OT: Significant Winter Storm Likely on Thursday (2/18)

RW90

All American
Feb 2, 2002
5,443
3,666
113
And this one:

DS5UndM.jpg
Communist!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jm0513

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
Are we officially over this snow cycle we’ve been stuck in over the past few weeks?
Kind of out of the pattern, although some of today's models are now showing measurable snow (1-2") along 95 on Monday with 2-4" NW of 95 and especially N of 78, although some are showing only decent snow NW of 95 and N of 78. Models had been showing just rain for most with snow well N/W of 95 a couple of days ago, but now it's a close call.

Keep in mind that I started this thread about 3 days before the event, because 36 hours earlier and especially 48+ hours earlier, the models were showing yesterday's event as a warm rainstorm for everyone with a low track west of the Apps. There's often, but not always (1/31 and 12/16 were locked in on major snow from 5-6 days out, at least) significant movement (like 100-200 miles) on the models between days 5 and 3.

Whether we stay in more of a progressive west-to-east pattern without much cold air is an open question - some of the longer term models suggest we might return to the current pattern in 2 weeks or so, which could make for a cold and possibly snowy March. Still up in the air on that.
 

DJ Spanky

The Lunatic is in my Head
Moderator
Jul 25, 2001
51,345
20,325
113
Still snowing here too. Looks like we've got another ½ inch since this morning.
 

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
I actually like snow. Just not too much😀 This is way too much.
Where do you live? This 1" today brought me to 41" for the season, way above the ~27" NB/NYC (they're very close) average for a season, and brings 50" into possible range, like 2014-15 and 2017-18 (both had exactly 50.8"), if we get a snowier than normal March (~6" normally). And if we just happened to get a 2017-18 March (27"), we'd have the 2nd most snow ever (at least for the last 150 years) for NB/NYC. NYC's 2nd most ever was 63" in 47-48; 95-96 was #1 with 75.6".
 

jtung230

All American
Jun 30, 2005
8,865
4,812
113
Where do you live? This 1" today brought me to 41" for the season, way above the ~27" NB/NYC (they're very close) average for a season, and brings 50" into possible range, like 2014-15 and 2017-18 (both had exactly 50.8"), if we get a snowier than normal March (~6" normally). And if we just happened to get a 2017-18 March (27"), we'd have the 2nd most snow ever (at least for the last 150 years) for NB/NYC. NYC's 2nd most ever was 63" in 47-48; 95-96 was #1 with 75.6".
in Summit. Still coming down.
 

knightfan7

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 31, 2003
50,887
44,845
113
Manasquan, NJ
Yeah, you probably have 50" up at 400' eleveation and inland.

By the way, one last band of accumulating snow is about to hit much of CNJ (and my house) - some could get a quick 1/2-1" from this.

inxr1Kphla_h.gif

Ok. It was fun for a while but no more of this #s. I finally had the chance yesterday to use my snow blower which had been gathering dust for 2 years. The novelty has worn off. Make it go away.
 

Postman_1

Senior
Gold Member
Mar 12, 2017
1,191
1,493
113
Still coming down in Hamilton but it seems like more melting then anything else. I'll take that.
 

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
Yeah, you probably have 50" up at 400' eleveation and inland.

By the way, one last band of accumulating snow is about to hit much of CNJ (and my house) - some could get a quick 1/2-1" from this.

inxr1Kphla_h.gif

That band ended up moving more west to east than SW to NE, so we only got maybe 10-15 min of moderate snow - picked up another 1/4" though, so we're at 1.25" today and 5.25" for the "event" (assuming it's all one event). One last band about to move through - maybe another 1/4" at most, especially now that the sun is down. Snow should be over in NJ within the next hour or so.
 

Ronnie_B

All American
Gold Member
Dec 30, 2011
6,151
5,384
113
Where do you live? This 1" today brought me to 41" for the season, way above the ~27" NB/NYC (they're very close) average for a season, and brings 50" into possible range, like 2014-15 and 2017-18 (both had exactly 50.8"), if we get a snowier than normal March (~6" normally). And if we just happened to get a 2017-18 March (27"), we'd have the 2nd most snow ever (at least for the last 150 years) for NB/NYC. NYC's 2nd most ever was 63" in 47-48; 95-96 was #1 with 75.6".
Where do you go to find the totals for each town/city?
 

