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OT: Significant Winter Storm 2/27-28 (esp along/N of 78); and update on Fri storm (p. 6)

RU848789

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Surprised nobody posted about this yet, so here you go. In this lousy winter for snow lovers, even the chance of a dusting to 1/2" of snow, tomorrow, is noteworthy, plus there's the chance of more substantial wintry weather, especially N of 78, on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

For tomorrow, there are two weak systems approaching, one a clipper style system from the NW and one a disorganized coastal low and both of them could produce snow showers/light snow during the day tomorrow, with the first one possibly affecting areas NW of 95, including NYC, and the second one possibly affecting SNJ, the Jersey Shore and LI. We're only talking about a dusting to maybe 1/2" of snow during the day, as per the NWS map below (with a couple of models showing some places maybe getting up to 1"), but in a winter with <1/2" of snow so far for most people along and SE of the 95 corridor (and not much more even well NW of 95) this is worth a mention, IMO. The "hole" in the snowfall map below is the area where neither system might have much impact.

For the Mon/Tues system, we'll have a storm approaching from the midwest bringing moisture to our area from the SW with some (but not a lot) cold air in place, so the precip could start as snow even as far south as 195/276, but will likely change to rain fairly quickly up to about 78, as warm air moves in off the ocean with formation of a secondary coastal low, with small accumulations possible south of 78. However, for areas N of 78, most models are showing at least a few inches of snow/sleet before a changeover to rain with significant snowfall (4" or more) possible north of 80. For areas that see mostly rain, up to 1" could fall.

This system could be much wetter if the primary low to our west/NW remains dominant and it could be whiter if the secondary coastal low becomes stronger, but we won't know how that plays out for another day or two, probably, as we're still 3-4 days out. Still, just the chance of some more snow in this winter is worth discussing, as February is just about over and we realistically only have about 3-4 more weeks of potential snow, as we don't usually get much snow after about 3/20.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

e4ChX4r.png
 
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Surprised nobody posted about this yet, so here you go. In this lousy winter for snow lovers, even the chance of a dusting to 1/2" of snow, tomorrow, is noteworthy, plus there's the chance of more substantial wintry weather, especially N of 78, on Monday night/Tuesday morning.

For tomorrow, there are two weak systems approaching, one a clipper style system from the NW and one a disorganized coastal low and both of them could produce snow showers/light snow during the day tomorrow, with the first one possibly affecting areas NW of 95, including NYC, and the second one possibly affecting SNJ, the Jersey Shore and LI. We're only talking about a dusting to maybe 1/2" of snow during the day, as per the NWS map below (with a couple of models showing some places maybe getting up to 1"), but in a winter with <1/2" of snow so far for most people along and SE of the 95 corridor (and not much more even well NW of 95) this is worth a mention, IMO. The "hole" in the snowfall map below is the area where neither system might have much impact.

For the Mon/Tues system, we'll have a storm approaching from the midwest bringing moisture to our area from the SW with some (but not a lot) cold air in place, so the precip could start as snow even as far south as 195/276, but will likely change to rain fairly quickly up to about 78, as warm air moves in off the ocean with formation of a secondary coastal low, with small accumulations possible south of 78. However, for areas N of 78, most models are showing at least a few inches of snow/sleet before a changeover to rain with significant snowfall (4" or more) possible north of 80. For areas that see mostly rain, up to 1" could fall.

This system could be much wetter if the primary low to our west/NW remains dominant and it could be whiter if the secondary coastal low becomes stronger, but we won't know how that plays out for another day or two, probably, as we're still 3-4 days out. Still, just the chance of some more snow in this winter is worth discussing, as February is just about over and we realistically only have about 3-4 more weeks of potential snow, as we don't usually get much snow after about 3/20.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

e4ChX4r.png
Really scrapping the bottom of the barrel with this one. :)
 
Thanks Numbers! I was seeing some stuff about this.

The usual losers are out I see. Such pathetic people.
In. Their. Heads. Kind of pathetic that it's a big Friday night for them to send out the bat signal so they can troll a pretty trivial weather thread. Whatever.

Back to the weather, the models are showing a bit more consensus on a coating to 1/2" for most of the area tomorrow between about noon and early evening. Mood flakes would be nice and this would be the kind of snow that would be unlikely to accumulate on paved surfaces, given light precip rates and the higher sun angle likely meaning only grass/colder surfaces for accumulation.
 
I mean I am a snow person but that is a lot of typing for an insignificant event. I'll be in VT skiing all week so bring it on!
If we had our normal ~20" of snow by now, I would never start a thread on <1" of snow, but 1/4-1/2" of snow doubles the seasonal snowfall, to date for most folks. The Mon/Tues threat has legs for a few inches of snow along/N of 78 from Allentown to NYC, with some models showing an inch or two before the changeover to rain from about Trenton to Sandy Hook...and along/N of 80, several inches are possible with little to no rain. We'll see...
 
Thanks, Numbers.

I don’t have the time or inclination to study meteorology. I appreciate that you do and come here to explain the whats and whys. I can get “50% chance of 1-3 inches of snow” forecasts from an app.
 
Mocking and laughing isn’t hatred.

Your takes are as wrong as NimberSans weather threads and corresponding pornhub fetish links.

Nothing wrong with Asian chicks. I rather like them. I mean, if it was legal and proper to keep sex slaves, I'd probably have an Asian chick. You're feelin' me, I know it.
 
