OT: Significant Icing Risk for NW of 95/N of 78 Mon night/Tues, 2/16; (also info on minor event for 2/13-2/14 w/high uncertainty on freezing rain)

[RU848789]

Models are all over the place and we're only about 60 hours from the start of the storm (vs. today's 12Z models that initialized at 7 am EST), so I'm not going to go into great detail - this is just more of a heads-up note that something minor to moderate is coming.

Whatever we get from the coastal low likely to from off of NC and come up the coast is currently not forecast to be heavy (maybe 0.2-0.4" of liquid equivalent, perhaps - which is 2-4" of snow at 10:1 ratios), but the big problem is there's a very strong Canadian high pressure system forecast to be in our area by then with very cold surface temps, but the coastal could be driving enough warm air in at the mid-levels of the atmosphere to lead the snow at the start to quickly change to sleet or maybe freezing rain for many with maybe only far NWNJ/Poconos/Hudson Valley staying as mostly snow.

It's almost impossible to forecast sleet and freezing rain well 12-24 hours out, so it's impossible to forecast them this far out - again, this is more of a heads up. If freezing rain occurs, even a "minor" event becomes significant, as it only takes a glaze of ~0.1" of ice on everything to potentially wreak havoc, as we just saw with the 75+ car pile-up with 5 killed in TX today, from some freezing rain.

https://www.fox4news.com/video/899868

Also, as many may know, the system that is forecast to bring heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain to the Pac NW on Fri/Sat will be hitting the southern Plains (especially TX) on Sat/Sun with bitter cold temps for all of the Plains states (some all-time record lows might be set) and wintry precip possibly all the way to the Gulf Coast (and substantial snow/sleet/ice in parts of the south) - and this is the storm the could bring substantial impacts to this area by late Mon through Tuesday. That will likely require its own thread in a day or so.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2024-february-10-14-2021-days-of-wintry-waves/page/35/
https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

 

[BigLou]

Any hope for above freezing temps? Ignore, I saw you response on the other thread.

 

[RU848789]

Any hope for above freezing temps?

Just answered this question for you in the other thread - short answer is not for the next week for folks NW of 95, like you and only minor hope along/SE of 95 (maybe temps in the mid 30s). Cold/snowy pattern...

 

[RU848789]

Winter storm watches and advisories are already up for much of VA/WV, including DC (and Balt soon) for Saturday for up to an inch of snow, which is largely inconsequential, but mainly for up to 1/4" of ice accretion on all surfaces, as rain falls onto sub-32F surfaces and freezes on contact. The "rain" actually starts as snow 10K or more feet up, but there will be a warm layer around 3000-5000 feet up that melts the snowflakes and then there will be a below 32F layer near the surface - not deep/cold enough to freeze the water drops into sleet, but cold enough to freeze those drops on contact at the surface. That's what is possibly heading our way Saturday night/Sunday morning.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/

 

[DJ Spanky]

I understand there's a winter storm warning out west somewhere: we need a new thread for that!

 

[Degaz-RU]

Winter storm watches and advisories are already up for much of VA/WV, including DC (and Balt soon) for Saturday for up to an inch of snow, which is largely inconsequential, but mainly for up to 1/4" of ice accretion on all surfaces, as rain falls onto sub-32F surfaces and freezes on contact. The "rain" actually starts as snow 10K or more feet up, but there will be a warm layer around 3000-5000 feet up that melts the snowflakes and then there will be a below 32F layer near the surface - not deep/cold enough to freeze the water drops into sleet, but cold enough to freeze those drops on contact at the surface. That's what is possibly heading our way Saturday night/Sunday morning.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/

Ugh, nothing worse than freezing rain.

This winter is starting to feel like 1993-94 (on a smaller scale since we had 14 storms that year).

 

[DJ Spanky]

Dear God, the Weather Channel with their storm naming shtick! This was Stanley, the next one is Tabitha, then Uri.

Winter storm naming in the United States - Naming by The Weather Channel

 

[miket007]

Ugh, nothing worse than freezing rain.

This winter is starting to feel like 1993-94 (on a smaller scale since we had 14 storms that year).

WOW good call, early 1994 it seemed like every week we got hit with an ice storm. I was stationed at McGuire AFB

 

[RU848789]

Dear God, the Weather Channel with their storm naming shtick! This was Stanley, the next one is Tabitha, then Uri.