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
That band ended up moving more west to east than SW to NE, so we only got maybe 10-15 min of moderate snow - picked up another 1/4" though, so we're at 1.25" today and 5.25" for the "event" (assuming it's all one event). One last band about to move through - maybe another 1/4" at most, especially now that the sun is down. Snow should be over in NJ within the next hour or so.
Holy crap, I stayed outside for almost all of this last band, as it was just stunningly gorgeous - not to get maudlin about it, but at my age you never know when it'll be your last storm, lol. Not the heaviest snow I've ever seen, visibility/intensity-wise, but some of the most beautiful, feathery, cotton-candiest dendrites I've ever seen, with most 1/2-3/4" across and some even up to 1" across and they nestled so pefectly together on top of the snow and whitened up every surface including all the trees (and paved surfaces, so be careful, although it only took 5 minutes to broom it away).

We got another 1/2" over about 30 minutes, bringing my total today to 1.75" and my storm total to 5.75". A perfect ending to a great storm - and yes, this is the last of it for CNJ and should be over down the shore in the next 30-45 minutes and it might be even more snow down there, i.e., I could see some picking up 3/4" from this band. Seasonal total now up to 41.75".
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jm0513

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
I meant totals for the whole winter, not just for any one storm.

For each NWS office (there are dozens), there are usually 7-10 locations of record, for which each office keeps seasonal data, including snowfall to date for the season (which starts on July 1st) vs. normal snowfall to that date for the season. Maybe someone out there aggregates these data, but I haven't seen it and have asked people who would know - meaning one has to find the info one city at a time. Go to the link below (for NWS-Philly - every office has a page like this), click on the "observed weather" tab, then select the "daily climate report" radio button, then click on the desired location/city (for the NWS-Philly, there are 8 choices), then click "go" and you'll get a report like this:

LK97ilt.png


https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=phi
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ronnie_B

Ronnie_B

All American
Gold Member
Dec 30, 2011
6,151
5,384
113
For each NWS office (there are dozens), there are usually 7-10 locations of record, for which each office keeps seasonal data, including snowfall to date for the season (which starts on July 1st) vs. normal snowfall to that date for the season. Maybe someone out there aggregates these data, but I haven't seen it and have asked people who would know - meaning one has to find the info one city at a time. Go to the link below (for NWS-Philly - every office has a page like this), click on the "observed weather" tab, then select the "daily climate report" radio button, then click on the desired location/city (for the NWS-Philly, there are 8 choices), then click "go" and you'll get a report like this:

LK97ilt.png


https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=phi
Thanks!
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU848789

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
Chance of accumulating snow tomorrow morning/afternoon, especially well NW of 95 and N of 78. Probably an inch or less for the 95 corridor with temps warming above 32F and the indirect late Feb sun. Will start a thread, since we have quite a few folks on this board who live in the areas above who might not know they likely have a few inches of snow coming tomorrow.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MadRU

mildone

Hall of Famer
Dec 19, 2011
40,035
37,587
113
Chance of accumulating snow tomorrow morning/afternoon, especially well NW of 95 and N of 78. Probably an inch or less for the 95 corridor with temps warming above 32F and the indirect late Feb sun. Will start a thread, since we have quite a few folks on this board who live in the areas above who might not know they likely have a few inches of snow coming tomorrow.
I suppose this might impact my tentative plan to take a long drive on Wednesday. The temps will be slightly over 45 down here, which I need, but right around 45 to our Northwest, where there will likely be a lot of wet pavement from melting snow. Too close for comfort, I guess.

Crap. 😡
 

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
I suppose this might impact my tentative plan to take a long drive on Wednesday. The temps will be slightly over 45 down here, which I need, but right around 45 to our Northwest, where there will likely be a lot of wet pavement from melting snow. Too close for comfort, I guess.

Crap. 😡
If you want dry conditions to the NW, you might need to wait until April, lol - there's 3" of liquid equivalent in the snowpack there (~30" worth of snow) that will take at least a couple of weeks to melt at projected temps.
 

mildone

Hall of Famer
Dec 19, 2011
40,035
37,587
113
If you want dry conditions to the NW, you might need to wait until April, lol - there's 3" of liquid equivalent in the snowpack there (~30" worth of snow) that will take at least a couple of weeks to melt at projected temps.
Now showing as high as 49F in Long Valley on Wed. That is warm enough to not be as concerned about wet roads, long as there’s no ice/snow on them by around noon.
 

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
really???? after 3 of 4 busts for you...you touted Tuesday well in advance and omg most did not get one drop of frozen
Serious question for you. You clearly think it's silly to post weather threads more than a few days in advance, due to the higher uncertainty further out, even though sometimes models can do decently even 5-6 days out, especially for a major winter storm. And as we get closer to the event, you tend to trash the models as being horrible when that forecast changes instead of realizing that it's an imperfect science and the situation can change.

Given that, why in the hell do you do your bracketology threads? Clearly, they're not particularly accurate too far in advance, as not enough is known yet. And the analysis/predictions keep changing as we learn more info, as we get closer to the event, but that's ok in bracketology, but not in meteorology.

