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OT: NJ weather: Tropical storm could bring flooding, rip currents in the next few days

Tango Two

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Aug 21, 2001
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North Brunswick, New Jersey
A storm developing near South Carolina coast could soon form into a tropical or subtropical cyclone along the New Jersey coast, according to the National Hurricane Center at the National Weather Service.

There is a 60% chance that the storm turns into a tropical or subtropical cyclone within the next two days, according to the Weather Service. Within the next five days, there's a 70% likelihood the storm becomes a cyclone.

Even if the storm doesn't become a cyclone, heavy rainfall can be expected along the entire east coast for the rest of the week and weekend, from North Carolina to New England. Flash flooding in certain areas may be expected.


https://www.mycentraljersey.com/sto.../08/nj-weather-tropical-storm-fay/5398567002/
 
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70% chance of Tropical Storm Fay forming: A broad area of low pressure located near the coast of northeastern
South Carolina continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the adjacent Atlantic waters and portions of eastern North Carolina. The low is expected to move northeastward near or just offshore of the North Carolina Outer Banks on Thursday, and then turn north-northeastward and move along the mid-Atlantic coast Friday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form within the next day or so.
Regardless of development, the system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall that could cause some flash flooding across portions of eastern North Carolina, the coastal mid-Atlantic, and southern New England during the next few days. Gusty winds are also possible along the North Carolina Outer Banks through Thursday and along the mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts Friday and Saturday.

106202452_3218142798229284_7728191518753971063_n.png
 
Hmmmm, someone seems to be distracted from his usual duties. Thanks for the heads up.
 
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Sort of an Irene-ish situation, it would appear. But without the extensive development history and nowhere near the precip amounts.
 
we are all domed - now a rain storm is called a cyclone. what a time we are living in.
 
we are all domed - now a rain storm is called a cyclone. what a time we are living in.
They have a quota and a high number of storms to meet...having been a guest on NHC telecons with the NWS office in Charleston, they are very good at playing the numbers game. Forecast of least regret...it is a fascinating psychology they engage in...
 
They have a quota and a high number of storms to meet...

There's definitely observational bias. I've long said that the number of storms is generally increasing because of the classification of storms that, not too long ago, would have been barely observed.

That said, the only way around it would be to change the criteria.
 
Sort of an Irene-ish situation, it would appear. But without the extensive development history and nowhere near the precip amounts.

Not exactly. Little wind to speak of (maybe 30-40 mph at the coast and less inland) for a TS and minimal, if any, tidal flooding, unless unexpected strengthening occurs, which is unlikely with still cool water temps in this latitude. This one, as modeled currently (always subject to change) is mostly a rainmaker and that part of the forecast is very tricky, with two current camps.

As of now about 2-4" of rain is being shown for most of the Philly-NYC corridor and points within 50-75 miles of 95 on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast vs. 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (and less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore (from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, mostly), for what it's worth.

Not quite the 4-8" some models were showing over the Atlantic a day ago, as some of us were "discussing" in the t-storm thread, when the track was 150-200 miles offshore, but 2-4" would still bring flooding rains for some if the track along the coast verifies. Should have a much better handle on the track once the TS forms (should be by Thursday morning) and certainly by tomorrow night, even if we don't get a TS, as we're not that far out.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...fay-for-friday-saturday-morning/?_fromLogin=1

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We continue to keep a very close eye on the low that will be
approaching our region from the south on Thursday night. The
guidance has been trending westward with the track, so the
feature may pass over or very near our region from Friday into
Friday night.

The low is not forecast to be particularly strong by the time
it reaches our area, so the wind is not much of a concern.
However, it will have a good deal of moisture associated with
it. There is the potential for widespread heavy rain in
northeastern Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania. The recent heavy rainfall in parts of our region
has increased our susceptibility to flooding. We will work to
refine the threat area as we get closer to the event. It appears
as though most of the heavy rain will lift to our north on
Friday night.
 
Not exactly. Little wind to speak of (maybe 30-40 mph at the coast and less inland) for a TS and minimal, if any, tidal flooding, unless unexpected strengthening occurs, which is unlikely with still cool water temps in this latitude. This one, as modeled currently (always subject to change) is mostly a rainmaker and that part of the forecast is very tricky, with two current camps.

As of now about 2-4" of rain is being shown for most of the Philly-NYC corridor and points within 50-75 miles of 95 on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast vs. 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (and less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore (from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, mostly), for what it's worth.

Not quite the 4-8" some models were showing over the Atlantic a day ago, as some of us were "discussing" in the t-storm thread, when the track was 150-200 miles offshore, but 2-4" would still bring flooding rains for some if the track along the coast verifies. Should have a much better handle on the track once the TS forms (should be by Thursday morning) and certainly by tomorrow night, even if we don't get a TS, as we're not that far out.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...fay-for-friday-saturday-morning/?_fromLogin=1

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We continue to keep a very close eye on the low that will be
approaching our region from the south on Thursday night. The
guidance has been trending westward with the track, so the
feature may pass over or very near our region from Friday into
Friday night.

