OT: Official Separate Hurricane Jose Thread
- Thread starter RU4Real
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There's a record at stake (longest duration, named storm). I think it's something like 27 days.
My understanding is that it is at the edge of a high pressure system that is moving clockwise and is thus projected to take the storm out to sea, and that none of the models show it hitting the U.S or Canada.
Don't waste your time answering him. He doesn't believe you.
As a prof, I'm used to answering questions from people just trying to attract attention to themselves.
God, I used to hate those people. Having 2 lawyers in the family I can only imagine what an entire classroom of law students must be like.
Actually, law students are quite nice -- the fact that the classes are almost 50% women helps -- but every so often I run into a strange one.
Here's the 5 p.m. track; now southern New England is in the cone of uncertainty. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
So...
About that...
The models have been slowly but consistently shifting toward westward solutions and, perhaps more importantly, the number of ensemble members showing way out to sea solutions has moved steadily toward zero.
In terms of prognostication, I'll just quote a post from one of the smarter (and more level-headed) guys on AmericanWx.
About that...
The models have been slowly but consistently shifting toward westward solutions and, perhaps more importantly, the number of ensemble members showing way out to sea solutions has moved steadily toward zero.
In terms of prognostication, I'll just quote a post from one of the smarter (and more level-headed) guys on AmericanWx.
Consistent with the earlier satellite data, the hurricane reconnaissance plane found that Jose had regained hurricane strength. In addition, it continued to track northwestward and crossed 70°W longitude. As a consequence, probability of U.S. landfall based on historic climatology has increased. U.S. and Canadian landfall are now about equally likely.
- One third of hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position made U.S. landfall (1851-present)
- Half of those storms that made landfall came ashore anywhere from North Carolina to New England
- 72% of the storms that made landfall did so as Category 1 or 2 hurricanes
- The favored spot for landfall in Canada shifted from Newfoundland and Labrador to Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia landfall occurred more than twice as frequently as Newfoundland and Labrador landfall from the above sample of hurricanes.
Overall, the 12z ECMWF ensembles are closest to the picture painted by historic climatology. This gives me a measure of confidence in the overall probabilistic scenario shown on the EPS where most members keep Jose offshore. Some areas along the coastline from North Carolina to New England will likely experience tropical storm conditions.
- One third of hurricanes passing within 100 nautical miles of Jose's 5 pm position made U.S. landfall (1851-present)
- Half of those storms that made landfall came ashore anywhere from North Carolina to New England
- 72% of the storms that made landfall did so as Category 1 or 2 hurricanes
- The favored spot for landfall in Canada shifted from Newfoundland and Labrador to Nova Scotia. Nova Scotia landfall occurred more than twice as frequently as Newfoundland and Labrador landfall from the above sample of hurricanes.
Overall, the 12z ECMWF ensembles are closest to the picture painted by historic climatology. This gives me a measure of confidence in the overall probabilistic scenario shown on the EPS where most members keep Jose offshore. Some areas along the coastline from North Carolina to New England will likely experience tropical storm conditions.
I'm right there with you. Have a 12:30 pm flight to Vegas. Celebrating our 20th wedding anniversary and leaving the kids behind for more than a day for the first time in 16 years. As luck would have it...
So Jose should still remain well off the NJ coast, but does need to be watched given typical 5-6 day track errors. NHC updated their forecast track at 5 am (see comment below) and Jose is still supposed to stay 100-200 miles off the mid-Atlantic coast, from NC through NJ from Days 3-5, but could come quite close to eastern LI and especially Cape Cod (and especially Nantucket) on Day 5-6.
However, since 5 day forecast errors are +/-200 miles or so, the "cone of uncertainty" does, just barely, include the mid-Atlantic coast, although a direct hit from Jose, which will likely be a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at that point (75-80 mph winds) is very unlikely. None of the models shows an Irene or Sandy scenario with a direct hit in NC/VA/DE/NJ.
Having said all that, even if Jose stays well of the NJ coast as forecast, there will be significant riptides, beach erosion, heavy seas and the potential for minor coastal flooding, especially at high tides in the Day 4-7 timeframe (and especially with the new moon on the 20th). There could also be some moderate rainfall and close to tropical storm force winds along the coast and possibly further inland if Jose's track moves further west.
