Good news – the trend towards the front progressing further south continued in last night’s and today’s model runs, such that, now, no major global or mesoscale (regional/short-term) model is showing any appreciable (>0.1”) precip during the day on Saturday, through at least early Sunday morning. One model shows maybe 0.05” of rain for Metuchen in the evening and every other model shows it being completely dry. So, the actual forecast is for warm (high near 80F) and dry, with partly cloudy skies and comfortable humidity levels.
There is still expected to be some rain/showers south of a Philly to LBI line, but even that is looking light – need to go down to Baltimore to Cape May to get appreciable rain. And there’s always a chance of a brief stray light shower or two (<0.05” of rain, which is nuisance level) and a very small risk of a little thunder/lightning, but I see no reason to postpone the event based on the forecast.
And, fyi, the NWS will very likely be saying the same things at 4 pm, as they’re looking at the same models as I am. It’s not complicated when they all show a similar outcome – they earn their money when there is model mayhem. Below is the most recent hourly weather graphic from the NWS for Metuchen, which is from this morning – they’ll update it around 4 pm, but I expect it might show even less chance of rain tomorrow.
By the way, if you're not familiar with MetFest and are looking for something to do tomorrow, give it a whirl. It's an all day event with Main St. and New St. being closed off and artists setting up shop all over the place and a couple of stages of musicians/bands showing music much of the day (from noon to 10 pm). And the restaurants/bars will all be offering specials - there will even be outdoor areas cordoned off for people drinking next to Hailey's and Novita.