The low is not forecast to be particularly strong by the time
it reaches our area, so the wind is not much of a concern.
However, it will have a good deal of moisture associated with
it. There is the potential for widespread heavy rain in
northeastern Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania. The recent heavy rainfall in parts of our region
has increased our susceptibility to flooding. We will work to
refine the threat area as we get closer to the event. It appears
as though most of the heavy rain will lift to our north on
Friday night.

That was kinda my point. Irene didn't pack much wind, either. 13" of rain, though. Here, at least. Spent the entire night pumping out my pool.
 
That was kinda my point. Irene didn't pack much wind, either. 13" of rain, though. Here, at least. Spent the entire night pumping out my pool.

Irene put 15" or so of flood water in my area but that storm hit during a monthly high tide phase (as did Sandy). We passed this month's high phase this past weekend.
 
last night accuweather.com was forcasting about
0.6 inches of rain during the day on Friday, and 2
inches at night....

this morning the night forecast was cut back to 0.6
inches, so, hopefully this is an indication of the storm not being as bad as thought up here in NE Jersey
 
last night accuweather.com was forcasting about
0.6 inches of rain during the day on Friday, and 2
inches at night....

this morning the night forecast was cut back to 0.6
inches, so, hopefully this is an indication of the storm not being as bad as thought up here in NE Jersey

Most of NJ really needs the rain.

Where I am, we've been touched by many smaller thunderstorms but 15-25 miles to the southeast, those towns look dry and arid.
 
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Most of NJ really needs the rain.

Where I am, we've been touched by many smaller thunderstorms but 15-25 miles to the southeast, those towns look dry and arid.

I hope the areas you mention get what they need....up in the NE we got hit pretty hard with the Monday rain, more than expected..... so personally would not want a lot more for my property....
 
Let's talk about the most important recipient of weather forecasts - outdoor dining! @RU848789 do you think Friday from 4p-12am will be a washout? Weather has never made such a dent in my pocket before!
 
I hope the areas you mention get what they need....up in the NE we got hit pretty hard with the Monday rain, more than expected..... so personally would not want a lot more for my property....

Coming back from Belmar, towns like Whippany, Parsippany, Denville, Rockaway, I saw brown and yellow grass.

Up here it's green, we have gotten hit by many thunderstorms in the last month.

I think those areas mentioned didn't.
 
Let's talk about the most important recipient of weather forecasts - outdoor dining! @RU848789 do you think Friday from 4p-12am will be a washout? Weather has never made such a dent in my pocket before!
The official NWS forecast and most media forecasts are for a complete washout (1-2" of rain) from Friday late morning through early Saturday morning for NB. However, some of the major models are showing 1/2" or less of rain during that timeframe, so there's still some chance this mostly misses to our east. The problem is the gradient in rainfall from west to east looks to be very steep, so a 50 mile shift west or east, which is not a large shift, makes for huge differences in rainfall amounts for NB (and everywhere else). I'd say it's at least likely to be a washout for you, but that there's some chance it won't be. My guess is we won't have any model consensus until at least tonight's runs.
 
The official NWS forecast and most media forecasts are for a complete washout (1-2" of rain) from Friday late morning through early Saturday morning for NB. However, some of the major models are showing 1/2" or less of rain during that timeframe, so there's still some chance this mostly misses to our east. The problem is the gradient in rainfall from west to east looks to be very steep, so a 50 mile shift west or east, which is not a large shift, makes for huge differences in rainfall amounts for NB (and everywhere else). I'd say it's at least likely to be a washout for you, but that there's some chance it won't be. My guess is we won't have any model consensus until at least tonight's runs.

doesn’t sound promising. I’ll check here for an update after tonight’s runs. :).
Maybe we should have an outdoor dining weather report?
 
Not exactly. Little wind to speak of (maybe 30-40 mph at the coast and less inland) for a TS and minimal, if any, tidal flooding, unless unexpected strengthening occurs, which is unlikely with still cool water temps in this latitude. This one, as modeled currently (always subject to change) is mostly a rainmaker and that part of the forecast is very tricky, with two current camps.

As of now about 2-4" of rain is being shown for most of the Philly-NYC corridor and points within 50-75 miles of 95 on the GFS and NAM with the low coming right up along the coast vs. 1/2-1" of rain on the Euro (which was showing 2-4" of rain for the area in its previous two runs) UK, and CMC (and less well inland, with the 1" amounts at the coast) with the track 100+ miles offshore (from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, mostly), for what it's worth.

