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OT: Official Separate Hurricane Jose Thread

RU4Real

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Jul 25, 2001
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Because @camdenlawprof asked for one. lol

Right now Jose is meandering about the Bermuda Triangle. I'd say that it's lost, except that we can see it. The storm is expected to perform what's called an "anticyclonic loop" over the next several days, heading back toward the U.S. coast (see official NHC graphic below). From that point, the models are suggesting a close pass off the middle Atlantic coast and then out to see. The GFS is slightly bullish on a U.S. landfall around the Delmarva, but there isn't a great deal of ensemble support for that, at this time. The solutioning is difficult because the projected path in the short term is so chaotic and because Jose is undergoing a great deal of high-level wind shear at this time and that will have an effect on its future.

AL122017_5day_cone_no_line.png
 
this guy is still hanging around? I thought he left awhile ago.
 
"So you say there's a chance"

That's if it survives. There's some speculation that the current, unfavorable environment may shred the storm before it gets much further along. The only thing it has going for it is that the SSTs are just ridiculously warm.
 
The 18z GFS has a similar offshore track to the 12z Euro, the main difference being that it's a lot slower. The GFS keeps Jose as a low-end Cat 2 (intensity estimates on global models aren't to be taken seriously, especially 8 days out), spinning off the coast on a very slow, two day ride from adjacent the Delmarva to off of Cape Cod. So, basically, no change.

As several posters on American Wx have noted, it's not really worth getting interested in what Jose is going to do until it's come out of its anticyclonic loop.
 
Of the major global models, none of the GFS, CMC, or Euro shows Jose coming within 300 miles of the US east coast, while the UK shows landfall on Florida; none of the other models shows a US landfall either. Still a long ways out, but not looking like much of a threat, although we're far enough out that Jose still needs to be watched.
 
Of the major global models, none of the GFS, CMC, or Euro shows Jose coming within 300 miles of the US east coast, while the UK shows landfall on Florida; none of the other models shows a US landfall either. Still a long ways out, but not looking like much of a threat, although we're far enough out that Jose still needs to be watched.

I'm just not feelin' this one like I was with Irma. I could be totally wrong, but the setup isn't resonating with me at all. I think the models are, at the very least, barking up the right tree with this one. For now.
 
Can you model people tell me why this loop-thing wasn't prophesied earlier?

Just a day or two before we saw a chart with the loop included we saw charts with no loop... what happened?
 
Can you model people tell me why this loop-thing wasn't prophesied earlier?

Just a day or two before we saw a chart with the loop included we saw charts with no loop... what happened?

We see loops and weird tracks when the upper/mid level "steering currents" are ill-defined, such that the models, which have different numerical algorithms, differing physics and thermodynamics (not wildly different, but not identical), and different incorporation and parameterization of initial conditions, then can have significantly different outputs.

As opposed to most of Irma's track, at least from the Cape Verde Islands to near Cuba, where almost all of the models were generally in pretty good agreement on the track, since the steering of Irma to the west around the huge Westeran Atlantic Ridge was pretty obvious.

That's why we should expect to see continued wide spread in model outputs over the next few days.
 
Of the major global models, none of the GFS, CMC, or Euro shows Jose coming within 300 miles of the US east coast, while the UK shows landfall on Florida; none of the other models shows a US landfall either. Still a long ways out, but not looking like much of a threat, although we're far enough out that Jose still needs to be watched.

Model mayhem continues, with most models out to sea and a few making hits (the UK still hits Florida and the CMC slowly backs a pretty weak low into NJ in 10+ days), but based on climatology (via Don S from American), only 16% of hurricanes within 100 miles of Jose's current position made a US landfall.

In addition, based on the models, the odds on a US landfall, IMO, are significantly lower, because the best model, the Euro, doesn't have Jose within 500 miles of the US east coast (neither does the GFS, although it just clips the SE tip of Newfoundland; the Euro misses Canada completely).

This is completely different from Irma, where every model at 5-7 days out had her heading through the northern Caribbean and threatening the Greater Antilles, Florida and the rest of the US east coast. But we'll watch anyway...
 
According to TWC this time next week the GFS has it OTS while the Euro has it close to the NE coast.

The models are unhinged on this one. The smart money is betting on the climatology, as described by @RU848789 in a previous post - in essence, betting that this one isn't going to landfall in the U.S. because storms in Jose's current location tend not to, overwhelmingly.
 
