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OT: Significant Icing Risk for NW of 95/N of 78 Mon night/Tues, 2/16; (also info on minor event for 2/13-2/14 w/high uncertainty on freezing rain)

Models havent been accurate in mid range for the last 4 events so i wouldn't even be mentioning snow on Thursday
Mid-range models were superb for 2/1, and were pretty good for 2/7 and 2/11. They were pretty bad for 2/9 and yesterday, which is not unusual, as models struggle more with minor events where a modest error is magnified.

Chances of busting on Tuesday's event are higher than usual, as freezing rain is just so hard to forecast, as one has to get the precip amounts correct, as well as the thermal profiles from the surface to 10,000+ feet up (don't need to get the column temps perfect for snow). And if it busts warm, we might have to worry about temps in the 50s making it inland to 95 and in the 40s for all but maybe Sussex/Poconos, which could mean urban/stream flooding with heavy rain and melting.
 
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Wasn't feeling well last night or this morning, so I didn't get to it; however Proud started one, since he's in the cross hairs of a potentially serious icing event for those N of 78 and especially NW of 287 from 80 to the NY state line and north of 287 in NY. Still a chance of some ice along 95, but it's likely we'll see mostly plain rain, unless the situation changes, which is possible - see the map below and a couple of the 12Z models show some possibility of freezing rain along 95.

@Tango Two - do you want to fold Proud's thread under this one and I can update the title, since we've been discussing the Tuesday threat here for awhile or just keep it as is? No strong opinion either way.

https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/mon-wed-winter-weather-thread.211754/

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@Tango Two or @DJ Spanky - as per above, do you guys want to fold Proud's thread under this one, as there's only a few posts in that thread and a lot in this one, which I've updated the title for. Seems to make sense to reduce clutter, which I know Richie prefers.
 
A 7 day business can not replace a lost day. The surge before or after does not make up for a lost day
I don’t want to belabor this...but I will. Say people binge buy the day before, then others see that the forecast busted and come out anyway on that day. How is that an issue? Now, I’m talking beer stores, not restaurants or entertainment. I get all that.
 
Channel 7 is also pretty bullish on an ice storm for the interior and some icing down to the 95 corridor, before a changeover to rain.

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Mid-range models were superb for 2/1, and were pretty good for 2/7 and 2/11. They were pretty bad for 2/9 and yesterday, which is not unusual, as models struggle more with minor events where a modest error is magnified. Chances of busting on Tuesday's event are higher than usual, as freezing rain is just so hard to forecast, as one has to get the precip amounts correct, as well as the thermal profiles from the surface to 10,000+ feet up (don't need to get the column temps perfect for snow).
In some places yes. In Philly they have been awful for years.
 
Mid-range models were superb for 2/1, and were pretty good for 2/7 and 2/11. They were pretty bad for 2/9 and yesterday, which is not unusual, as models struggle more with minor events where a modest error is magnified. Chances of busting on Tuesday's event are higher than usual, as freezing rain is just so hard to forecast, as one has to get the precip amounts correct, as well as the thermal profiles from the surface to 10,000+ feet up (don't need to get the column temps perfect for snow).


Just some fun. How many band names come out of these threads, esp. #s posts?

I got:

Beautiful Dendrites
Mid-range Models
Thermal Profiles
Hunker Down
Light Glaze
Hillsborough MILFS
Counties in Purple
Boxing Day Blizzard
EDIT:
Arctic Oscillation
donsutherland

Has this been done, already??
 
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Just some fun. How many band names come out of these threads, esp. #s posts?

I got:

Beautiful Dendrites
Mid-range Models
Thermal Profiles
Hunker Down
Light Glaze
Hillsborough MILFS
Counties in Purple
Boxing Day Blizzard

Has this been done, already??

Yeah, on the weather boards, but this is a damn fine list. I'll add a couple...