Not quite the 4-8" some models were showing over the Atlantic a day ago, as some of us were "discussing" in the t-storm thread, when the track was 150-200 miles offshore, but 2-4" would still bring flooding rains for some if the track along the coast verifies. Should have a much better handle on the track once the TS forms (should be by Thursday morning) and certainly by tomorrow night, even if we don't get a TS, as we're not that far out.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...fay-for-friday-saturday-morning/?_fromLogin=1

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We continue to keep a very close eye on the low that will be
approaching our region from the south on Thursday night. The
guidance has been trending westward with the track, so the
feature may pass over or very near our region from Friday into
Friday night.

The low is not forecast to be particularly strong by the time
it reaches our area, so the wind is not much of a concern.
However, it will have a good deal of moisture associated with
it. There is the potential for widespread heavy rain in
northeastern Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey and eastern
Pennsylvania. The recent heavy rainfall in parts of our region
has increased our susceptibility to flooding. We will work to
refine the threat area as we get closer to the event. It appears
as though most of the heavy rain will lift to our north on
Friday night.
Raritan looked a little high today on my way into NB after some of the rains we had this week. Could have been a tide thing though...
 
Does anyone remember a storm in March 2010 that was supposed to stay out to sea, but it came just close enough to hammer Jersey? It hit on a Saturday into a Sunday. My brother lives in West Chester, PA and he was like, "What the hell is going on by you? It's fine over here."
 
doesn’t sound promising. I’ll check here for an update after tonight’s runs. :).
Maybe we should have an outdoor dining weather report?
I think the outdoor dining report is a great idea- read that Somerville is trying to get approval for outdoor dining on Main Street, Saturdays 10a-10p. It has been tough for them because it's a state road (Route 28).
 
That was kinda my point. Irene didn't pack much wind, either. 13" of rain, though. Here, at least. Spent the entire night pumping out my pool.
Irene was originally a minimal hurricane at landfall on Brigantine, but later reanalyzed and downgraded to a tropical storm with max winds of 70 mph, and was the biggest natural disaster to ever strike NJ (until dwarfed by Sandy the next year). We got about 10" of rain, as did much of CNJ/NNJ, and we had 50 mph wind gusts and lost one large tree, and I spent the overnight hours figuring out ways to pump the water out of two basement windows that were leaking into the basement (finishing that part of the basement meant the water no longer ran down the cinderblock into the French drain - neither the contractor nor I ever really thought about that), using one portable pump; an hour into it, I rigged up a plastic contraption to divert the water running down one of the walls (that was missing the drain and falling onto the floor) into the utility sink, so I only had to focus on pumping out one of the window wells. Power blipped several times, but we never lost it or else the basement would've been toast (although I may have just torn off the drywall below the window to allow the water to drain into the French drain or I would've had to manually bail out the window wells every 10 minutes). The biggest source of the problem was a clogged gutter meaning much more water than usual was falling onto one side of the house. The basement windows obviously weren't water tight. Insane night for us.
 
Hmmmm, someone seems to be distracted from his usual duties. Thanks for the heads up.
And the guy’s retired now too. Jeesh, what the hell is doing all day? LOL

I even gave him permission to start a thread on this if he felt it was warranted.
 
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Model tracks for what may soon become Tropical storm Fay:

107795374_3219510424759188_8605516237836212111_o.jpg

That map is not particularly helpful, as this is not a typical tropical system and those are mostly tropical models. The global and mesoscale models are the ones to watch here and unfortunately, they're all over the place right now with track and intensity, including the 12Z models coming out now. GFS is a serious rainstorm (2-3"), while the NAM and CMC are modest storms with <1/2" for most, except along the coast with more. Pros are going to have a very tough forecast to make with such model variability.
 
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And the guy’s retired now too. Jeesh, what the hell is doing all day? LOL

I even gave him permission to start a thread on this if he felt it was warranted.

Still not convinced it's thread worthy, lol. An inch or two of rain with minimal other impacts isn't usually noteworthy, although there is still potential for 2-4" of rain, which would be noteworthy.
 
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Still not convinced it's thread worthy, lol. An inch or two of rain with minimal other impacts isn't usually noteworthy, although there is still potential for 2-4" of rain, which would be noteworthy.
I’m trying to be nice...

We would rather you start it than somebody else. :Wink:
 
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Is he not aware that cyclones don't form over the Atlantic? Isn't this common knowledge?
 
I recall Irene flooding a lot of parts of NJ. We were driving home from Hilton Head (with a stop at Gettysburg) and had trouble getting back to Bergen. The 287/80 intersection was a disaster (I think there was a bridge out on 287 in Boonton/Parsippany area). There were no issues when I got home but recall a storm a few days later that dropped another 5-6 inches. I got seepage in my basement from that storm since the water table was already high.
 
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