OT: OFFICIAL Weather Thread for MSU @ RU - looks mild and dry

[RU848789]

After a mostly dry week, we're going to see a low pressure system heading well to our north, dragging a cold front through our area sometime on Saturday. Looking like seasonable temps with highs in the low 50s (normal high/low for 11/25 is 52/33F) and partly cloudy skies, but the front could trigger a few instability-driven showers during the day. Very hard to pinpoint the timing and duration of the showers, but right now, it's not looking like much rain is likely, i.e., perhaps a couple of brief, light, passing showers (not looking anything like yesterday's front) - and no rain at all is very possible.

Will take at least a few more days to iron out the details for Saturday's forecast. Let's hope any rain holds off, as it would be nice to have one more really nice day for tailgating and football - low 50s and partly cloudy and dry would be great. And who knows, maybe we'll be so fired up from our putrid performance yesterday that we give the Spartans a good game.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[RU4Real]

Wind is worse. Hopefully no wind.

 

[RU848789]

Wind is worse. Hopefully no wind.

Yep. I'm sure you know this, but unfortunately, wind forecasts are difficult 24-48 hours out, let alone 6 days out, but, I'm always nervous about winds with cold fronts sweeping through, as they're often accompanied by significant winds, but they rarely forecast breezy/windy conditions this far out. Have to wait a few days to see how energetic this front will be...

 

[RU4Real]

Yep. I'm sure you know this, but unfortunately, wind forecasts are difficult 24-48 hours out, let alone 6 days out, but, I'm always nervous about winds with cold fronts sweeping through, as they're often accompanied by significant winds, but they rarely forecast breezy/windy conditions this far out. Have to wait a few days to see how energetic this front will be...

Exactly what I was thinking. But the keyboard was kinda far away, and I typed that post with one finger and... well, I wanted to keep it short.

A surface prog showing tight isobars will have me thinking about staying home.

 

[RU848789]

Exactly what I was thinking. But the keyboard was kinda far away, and I typed that post with one finger and... well, I wanted to keep it short.

A surface prog showing tight isobars will have me thinking about staying home.

I'll be there, but I know how you feel. Best thing I did yesterday was agree to go into NYC with my wife at halftime of that horrible game, to meet friends from back in our undergrad days, who were in town from Seattle. Completely forgot about the game.

Had a far better time going to the Nicklen Gallery in SoHo (amazing wildlife photographer from NatGeo), then hitting the Cupping Room Cafe for happy hour, then having an awesome dinner at the Antique Garage, a wonderful Mediterranean restaurant in a very eclectic space - the kind of place you just don't see in the suburbs. And we capped the night off at Jimmy's rootop bar (place was a little frou frou for us, but the views were superb.

http://www.paulnicklengallery.com/Artist.asp?ArtistID=45984&Akey=7FHPS2FP&ajx=1#!pf169905

http://www.antiquegaragesoho.com/gallery/1wrgcu9wln7phn5chmx9qqk0yxopbs

 

[WhiteBus]

I'll be there, but I know how you feel. Best thing I did yesterday was agree to go into NYC with my wife at halftime of that horrible game, to meet friends from back in our undergrad days, who were in town from Seattle. Completely forgot about the game.

Had a far better time going to the Nicklen Gallery in SoHo (amazing wildlife photographer from NatGeo), then hitting the Cupping Room Cafe for happy hour, then having an awesome dinner at the Antique Garage, a wonderful Mediterranean restaurant in a very eclectic space - the kind of place you just don't see in the suburbs. And we capped the night off at Jimmy's rootop bar (place was a little frou frou for us, but the views were superb.

http://www.paulnicklengallery.com/Artist.asp?ArtistID=45984&Akey=7FHPS2FP&ajx=1#!pf169905

http://www.antiquegaragesoho.com/gallery/1wrgcu9wln7phn5chmx9qqk0yxopbs

Great story. [eyeroll] I thought this was a weather thread??

 

[RU848789]

Great story. [eyeroll] I thought this was a weather thread??

Not sure most people care that much about the weather after last week's implosion, unfortunately...

 

[RU848789]

After a mostly dry week, we're going to see a low pressure system heading well to our north, dragging a cold front through our area sometime on Saturday. Looking like seasonable temps with highs in the low 50s (normal high/low for 11/25 is 52/33F) and partly cloudy skies, but the front could trigger a few instability-driven showers during the day. Very hard to pinpoint the timing and duration of the showers, but right now, it's not looking like much rain is likely, i.e., perhaps a couple of brief, light, passing showers (not looking anything like yesterday's front) - and no rain at all is very possible.