Winter storm naming in the United States - Naming by The Weather Channel

Nobody on the weather boards ever uses those stupid names. Nobody. And if they do, they get shunned, lol. Not only are they a lame PR attempt, but they simply don't work. There are 35+ named snowstorms every year, many of which are memorable for some people in the US, vs. 10-15 named tropical systems every year, of which maybe 2-3 are memborable in the US (outside of years like 2020). People are also used to recalling storms by the month and year. Say "Feb 1977," "Feb-1983," "Jan 1996," "Feb 2003" or "Jan-2016" to anyone who follows winter weather and that person knows that storm (in the NE US - same is true for different storms in the rest of the us).

 

[RUPete]

Nobody on the weather boards ever uses those stupid names. Nobody. And if they do, they get shunned, lol. Not only are they a lame PR attempt, but they simply don't work. There are 35+ named snowstorms every year, many of which are memorable for some people in the US, vs. 10-15 named tropical systems every year, of which maybe 2-3 are memborable in the US (outside of years like 2020). People are also used to recalling storms by the month and year. Say "Feb 1977," "Feb-1983," "Jan 1996," "Feb 2003" or "Jan-2016" to anyone who follows winter weather and that person knows that storm (in the NE US - same is true for different storms in the rest of the us).

But some of them get named for specific days when they hit like the Boxing Day Blizzard.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Nobody on the weather boards ever uses those stupid names. Nobody. And if they do, they get shunned, lol. Not only are they a lame PR attempt, but they simply don't work. There are 35+ named snowstorms every year, many of which are memorable for some people in the US, vs. 10-15 named tropical systems every year, of which maybe 2-3 are memborable in the US (outside of years like 2020). People are also used to recalling storms by the month and year. Say "Feb 1977," "Feb-1983," "Jan 1996," "Feb 2003" or "Jan-2016" to anyone who follows winter weather and that person knows that storm (in the NE US - same is true for different storms in the rest of the us).

Did you read what I linked? There's great stuff there about how the NWS specifically told others not to use the names when TWC tried to institute them.

 

[Tango Two]

Dear God, the Weather Channel with their storm naming shtick! This was Stanley, the next one is Tabitha, then Uri.

Winter storm naming in the United States - Naming by The Weather Channel

Entities from the United States government, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Weather Service (NWS), have stated that they would not be naming winter storms, and have asked others to refrain from doing so.

 

[RU848789]

But some of them get named for specific days when they hit like the Boxing Day Blizzard.

Yep and President's Day 1 and 2 usually called PD1 and PD2.

 

[RU848789]

Did you read what I linked? There's great stuff there about how the NWS specifically told others not to use the names when TWC tried to institute them.

Yep, I remember that response from the NWS and others when this all started...

 

[RU848789]

Models are all over the place and we're only about 60 hours from the start of the storm (vs. today's 12Z models that initialized at 7 am EST), so I'm not going to go into great detail - this is just more of a heads-up note that something minor to moderate is coming.

Whatever we get from the coastal low likely to from off of NC and come up the coast is currently not forecast to be heavy (maybe 0.2-0.4" of liquid equivalent, perhaps - which is 2-4" of snow at 10:1 ratios), but the big problem is there's a very strong Canadian high pressure system forecast to be in our area by then with very cold surface temps, but the coastal could be driving enough warm air in at the mid-levels of the atmosphere to lead the snow at the start to quickly change to sleet or maybe freezing rain for many with maybe only far NWNJ/Poconos/Hudson Valley staying as mostly snow.

It's almost impossible to forecast sleet and freezing rain well 12-24 hours out, so it's impossible to forecast them this far out - again, this is more of a heads up. If freezing rain occurs, even a "minor" event becomes significant, as it only takes a glaze of ~0.1" of ice on everything to potentially wreak havoc, as we just saw with the 75+ car pile-up with 5 killed in TX today, from some freezing rain.

https://www.fox4news.com/video/899868

Also, as many may know, the system that is forecast to bring heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain to the Pac NW on Fri/Sat will be hitting the southern Plains (especially TX) on Sat/Sun with bitter cold temps for all of the Plains states (some all-time record lows might be set) and wintry precip possibly all the way to the Gulf Coast (and substantial snow/sleet/ice in parts of the south) - and this is the storm the could bring substantial impacts to this area by late Mon through Tuesday. That will likely require its own thread in a day or so.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2024-february-10-14-2021-days-of-wintry-waves/page/35/
https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Well, the late Saturday/Sunday event has trended drier, with maybe only 0.1-0.2" of liquid equivalent falling with most of that likely being sleet and possibly changing to freezing rain. Both the NWS in Philly and NYC are showing up to 0.1" of ice accretion on surfaces, mostly on Sunday morning and if that forecast holds, advisories will likely be issued, as freezing rain is very dangerous.