5-8 inches forecast for the Mount Olive area on Monday night. Praying that the forecast is wrong! Hoping for some global warming to invade the area.
 
Many folks along and N of 80 in PA, NJ and NY have gotten 1/2" to up to 1+" (1.5" reported at Vernon Valley) and lots of folks in SE PA/SNJ seeing at least a dusting. Not much in CNJ yet - just some flurries here - and that might be it.

Today's 12Z models still showing a split for the Mon/Tues system, with some (Euro, CMC) showing 1-2" down to 276/195 and up to 3-4" along 78 and even 5-6 along and N of 80, while others (GFS/NAM) are showing 1" or less along 78 and nada south of the Raritan, but 2-4" along/N of 80 (and the UK is between those two camps).

So nowhere near a consensus, other than at least a few inches of snow along/N of 80. The system is expected to bring 0.5-0.8" of total liquid equivalent in precip, meaning anywhere that gets 100% snow could get 5-8" of snow and areas that only get an inch or so of snow will likely then get at least 1/2" of rain, washing that snow away.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58901-22823-storm-threat/page/2/#comment-6842115
 
5-8 inches forecast for the Mount Olive area on Monday night. Praying that the forecast is wrong! Hoping for some global warming to invade the area.
Haven't seen any forecasts for that much in Mount Olive - care to share the source? NWS is not bullish on this one, talking about a few inches just south of 80, although some models do show 5-6".
 
Huge snowfalls out west again in CA with parts of the Sierras getting 5-7' through today and 2-5 feet of snow above about 4000 feet in the mountains inland of LA/SD, with a few more feet coming through Wednesday. Much of the Rockies will also do well.

The really unusual element with this storm was in the SF area (and coastal areas in CA in general), where they had the historic low elevetion snowfall with accumulating snow in the Bay Area down to about 300', which is not quite a record as SF has had two measurable snowfalls in the last 130+ years with 3.7" close to sea level in 1887. Similarly, snowfall levels have been down to 1000' in SoCal with flooding rains at the lower elevations in much of CA.

https://www.wunderground.com/.../how-rare-snowfall-sea...

https://www.weather.gov/
 
Many folks along and N of 80 in PA, NJ and NY have gotten 1/2" to up to 1+" (1.5" reported at Vernon Valley) and lots of folks in SE PA/SNJ seeing at least a dusting. Not much in CNJ yet - just some flurries here - and that might be it.

Today's 12Z models still showing a split for the Mon/Tues system, with some (Euro, CMC) showing 1-2" down to 276/195 and up to 3-4" along 78 and even 5-6 along and N of 80, while others (GFS/NAM) are showing 1" or less along 78 and nada south of the Raritan, but 2-4" along/N of 80 (and the UK is between those two camps).

So nowhere near a consensus, other than at least a few inches of snow along/N of 80. The system is expected to bring 0.5-0.8" of total liquid equivalent in precip, meaning anywhere that gets 100% snow could get 5-8" of snow and areas that only get an inch or so of snow will likely then get at least 1/2" of rain, washing that snow away.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58901-22823-storm-threat/page/2/#comment-6842115

For Mon/Tues, the NWS is still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a bit snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense; they're still showing a bit less than the model blend of the major models.

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg


StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg
 
Haven't seen any forecasts for that much in Mount Olive - care to share the source? NWS is not bullish on this one, talking about a few inches just south of 80, although some models do show 5-6".
Weather.com for Monday night
 
What resort you heading to?
We base out of Okemo since our friends have a slope side condo we rent from them. We ski Mount Snow on the way up and ski Killington at least one day (since it’s 20 minutes from Okemo). I love Okemo mid week since it’s mostly Blues for my wife (with enough Blacks to keep me happy). Looks like it will snow Tuesday and Thursday. I try to hit Stratton on the way back. At least 5 days of skiing minimum. My legs will be shot a week from now. 😃
 
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For Mon/Tues, the NWS is still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a bit snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense; they're still showing a bit less than the model blend of the major models.

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg


StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg
Flying in to EWR ETA 1145 pm Monday.
Likelihood of problems?
Thanks.
 
Huge snowfalls out west again in CA with parts of the Sierras getting 5-7' through today and 2-5 feet of snow above about 4000 feet in the mountains inland of LA/SD, with a few more feet coming through Wednesday. Much of the Rockies will also do well.

The really unusual element with this storm was in the SF area (and coastal areas in CA in general), where they had the historic low elevetion snowfall with accumulating snow in the Bay Area down to about 300', which is not quite a record as SF has had two measurable snowfalls in the last 130+ years with 3.7" close to sea level in 1887. Similarly, snowfall levels have been down to 1000' in SoCal with flooding rains at the lower elevations in much of CA.

https://www.wunderground.com/.../how-rare-snowfall-sea...

https://www.weather.gov/
It was 68 degrees in Sedona. Just glorious for mountain bike riding
 
Monday could be interesting. Models trending colder. Could be first plowable snow for much of the area if trends continue.
 
What’s hilarious is that @RU848789 effectively ignored the wanna-be mean girls clique in this thread, so now they’re falling all over themselves trying to provoke him. Their desperation is palpable. 🤣

Why would they choose to let him dominate them that way? Weird. And humiliating for them.
 
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