Will take at least a few more days to iron out the details for Saturday's forecast. Let's hope any rain holds off, as it would be nice to have one more really nice day for tailgating and football - low 50s and partly cloudy and dry would be great. And who knows, maybe we'll be so fired up from our putrid performance yesterday that we give the Spartans a good game.

http://www.weather.gov/phi/

No significant change in the forecast. Still looking at a cold front coming through sometime during the day on Saturday and possibly kicking off a light, brief shower or two anytime between mid-morning and early evening. It'll be seasonable with high temps in the low/mid-50s and will be partly cloudy most of the time. Still not looking breezy/windy, but need to wait another day or two to say that with some confidence.

However, there's not a lot of moisture for this front to work with, so we're only talking about 20-30% chance of showers and it's very likely that most of the day will be dry (and quite possible it's all dry), plus even if a few showers hit, it should likely be "nuisance rain," i..e, <0.1" total. Still a ways to go...

 

[WhiteBus]

Not sure most people care that much about the weather after last week's implosion, unfortunately...

In general yes. But I think a high % of this board that normally go will be thrilled to cheer the seniors and enjoy the last tailgate of 2017.

 

[G- RUnit]

Last time board members called rain “nuisance rain” I was soaked to the gills.

Depends on what the definition of “is” is?

 

[RU848789]

Last time board members called rain “nuisance rain” I was soaked to the gills.

Depends on what the definition of “is” is?

You need to be more specific. Whenever i say nuisance, I usually define how much that is, so people can make their own judgments, and note that my definition is likely not the same as everyone else's. Also, calling last week's forecast a bust, because it didn't rain exactly when you thought it should is a bit over the top. To expect a forecast to be correct for every hour of the day is completely unrealistic.

 

[Knight Shift]

You need to be more specific. Whenever i say nuisance, I usually define how much that is, so people can make their own judgments, and note that my definition is likely not the same as everyone else's. Also, calling last week's forecast a bust, because it didn't rain exactly when you thought it should is a bit over the top. To expect a forecast to be correct for every hour of the day is completely unrealistic.

Hourly forecasts 24 hours out were 2-3 hrs (or more) off for Indiana game. That rain should have started 2-3 hours earlier.

 

[BHSPCRU]

The good news is that this morning the forecast has gotten better for the game. I will take 52 degrees and partly cloudy and 10 per cent chance of rain at kickoff anytime. Will be in the low 40s by end of game but not horrible.

 

[bac2therac]

Last time board members called rain “nuisance rain” I was soaked to the gills.

Depends on what the definition of “is” is?

nuisance rain to him is basically annoying and problematic rain to 95% of the people in the stands

 

[DJ Spanky]

In general yes. But I think a high % of this board that normally go will be thrilled to cheer the seniors and enjoy the last tailgate of 2017.

Yep, unless the weather is really crappy we'll be out there. Now don't get uppity or I'll ban RU#'s from this thread.

 

[RU848789]

Hourly forecasts 24 hours out were 2-3 hrs (or more) off for Indiana game. That rain should have started 2-3 hours earlier.

Yes and no, as it's far more complex than that. It was expected that the warm front out ahead of the approaching surface low would lead to rain in the region before the cold front came through behind it. It did, as there was rain both north and south of Bloomington in the late morning and early afternoon - but for some reason we'll never know, the showers didn't hit a swath of central Indiana.

The front was extremely well modeled and came through just about when forecast to 24 hours earlier (around 2 pm), accompanied by strong storms and rain and gusty winds and some lightning. If the showers had hit before the front, as expected, it would've been a perfect forecast, but since the showers didn't hit, I'd say it was a good, but not great forecast.

 

[RU848789]

nuisance rain to him is basically annoying and problematic rain to 95% of the people in the stands

That's probaby true, which is why I always post the forecast amount, so people can make their own judgments. Rain simply doesn't bother me, but I know it bothers others.

 

[RU848789]

The good news is that this morning the forecast has gotten better for the game. I will take 52 degrees and partly cloudy and 10 per cent chance of rain at kickoff anytime. Will be in the low 40s by end of game but not horrible.

The interesting thing is that the NWS in Philly is still calling for a 30-40% chance of some light showers for Middlesex County, while the NWS in NYC has only a 10-15% chance of showers for neighboring Union County and Staten Island. Between that and the models not showing much rain tells me that the rain forecast is highly uncertain and we need some more time to see where we'll end up. However, the good news is that the worst case still seems to be a few light showers of maybe 0.05-0.10" of rain, which is certainly nuisance to me. And the chances of a dry day are pretty high.