Not worth posting the maps at this point, since we're still 36-48 hours away from any possible freezing rain and it's just too difficult to forecast freezing rain this far out, as it requires a very detailed understanding of the temperature and precip profiles across the entire column of air, especially within a few thousand feet of the surface, where one needs a decent above-32F layer a few thousand feet up and a shallow layer of sub-32F air in the bottom several hundred feet or less of the column (too deep of a sub-32F layer near the surface and the falling water droplets freeze into sleet). Very hard to get that right in advance.

The Monday night/Tuesday event is looking juicier and will likely deliver a wide mix of precip types and a more serious ice storm is at least possible with cold air locked in at the surface and warm air aloft - some models are showing 1/4-1/2" of ice. Would much rather see sleet or snow, although most models are showing either sleet or freezing rain (or plain rain) for most, at this time with snow confined to well N/W of the 95 corridor, but at least one model is showing significant snow (and the others have significant snow about 30-50 miles NW of 95), so snow is not off the table yet.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[DJ Spanky]

Well, the late Saturday/Sunday event has trended drier, with maybe only 0.1-0.2" of liquid equivalent falling with most of that likely being sleet and possibly changing to freezing rain. Both the NWS in Philly and NYC are showing up to 0.1" of ice accretion on surfaces, mostly on Sunday morning and if that forecast holds, advisories will likely be issued, as freezing rain is very dangerous.

One of my colleagues down in Virginia is basically gonna shelter in place this weekend. She had planned to go out for her son's birthday, I think they had an event planned, but now have ice and freezing rain forecast for the whole weekend.

 

[RU848789]

Well, the late Saturday/Sunday event has trended drier, with maybe only 0.1-0.2" of liquid equivalent falling with most of that likely being sleet and possibly changing to freezing rain. Both the NWS in Philly and NYC are showing up to 0.1" of ice accretion on surfaces, mostly on Sunday morning and if that forecast holds, advisories will likely be issued, as freezing rain is very dangerous.

Not worth posting the maps at this point, since we're still 36-48 hours away from any possible freezing rain and it's just too difficult to forecast freezing rain this far out, as it requires a very detailed understanding of the temperature and precip profiles across the entire column of air, especially within a few thousand feet of the surface, where one needs a decent above-32F layer a few thousand feet up and a shallow layer of sub-32F air in the bottom several hundred feet or less of the column (too deep of a sub-32F layer near the surface and the falling water droplets freeze into sleet). Very hard to get that right in advance.

The Monday night/Tuesday event is looking juicier and will likely deliver a wide mix of precip types and a more serious ice storm is at least possible with cold air locked in at the surface and warm air aloft - some models are showing 1/4-1/2" of ice. Would much rather see sleet or snow, although most models are showing either sleet or freezing rain (or plain rain) for most, at this time with snow confined to well N/W of the 95 corridor, but at least one model is showing significant snow (and the others have significant snow about 30-50 miles NW of 95), so snow is not off the table yet.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

As I kind of figured the NWS issued advisories for much of their area, at least from Hunterdon/Somerset/Middlesex and southward in NJ (and in adjacent E-PA), for the threat of up to 0.1" of freezing rain accretion for late Sat and early Sunday for the most part (after up to 1" of sleet/snow, but 1" of sleet/snow doesn't warrant the advisory, the freezing rain does). Areas NW and N of there are expected to only get about an inch of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain, hence no advisory. The NWS-NYC hasn't issued advisories yet, but I think they will for NYC/NENJ metro and LI, but maybe not north of there. Ice maps are below.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Atlantic-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-

321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy
roadways, especially Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

 

[Postman_1]

Ugh freezing rain is the worst kind of precipitation IMO. Hopefully its all just rain

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Every map I see this year, you can end up bumping up the totals in NWNJ

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Ugh freezing rain is the worst kind of precipitation IMO. Hopefully its all just rain

Kentucky and parts of Tennessee, WV and Virginia for it bad this week

 

[WhiteBus]

Today's high was just 25 so with a upper warm air mass it's going to be freeze instantly.