The models are unhinged on this one. The smart money is betting on the climatology, as described by @RU848789 in a previous post - in essence, betting that this one isn't going to landfall in the U.S. because storms in Jose's current location tend not to, overwhelmingly.

I get it 4Real. TWC said a small chance of coming close to the coast and a very slight possibility it comes straight in. They're saying it depends on a trough that will come from Canada. GFS has it pulling Jose out, Euro has it pushing it back.

Believe me I'm rooting for you sir.
 
According to TWC this time next week the GFS has it OTS while the Euro has it close to the NE coast.

True, but the Euro has it as a weak tropical/extratropical storm retrograding into Cape May 10 days from now. Anyone who believes a 10-day forecast for a storm with currently very weak steering currents is nuts - as I said in the post above, when steering currents are weak, the spread in model outcomes gets very large and right now the spread is huge. Could Jose hit the EC as a TS/weak hurricane? Yeah, theoretically possible, but very unlikely. Far more likely to stay out to sea.
 
Jose update: still no reason for significant concern, but also still needs to be watched to make sure he stays far enough off the east coast the next 5-7 days. The NHC forecast has Jose as a minimal hurricane (~75 mph winds) about 300 miles off the Outer Banks by about next Tuesday morning (120 hours).

The longer range models, including all of the Euro (the best model), the GFS, and the CMC, have Jose then coming about 200-300 miles off the Jersey Shore and maybe 100-150 miles off of eastern LI and Cape Cod before heading out to sea (perhaps clipping the Canadian Maritimes), finally (the UK has Jose within 50-75 miles of the NJ coast, but looks to be an outlier). At that point, the storm may just be a strong tropical storm or maybe a minimal hurricane and will likely be transitioning to an extra-tropical (cold-core/baroclinic) storm.

Also, even if Jose took a major jump towards us, there's no indication it would pack the power of a Sandy or even an Irene. Having said that, expect some moderate beach erosion and riptides for the next week or so, as well as heavy seas, even if it stays 200+ miles offshore. Great surfing weather with those swells, though.

21728485_10212150614714637_1142902556797036373_n.jpg


21752416_10212150627594959_145368829300284728_n.jpg
 
Hopefully the models other than UK hold up but even if they do I'd expect at least some coastal flooding as we'll be going through a high tide cycle next week just as we did with Sandy and I believe, Irene.

As is my luck, my house is being sided right now. That black cloud just won't go away lol.
 
And don't forget Invest 96L and Invest 97L. 96L is about 800 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands and is estimated to have an 80% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days, while 97L is about 300 miles SSW of the Cape Verde islands and is estimated to have an 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days (and probably in the next day or so).

Both are around 10 degrees north latitude, in favorable positions to move WNW across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. Way too early to make predictions on where these end up or how strong they might become, but it is the peak of the hurricane season, so watchful waiting is appropriate.

21730825_10212152117112196_5978236594201495997_n.jpg
 
And don't forget Invest 96L and Invest 97L. 96L is about 800 miles WSW of the Cape Verde Islands and is estimated to have an 80% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days, while 97L is about 300 miles SSW of the Cape Verde islands and is estimated to have an 90% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days (and probably in the next day or so).

Both are around 10 degrees north latitude, in favorable positions to move WNW across the Atlantic towards the Caribbean. Way too early to make predictions on where these end up or how strong they might become, but it is the peak of the hurricane season, so watchful waiting is appropriate.

21730825_10212152117112196_5978236594201495997_n.jpg

Yep.

And Jose could still be spinning around in the Western Atlantic by the time they get there.

Trivia Question: Has there ever been an incidence of 3 hurricanes, simultaneously, in the Western Atlantic?
 
Yep.

And Jose could still be spinning around in the Western Atlantic by the time they get there.

Trivia Question: Has there ever been an incidence of 3 hurricanes, simultaneously, in the Western Atlantic?

Jose could become Planet Earth's version of Jupiter's Great Red Spot, lol.

Do you want me to spoil the fun and answer the question or let others take a shot at it?
 
Jose could become Planet Earth's version of Jupiter's Great Red Spot, lol.

Do you want me to spoil the fun and answer the question or let others take a shot at it?

Nah, go ahead. I think we've probably lost the room, at this point.
 
Nah, go ahead. I think we've probably lost the room, at this point.