 

[WhiteBus]

The interesting thing is that the NWS in Philly is still calling for a 30-40% chance of some light showers for Middlesex County, while the NWS in NYC has only a 10-15% chance of showers for neighboring Union County and Staten Island. Between that and the models not showing much rain tells me that the rain forecast is highly uncertain and we need some more time to see where we'll end up. However, the good news is that the worst case still seems to be a few light showers of maybe 0.05-0.10" of rain, which is certainly nuisance to me. And the chances of a dry day are pretty high.

And Philly stations have no rain.

 

[mildone]

That's probaby true, which is why I always post the forecast amount, so people can make their own judgments. Rain simply doesn't bother me, but I know it bothers others.

Yeah, like the entire rest of our tailgate crew. So bring your canopy. Please.

 

[Knight Shift]

Yes and no, as it's far more complex than that. It was expected that the warm front out ahead of the approaching surface low would lead to rain in the region before the cold front came through behind it. It did, as there was rain both north and south of Bloomington in the late morning and early afternoon - but for some reason we'll never know, the showers didn't hit a swath of central Indiana.

The front was extremely well modeled and came through just about when forecast to 24 hours earlier (around 2 pm), accompanied by strong storms and rain and gusty winds and some lightning. If the showers had hit before the front, as expected, it would've been a perfect forecast, but since the showers didn't hit, I'd say it was a good, but not great forecast.

I wasn't going WhiteBus on you and criticizing the forecast--I was (I think) trying to support your statement that trying to pinpoint stormy weather is (and will likely always will be) and inexact science.

That said, Ray Lucas lamented that the rain needed to start 2 hour earlier in Bloomington--made me think of this:

 

[RU848789]

Yeah, like the entire rest of our tailgate crew. So bring your canopy. Please.

For you? No. For Abigail? Maybe. Better teach that little cherub to talk, lol.

 

[T2Kplus10]

Not sure most people care that much about my weather threads, unfortunately...

Fixed it for you!

 

[RU848789]

The interesting thing is that the NWS in Philly is still calling for a 30-40% chance of some light showers for Middlesex County, while the NWS in NYC has only a 10-15% chance of showers for neighboring Union County and Staten Island. Between that and the models not showing much rain tells me that the rain forecast is highly uncertain and we need some more time to see where we'll end up. However, the good news is that the worst case still seems to be a few light showers of maybe 0.05-0.10" of rain, which is certainly nuisance to me. And the chances of a dry day are pretty high.

The disparity has disappeared and both offices now have pretty low chances of showers for Saturday afternoon and early evening (15-25%). I wouldn't say we're out of the woods, yet, 4 days out, but it's starting to look decent with respect to rainfall.

Worst case is now looking more like <0.05" of rain, which I know most people wouldn't have much problem with - and only the GFS shows this much - the CMC and Euro show no measureable rain from Sat morning through the game. But I have to say that that still has time to change, so it being dry is not quite yet a lock to me.

Not only that, but the latest model runs show the front likely coming through Saturday evening, rather than Saturday afternoon, which would make a modest difference in temps during the day - there are indications we could make a run at 60F Saturday afternoon, if we can get some sunshine, which is quite possible. And still looking like winds will be light.

 

[RU4Real]

Mt. Holly has pulled all rain out of the forecast. Saturday now forecast to be mostly sunny, high of 56.

We'll be settled into the Yellow lot by 1030.

 

[RU848789]

Mt. Holly has pulled all rain out of the forecast. Saturday now forecast to be mostly sunny, high of 56.

We'll be settled into the Yellow lot by 1030.

Not exactly. Rain is out of the "official" forecast, but they're still carrying a 15-20% chance of brief, light showers in the forecast grids - when it's below 20%, they no longer mention the chance in the official forecast, but the chance is still there. They also mention it in the discussion, below.

Having said all that, the forecast and the models are certainly headed in the right direction, but a completely dry day is not a lock yet, IMO. Mostly sunny, completely dry and near 60F for a high is certainly a good possibility, now, though, and would be a nice way to finish off the tailgating season...

However, as the front moves
through Saturday there is a chance of isolated/scattered showers
across the area.

 

[RU848789]

Not exactly. Rain is out of the "official" forecast, but they're still carrying a 15-20% chance of brief, light showers in the forecast grids - when it's below 20%, they no longer mention the chance in the official forecast, but the chance is still there. They also mention it in the discussion, below.

Having said all that, the forecast and the models are certainly headed in the right direction, but a completely dry day is not a lock yet, IMO. Mostly sunny, completely dry and near 60F for a high is certainly a good possibility, now, though, and would be a nice way to finish off the tailgating season...