Bombogenesis (with 2 drummers of course)
Cold Conveyor Belt
European Models
Convective Feedback
Thundersnow (great name for a metal band)
 
Yeah, on the weather boards, but this is a damn fine list. I'll add a couple...

Bombogenesis (with 2 drummers of course)
Cold Conveyor Belt
European Models
Convective Feedback
Thundersnow (great name for a metal band)

There seem to be a lot of "models" -- probably a good thing.
 
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Yeah, on the weather boards, but this is a damn fine list. I'll add a couple...

Bombogenesis (with 2 drummers of course)
Cold Conveyor Belt
European Models
Convective Feedback
Thundersnow (great name for a metal band)
Neg Nao
+PNA
Sheared Mess
Sub forum
 
I'm taking a break from weather trends for at least a little bit. It's just unbelievable here.

Which one of these quotes is on your 2021 BINGO card?

a) I'm done with politics. I'm going Independent!
b) Brady IS the GOAT. He deserved to be rocked off his A$$ for one day, at least.
c) $#%@!&ing COVID!!! Let's GO on these shots. I need to get back to my face-to-face poker games!
d) I'm taking a break from weather trends (threads?) for at least a little bit.
 
Well, tonight's 0Z models (7 pm EST inputs) show a bit less freezing rain for some folks, especially near/along 95, which is definitely the area at greatest risk for a bust, as freezing rain often doesn't verify for the coastal plain during coastal storms with warm air aloft (surface cold air is often modeled too strong). I wouldn't be surprised to see very little freezing rain along and SE of 95, but they'll likely keep the advisories up as most models still show up to 0.05" of freezing rain Monday night for 95 before the rains come (and maybe temps in the 40s/50s for a few hours). However, the models still show substantial freezing rain 15-20 miles NW of 95 and beyond, especially also N of 78. Cold air is harder to dislodge further away from the ocean and sometimes in the valleys.

I'm not a fan of freezing rain, so my interest is much more on the Thursday event, which is trending snowier on all of the global models. In fact, we're about 84 hours from the start of the event, so uncertainty is obviously still high, but we actually have near unanimity on a solid 3-6" event (and 5-8" on the Euro/UK) from every global model for at least most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, as the 2nd system (the one coming ashore and hammering the Pac NW now) is now looking to take a further SE track, bringing less warm air in initally. Some models still show substantial sleet and then rain (1/2" or more of rain) for most after a changeover, while others show mostly snow (especially N of 276/195) If we see similar consensus in tomorrow's models, it'll be thread time.
 
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Well, tonight's 0Z models (7 pm EST inputs) show a bit less freezing rain for some folks, especially near/along 95, which is definitely the area at greatest risk for a bust, as freezing rain often doesn't verify for the coastal plain during coastal storms with warm air aloft (surface cold air is often modeled too strong). I wouldn't be surprised to see very little freezing rain along and SE of 95, but they'll likely keep the advisories up as most models still show up to 0.05" of freezing rain Monday night for 95 before the rains come (and maybe temps in the 40s/50s for a few hours). However, the models still show substantial freezing rain 15-20 miles NW of 95 and beyond, especially also N of 78. Cold air is harder to dislodge further away from the ocean and sometimes in the valleys.

I'm not a fan of freezing rain, so my interest is much more on the Thursday event, which is trending snowier on all of the global models. In fact, we're about 84 hours from the start of the event, so uncertainty is obviously still high, but we actually have near unanimity on a solid 3-6" event (and 5-8" on the Euro/UK) from every global model for at least most of the Philly-NJ-NYC area, as the 2nd system (the one coming ashore and hammering the Pac NW now) is now looking to take a further SE track, bringing less warm air in initally. Some models still show substantial sleet and then rain (1/2" or more of rain) for most after a changeover, while others show mostly snow (especially N of 276/195) If we see similar consensus in tomorrow's models, it'll be thread time.
Will it be safe for me to drive up 287 to Wayne, NJ on route 23 this evening? I'm planning on picking up a new car tonight.
 
