
As a real expert, why don't you take over for the amateurs? Bac is pretty good, but others are very hit or miss.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
No one is really posting any original content...it comes from either a university met department or from where it should come from, the NWS. Now you can analyze the hell out of it all you want, but no one here can claim original content (unless you run your own model which I’m 100% certain no one does)
weather queens were a think back in the mid 80s and are stronger than ever now. It does give one a chuckle though, though I always think, you could just go get this yourself at weather.gov or a myriad of other sites that simply re-package what the NWS or NOAA or the NHC originate.
chuckles and food fights is my main interest, though. (cheap entertainment):Wink:
While I appreciate what is done by people on here those in bold are what I really use and rely on.
+1
Any weather thread should just link to NWS and be done with it. The "analyses" that some do are comical. They type and type and type about nothing new. No value beyond NWS whatsoever.
Should football or basketball discussions be nothing more than posting articles from ESPN or NJ.com? Should only those who played in college or pros be allowed to comment?
When it comes to synoptics, you're correct, as we're all taking output from models or professional meteorologists and generally repackaging it for this particular audience. However, there have been countless times in these threads that I've analyzed a model suite and predicted a forecast would change by X, hours before anyone else, including the NWS, has done so, and then they come along and reach the same or similar conclusions and change their forecast by X. So people here might get a 2-3 hour jump on what's going to happen. And sometimes the NWS and local media mets are simply not seeing things well for some reason and I've come out and made a very different prediction, like for the Nov-2018 "surprise" snowstorm that really shouldn't have been that much of a surprise. That's under your "analyzing the hell" out of things, which I think can add value.
With regard to scientific insights into meteorology, however, you're simply wrong. Having a PhD in chemical engineering means I've learned significantly more about the fundamental sciences that both chem eng'g and meteorology rely on, such as momentum, heat and mass transfer, thermodynamics and physical chemistry, relative to the vast majority of BS meteorologists out there. This is why I've been able to provide insights into esoteric but important discussions on things like dynamic cooling and how that impacts snow vs. rain at the surface, atmospheric lift and how that leads to supersaturation-driven vapor phase nucleation and growth of ice crystals in the dendritic growth zone, evaluating energy balances around accumulation and melting, which has often allowed me to predict better than most what road conditions would be like in marginal situations.
In addition I've run complex, non-linear, 3-D computational fluid dynamics models for small scale chemical reactors at work, which use essentially the same equations as the weather models, just applied over a much smaller scale - but including elements the weather models don't, such as chemical reactions/kinetics, where composition is constantly changing, which doesn't occur in weather systems. That gives me insights into models, model parameters, Fourier Transform driven ensemble forecasting approaches and more. Doesn't mean I'm "running my own models," but having done these things certainly helps me understand a fair amount more than the average met about such models. Having said all that, I'd agree that the extra scientific insights/modeling knowledge probably have little impact on ~80% of my weather posts or any specific weather situation, but there are some times where it can make a difference.
I've also said many times that for what most on this board are looking for, they can get what they need from any number of on-line services, but some seem to like what I and others, including bac (when we're not arguing, lol) and a few mets on here, post. In addition one of the biggest things they get here is nearly immediate, pretty good answers to their specific weather questions about their backyard or travel conditions with regard to roads or even airports, which folks seem to value. Just like people come here for decent info and discussions on installing furnaces, comparing the latest sports cars, estate planning, who has the best pizza/wings/burgers etc., and answering important questions like why is Tre Timbers's head so large, they like being able to come here for decent weather info and discussions...including some drama on occasion.
Why would you "remember" this better than I do? I started doing them first, period. Plenty of others commented, as one might expect and after not too long bac started some weather threads too, which is fine - in fact, I've never cared who started weather threads (other than when that person won't update the thread title, which is something I do regularly) and being a weather nut couldn't give a shit if there were 10 weather threads; territorial, no, mocking, sure at times. For years, though, John O. didn't like multiple weather threads on the football board (or too many OT threads) and would ask me to simply start them early enough so that others wouldn't. He also asked me to post them on Premium, which I did for many years, as he thought that was a minor selling point for the site. That's also why he asked me to post my weather content on the Scarlet Nation free/premium sites, which I do for gameday threads and winter weather (and sometimes tropical).
Back in the day you just looked up in the sky for the day's forcast.
No, not that I recall. RU#'s was the first one to consistently post weather threads for upcoming games or predicted snow storms. That doesn't preclude that others in the past occasionally would post that type of thread, but he was the first to always do it.
And, yes, John O did ask him to start doing it earlier in the week because certain people wanted to get the jump on him just to be petty.
Yes.. RU#s made a habit of it.. but someone else was doing it AND you just confirmed that there was a little pettiness going on as to who would post "OFFICIAL: weather thread".. first. Why would there be pettiness about it unless others thought they had been doing it or that it was not the sole province of RU#s?
John O could have posted a sticky saying RU3s was the official weatherman. That might have prevented some of the pettiness. Imagine if you had posted a weather thread citing weather.com and you got mocked by RU#s and then he started doing it.. and, as admitted, he did it earlier and earlier at John O's request. That would seem fairly petty on RU3s part to that person. Also.. this all started back in Keth's days, iirc. and the pettiness continues.
Guys it's raining!! Do I get a star sticker for posting it first???
It is always fun when Tango or another poster starts a weather thread first. You can see the juvenile pettiness in #'s posts.
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No one discussed what the weather would be for gameday until you came along. That's your argument?
So you didn't see a weather thread citing weather.com and say.. I can do better?
It wouldn't surprise me that your weather thread didn't follow what you did with CoVid. With CoVid, there was a thread on the CE board where you mocked people as alarmists. Then, when you realize it really is a big deal.. you go to the football board to start a thread... which was a good idea. But that's how I think you became the weather guy and why some people resented you for it.
Not me.. because I did then what I am doing now.. merely pointing out that you people are nuts about crap like this. You and BAC are two of a kind in that regard. You tuned your weather reports as the date drew near and then took credit for getting things right.. while simultaneously saying you don't make predictions, just report what others are saying.. yet still taking the kudos when people say you "nailed it". BAC does the same thing with his NCAA field predictions.. sometimes saying that he got them all correct last year not mentioning how many of his earlier versions were wrong. Same for the weather forecasts.. or tropical storm season forecasts..guesses.. or the millions of coming CoVid deaths.. etc etc.
Just look at these weather threads.. you say the storm is unlikely to produce 2 inches or more and would start a thread if need be. You barely mention the possibility of 4-8 inches. BAC mocks you saying the storm is unlikey to take a dangerous path inland. You resent that.. properly.. but still don't commit to saying it is likely.. nor do you start a weather thread.. clearly indicating you find it highly unlikely... AGREEING with BAC. THEN.. when the unlikely happens.. you come back to mock BAC... when you agreed with him. And others joined you mocking BAC and his brother.
You really cannot make this stuff up. It is quite the show. You are all nuts... and that's my job.. pointing that out.