However, as the front moves
through Saturday there is a chance of isolated/scattered showers
across the area.

The "slight" chance of a small amount (<0.05") of rain over the entire tailgate/game is back in the forecast (20-25% now). This is typical of the fluctuations in forecasts, due to model variability over time. In the big picture, the forecast has barely changed - the only people noticing the changes from 15 to 30 to 20% chance of a few light showers over the past couple of days are probably on this board, lol.

Most models are dry, but there is one (the NAM, which is definitely not the best) showing a bit more rain. Still need to wait another day or so for a more definitive forecast and it's possible we'll stil be carrying a slight chance of a light brief shower or two through gametime - in that case, keep in mind that we're not talking much rain at all and it'll be far more likely it stays dry the whole time.

With regard to temps, should be a nice mild day with highs in the mid-50s and possibly in the upper 50s; temps should only fall back into the upper 40s by the end of the game. Winds are looking light (5-10 mph), although it could get a little breezier (10-15 mph) at times. Should be a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.

Saturday and Saturday night:

A cold frontal boundary will move through the area on Saturday.
Overall, timing has sped up a few hours on average with the modeling
and ensembles. Enough lift and moisture should be present for a few
spotty rain showers, primarily in the afternoon hours. Precipitation looks very light, only a few hundredths and this forecast used a SREF/WPC blend. A few southerly wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are possible before the
frontal passage.

 

[mildone]

The "slight" chance of a small amount (<0.05") of rain over the entire tailgate/game is back in the forecast (20-25% now). This is typical of the fluctuations in forecasts, due to model variability over time. In the big picture, the forecast has barely changed - the only people noticing the changes from 15 to 30 to 20% chance of a few light showers over the past couple of days are probably on this board, lol.

Most models are dry, but there is one (the NAM, which is definitely not the best) showing a bit more rain. Still need to wait another day or so for a more definitive forecast and it's possible we'll stil be carrying a slight chance of a light brief shower or two through gametime - in that case, keep in mind that we're not talking much rain at all and it'll be far more likely it stays dry the whole time.

With regard to temps, should be a nice mild day with highs in the mid-50s and possibly in the upper 50s; temps should only fall back into the upper 40s by the end of the game. Winds are looking light (5-10 mph), although it could get a little breezier (10-15 mph) at times. Should be a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.

Saturday and Saturday night:

A cold frontal boundary will move through the area on Saturday.
Overall, timing has sped up a few hours on average with the modeling
and ensembles. Enough lift and moisture should be present for a few
spotty rain showers, primarily in the afternoon hours. Precipitation looks very light, only a few hundredths and this forecast used a SREF/WPC blend. A few southerly wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are possible before the
frontal passage.

Make up your mind, dammit.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Make up your mind, dammit.

I knew I should have taken WhiteBus's advice and banned him from this thread.

 

[RU848789]

The "slight" chance of a small amount (<0.05") of rain over the entire tailgate/game is back in the forecast (20-25% now). This is typical of the fluctuations in forecasts, due to model variability over time. In the big picture, the forecast has barely changed - the only people noticing the changes from 15 to 30 to 20% chance of a few light showers over the past couple of days are probably on this board, lol.

Most models are dry, but there is one (the NAM, which is definitely not the best) showing a bit more rain. Still need to wait another day or so for a more definitive forecast and it's possible we'll stil be carrying a slight chance of a light brief shower or two through gametime - in that case, keep in mind that we're not talking much rain at all and it'll be far more likely it stays dry the whole time.

With regard to temps, should be a nice mild day with highs in the mid-50s and possibly in the upper 50s; temps should only fall back into the upper 40s by the end of the game. Winds are looking light (5-10 mph), although it could get a little breezier (10-15 mph) at times. Should be a mix of sun and clouds throughout the day.

Saturday and Saturday night:

A cold frontal boundary will move through the area on Saturday.
Overall, timing has sped up a few hours on average with the modeling
and ensembles. Enough lift and moisture should be present for a few
spotty rain showers, primarily in the afternoon hours. Precipitation looks very light, only a few hundredths and this forecast used a SREF/WPC blend. A few southerly wind gusts in the afternoon around 15 mph are possible before the
frontal passage.

No significant change. NWS Philly lists a 30% chance of a light shower or two (<0.02" of rain for the entire period of 1-7 pm, which is clearly a nuisance amount), while the NWS in NYC has a 15% chance of a light shower with only 0.01" forecast for 1-7 pm. A few light rain showers are more likely after the game in the evening.