Will it be safe for me to drive up 287 to Wayne, NJ on route 23 this evening? I'm planning on picking up a new car tonight.
If the forecast holds true, maybe not. The highways should be good, "should", but it has been hit or miss. The earlier you get up here the better. Where on 23?
 
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Maybe for the coast and even 95, but not for everyone else. NWS just issued ice storm warnings for Monday evening through Tuesday morning for roughly 1/4-1/2" of freezing rain/ice accretion for the counties in purple, from NW Montco/Bucks in PA to Hunterdon/Somerset in NJ and all points NW of there, and issued advisories for counties near/along 95 and for Monmouth/Ocean and for NYC/NENJ/LI for up to 0.1-0.2" of ice. It's possible this forecast will be wrong especially for the advisory counties, which should see mostly rain, but these warnings/advisories were put up now as that's what the NWS sees as likely. Models also show several inches of front end snow on Thursday before a change to rain for most.

Edit - added in the NWS regional ice map...

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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Well, tonight's 0Z models (7 pm EST inputs) show a bit less freezing rain for some folks, especially near/along 95, which is definitely the area at greatest risk for a bust, as freezing rain often doesn't verify for the coastal plain during coastal storms with warm air aloft (surface cold air is often modeled too strong). I wouldn't be surprised to see very little freezing rain along and SE of 95, but they'll likely keep the advisories up as most models still show up to 0.05" of freezing rain Monday night for 95 before the rains come (and maybe temps in the 40s/50s for a few hours). However, the models still show substantial freezing rain 15-20 miles NW of 95 and beyond, especially also N of 78. Cold air is harder to dislodge further away from the ocean and sometimes in the valleys.

Just focusing on tonight, the NWS didn't change any of their advisories or ice storm warnings vs. what they issued yesterday afternoon. However, they noted in the updated map from the NWS-Philly that the forecasted freezing rain along/near 95 is not high confidence, which is what I said after looking at last night's models. Given that the most likely time for freezing rain in this area is between 7 pm and 3 am, the impacts will be lessened and that entire area should be above 32F well before sunrise on Tuesday, with no impact on the morning rush hour, even if some freezing rain falls before then, as it will be melted by the heavy rain.

I'm actually surprised they've kept the ice storm warnings up for Somerset, Hunterdon, and Morris in NJ and NW Chester, NW Montco and NW Bucks in PA, as it's highly doubtful these areas (especially the SE parts of the counties) reach the 0.25" ice storm warning criterion. But we'll see. For Sussex, Warren (and NW Morris), the Lehigh Valley/Poconos and the Hudson Valley, this could be a pretty bad icing situation.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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wiU3dCb.png
 
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If the forecast holds true, maybe not. The highways should be good, "should", but it has been hit or miss. The earlier you get up here the better. Where on 23?
Agree with Spanky here - highways will be treated and fine, but secondary/side roads could be bad, where they're not treated. Not quite the kind of weather I'd want to have for my first ride in a new car. Does it matter if you wait a day?
 
6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing heavily here in Little Rock. Air temperature is now 7 degrees.

let’s play some football!
TWC just reported 10" at the Little Rock airport and it's not quite over. And another 8-12" on the way Wednesday. This is unprecedented stuff, especially with temps staying well below 32F for days - usually when there's snow in the south temps bump back up quickly - not this time. At least it's snow and not freezing rain, like further east, which is much more likely to lead to power losses, which is not good with it being this cold.
 
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Planning on flying to Newark on Friday, reading about snow end of this week...any insight from the experts would be helpful!?
 
6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing heavily here in Little Rock. Air temperature is now 7 degrees.

let’s play some football!
In Hot Springs,it's 13 degrees.No wonder Oaklawn canceled racing.
Still,that beats Minneapolis,registering now at a cool minus 10.
 
