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OT: Severe T-Storm Watch for Entire Area, 7/6/21

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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For whatever reason, people have seemed more interested in summertime t-storms this year, so figured I'd let everyone know that the NWS in Philly and NYC have issued severe t-storm watches for the entire region (DE, Eastern PA, NJ, NYC/LI/CT/SENY) for this afternoon and evening. There's certainly enough "fuel" in the atmosphere, with such a high heat content - let's see if we get the "spark" needed to set them off (instability).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
149 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect until 10 PM covering eastern
PA through NJ south into northern Delmarva. Storms are developing at
this time over north central PA into upstate NY and should increase
in coverage and intensity while moving E/SE reaching our eastern PA
zones by the 4-5 pm time frame. The environment is favorable
for severe storms with ML CAPEs of 2000-3000 J/KG and 0-3 km
shear of 20- 25 knots. Also, DCAPEs are over 1000 j/kg.

Storms are shown to move in a more linear fashion through the
forecast area and weakening after sunset. Another line may
develop near southeast Pennsylvania and central New Jersey near
the surface/thermal trough that will be in place, before the
showers and thunderstorms shift southeast. Best timing for
convection to roll through the area is during the afternoon and
evening. SPC has much of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
outlined in a slight risk for severe weather today, with a
marginal area for the remainder of our forecast area. Strong
winds, small hail, and moderate to heavy downpours will all be
possible.

Going into this evening, the storms should weaken and diminish in
coverage as they move south. With plenty of low level moisture in
the region and the flow remaining southwesterly, there will be the
potential for fog development overnight, especially in areas that
see decent amounts of rain. Overnight lows will remain warm and in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
 
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Would be somewhat shocked if this verifies. Usually these frontal passages favor SEPA and South Jersey/Coastal Central Jersey. Modeled Cape values seem to support this, point soundings in North Jersey are relatively stable given the environment.
 
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Darn, just ran the sprinkler for an hour last night and again this morning. I could have saved some water
 
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Radar really starting to light up in NE PA and SE NY and if that line holds together as it moves SE, mostly, CNJ/NNJ/NYC will be in line for some good storms in an hour or two...
 
Down the shore everything is all right. Sunny and nice in Wall.
Give it about 20 minutes...some hellacious lightning and high winds and heavy rain for the last 20 minutes here, although the worst is likely over but some showers still look to be on their way, but not severe ones.
 
Got a 5 minute sun shower around 5:30 in Hamilton and that was it. Getting darker now with grey skies but the radar seems to miss us.
 
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Roared thru Dunellen beginning about 6:40, still have thunder and lightning.
 
I am in the border of Hunterdon/Somerset counties and the storm was really nasty here for about 20 minutes; thankfully I was home and not driving in that.
 
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Give it about 20 minutes...some hellacious lightning and high winds and heavy rain for the last 20 minutes here, although the worst is likely over but some showers still look to be on their way, but not severe ones.
About 30 minutes behind, but getting hammered now.
 
Would be somewhat shocked if this verifies. Usually these frontal passages favor SEPA and South Jersey/Coastal Central Jersey. Modeled Cape values seem to support this, point soundings in North Jersey are relatively stable given the environment.
This is why I'm glad I didn't make a career out of meteorology.

Would have been better off sticking to sniffing glue.
 
That was a nasty storm that went through Princeton. My colleague sent a couple pics of his patio under a foot of water down in Tampa Bay. Good luck to those folks down there. Hopefully Elsa moves quickly through.
 
This cell moving through northern somerset country right now is packing a ton of CG lightning.
 
This is why I'm glad I didn't make a career out of meteorology.

Would have been better off sticking to sniffing glue.
You seem to know what you're talking about - did you take met classes or major in it? If so, as you would know, it's nearly impossible to get frontal/instability driven mesoscale events like this right more than a few hours in advance and even just a few hours in advance is really hard. That's why we see the same language on hot summer days so frequently, i.e., "A chance of showers and thunderstorms...chance of precipitation is X%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms." Vague enough to cover so many outcomes, because exact predictions are impossible in such situations.
 
Just drove home from Washington Crossing PA to Lambertville and that was horrifying. Not a lot of rain, but constant lightning and some pretty strong wind gusts. Some of the drive is on back country roads with a ton of dead ash trees and I was keeping a close eye on them.
 
For whatever reason, people have seemed more interested in summertime t-storms this year, so figured I'd let everyone know that the NWS in Philly and NYC have issued severe t-storm watches for the entire region (DE, Eastern PA, NJ, NYC/LI/CT/SENY) for this afternoon and evening. There's certainly enough "fuel" in the atmosphere, with such a high heat content - let's see if we get the "spark" needed to set them off (instability).

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
149 PM EDT Tue Jul 6 2021

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM Update: Severe Thunderstorm Watch now in effect until 10 PM covering eastern
PA through NJ south into northern Delmarva. Storms are developing at
this time over north central PA into upstate NY and should increase
in coverage and intensity while moving E/SE reaching our eastern PA
zones by the 4-5 pm time frame. The environment is favorable
for severe storms with ML CAPEs of 2000-3000 J/KG and 0-3 km
shear of 20- 25 knots. Also, DCAPEs are over 1000 j/kg.

Storms are shown to move in a more linear fashion through the
forecast area and weakening after sunset. Another line may
develop near southeast Pennsylvania and central New Jersey near
the surface/thermal trough that will be in place, before the
showers and thunderstorms shift southeast. Best timing for
convection to roll through the area is during the afternoon and
evening. SPC has much of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
outlined in a slight risk for severe weather today, with a
marginal area for the remainder of our forecast area. Strong
winds, small hail, and moderate to heavy downpours will all be
possible.

Going into this evening, the storms should weaken and diminish in
coverage as they move south. With plenty of low level moisture in
the region and the flow remaining southwesterly, there will be the
potential for fog development overnight, especially in areas that
see decent amounts of rain. Overnight lows will remain warm and in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Big whoop dee doo. It's the summer. We have T-storms.
 
The rain that missed us early in pway really pounded us in the last hour
 
Just drove through 2 gigantic flooded areas. Had no other way to get home. Hope my car is OK.

Best of Luck,
Groz
 
80K in NJ without power, as countless trees came down, taking down power lines. Fortunately, no injuries were reported. Could be some more storms tomorrow afternoon/evening, although likely not as widespread.
 
Lots of rain for many folks last night and at least some for almost everyone...

hEsteAH.jpg
 
 
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