And there's essentially no major model (including the Euro) showing measurable rain, so I'm hopeful we'll have a dry day. Worst case, we're talking some sprinkles and maybe a brief light shower over the tailgates and game. Not worth worrying about IMO, unless we actually end up getting more than expected.

High temps still expected to be in the mid-50s (depends how much sunshine we get - partly cloudy is expected) and winds are still expected to be in the 5-10 mph range (could get a little breezy in the early afternoon).

 

[T2Kplus10]

No significant change.

This is as long as your posted needed to be. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[RU848789]

No significant change. NWS Philly lists a 30% chance of a light shower or two (<0.02" of rain for the entire period of 1-7 pm, which is clearly a nuisance amount), while the NWS in NYC has a 15% chance of a light shower with only 0.01" forecast for 1-7 pm. A few light rain showers are more likely after the game in the evening.

And there's essentially no major model (including the Euro) showing measurable rain, so I'm hopeful we'll have a dry day. Worst case, we're talking some sprinkles and maybe a brief light shower over the tailgates and game. Not worth worrying about IMO, unless we actually end up getting more than expected.

High temps still expected to be in the mid-50s (depends how much sunshine we get - partly cloudy is expected) and winds are still expected to be in the 5-10 mph range (could get a little breezy in the early afternoon).

Most models, including the Euro, show tomorrow to be dry through at least 9 pm, so I'm going with dry, with a worst case of a few sprinkles possible late in the afternoon. Only the GFS shows a small amount of measurable rain (0.02-0.03", which is nuisance level). NWS is still leaving a 15-20% chance of a few light showers in the forecast (<0.02" of rain), but I think that's overdone (and even they hint at that, as per the AFD below).

Should be mild with high temps in the upper 50s and we could see 60F, if we get some decent sunshine and temps will only drop into the upper 40s by 7 pm or so. Should be partly cloudy with clouds increasing late in the afternoon and winds should be light (5-10 mph). Great day for tailgating and football.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Enough lift and moisture should be present for mid and high level
clouds to move into the region late in the day. However, dry air is
present several thousand feet up on modeled soundings. As a result,
this forecast is rather skeptical for any scattered rain showers to
form in the afternoon with the GFS likely overdone on rainfall. Continued
with slight shower chances in the afternoon to account for this
possibility though. Temperatures will warm into the 50`s with areas
in eastern PA seeing clouds coming in sooner to keep temperatures
from warming much above 50. New Jersey and Delaware will have more
sunshine and a better opportunity to take advantage of mid-level
warmth to make a run at 60 for highs

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[RU848789]

Most models, including the Euro, show tomorrow to be dry through at least 9 pm, so I'm going with dry, with a worst case of a few sprinkles possible late in the afternoon. Only the GFS shows a small amount of measurable rain (0.02-0.03", which is nuisance level). NWS is still leaving a 15-20% chance of a few light showers in the forecast (<0.02" of rain), but I think that's overdone (and even they hint at that, as per the AFD below).

Should be mild with high temps in the upper 50s and we could see 60F, if we get some decent sunshine and temps will only drop into the upper 40s by 7 pm or so. Should be partly cloudy with clouds increasing late in the afternoon and winds should be light (5-10 mph). Great day for tailgating and football.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Enough lift and moisture should be present for mid and high level
clouds to move into the region late in the day. However, dry air is
present several thousand feet up on modeled soundings. As a result,
this forecast is rather skeptical for any scattered rain showers to
form in the afternoon with the GFS likely overdone on rainfall. Continued
with slight shower chances in the afternoon to account for this
possibility though. Temperatures will warm into the 50`s with areas
in eastern PA seeing clouds coming in sooner to keep temperatures
from warming much above 50. New Jersey and Delaware will have more
sunshine and a better opportunity to take advantage of mid-level
warmth to make a run at 60 for highs

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Now all of the models are dry through 7-8 pm and the NWS forecast (and other media too) is dry throughout the tailgates and game; maybe a 10% chance of a sprinkle late in the game. Should make a run at 60F for highs with partly cloudy skies through 4-5 pm, with clouds on the increase after that. Winds will be light and temps will only drop to about 50F by the end of the game. Enjoy.

 

[mildone]

Now all of the models are dry through 7-8 pm and the NWS forecast (and other media too) is dry throughout the tailgates and game; maybe a 10% chance of a sprinkle late in the game. Should make a run at 60F for highs with partly cloudy skies through 4-5 pm, with clouds on the increase after that. Winds will be light and temps will only drop to about 50F by the end of the game. Enjoy.

Good job.