 

[Doteman]

Numbers why have you forsaken us?

 

[zappaa]

WTF are we looking at Monday and Tuesday?
Accumulating Freezing rain in Montclair, with its giant tree lined streets and archaic electric delivery from back yard poles means big power outage potential.
Also have a wife and child flying back to Newark on Tuesday????
I watch air disasters regularly, no thanks.

 

[RUJohnny]

Very concerned about today. Almost everyone west of the parkway will stay below freezing today. Hope for.sleet and snow, because if you see raindrops on the window, you'll wind up with your very own skating rink.

 

[WhiteBus]

This is the type of forecast you want your town to overdue it with the salt and brine.

 

[Postman_1]

UGH. Not good!

 

[zappaa]

I live in a snow dump zone, Watching mountains overlook Montclair, and the snow/rain line is always east of us by a smidgen.
In this case it will be frozen precip, not rain

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

A taste of freezing rain tonight

Then the hoses get unleashed mon-tues?

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Why is Dan Zarrow always wrong?

Can he at least get a forecast right 1 our of 10 times?

 

[bac2therac]

Dan zarrow forecasted the freezing rain

 

[bac2therac]

Most models are trending rain for Tuesday and Thursday but models always changed 3-5 days out

 

[RU848789]

As I kind of figured the NWS issued advisories for much of their area, at least from Hunterdon/Somerset/Middlesex and southward in NJ (and in adjacent E-PA), for the threat of up to 0.1" of freezing rain accretion for late Sat and early Sunday for the most part (after up to 1" of sleet/snow, but 1" of sleet/snow doesn't warrant the advisory, the freezing rain does).

Areas NW and N of there are expected to only get about an inch of snow/sleet, but no freezing rain, hence no advisory. The NWS-NYC hasn't issued advisories yet, but I think they will for NYC/NENJ metro and LI, but maybe not north of there. Ice maps are below.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-
Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Ocean-Atlantic-
Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean-Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-
Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-
Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-

321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of
less than one inch and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of
an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy
roadways, especially Saturday evening through Sunday morning.

Not much change in the forecast for later today through Sunday morning, with advisories up for everywhere along/south of 78 in PA/NJ (and including Morris County) and for NYC metro, including Union/Essex/Hudson in NJ, and Long Island. The advisories are up for up to 0.1" of ice accretion from freezing rain with the risks of that freezing rain being greatest along and SE of 95, as more warm air aloft is modeled to be there.

Areas NW of 95 are more likely to get up to 1" of snow/sleet with less chance of freezing rain (up to 0.05" of ice accretion). Also, before this evening most of what will fall will be light snow/sleet, with the likelihood of freezing rain increasing during the late afternoon and evening. I wouldn't expect much impact on treated roads, but residential streets, driveways, sidewalks, porches, etc. could become little skating rinks until temps go above freezing, which will likely occur late Sunday morning for folks along/SE of 95.

Probably time for a separate thread on Tuesday's winter storm, which has a greater risk for sleet/freezing rain than this storm (up to 1/4" on some models for most) and more precip/snow in general, especially well NW of 95 where several inches of snow/sleet are possible (for the Poconos, Sussex and the Hudson Valley); plain rain is also possible for 95 towards the coast.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Freezing rain/Ice is the worst

 

[Southern Gentleman]

It looks like Arkansas is going to get a large dose of NJ weather! The entire state is under a winter storm warning with predicted 6-8 inches of snow added to an already half inch of sleet on the ground.

There might be 4 snowplows in the entire state!

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Historic Winter Invasion, says the Weather Channel

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

It looks like Arkansas is going to get a large dose of NJ weather! The entire state is under a winter storm warning with predicted 6-8 inches of snow added to an already half inch of sleet on the ground.

There might be 4 snowplows in the entire state!

Settle in with a good bottle SG 😃

Doesn't Northern Ark usually get a decent amount of snow?

 

[bac2therac]

Todays system may be sliding to our south if futurecast radar is accurate

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Pacific NW getting a lot of snow, widespread power outages around Portland

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Todays system may be sliding to our south if futurecast radar is accurate

Hope so

But, watching the WC, there is going to be massive amounts of freezing rain from Houston and due points north east through NJ.

Expect a few more mass highway pile ups unfortunately

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Brownsville, TX, first winter storm watch in 10 years.

It borders Mexico