Given how similar weather forecasting and NCAA tournament forecasting are, why do you get so ornery in the weather threads at times? Would you appreciate it if I called "bust" on all the predictions that end up being wrong, especially from the early bracketology posts and even called your final predictions "busts" because you got a few wrong, even though you do a great job with the vast majority of your picks?

Seems kind of petty when one looks at it this way, at least to me, especially when the nitpicking and trolling simply derail the threads and make them less useful and enjoyable. I could make the bracketology threads miserable for you and everyone else, but I won't, as I actually enjoy them. I just wish you'd show the same respect for these threads - and that doesn't mean not challenging a forecast or pointing out where it went wrong afterwards, as that's completely fair game, but it means not making posts like a few on the first page of this thread and other threads and keeping it to the kind of posts you had from page 2 on, which were helpful to the thread. T is beyond hope, but I'm hoping you'll consider it. Thanks.

And by the way, I've only started two winter weather threads more than 3 days in advance this winter and both (12/16 and 2/1, both started about 5 days in advance, due to unusually strong consensus on a major winter storm that far out) panned out pretty well from a big picture perspective of getting pretty significant winter storms for just about everyone.
 

RU848789

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 27, 2001
50,136
25,211
113
Metuchen, NJ
Now showing as high as 49F in Long Valley on Wed. That is warm enough to not be as concerned about wet roads, long as there’s no ice/snow on them by around noon.
Ok, I thought you didn't want to be on wet roads at all; if it's icy you're worried about, you could probably drive on any roads in the area after about 11 am or so, as any ice would melt by then.
 

bac2therac

Legend
Gold Member
Jul 30, 2001
158,784
61,714
113
51
Belle Mead NJ
Serious question for you. You clearly think it's silly to post weather threads more than a few days in advance, due to the higher uncertainty further out, even though sometimes models can do decently even 5-6 days out, especially for a major winter storm. And as we get closer to the event, you tend to trash the models as being horrible when that forecast changes instead of realizing that it's an imperfect science and the situation can change.

Given that, why in the hell do you do your bracketology threads? Clearly, they're not particularly accurate too far in advance, as not enough is known yet. And the analysis/predictions keep changing as we learn more info, as we get closer to the event, but that's ok in bracketology, but not in meteorology.

Given how similar weather forecasting and NCAA tournament forecasting are, why do you get so ornery in the weather threads at times? Would you appreciate it if I called "bust" on all the predictions that end up being wrong, especially from the early bracketology posts and even called your final predictions "busts" because you got a few wrong, even though you do a great job with the vast majority of your picks?

Seems kind of petty when one looks at it this way, at least to me, especially when the nitpicking and trolling simply derail the threads and make them less useful and enjoyable. I could make the bracketology threads miserable for you and everyone else, but I won't, as I actually enjoy them. I just wish you'd show the same respect for these threads - and that doesn't mean not challenging a forecast or pointing out where it went wrong afterwards, as that's completely fair game, but it means not making posts like a few on the first page of this thread and other threads and keeping it to the kind of posts you had from page 2 on, which were helpful to the thread. T is beyond hope, but I'm hoping you'll consider it. Thanks.

And by the way, I've only started two winter weather threads more than 3 days in advance this winter and both (12/16 and 2/1, both started about 5 days in advance, due to unusually strong consensus on a major winter storm that far out) panned out pretty well from a big picture perspective of getting pretty significant winter storms for just about everyone.

Unhinged
 
  • Haha
Reactions: T2Kplus20

mildone

Hall of Famer
Dec 19, 2011
40,035
37,587
113
Ok, I thought you didn't want to be on wet roads at all; if it's icy you're worried about, you could probably drive on any roads in the area after about 11 am or so, as any ice would melt by then.
It’s any kind of wetness if temps get below 40. It all depends on the temps.

I didn’t swap on my winter tires this winter, so I’m still on summer high performance tires. As great as they are in warm weather, their performance goes downhill fast starting at 45 on down.

Still okay on dry pavement, and manageable down to 40 on wet pavement. But much colder and/or wet it becomes downright dangerous. Would have to creep around which pretty much renders the whole exercise pointless.

Lots of stories in car forums about people driving in freezing temps on summer tires sliding off the road even in gentle turns. Guy I know from Novita wrecked his new (to him) Camaro ZL1 1LE up near Chester in exactly that circumstance.
 

DJ Spanky

The Lunatic is in my Head
Moderator
Jul 25, 2001
51,345
20,325
113
I didn’t swap on my winter tires this winter, so I’m still on summer high performance tires. As great as they are in warm weather, their performance goes downhill fast starting at 45 on down.
Their performance goes downhill the moment it does get wet.