The key variables in the track are the strength of the Western Atlantic Ridge (high pressure system to the NE of Jose with clockwise flow), which Jose is tracking around in a clockwise fashion, and the trough/front that will be approaching the US east coast this weekend, which should help to keep Jose offshore.
Jose's 5 am NHC track, below, is a little bit further east and offshore, with the storm still forecast to remain well off the NJ coast, which is no longer within the "cone of uncertainty" (since we're now closer to the event and the error bars are smaller) but we will see riptides, heavy seas, beach erosion and possibly minor tidal flooding next Tuesday or so. The immediate NJ coast could see some tropical storm force gusts and eastern LI will likely see some tropical storm force gusts.
The storm to watch is 96L, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic which is likely to become a tropical storm (Maria) over the next few days, after tropical depression 14, SW of the Cape Verde Islands, becomes tropical storm Lee, shortly (and fizzles out in the central Atlantic).
96L could potentially take a similar path to Irma across the Atlantic and through/near the northern Leeward Islands and maybe the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba) and/or Bahamas, although it's not forecast to become a major hurricane (or not even a hurricane at all, yet) and it has the potential to impact the US east coast in about 9-10 days. Still way too far out to worry about, but worth watching. See Jeff Masters' blog in the link below.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-headed-towards-new-england-96l-concern-eastern-caribbean
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OMG you never stop, do you? It's not going to be more than a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane at our latitude and it's not going to hook left. There is no chance this becomes anything like Sandy. None. The worst threat from Jose is to the beaches. The wind/rain will be no worse than a run-of-the-mill nor'easter for the coast and will be fairly insignificant inland. If you want to get your panties in a bunch, start looking at the Day 9-10 forecasts for 96L - I'm sure you'll figure out a way to think it's going to hit NJ.
That's because you don't know what "in the cone" means.
I think that we've built enough credibility in managing these threads to be able to have you excluded from them, going forward.
Hi #'s. I just heard on the news that they're concerned about another possible storm (I'm sure that's 96 L that you're referring to as I just read the link above you posted) that may impact the East Coast in about 10 days. Interesting that the likelihood of 96L hitting the east coast may be due to Jose as well.
Here's the 6 a.m Saturday briefing from Philadelphia:
http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf
You obviously have not been following weather threads here!
Here's the 5 p.m. Saturday advisory. The Euro apparently shows that the storm may take a track to the west of what is currently predicted.
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through
Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to
973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an
outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed
SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity
is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite
of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the
wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.
The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the
mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing
through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or
360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during
the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial
position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It
should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie
west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility
that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the
official forecast.
Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the
shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight
strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30
kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The
hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72
hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves
eastward away from New England.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.
2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 28.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through
Jose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to
973 mb. A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an
outer band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed
SFMR wind was 65 kt. Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity
is held at 70 kt. The lack of significant intensification in spite
of the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the
wind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.
The aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the
mid-level center, has been reforming or meandering. Smoothing
through the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or
360/5 kt. This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during
the next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of
the subtropical ridge. The cyclone is then expected to turn
northeastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when
it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has
shifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial
position, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope. It
should be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie
west of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility
that Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the
official forecast.
Jose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the
shear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight
strengthening. However, the shear is expected to increase over 30
kt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken. The
hurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72
hours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken
to a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves
eastward away from New England.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North
Carolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are
currently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer
Banks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a
westward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm
conditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should
monitor the progress of Jose through Monday.
2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.
coast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone
could cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to
the left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast
from Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose
through the next several days.
3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the
northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.
east coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions for the next several days in these areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 28.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 29.6N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.9N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 32.3N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 33.8N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 37.1N 70.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 40.0N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
The NHC track shifted eastward substantially. The Euro tracked slightly eastward of where it was last night, although it is now on the western side of the center of the track. Jose's track did NOT shift westward in any way, shape or form. The threat from Jose is dead for the mid-Atlantic...unless you're counting on it doing a crazy loop-de-loop around Day 9-10 and backing towards the DelMarVa, as a weak remnant low pressure system, via some wonky Fujiwhara interaction with Maria.
Jose's 5 am NHC track, below, is a little bit further east and offshore, with the storm still forecast to remain well off the NJ coast, which is no longer within the "cone of uncertainty" (since we're now closer to the event and the error bars are smaller) but we will see riptides, heavy seas, beach erosion and possibly minor tidal flooding next Tuesday or so. The immediate NJ coast could see some tropical storm force gusts and eastern LI will likely see some tropical storm force gusts.