I'll admit, I thought it would've been the record-shattering year (28 named storms/15 hurricanes) of 2005, but when I looked at that year, it wasn't it. So I took 10 seconds and Googled it and got the answer (I have a serious love-hate relationship with Google - love being able to get answers so easily, but hate that everyone else can, too - I used to hold a lot more useless trivia in my head than the average person and now that's ruined, lol...have a similar issue with calculators).

In 1998 there were actually 4 hurricanes simultaneously in the Atlantic Basin, including 3 in the Atlantic Ocean, proper, which I think is what you were looking for. And we did just have 3 simultaneous hurricane in the Atlantic Basin last week, with Irma, Jose, and Katia, which is pretty unusual.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/four-hurricanes-once-atlantic-basin-20130925

30573469-c88b-402a-bc96-0216bcfecdab.jpg
 
I'll admit, I thought it would've been the record-shattering year (28 named storms/15 hurricanes) of 2005, but when I looked at that year, it wasn't it. So I took 10 seconds and Googled it and got the answer (I have a serious love-hate relationship with Google - love being able to get answers so easily, but hate that everyone else can, too - I used to hold a lot more useless trivia in my head than the average person and now that's ruined, lol...have a similar issue with calculators).

In 1998 there were actually 4 hurricanes simultaneously in the Atlantic Basin, including 3 in the Atlantic Ocean, proper, which I think is what you were looking for. And we did just have 3 simultaneous hurricane in the Atlantic Basin last week, with Irma, Jose, and Katia, which is pretty unusual.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/four-hurricanes-once-atlantic-basin-20130925

30573469-c88b-402a-bc96-0216bcfecdab.jpg
Does that active year and this year have anything to do with el nina, nino or any other "el" or "nin~"?
 
Does that active year and this year have anything to do with el nina, nino or any other "el" or "nin~"?
Yes, the state of El Nino/La Nino (ocean temps) and the accompanying Southern Oscillation (air temps) are key predictors. Typically, El Nino years have below normal tropical activity in the Atlantic, while neutral or La Nina years have normal to above normal activity - there are several other factors that go into the seasonal predictions, so it's not a simple relationship.

http://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/08/2017-08.pdf
 
Jose update: still no reason for significant concern, but also still needs to be watched to make sure he stays far enough off the east coast the next 5-7 days. The NHC forecast has Jose as a minimal hurricane (~75 mph winds) about 300 miles off the Outer Banks by about next Tuesday morning (120 hours).

The longer range models, including all of the Euro (the best model), the GFS, and the CMC, have Jose then coming about 200-300 miles off the Jersey Shore and maybe 100-150 miles off of eastern LI and Cape Cod before heading out to sea (perhaps clipping the Canadian Maritimes), finally (the UK has Jose within 50-75 miles of the NJ coast, but looks to be an outlier). At that point, the storm may just be a strong tropical storm or maybe a minimal hurricane and will likely be transitioning to an extra-tropical (cold-core/baroclinic) storm.

Also, even if Jose took a major jump towards us, there's no indication it would pack the power of a Sandy or even an Irene. Having said that, expect some moderate beach erosion and riptides for the next week or so, as well as heavy seas, even if it stays 200+ miles offshore. Great surfing weather with those swells, though.

21728485_10212150614714637_1142902556797036373_n.jpg


21752416_10212150627594959_145368829300284728_n.jpg

Yep.

And Jose could still be spinning around in the Western Atlantic by the time they get there.
What kind of waves might we get from Jose on the Jersey Shore?

Water is still warm.
 
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What kind of waves might we get from Jose on the Jersey Shore?

Water is still warm.
Big ones...

At this point, indirect impacts, such as elevated seas and the
increased risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents are
likely to continue. For maritime interests, the current track
increases the potential for direct impacts, such as increased
winds (see the marine/rip currents section below). However, it
remains too early to speculate on any direct impacts to land,
such as wind, rain, and coastal flooding.

That said, with the moon at syzygy on the 20th, astronomical
tides will become increasingly elevated (AOA 5.0 ft at the
Atlantic City NOS) late this weekend into the middle of next
week. The synoptic flow will be onshore Sunday through at least
Tuesday, along with larger long period swells in association
with Jose making their way to the coast. Therefore, we will be
watching for the potential of coastal flooding, especially
Monday into Tuesday.

Outlook...
The marine forecast in the Monday through Wednesday time frame
is highly dependent on the outcome of Tropical System Jose. In
addition to elevated seas due to Jose`s swells reaching the
coastal waters, the gradient due high pressure to the north will
lead to increased winds.