Planning on flying to Newark on Friday, reading about snow end of this week...any insight from the experts would be helpful!?
Looking like mostly snow right now with 3-6" for most (not a forecast - it's what the models are showing), but it should be over by 1 am on Friday and it also might end as sleet/rain, if enough warm air comes in. I would think EWR could handle that without more than some delays. Waiting for the UK and Euro and if they confirm the snow, I'll start a thread on it...
 
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Wayne Genesis
The 287/23 intersection is on the side of a mountain (they blew the side off to put in 287 in the mid 90's), so it is exposed and has a lot of bridges. Be careful around that intersection, particularly when you return north on 23 to catch 287 south.
 
Just focusing on tonight, the NWS didn't change any of their advisories or ice storm warnings vs. what they issued yesterday afternoon. However, they noted in the updated map from the NWS-Philly that the forecasted freezing rain along/near 95 is not high confidence, which is what I said after looking at last night's models. Given that the most likely time for freezing rain in this area is between 7 pm and 3 am, the impacts will be lessened and that entire area should be above 32F well before sunrise on Tuesday, with no impact on the morning rush hour, even if some freezing rain falls before then, as it will be melted by the heavy rain.

I'm actually surprised they've kept the ice storm warnings up for Somerset, Hunterdon, and Morris in NJ and NW Chester, NW Montco and NW Bucks in PA, as it's highly doubtful these areas (especially the SE parts of the counties) reach the 0.25" ice storm warning criterion. But we'll see. For Sussex, Warren (and NW Morris), the Lehigh Valley/Poconos and the Hudson Valley, this could be a pretty bad icing situation.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

6ICoyPP.png


wiU3dCb.png
If most of the 12Z (7 am EST data inputs) models (not all) which just came out are right, it's "Ice Storm Cancel" time for everyone except far NW locations, like the Poconos and NW Sussex and Orange Cty NY and NW of there, as they're all showing temps warming up faster and further than they showed yesterday or last night, meaning less freezing rain. At the very least I'd be surprised if the advisories stay up for the 95 corridor counties and maybe the ice storm warnings move to advisories for the NW areas.
 
If most of the 12Z (7 am EST data inputs) models (not all) which just came out are right, it's "Ice Storm Cancel" time for everyone except far NW locations, like the Poconos and NW Sussex and Orange Cty NY and NW of there, as they're all showing temps warming up faster and further than they showed yesterday or last night, meaning less freezing rain. At the very least I'd be surprised if the advisories stay up for the 95 corridor counties and maybe the ice storm warnings move to advisories for the NW areas.

I'm fine with Port Jervis getting it rather than Sussex
 
The 287/23 intersection is on the side of a mountain (they blew the side off to put in 287 in the mid 90's), so it is exposed and has a lot of bridges. Be careful around that intersection, particularly when you return north on 23 to catch 287 south.
Thanks. Appreciate the intel. Lots of jug handles there to get onto 80 and 287 so I’ll take my time.
 
Looks like 11 inches will be the official total today. Another 8-10 on Wednesday is expected.

I guarantee that Arkansans are clueless about how to act with that much snow! I know I am one of those.

Our 1940’s snowplow is going to get a workout this week.

My liver may not be up to this!
 
Looks like 11 inches will be the official total today. Another 8-10 on Wednesday is expected.

I guarantee that Arkansans are clueless about how to act with that much snow! I know I am one of those.

Our 1940’s snowplow is going to get a workout this week.

My liver may not be up to this!
That's a lot of snow for us too!
 
Looks like 11 inches will be the official total today. Another 8-10 on Wednesday is expected.

I guarantee that Arkansans are clueless about how to act with that much snow! I know I am one of those.

Our 1940’s snowplow is going to get a workout this week.

My liver may not be up to this!
That much snow is almost unheard of, but even more rare is the depth/length of the cold. LR has been below 32F since last Wednesday and that's expected to continue through this Friday, which is 10 days, which someone on TWC said would tie the all-time record (Sat might be above freezing). Should be in the 50s to near 60F starting Monday through next week, though.
 
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