The storm to watch is 96L, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic which is likely to become a tropical storm (Maria) over the next few days, after tropical depression 14, SW of the Cape Verde Islands, becomes tropical storm Lee, shortly (and fizzles out in the central Atlantic).
96L could potentially take a similar path to Irma across the Atlantic and through/near the northern Leeward Islands and maybe the Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba) and/or Bahamas, although it's not forecast to become a major hurricane (or not even a hurricane at all, yet) and it has the potential to impact the US east coast in about 9-10 days. Still way too far out to worry about, but worth watching. See Jeff Masters' blog in the link below.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-headed-towards-new-england-96l-concern-eastern-caribbean
As I said this morning, when 96L wasn't even a named storm yet, 96L is definitely the storm to watch. Now Maria, this storm is blowing up quickly and is already a moderate tropical storm with 50 mph winds and should be a hurricane in a day or so.
Unfortunately, Maria is likely to go over the same area of the NE Caribbean that Irma did, although perhaps a bit south of Irma's track, as the center of the track (see the commment below) has Maria hitting Puerto Rico in 4 days as a major Cat 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds and then hitting northern Hispaniola a day later. That would not be good.
At least the long range forecasts have Maria curving to the N, then NE after that, meaning it would not be a thread to the east coast, but that's after day 5, when the models are less accurate.
Here is the 5 p.m. Sunday forecast from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Jose There appears to be a chance of mild or moderate flooding along the Jersey shore, and some possibility of 1-3 inches of rain. IMHO, people with interests on the Jersey shore should continue to pay attention to this storm.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/172039.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/172039.shtml
I think it's likely the shore will see some flooding. The NHC forecast is for Jose to pass between 200 and 250 miles offshore, which is pretty far given that we'll be on the west side of the storm. I don't think winds will be much of a big deal except, perhaps, right along the coast where a stray 30+ mph gust is possible. But there's a lot of fetch across a couple hundred miles of open ocean and the swells can build quickly.
Not 100% sure what fetch means but as I said in one of these threads it's a monthly hide tide cycle the next 4-5 days. There'd be scattered tidal flooding without the storm.
Fetch is the distance that wind blows across open water prior to an observation point. It has a significant impact on wave height.
Consider that a storm 30 miles off the coast with onshore winds will produce smaller waves than that same storm 100 miles off the coast. There's more fetch, so the seas have more time to build in front of the winds.
RU4Real defined fetch in the Irma thread. Here's a link to wilkipedia. Fetch is the distance over which the wind blows. The longer the fetch, the greater the storm surge.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetch_(geography)
Thanks guys. You'd think someone who's lived 200-250 feet from the beach the past 23 years would know that[eyeroll].
I'm glad I'm currently 3 miles inland. Don't have to worry about moving the car back and forth.
Is Jose gonna do another loop?
There's a fair amount of GFS support for Jose looping back toward the southwest at the beginning of next week. If it does so, it will likely be as a remnant low, as the storm's slow movement through the colder North Atlantic waters will serve to weaken it beyond the current forecast period.
In the near term, note that the forecast cone has been moved further to the east and Jose is now expected to remain well offshore through the period. Tropical Storm watches remain in effect, for now, along the coast from Delaware to Cape Cod, primarily as a caution against minor flooding during high tide. Along the New Jersey shore, tidal departures are expected to run one to two feet above normal. Rain remains in the forecast for the next few days but it should be sporadic and amounts should be fairly light.
Would like for Jose to spin around Maria to pull Maria out to sea. Is this a possibility over the next 4 days?
Yep, as we've been saying, Jose is not a big threat to NJ - nothing more than the effects from a typical nor'easter, at the coast - with the only likely significant effect being minor to moderate coastal flooding Tuesday/Tuesday night with '"surge" being 1-2 feet above normal high tide levels. I'm also skeptical of tropical storm force winds verifying at the coast, with Jose being so far offshore (TS winds are much more likely for eastern LI and Cape Cod). There will likely be minimal effects from about I-95 and NW of there - maybe a bit breezy and a bit of rain.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsig...dvisory&lat=40.2935&lon=-73.9965#.Wb_J67J96t8