Seas may begin to flirt with 5 ft Saturday into Saturday night,
increasing to around 9 feet late Monday into Tuesday. An
easterly flow will develop on Saturday, becoming northeast
Sunday into Monday, and perhaps north on Tuesday. Wind gusts up
to around 25 knots are possible Monday into Tuesday. Therefore,
at least SCA- level conditions are possible Saturday through
Tuesday. There is also a low potential of gale force wind gusts
on Tuesday, as Tropical System Jose makes its closest approach,
and the wind field expands. The sea-state/gale potential has
been mentioned in the HWO.

Rip Currents...
There is a marginal moderate risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents on Friday. Long period (10 second)
southeasterly swells from tropical cyclone Jose continue.

Looking ahead...slowly building swells from Jose arrive this
weekend, reaching their highest values around next Tuesday
before subsiding. It Looks like a moderate risk for Saturday and
moderate or high risk Sunday, with HIGH risk Monday and
Tuesday.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
 
So Jose should still remain well off the NJ coast, but does need to be watched given typical 5-6 day track errors. NHC updated their forecast track at 5 am (see comment below) and Jose is still supposed to stay 100-200 miles off the mid-Atlantic coast, from NC through NJ from Days 3-5, but could come quite close to eastern LI and especially Cape Cod (and especially Nantucket) on Day 5-6.

However, since 5 day forecast errors are +/-200 miles or so, the "cone of uncertainty" does, just barely, include the mid-Atlantic coast, although a direct hit from Jose, which will likely be a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at that point (75-80 mph winds) is very unlikely. None of the models shows an Irene or Sandy scenario with a direct hit in NC/VA/DE/NJ.

Having said all that, even if Jose stays well of the NJ coast as forecast, there will be significant riptides, beach erosion, heavy seas and the potential for minor coastal flooding, especially at high tides in the Day 4-7 timeframe (and especially with the new moon on the 20th). There could also be some moderate rainfall and close to tropical storm force winds along the coast and possibly further inland if Jose's track moves further west.

The key variables in the track are the strength of the Western Atlantic Ridge (high pressure system to the NE of Jose with clockwise flow), which Jose is tracking around in a clockwise fashion, and the trough/front that will be approaching the US east coast this weekend, which should help to keep Jose offshore.

21740359_10212154566453428_5474410746519659285_n.jpg


21728159_10212154569013492_3920075403231057347_n.jpg
 
So Jose should still remain well off the NJ coast, but does need to be watched given typical 5-6 day track errors. NHC updated their forecast track at 5 am (see comment below) and Jose is still supposed to stay 100-200 miles off the mid-Atlantic coast, from NC through NJ from Days 3-5, but could come quite close to eastern LI and especially Cape Cod (and especially Nantucket) on Day 5-6.

However, since 5 day forecast errors are +/-200 miles or so, the "cone of uncertainty" does, just barely, include the mid-Atlantic coast, although a direct hit from Jose, which will likely be a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at that point (75-80 mph winds) is very unlikely. None of the models shows an Irene or Sandy scenario with a direct hit in NC/VA/DE/NJ.

Having said all that, even if Jose stays well of the NJ coast as forecast, there will be significant riptides, beach erosion, heavy seas and the potential for minor coastal flooding, especially at high tides in the Day 4-7 timeframe (and especially with the new moon on the 20th). There could also be some moderate rainfall and close to tropical storm force winds along the coast and possibly further inland if Jose's track moves further west.

The key variables in the track are the strength of the Western Atlantic Ridge (high pressure system to the NE of Jose with clockwise flow), which Jose is tracking around in a clockwise fashion, and the trough/front that will be approaching the US east coast this weekend, which should help to keep Jose offshore.

21740359_10212154566453428_5474410746519659285_n.jpg


21728159_10212154569013492_3920075403231057347_n.jpg
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thanks for your updates..... in your professional opinion, if the storm center tracks where the bulk of the tracks are, do you think the storm has enough wind or cause enough disturbance to flights out of Newark Wednesday morning?

just your best guess..... I don't vacation much, and as luck would have it, here comes Jose!
 
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thanks for your updates..... in your professional opinion, if the storm center tracks where the bulk of the tracks are, do you think the storm has enough wind or cause enough disturbance to flights out of Newark Wednesday morning?

just your best guess..... I don't vacation much, and as luck would have it, here comes Jose!
If Jose follows the center of the track envelope, it'll be just a bit breezy in Newark, so no impact would be likely.
 
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